2026 Midterm Results: Democrats Win the House and Senate — What the Markets Got Right
Quick Answer
Democrats won control of the Senate, a call the Associated Press made on election night. As of Nov. 4, 7:07 PM ET, the count stood at 54 seats for the Democratic caucus and 44 for Republicans, with Alaska and Mississippi not yet called.
Democrats won control of the House, a call the Associated Press made on Nov. 4. As of Nov. 4, 7:07 PM ET, AP had called 232 seats for Democrats and 146 for Republicans, with 57 still uncalled.
U.S. Senate
Democrats win control
D 54 · R 44 · 2 uncalled
As of Nov. 4, 7:07 PM ET
U.S. House
Democrats win control
D 232 · R 146 · 57 uncalled
As of Nov. 4, 7:07 PM ET
Senate count includes independents who caucus with Democrats.
7 Senate seats changed party
Senate results map
How accurate were the markets? →Markets vs. forecasters →Election night, as it happened →Michigan →
Every 2026 Senate race
| Race | Result | Winner’s final price | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Senate | Ossoff (D) | 97¢ | Market had it |
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed (D) | 79¢ | Market had it |
| North Carolina SenateFlip | Cooper (D) | 98¢ | Market had it |
| Maine SenateFlip | Jackson (D) | 73¢ | Market had it |
| New Hampshire Senate | Pappas (D) | 94¢ | Market had it |
| Minnesota Senate | Flanagan (D) | 91¢ | Market had it |
| Iowa SenateFlip | Turek (D) | 53¢ | Market had it |
| Texas SenateFlip | Talarico (D) | 74¢ | Market had it |
| Alaska Senate | Counting | — | — |
| Nebraska Senate | Ricketts (R) | 68¢ | Market had it |
| Ohio SenateFlip | Brown (D) | 72¢ | Market had it |
| Florida Senate | Moody (R) | 85¢ | Market had it |
| Alabama Senate | Moore (R) | 99¢ | Market had it |
| Arkansas Senate | Cotton (R) | 96¢ | Market had it |
| Colorado Senate | Hickenlooper (D) | 99¢ | Market had it |
| Delaware Senate | Coons (D) | 99¢ | Market had it |
| Idaho Senate | Risch (R) | 96¢ | Market had it |
| Illinois Senate | Stratton (D) | 100¢ | Market had it |
| Kansas SenateFlip | Hamilton (D) | 63¢ | Market had it |
| Kentucky Senate | Barr (R) | 96¢ | Market had it |
| Louisiana Senate | Letlow (R) | 87¢ | Market had it |
| Massachusetts Senate | Markey (D) | 99¢ | Market had it |
| Mississippi Senate | Counting | — | — |
| Montana Senate | Alme (R) | 91¢ | Market had it |
| New Jersey Senate | Booker (D) | 99¢ | Market had it |
| New Mexico Senate | Luján (D) | 99¢ | Market had it |
| Oklahoma Senate | Hern (R) | 99¢ | Market had it |
| Oregon Senate | Merkley (D) | 100¢ | Market had it |
| Rhode Island Senate | Reed (D) | 100¢ | Market had it |
| South Carolina SenateFlip | Andrews (D) | 33¢ | Market missed |
| South Dakota Senate | Rounds (R) | 96¢ | Market had it |
| Tennessee Senate | Hagerty (R) | 98¢ | Market had it |
| Virginia Senate | Warner (D) | 99¢ | Market had it |
| West Virginia Senate | Capito (R) | 99¢ | Market had it |
| Wyoming Senate | Hageman (R) | 99¢ | Market had it |
Final price: Kalshi at 11 PM ET on Nov. 2. Race calls from the Associated Press and Fox News, as of Nov 4, 7:07 PM ET; each race page credits its call.
