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Correlation-aware Kalshi combos — free

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Live game edges — model vs. Kalshi, ranked

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SILVER EDGE

Options vs. Kalshi on weekly silver brackets

Every seat, every market — real-time probability for all 435 House seats and 35 Senate races on Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets. The 7 Oracles.
MIDTERMS 2026Live · updated hourly293 tradeable contracts

2026 Midterms Prediction Markets

Every real-money midterm market in one place — 34 Senate races (plus Louisiana, no market yet), 66 competitive House districts, chamber seat count distributions, and the balance of power combo. Kalshi prices are CFTC-regulated. Polymarket prices shown for cross-platform comparison where available.

Updated Sep 19, 7:22 PM UTC

Featured Races

Tossups (35–65¢)
Open interest
1
MI-04 · Bill Huizenga
House54¢
6.1K
Trade
2
OH Senate (Special) · Sherrod Brown
Senate55¢
Full race breakdown →
2.5M
Trade
3
MI-07 · William Lawrence
House55¢
Full race breakdown →
28K
Trade
4
ME-02 · Paul LePage
House58¢
Full race breakdown →
29K
Trade
5
TX Senate · James Talarico
Senate59¢
Full race breakdown →
9.0M
Trade
6
NC-01 · Don Davis
House60¢
Full race breakdown →
42K
Trade
Top Senate by Open Interest
Contracts open
1
TX Senate · James Talarico
Senate59¢
Full race breakdown →
9.0M
Trade
2
ME Senate · Troy Jackson
Senate68¢
Full race breakdown →
2.8M
Trade
3
MI Senate · Abdul El-Sayed
Senate65¢
Full race breakdown →
2.6M
Trade
4
OH Senate (Special) · Sherrod Brown
Senate55¢
Full race breakdown →
2.5M
Trade
5
NC Senate · Roy Cooper
Senate92¢
Full race breakdown →
1.8M
Trade
6
IA Senate · Ashley Hinson
Senate61¢
Full race breakdown →
1.7M
Trade
Most Traded (24h)
Contracts 24h
1
TX-15 · Bobby Pulido
House67¢
255K
Trade
2
TX Senate · James Talarico
Senate59¢
Full race breakdown →
173K
Trade
3
IA Senate · Ashley Hinson
Senate61¢
Full race breakdown →
92K
Trade
4
KS Senate · Roger Marshall
Senate74¢
Full race breakdown →
60K
Trade
5
OH Senate (Special) · Sherrod Brown
Senate55¢
Full race breakdown →
59K
Trade
6
MI Senate · Abdul El-Sayed
Senate65¢
Full race breakdown →
39K
Trade
Marquee Toss-Up

59¢

James Talarico

42¢

Ken Paxton

Featured Race · TX Senate · The Tightest Board

James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton

Texas Senate winner? (2026)

James Talarico leads at 59¢ — the highest-volume race the market still can’t call. When the leading price sits this close to a coin flip on real money, that’s where the edge lives.

13.3M contracts traded
Open the race breakdown →

Markets vs Pundits

Full board →

Balance of Power

4 combo contracts · Kalshi + Polymarket

The single highest-stakes midterm market — four outcomes covering who controls the Senate and House after November. Each contract pays $1 if the exact combo resolves true. The Kalshi book sits beside the Polymarket combos below so you can read the cross-platform spread at a glance.

Polymarket · Balance of Power

Trade on Polymarket →
D Senate, D House60¢
D Senate, R House1¢
R Senate, D House31¢
R Senate, R House9¢

Polymarket chamber control

Polymarket · Senate Control

Democrat61¢
Republican41¢

Polymarket · House Control

Democrat91¢
Republican11¢

2026 Senate Races — State by State

34 of 34 with live prices · Full Senate board →

Every Class 2 Senate seat on the ballot in November 2026, plus the Ohio and Florida specials — sorted by how close the market is to 50/50, the most contested races first. A tight spread (40¢/60¢ or closer) signals a genuinely two-way race where the market hasn’t found consensus. That’s where the edge lives.

Show all 22 more Senate races

2026 Governor Races

7 of 7 with live prices

The governor contracts Kalshi prices for November 2026 — every one an open seat. California is the largest 2026 race on the board by traded volume — a reminder that the biggest market is not always the closest one. Michigan’s is the one race also quoted as a Senate-and-Governor combination contract. Each race has its own page with the live legs and the seat facts.

