Balance of Power
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
D-House, D-Senate48¢OI 1480kD-House, R-Senate37¢OI 1145kR-House, R-Senate16¢OI 3030kR-House, D-Senate2¢OI 1633k
11661k contracts traded · 7288k open
MIDTERMS 2026Live · updated hourly124 tradeable contracts
2026 Midterms Prediction Markets
Every real-money midterm market in one place — 34 Senate races (plus Louisiana, no market yet), 66 competitive House districts, chamber seat count distributions, and the balance of power combo. Kalshi prices are CFTC-regulated. Polymarket prices shown for cross-platform comparison where available.
Updated Sep 7, 5:23 AM UTC
Featured Races
Tossups (35–65¢)
Open interestTop Senate by Open Interest
Contracts openMost Traded (24h)
Contracts 24hMarquee Toss-Up
55¢
Bobby Pulido
47¢
Monica De La Cruz
Featured Race · TX-15 · The Tightest Board
Bobby Pulido vs. Monica De La Cruz
TX-15 House winner? (2026)
Bobby Pulido leads at 55¢ — the highest-volume race the market still can’t call. When the leading price sits this close to a coin flip on real money, that’s where the edge lives.
1.7M contracts traded·1.2M open
Trade on Kalshi →Every Seat, Every Market — Coverage Map
50 states · click any tileThe honest map nobody else builds: every Senate seat and every House seat accounted for, flagged by whether a real market exists — live, thin, no market yet, or not up for grabs in 2026. Toggle Senate / House, hover for a summary, click a state for the full race detail and live Kalshi prices.
Markets vs Pundits
Full board →Balance of Power
4 combo contracts · Kalshi + PolymarketThe single highest-stakes midterm market — four outcomes covering who controls the Senate and House after November. Each contract pays $1 if the exact combo resolves true. The Kalshi book sits beside the Polymarket combos below so you can read the cross-platform spread at a glance.
Trade →
Polymarket · Balance of Power
Trade on Polymarket →D Senate, D House52¢
D Senate, R House1¢
R Senate, D House36¢
R Senate, R House12¢
Polymarket chamber control
Polymarket · Senate Control
Democrat52¢
Republican50¢
Polymarket · House Control
Democrat88¢
Republican14¢
2026 Senate Races — State by State
14 of 34 with live prices · Full Senate board →Every Class 2 Senate seat on the ballot in November 2026, plus the Ohio and Florida specials — sorted by how close the market is to 50/50, the most contested races first. A tight spread (40¢/60¢ or closer) signals a genuinely two-way race where the market hasn’t found consensus. That’s where the edge lives.
AK Senate
Alaska Senate winner? (2026)
844k contracts traded · 466k open
KS Senate
Kansas Senate winner? (2026)
565k contracts traded · 400k open
NC Senate
North Carolina Senate winner? (2026)
1947k contracts traded · 1750k open
GA Senate
Georgia Senate winner? (2026)
1222k contracts traded · 823k open
AR Senate
Arkansas Senate winner? (2026)
80k contracts traded · 56k open
MS Senate
Mississippi Senate winner? (2026)
111k contracts traded · 96k open
ID Senate
Idaho Senate winner? (2026)
95k contracts traded · 54k open
AL Senate
Alabama Senate winner? (2026)
9.1k contracts traded · 6.0k open
CO Senate
Colorado Senate winner? (2026)
17k contracts traded · 11k open
DE Senate
Delaware Senate winner? (2026)
10.0k contracts traded · 7.7k open
MA Senate
Massachusetts Senate winner? (2026)
9.1k contracts traded · 8.3k open
OR Senate
Oregon Senate winner? (2026)
7.3k contracts traded · 5.5k open
Show all 22 more Senate racesShow fewer
VA Senate
Virginia Senate winner? (2026)
23k contracts traded · 11k open
WV Senate
West Virginia Senate winner? (2026)
21k contracts traded · 15k open
FL Senate (Special)Thin market
Rating: Likely R
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
IA SenateThin market
Rating: Likely R
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
IL SenateThin market
Rating: Safe D
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
KY SenateThin market
Rating: Safe R
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
ME SenateThin market
Rating: Lean D
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
MI SenateThin market
Rating: Lean D
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
MN SenateThin market
Rating: Safe D
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
MT SenateThin market
Rating: Safe R
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
NE SenateThin market
Rating: Lean R
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
NH SenateThin market
Rating: Lean D
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
NJ SenateThin market
Rating: Safe D
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
NM SenateThin market
Rating: Safe D
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
OH Senate (Special)Thin market
Rating: Toss-up
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
OK SenateThin market
Rating: Safe R
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
RI SenateThin market
Rating: Safe D
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
SC SenateThin market
Rating: Likely R
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
SD SenateThin market
Rating: Safe R
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
TN SenateThin market
Rating: Safe R
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
TX SenateThin market
Rating: Toss-up
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
WY SenateThin market
Rating: Safe R
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
2026 Governor Races
1 of 5 with live pricesThe governor contracts Kalshi prices for November 2026. California is the largest 2026 race on the board by traded volume — a reminder that the biggest market is not always the closest one. Michigan’s is the one race also quoted as a Senate-and-Governor combination contract.