Governor races we tracked
| Race | Result | Winner’s final price | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| California Governor | Becerra (D) | 97¢ | Market had it |
| Michigan Governor | Benson (D) | 95¢ | Market had it |
| Maine Governor | Pingree (D) | 97¢ | Market had it |
| Iowa GovernorFlip | Sand (D) | 87¢ | Market had it |
| Ohio GovernorFlip | Acton (D) | 83¢ | Market had it |
| South Carolina Governor | Wilson (R) | 95¢ | Market had it |
| Kansas Governor | Counting | — | — |
| Florida Governor | Donalds (R) | 63¢ | Market had it |
| New York Governor | Hochul (D) | 96¢ | Market had it |
| Texas GovernorFlip | Hinojosa (D) | 40¢ | Market missed |
| Wisconsin Governor | Crowley (D) | 85¢ | Market had it |
| Georgia GovernorFlip | Bottoms (D) | 70¢ | Market had it |
| Nevada GovernorFlip | Ford (D) | 75¢ | Market had it |
| Arizona Governor | Hobbs (D) | 92¢ | Market had it |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Shapiro (D) | 98¢ | Market had it |
Final price: Kalshi at 11 PM ET on Nov. 2. Race calls from the Associated Press and Fox News, as of Nov 4, 7:07 PM ET; each race page credits its call.
House districts we tracked
| Race | Result | Winner’s final price | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-01 House | Counting | — | — |
| AZ-06 House | Counting | — | — |
| CA-13 House | Gray (D) | 93¢ | Market had it |
| CA-45 House | Tran (D) | 94¢ | Market had it |
| CO-08 HouseFlip | Rutinel (D) | 90¢ | Market had it |
| IA-01 HouseFlip | Bohannan (D) | 91¢ | Market had it |
| ME-02 House | Counting | — | — |
| MI-07 HouseFlip | Lawrence (D) | 79¢ | Market had it |
| NC-01 House | Counting | — | — |
| NE-02 HouseFlip | Powell (D) | 93¢ | Market had it |
| NM-02 House | Vasquez (D) | 92¢ | Market had it |
| NY-04 House | Gillen (D) | 93¢ | Market had it |
| OH-09 House | Kaptur (D) | 82¢ | Market had it |
| OH-13 House | Sykes (D) | 97¢ | Market had it |
| PA-07 HouseFlip | Brooks (D) | 88¢ | Market had it |
| PA-10 HouseFlip | Stelson (D) | 83¢ | Market had it |
| TX-34 House | Gonzalez (D) | 90¢ | Market had it |
| WA-03 House | Gluesenkamp Perez (D) | 89¢ | Market had it |
| VA-01 House | Counting | — | — |
| MI-04 HouseFlip | McCann (D) | 61¢ | Market had it |
| PA-01 HouseFlip | Harvie (D) | 65¢ | Market had it |
| NY-17 House | Counting | — | — |
| WI-01 HouseFlip | Berman (D) | 52¢ | Market had it |
| MI-10 HouseFlip | Hines (D) | 76¢ | Market had it |
| MT-01 House | Counting | — | — |
| AZ-02 House | Counting | — | — |
| CO-03 House | Counting | — | — |
| PA-08 HouseFlip | Cognetti (D) | 89¢ | Market had it |
| WI-03 HouseFlip | Cooke (D) | 90¢ | Market had it |
| FL-13 House | Counting | — | — |
| IA-03 HouseFlip | Trone Garriott (D) | 84¢ | Market had it |
| NJ-07 HouseFlip | Bennett (D) | 95¢ | Market had it |
| TX-15 HouseFlip | Pulido (D) | 90¢ | Market had it |
Final price: Kalshi at 11 PM ET on Nov. 2. Race calls from the Associated Press and Fox News, as of Nov 4, 7:07 PM ET; each race page credits its call.
The next market on the board, in your inbox — free
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
2026 midterm results — frequently asked
Who won the Senate in the 2026 midterms?
Democrats won control of the Senate, a call the Associated Press made on election night. As of Nov. 4, 7:07 PM ET, the count stood at 54 seats for the Democratic caucus and 44 for Republicans, with Alaska and Mississippi not yet called.
Who won the House in the 2026 midterms?
Democrats won control of the House, a call the Associated Press made on Nov. 4. As of Nov. 4, 7:07 PM ET, AP had called 232 seats for Democrats and 146 for Republicans, with 57 still uncalled.
Which Senate seats flipped in 2026?
7 seats changed party: North Carolina (Roy Cooper), Maine (Troy Jackson), Iowa (Josh Turek), Texas (James Talarico), Ohio (Sherrod Brown), Kansas (Adam Hamilton), South Carolina (Annie Andrews).
How accurate were prediction markets in the 2026 midterms?
We graded them against the rule we published before the vote: the Kalshi price at 11 PM ET on Nov. 2, with the side above 50¢ as the favorite. The scorecard article has the full result, race by race.