California Governor 2026 →

Gavin Newsom (D) · open seat

Michigan Governor 2026 →

Gretchen Whitmer (D) · open seat

Maine Governor 2026 →

Janet Mills (D) · open seat

Iowa Governor 2026 →

Kim Reynolds (R) · open seat

Ohio Governor 2026 →

Mike DeWine (R) · open seat

South Carolina Governor 2026 →

Henry McMaster (R) · open seat

Kansas Governor 2026 →

Laura Kelly (D) · open seat

Seat Count Distributions

Kalshi seat-count ladders

Rather than a simple binary, these markets let you position on the exact seat count each party holds after January 2027. Strikes run low-to-high — the distribution shape tells you where the market sees the realistic ceiling and floor, and divergences from the polling models are your signal.

R Lose Majority Early

Will Republicans lose the House majority before the midterms?

Trade →
Republican Party3¢

52k contracts traded · 15k open

2026 House District Races

65 of 66 with live prices · Full House board → · 2026 redistricting tracker →

The most competitive House districts on Kalshi — sorted by how close the current pricing is to a coin flip. Most are genuine swing seats in Arizona, California, New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia. Incumbency, presidential approval, and the national environment all flow through these prices in real time.

Show all 54 more House districts
CA-40Thin market

No priced contracts came back on the last refresh. The seat is on the 2026 ballot and the market is listed — it reprices as traders return.

Every Seat, Every Market — Coverage Map

50 states · click any tile

The honest map nobody else builds: every Senate seat and every House seat accounted for, flagged by whether a real market exists — live, thin, no market yet, or not up for grabs in 2026. Toggle Senate / House, hover for a summary, click a state for the full race detail and live Kalshi prices.

Midterms Money Tracker

Live volume · updated hourly

70,445,393

contracts traded across the 2026 U.S. Senate, House, and chamber-control prediction markets on Kalshi.

1,795,539

Traded · 24h

46,921,356

Open interest

99

Live races

Where the money’s going — most-active races (24h)

  1. TX-15254,605
  2. TX Senate172,749
  3. IA Senate92,033
  4. KS Senate60,312
  5. OH Senate (Special)58,627
  6. MI Senate38,869

Derived from live Kalshi and Polymarket public market data. Volume is contract count, not dollars. Reporters and researchers: these figures are free to cite with attribution to PredictionMarketsPicks. Updated hourly.

Put these boards on your site

Free embeds · live prices · a credit line is the only ask

Closest-race card

The tightest Senate race today, live, or lock it to one state from that race’s page

Balance of power

Which party controls each chamber after January 2027

The full midterms board

Senate, House, governor and control markets on rotation

Reads & Analysis

McConnell

Why McConnell Isn't Resigning Before the Midterms

Kalshi's McConnell resignation market is spiking on health headlines. But the contract settles on resignation, not health — and a death pays last traded price, not YES. Dane on why The 7 Oracles are on NO.

Read article
1 / 7

Race-by-Race Analysis

34 Senate races · live odds + market read

A dedicated page for each marquee Senate race — the live Kalshi price as implied probability, the market read, and how accurately the markets called that state in 2024. More races roll out through the summer.

