Which 2026 Senate races have prediction markets?

34 of the 35 Senate seats up in 2026 have tradeable Kalshi markets, including the Ohio (Vance seat) and Florida (Rubio seat) Class 3 specials. Only Louisiana has no tradeable market yet — just an empty shell that we re-probe on a schedule.

Are there prediction markets for every House seat?

No. Of the 435 House seats, 66 competitive districts have individual Kalshi markets. The other 369 seats have no individual market and are priced only through the chamber seat-count and balance-of-power markets.

Which states have no Senate race in 2026?

15 states have no 2026 Senate race: Arizona, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Indiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New York, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Utah, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin. Their Class 1 and Class 3 seats are not on the 2026 ballot.

MIDTERMS 2026Live · updated hourly8 tradeable contracts

2026 Midterms Prediction Markets

Name: 2026 U.S. Midterm Prediction-Market Coverage Map
Creator: The 7 Oracles
License: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tos

Every real-money midterm market in one place — 34 Senate races (plus Louisiana, no market yet), 66 competitive House districts, chamber seat count distributions, and the balance of power combo. Kalshi prices are CFTC-regulated. Polymarket prices shown for cross-platform comparison where available.

Every Seat, Every Market — Coverage Map

50 states · click any tile

The honest map nobody else builds: every Senate seat and every House seat accounted for, flagged by whether a real market exists — live, thin, no market yet, or not up for grabs in 2026. Toggle Senate / House, hover for a summary, click a state for the full race detail and live Kalshi prices.

Balance of Power

4 combo contracts · Kalshi + Polymarket

The single highest-stakes midterm market — four outcomes covering who controls the Senate and House after November. Each contract pays $1 if the exact combo resolves true. Republican Hold + Republican Hold currently prices as the heaviest book; Democratic flips are the long-tail opportunity.

Balance of Power

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

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R-House, R-Senate23¢OI 1884k D-House, D-Senate40¢OI 989k R-House, D-Senate2¢OI 1003k D-House, R-Senate36¢OI 850k

6832k contracts traded · 4727k open

Polymarket · Balance of Power

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Yes42¢

No59¢

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes37¢

No64¢

Yes19¢

No82¢

Yes1¢

No99¢

Polymarket chamber control binaries

Polymarket · Senate Control

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes56¢

No44¢

Polymarket · House Control

Yes81¢

No20¢

Yes20¢

No81¢

2026 House District Races

2 competitive districts · sorted by competitiveness

The 66 most competitive House districts on Kalshi — sorted by how close the current pricing is to a coin flip. Most of these are genuine swing seats in Arizona, California, New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia. Incumbency, presidential approval, and national environment all flow through these prices in real time.

WI-03

WI-03 House winner? (2026)

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Democratic party67¢Republican party34¢

9.9k contracts traded · 4.8k open

AZ-01

AZ-01 House winner? (2026)

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Democratic party71¢Republican party31¢

8.3k contracts traded · 6.5k open

How to Read These Markets

Price = ProbabilityA 68¢ Yes price means the market implies a 68% chance that outcome happens. Each contract pays $1 at resolution. Kalshi prices are CFTC-regulated real money.

Competitiveness SortSenate and House races are sorted by how close the leading price is to 50¢. The tightest races — where the market hasn’t made up its mind — are at the top. That’s where the volume and opportunity concentrate.

Kalshi vs. PolymarketKalshi is CFTC-regulated and legally accessible to US traders. Polymarket is offshore. When the two platforms disagree by more than a few cents, that spread is worth examining — one market is mispriced relative to the other.

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