2026 Midterms Prediction Markets

The single highest-stakes midterm market — four outcomes covering who controls the Senate and House after November. Each contract pays $1 if the exact combo resolves true. Republican Hold + Republican Hold currently prices as the heaviest book; Democratic flips are the long-tail opportunity.

All 33 Class 2 Senate seats on the ballot in November 2026, sorted by how close the market is to 50/50 — the most contested races first. A tight spread (40¢/60¢ or closer) signals a genuinely two-way race where the market hasn’t found consensus. That’s where the edge lives.

Seat-by-seat distributions for Republican and Democratic House totals after the 2026 election. Compare these against aggregated polling models — divergences between the market and the models are your signal. These markets aggregate 435 individual district outcomes into chamber-level probabilities.

The 66 most competitive House districts on Kalshi — sorted by how close the current pricing is to a coin flip. Most of these are genuine swing seats in Arizona, California, New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia. Incumbency, presidential approval, and national environment all flow through these prices in real time.