CA Gov
California Governor winner? (2026)
1335k contracts traded · 687k open
IA GovThin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
ME GovThin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
MI GovThin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
OH GovThin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
Seat Count Distributions
Kalshi seat-count laddersRather than a simple binary, these markets let you position on the exact seat count each party holds after January 2027. Strikes run low-to-high — the distribution shape tells you where the market sees the realistic ceiling and floor, and divergences from the polling models are your signal.
D Senate Seats
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 Midterms?
2506k contracts traded · 1846k open
R House Seats
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the 2026 Midterms?
Below 19323¢193-19712¢198-20215¢203-20716¢208-21212¢213-21711¢218-2227¢223-2275¢228-2322¢233-2372¢Above 2374¢
2666k contracts traded · 1832k open
D House Seats
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 Midterms?
Below 2107¢210-2136¢214-2175¢218-2217¢222-22510¢226-22912¢230-23313¢234-23712¢238-2419¢242-2457¢246-2495¢Above 24910¢
1664k contracts traded · 1254k open
R Lose Majority Early
Will Republicans lose the House majority before the midterms?
51k contracts traded · 15k open
2026 House District Races
24 of 66 with live prices · Full House board + redistricting →The most competitive House districts on Kalshi — sorted by how close the current pricing is to a coin flip. Most are genuine swing seats in Arizona, California, New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia. Incumbency, presidential approval, and the national environment all flow through these prices in real time.
TX-15
TX-15 House winner? (2026)
1691k contracts traded · 1153k open
NC-01
NC-01 House winner? (2026)
57k contracts traded · 40k open
MT-01
MT-01 House winner? (2026)
32k contracts traded · 17k open
PA-08
PA-08 House winner? (2026)
23k contracts traded · 15k open
NY-17
NY-17 House winner? (2026)
59k contracts traded · 44k open
OH-09
OH-09 House winner? (2026)
41k contracts traded · 24k open
WI-01
WI-01 House winner? (2026)
21k contracts traded · 14k open
IA-03
IA-03 House winner? (2026)
23k contracts traded · 12k open
PA-07
PA-07 House winner? (2026)
158k contracts traded · 87k open
VA-02
VA-02 House winner? (2026)
61k contracts traded · 22k open
NJ-07
NJ-07 House winner? (2026)
37k contracts traded · 23k open
TX-28
TX-28 House winner? (2026)
56k contracts traded · 34k open
Show all 54 more House districtsShow fewer
CA-22
CA-22 House winner? (2026)
59k contracts traded · 32k open
OH-01
OH-01 House winner? (2026)
13k contracts traded · 7.1k open
NM-02
NM-02 House winner? (2026)
24k contracts traded · 15k open
NE-02
NE-02 House winner? (2026)
64k contracts traded · 47k open
CA-13
CA-13 House winner? (2026)
23k contracts traded · 10k open
MI-03
MI-03 House winner? (2026)
6.8k contracts traded · 4.3k open
NV-04
NV-04 House winner? (2026)
5.1k contracts traded · 2.9k open
NY-04
NY-04 House winner? (2026)
12k contracts traded · 7.5k open
CA-47
CA-47 House winner? (2026)
3.3k contracts traded · 2.6k open
MI-08
MI-08 House winner? (2026)
3.4k contracts traded · 2.2k open
NJ-09
NJ-09 House winner? (2026)
8.5k contracts traded · 4.3k open
VA-07
VA-07 House winner? (2026)
9.8k contracts traded · 2.5k open
AK At-LargeThin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
AZ-01Thin market
Rating: GOP toss-up (Schweikert)
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
AZ-02Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
AZ-06Thin market
Rating: GOP toss-up (Ciscomani)
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
CA-03Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
CA-09Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