Georgia Senate 2026 →

Jon Ossoff (D) · Likely D

Michigan Senate 2026 →

Gary Peters (D) · Lean D

North Carolina Senate 2026 →

Thom Tillis (R) · Likely D

Maine Senate 2026 →

Susan Collins (R) · Lean D

New Hampshire Senate 2026 →

Jeanne Shaheen (D) · Lean D

Minnesota Senate 2026 →

Tina Smith (D) · Safe D

Iowa Senate 2026 →

Joni Ernst (R) · Likely R

Texas Senate 2026 →

John Cornyn (R) · Toss-up

Alaska Senate 2026 →

Dan Sullivan (R) · Toss-up

Nebraska Senate 2026 →

Pete Ricketts (R) · Lean R

Ohio Senate 2026 →

Jon Husted (appointed 2025) (R) · Toss-up

Florida Senate 2026 →

Ashley Moody (appointed 2025) (R) · Likely R

Alabama Senate 2026 →

Tommy Tuberville (R) · Safe R

Arkansas Senate 2026 →

Tom Cotton (R) · Safe R

Colorado Senate 2026 →

John Hickenlooper (D) · Safe D

Delaware Senate 2026 →

Chris Coons (D) · Safe D

Idaho Senate 2026 →

Jim Risch (R) · Safe R

Illinois Senate 2026 →

Dick Durbin (D) · Safe D

Kansas Senate 2026 →

Roger Marshall (R) · Safe R

Kentucky Senate 2026 →

Mitch McConnell (R) · Safe R

Massachusetts Senate 2026 →

Ed Markey (D) · Safe D

Mississippi Senate 2026 →

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) · Safe R

Montana Senate 2026 →

Steve Daines (R) · Safe R

New Jersey Senate 2026 →

Cory Booker (D) · Safe D

New Mexico Senate 2026 →

Ben Ray Lujan (D) · Safe D

Oklahoma Senate 2026 →

Alan Armstrong (R) · Safe R

Oregon Senate 2026 →

Jeff Merkley (D) · Safe D

Rhode Island Senate 2026 →

Jack Reed (D) · Safe D

South Carolina Senate 2026 →

Darline Graham Nordone (appointed 2026) (R) · Likely R

South Dakota Senate 2026 →

Mike Rounds (R) · Safe R

Tennessee Senate 2026 →

Bill Hagerty (R) · Safe R

Virginia Senate 2026 →

Mark Warner (D) · Safe D

West Virginia Senate 2026 →

Shelley Moore Capito (R) · Safe R

Wyoming Senate 2026 →

Cynthia Lummis (R) · Safe R

Competitive House Districts

18 toss-up districts · live odds + market read

A dedicated page for each of the House districts that will decide the chamber — the live Kalshi price as implied probability, the flip-or-hold market read, and the sitting member.

AZ-01 House 2026 →

David Schweikert (R) · Lean D

AZ-06 House 2026 →

Juan Ciscomani (R) · Likely D

CA-13 House 2026 →

Adam Gray (D) · Safe D

CA-45 House 2026 →

Derek Tran (D) · Likely D

CO-08 House 2026 →

Gabe Evans (R) · Likely D

IA-01 House 2026 →

Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) · Lean D

ME-02 House 2026 →

Jared Golden (D) · Lean R

MI-07 House 2026 →

Tom Barrett (R) · Likely D

NC-01 House 2026 →

Donald Davis (D) · Toss-up

NE-02 House 2026 →

Don Bacon (R) · Likely D

NM-02 House 2026 →

Gabe Vasquez (D) · Safe D

NY-04 House 2026 →

Laura Gillen (D) · Likely D

OH-09 House 2026 →

Marcy Kaptur (D) · Lean D

OH-13 House 2026 →

Emilia Sykes (D) · Safe D

PA-07 House 2026 →

Ryan Mackenzie (R) · Lean D

PA-10 House 2026 →

Scott Perry (R) · Lean D

TX-34 House 2026 →

Vicente Gonzalez (D) · Lean D

WA-03 House 2026 →

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) · Lean D

How to Read These Markets

Price = ProbabilityA 68¢ Yes price means the market implies a 68% chance that outcome happens. Each contract pays $1 at resolution. Kalshi prices are CFTC-regulated real money.
Competitiveness SortSenate and House races are sorted by how close the leading price is to 50¢. The tightest races — where the market hasn’t made up its mind — are at the top. That’s where the volume and opportunity concentrate.
Kalshi vs. PolymarketKalshi is CFTC-regulated and legally accessible to US traders. Polymarket is offshore. When the two platforms disagree by more than a few cents, that spread is worth examining — one market is mispriced relative to the other.

2026 Midterms — frequently asked

Which 2026 Senate races have prediction markets?

34 of the 35 Senate seats up in 2026 have tradeable Kalshi markets, including the Ohio (Vance seat) and Florida (Rubio seat) Class 3 specials. Only Louisiana has no tradeable market yet — just an empty shell that we re-probe on a schedule.

Are there prediction markets for every House seat?

No. Of the 435 House seats, 66 competitive districts have individual Kalshi markets. The other 369 seats have no individual market and are priced only through the chamber seat-count and balance-of-power markets.

Which states have no Senate race in 2026?

15 states have no 2026 Senate race: Arizona, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Indiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New York, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Utah, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin. Their Class 1 and Class 3 seats are not on the 2026 ballot.

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