Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, Kalshi implies 65% for the Raiders in Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders, NFL Week 1 2026, while our model has the Dolphins by 0.5 (51% to win) — a 15.4pp gap. Value side: the Dolphins.
MIA
-3.0
LV
-5.8
Dolphins
51%
model win prob
Raiders
49%
model win prob
Power-rating comparison
Dolphins–Raiders is a coin flip on our numbers
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Raiders rate -5.8 (32nd of 32), the Dolphins -3.0 (28th) — 2.8 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 49%/51%, and this rates as the 3rd-closest game of the 16 in Week 1. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Raiders at 5.6 wins (favored in 1 of 17) and the Dolphins at 6.7 (favored in 4) — 1.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Raiders' schedule and the 16th-hardest on the Dolphins'.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Dolphins grade -2.5 on that side of the ball (28th of 32) against a Raiders offense at -4.1 (32nd) — 1.6 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Dolphins offense (-1.3, 25th) meets the Raiders defense (-1.9, 24th), a 0.6-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Dolphins grade +0.8, 6th in the league, against +0.2 (23rd) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
One team has owned this series: the Dolphins are 11-3 in 14 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 4 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2024: Dolphins won 34-19 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Raiders are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Dolphins at 51% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13MIALV contract implies 65% for the Raiders against our 49% — a 15.4-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Dolphins as the value side at 36c.
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Dolphins vs Raiders — frequently asked
Who is favored in Dolphins vs Raiders in Week 1?
Our power-rating model favors the Dolphins by 0.5 points, a 51% win probability over the Raiders. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13MIALV market implies 65% for the Raiders — a 15.4pp gap versus the model.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Raiders (-5.8, 32nd) and Dolphins (-3.0, 28th) are only 2.8 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 49%/51%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Dolphins vs Raiders?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13MIALV on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Raiders YES is quoted around 65c against our 49% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Raiders host the Dolphins?
Miami Dolphins visit the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, September 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 1, at Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV.
What does the model project for the Raiders and Dolphins this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Raiders at 5.6 wins (favored in 1) and the Dolphins at 6.7 (favored in 4). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Raiders' schedule and 16th-hardest on the Dolphins', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 51% on a team like the Dolphins?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Dolphins at 51% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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