CA-21Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
CA-27Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
CA-40Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
CA-41Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
CA-45Thin market
Rating: Dem toss-up (Tran)
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
CA-49Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
CO-03Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
CO-08Thin market
Rating: GOP toss-up (Evans)
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
CT-05Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
FL-13Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
FL-23Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
IA-01Thin market
Rating: GOP toss-up (Miller-Meeks)
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
IL-17Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
IN-01Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
ME-02Thin market
Rating: Dem toss-up (Golden)
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
MI-04Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
MI-07Thin market
Rating: GOP toss-up (Barrett)
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
MI-10Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
MN-02Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
NH-01Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
NJ-05Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
NV-01Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
NV-03Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
NY-03Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
NY-18Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
NY-19Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
NY-22Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
OH-13Thin market
Rating: Dem toss-up (Sykes)
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
OR-05Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
PA-01Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
PA-10Thin market
Rating: GOP toss-up (Perry)
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
PA-17Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
TX-34Thin market
Rating: Dem toss-up (Gonzalez)
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
VA-01Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
WA-03Thin market
Rating: Dem toss-up (Gluesenkamp Perez)
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
WI-03Thin market
No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.
Midterms Money Tracker
Live volume · updated hourly25,998,009
contracts traded across the 2026 U.S. Senate, House, and chamber-control prediction markets on Kalshi.
184,562
Traded · 24h
17,567,896
Open interest
38
Live races
Where the money’s going — most-active races (24h)
- PA-07Bob Brooks36,781
- OH-09Marcy Kaptur15,388
- NY-17Cait Conley6,658
- AR SenateTom Cotton3,014
- GA SenateJon Ossoff2,483
- MT-01Aaron Flint2,125
Derived from live Kalshi and Polymarket public market data. Volume is contract count, not dollars. Reporters and researchers: these figures are free to cite with attribution to PredictionMarketsPicks. Updated hourly.
Put these boards on your site
Free embeds · live prices · a credit line is the only askReads & Analysis
McConnell
Why McConnell Isn't Resigning Before the Midterms
Kalshi's McConnell resignation market is spiking on health headlines. But the contract settles on resignation, not health — and a death pays last traded price, not YES. Dane on why The 7 Oracles are on NO.
Read article1 / 7
Race-by-Race Analysis
34 Senate races · live odds + market readA dedicated page for each marquee Senate race — the live Kalshi price as implied probability, the market read, and how accurately the markets called that state in 2024. More races roll out through the summer.
