Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
Quick Answer
As of September 7, 2026, Kalshi implies 63% for the Raiders in Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders, NFL Week 1 2026, while our model has the Dolphins by 0 (50% to win) — a 12.1pp gap. Value side: the Dolphins.
Kickoff board
Week 1 · 2026-09-072 actionable markets of 2 priced — largest edge 15.0pp on Malik Willis OVER 0.5 Pass TDs.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
MIA
-3.3
LV
-6.0
Dolphins
50%
model win prob
Raiders
50%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
32%
Madden 27
68%
Madden 27
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Dolphins vs Raiders player props
Our projection against the live Kalshi contract. Every prop is an “X or more” contract that pays $1 if the player gets there, so the price of the side we call, in cents,is the market’s implied probability — the edge is the gap between that and ours, in percentage points. Closest strike to our projection first.
| Player | Contract | Call | Our odds | Mkt | Edge | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik WillisQB | 1+ pass TDsover 0.5 | YES | 79% | 64¢ | +15.5 pp | STRONG |
| De'Von AchaneRB | 70+ rush ydsover 69.5 | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | HIGH |
| Brock BowersTE | 90+ rec ydsover 89.5 | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE |
All 18 player-prop edges for Week 1 →Locked numbers are Pro.
Dolphins vs Raiders: where the prop prices are
The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — the Oracle calls above are the opinion.
| Player | Prop | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock BowersTE | 90+ rec yds | 22.5¢ | off-ladder | — | Kalshi only |
| Brock BowersTE | 100+ rec yds | 19.5¢ | off-ladder | — | over · Novig 22¢under · Novig 81.5¢ |
| Brock Bowers | 120+ rec yds | 10.5¢ | off-ladder | — | Kalshi only |
| Brock Bowers | 130+ rec yds | 9.0¢ | off-ladder | — | Kalshi only |
| Brock Bowers | 140+ rec yds | 6.5¢ | off-ladder | — | Kalshi only |
| De'Von Achane | 80+ rec yds | 6.5¢ | — | — | Kalshi only |
| De'Von Achane | 90+ rec yds | 5.5¢ | — | — | Kalshi only |
| De'Von Achane | 90+ rush yds | 25.0¢ | off-ladder | — | Kalshi only |
See all 27 priced prop strikes for this game on the board →+ 49 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.
Dolphins–Raiders is a coin flip on our numbers
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Raiders rate -6.0 (32nd of 32), the Dolphins -3.3 (28th) — 2.7 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 50%/50%, and this rates as the 1st-closest game of the 16 in Week 1. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 5.7 projected wins for the Raiders against 6.7 for the Dolphins, favored in 1 and 2 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 16th-hardest on the Raiders' schedule and 16th-hardest on the Dolphins'.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Dolphins grade -2.7 on that side of the ball (28th of 32) against a Raiders offense at -4.2 (32nd) — 1.5 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Dolphins offense (-1.4, 26th) meets the Raiders defense (-2.0, 24th), a 0.6-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Dolphins grade +0.8, 6th in the league, against +0.2 (23rd) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
One team has owned this series: the Dolphins are 11-3 in 14 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 4 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2024: Dolphins won 34-19 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Raiders are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Raiders at 50% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13MIALV contract implies 63% for the Raiders against our 50% — a 12.1-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Dolphins as the value side at 38c.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Dolphins vs Raiders on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP13MIALV
- Market-implied (Raiders)
- 63c · 63%
- Our model (Raiders)
- 50%
- Model vs market
- -12.1pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP13MIALV. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 63c on the Raiders is an implied 63% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 50%, a 12.1pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Dolphins vs Raiders trades
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Raiders | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 63% 63c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 62% 62c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 63% 63c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 63% 63c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Dolphins vs Raiders — frequently asked
Who is favored in Dolphins vs Raiders in Week 1?
Our power-rating model favors the Raiders by 0 points, a 50% win probability over the Dolphins. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13MIALV market implies 63% for the Raiders — a 12.1pp gap versus the model.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Raiders (-6.0, 32nd) and Dolphins (-3.3, 28th) are only 2.7 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 50%/50%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Dolphins vs Raiders?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13MIALV on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Raiders YES is quoted around 63c against our 50% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Raiders host the Dolphins?
Miami Dolphins visit the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, September 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 1, at Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV.
What does the model project for the Raiders and Dolphins this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Raiders at 5.7 wins (favored in 1) and the Dolphins at 6.7 (favored in 2). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Raiders' schedule and 16th-hardest on the Dolphins', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Dolphins vs Raiders?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP13MIALV. The Raiders YES contract sits around 63c, which is an implied 63% — against our model's 50%. That is a 12.1pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Dolphins vs Raiders on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 1 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13MIALV. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 50% on a team like the Raiders?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Raiders at 50% over the Dolphins sit in that band, off a 0-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Is Malik Willis OVER 0.5 Pass TDs worth a position?
Our model puts it at 79% against a market price implying 64%, an edge of +15.0 points. Projection implies 79% on the over; the line prices 64%. We rate it attack, sized at 10.4% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
Is Dolphins moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 50% against a market price implying 38%, an edge of +12.1 points. Model 50% vs market 38% on MIA. We rate it attack, sized at 4.8% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
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