Georgia Senate 2026 →
Jon Ossoff (D) · Likely D
Michigan Senate 2026 →
Gary Peters (D) · Lean D
North Carolina Senate 2026 →
Thom Tillis (R) · Likely D
Maine Senate 2026 →
Susan Collins (R) · Lean D
New Hampshire Senate 2026 →
Jeanne Shaheen (D) · Lean D
Minnesota Senate 2026 →
Tina Smith (D) · Safe D
Iowa Senate 2026 →
Joni Ernst (R) · Likely R
Texas Senate 2026 →
John Cornyn (R) · Toss-up
Alaska Senate 2026 →
Dan Sullivan (R) · Toss-up
Nebraska Senate 2026 →
Pete Ricketts (R) · Lean R
Ohio Senate 2026 →
Jon Husted (appointed 2025) (R) · Toss-up
Florida Senate 2026 →
Ashley Moody (appointed 2025) (R) · Likely R
Alabama Senate 2026 →
Tommy Tuberville (R) · Safe R
Arkansas Senate 2026 →
Tom Cotton (R) · Safe R
Colorado Senate 2026 →
John Hickenlooper (D) · Safe D
Delaware Senate 2026 →
Chris Coons (D) · Safe D
Idaho Senate 2026 →
Jim Risch (R) · Safe R
Illinois Senate 2026 →
Dick Durbin (D) · Safe D
Kansas Senate 2026 →
Roger Marshall (R) · Safe R
Kentucky Senate 2026 →
Mitch McConnell (R) · Safe R
Massachusetts Senate 2026 →
Ed Markey (D) · Safe D
Mississippi Senate 2026 →
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) · Safe R
Montana Senate 2026 →
Steve Daines (R) · Safe R
New Jersey Senate 2026 →
Cory Booker (D) · Safe D
New Mexico Senate 2026 →
Ben Ray Lujan (D) · Safe D
Oklahoma Senate 2026 →
Alan Armstrong (R) · Safe R
Oregon Senate 2026 →
Jeff Merkley (D) · Safe D
Rhode Island Senate 2026 →
Jack Reed (D) · Safe D
South Carolina Senate 2026 →
Darline Graham Nordone (appointed 2026) (R) · Likely R
South Dakota Senate 2026 →
Mike Rounds (R) · Safe R
Tennessee Senate 2026 →
Bill Hagerty (R) · Safe R
Virginia Senate 2026 →
Mark Warner (D) · Safe D
West Virginia Senate 2026 →
Shelley Moore Capito (R) · Safe R
Wyoming Senate 2026 →
Cynthia Lummis (R) · Safe R
Competitive House Districts
18 toss-up districts · live odds + market readA dedicated page for each of the House districts that will decide the chamber — the live Kalshi price as implied probability, the flip-or-hold market read, and the sitting member.
AZ-01 House 2026 →
David Schweikert (R) · Lean D
AZ-06 House 2026 →
Juan Ciscomani (R) · Likely D
CA-13 House 2026 →
Adam Gray (D) · Safe D
CA-45 House 2026 →
Derek Tran (D) · Likely D
CO-08 House 2026 →
Gabe Evans (R) · Likely D
IA-01 House 2026 →
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) · Lean D
ME-02 House 2026 →
Jared Golden (D) · Lean R
MI-07 House 2026 →
Tom Barrett (R) · Likely D
NC-01 House 2026 →
Donald Davis (D) · Toss-up
NE-02 House 2026 →
Don Bacon (R) · Likely D
NM-02 House 2026 →
Gabe Vasquez (D) · Safe D
NY-04 House 2026 →
Laura Gillen (D) · Likely D
OH-09 House 2026 →
Marcy Kaptur (D) · Lean D
OH-13 House 2026 →
Emilia Sykes (D) · Safe D
PA-07 House 2026 →
Ryan Mackenzie (R) · Lean D
PA-10 House 2026 →
Scott Perry (R) · Lean D
TX-34 House 2026 →
Vicente Gonzalez (D) · Lean D
WA-03 House 2026 →
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) · Lean D
How to Read These Markets
Price = ProbabilityA 68¢ Yes price means the market implies a 68% chance that outcome happens. Each contract pays $1 at resolution. Kalshi prices are CFTC-regulated real money.
Competitiveness SortSenate and House races are sorted by how close the leading price is to 50¢. The tightest races — where the market hasn’t made up its mind — are at the top. That’s where the volume and opportunity concentrate.
Kalshi vs. PolymarketKalshi is CFTC-regulated and legally accessible to US traders. Polymarket is offshore. When the two platforms disagree by more than a few cents, that spread is worth examining — one market is mispriced relative to the other.
2026 Midterms — frequently asked
Which 2026 Senate races have prediction markets?
34 of the 35 Senate seats up in 2026 have tradeable Kalshi markets, including the Ohio (Vance seat) and Florida (Rubio seat) Class 3 specials. Only Louisiana has no tradeable market yet — just an empty shell that we re-probe on a schedule.
Are there prediction markets for every House seat?
No. Of the 435 House seats, 66 competitive districts have individual Kalshi markets. The other 369 seats have no individual market and are priced only through the chamber seat-count and balance-of-power markets.
Which states have no Senate race in 2026?
15 states have no 2026 Senate race: Arizona, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Indiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New York, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Utah, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin. Their Class 1 and Class 3 seats are not on the 2026 ballot.
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