Updated · market price
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, September 13, 2026): Miami Dolphins 13, Las Vegas Raiders 27 — NFL Week 1, 2026. Our pre-game model had this a toss-up (50% on the Dolphins); the Raiders won, so that call hit. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Miami Dolphins 13, Las Vegas Raiders 27Final
Model call: HITOur pre-game model had a toss-up (50% on the Dolphins). The Raiders won — that call landed.
Closing-line value on the Raiders: -3c — we archived the Raiders at 63c on Sep 7; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 60c on Sep 12. The market moved against our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 2 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Las Vegas won by fourteen on 290 total yards and 160 through the air, because three of those throws found the end zone and two of them found Ashton Jeanty from thirteen yards out. Miami started Malik Willis, was sacked five times and did not score after the third quarter.
Dolphins 13—Raiders 27
Final✓ Call hitA directional hit and a position loss. Our stored probability had Las Vegas at 50.4% — effectively a coin flip on a three-point home favorite — and Las Vegas won, so the chip reads hit on the thinnest possible call. The published position was Miami. The engine priced the Dolphins above a Kalshi mark implying 39.5%, called it a 10.1-point gap, tiered it HIGH and entered at 35.5c. Miami closed at 39.5c, four cents of positive closing-line value, and then lost by fourteen. This is the pattern the whole week keeps drawing: our number sits near 50 on a game the market has priced at 60-40, we take the underdog, the market drifts a few cents toward us, and the favorite wins comfortably. Four cents of CLV on nine losing positions is not a defence of the model; it is a description of a model whose probabilities are compressed toward the middle. The total held its shape — 41.5 to 40.5, and the game landed on exactly forty.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread did not move. The total fell 1 to 40.5; the game landed on 40.
Q1
Bowers was listed out with a meniscus injury. Cousins targeted Ashton Jeanty six times and Michael Mayer seven, and the first score was a fifteen-yard throw to Jack Bech with 1:33 left in the opening quarter. The Raiders’ leading receiver by yardage finished with forty-five.
Q3
Jeanty caught touchdowns from thirteen yards with 1:07 left in the half and again with 9:58 left in the third, either side of the only Miami touchdown. He also carried twenty-three times for 102. Twenty-nine touches in his first Week 1 as the centrepiece of the offense.
Q3
Willis went fifteen of twenty-seven for 220 with an interception and was sacked five times for thirty-five yards, though he did score from fourteen to cut it to 17-13 early in the third. Kwity Paye had two sacks and four quarterback hits. Miami went two of ten on third down.
Q4
A Matt Gay field goal with 2:34 left in the third made it 27-13 and that was the last point of the game. Both teams turned it over twice. The forty combined points landed half a point under a closing total of 40.5, which the market had already trimmed by a point from its open.
Reporting verified 2026-09-13. Further sources: ESPN box score — Dolphins at Raiders · ESPN game page — Dolphins at Raiders · ESPN — Week 1 highlights: best plays, moments, touchdowns
Miami moved on from Tyreek Hill and traded Jaylen Waddle; Las Vegas fired Pete Carroll after one season and just lost Brock Bowers for the opener. What is left is Malik Willis opening the season as Miami's starter, Kirk Cousins bridging to a rookie, and one proven star matchup still standing — Maxx Crosby against a Miami left tackle who quietly graded well as a rookie.
Raiders edge · Dolphins left tackle
Crosby is the one elite player on either line, and he is chasing an eighth straight season of seven-plus sacks. Paul, Miami's second-year left tackle, allowed one of the lower pressure rates among tackles league-wide last season and called Crosby a hothead this week — new Dolphins coach Jeff Hafley cautioned there is not much tape to plan from this early. The soft spot is inside him: rookie Kadyn Proctor debuts at left guard, and Jonah Savaiinaea returns at right guard after the lowest PFF grade of any qualified guard in 2025.
Source: Athlon Sports — Patrick Paul faces the Maxx Crosby test
Raiders secondary · Dolphins receivers
Tyreek Hill was released and Jaylen Waddle was traded to Denver in March. PFF calls what remains the worst receiving corps in football: Malik Washington, Tahj Washington and Theo Wease Jr. combined for barely 700 receiving yards last season. Las Vegas' secondary is flagged elsewhere as thin at free safety, but it does not need to be elite to hold up against this group.
Raiders tight end · Dolphins coverage
Bowers had a knee procedure this week and will miss the opener; Michael Mayer and Ian Thomas take over at tight end. That matters more here than it would on most rosters, because PFF notes the Raiders' returning receivers averaged under 1.20 yards per route run last season. Any pre-injury read that leaned on a big Bowers game is stale.
Source: Raiders.com — Week 1 injury report, Bowers ruled out
Dolphins run game · Raiders run defense
Miami's run game was middle of the pack last season, led by Achane, who signed a four-year extension this offseason. Las Vegas finished last in the league against the run. Multiple previews flag this as the single biggest schematic mismatch of the game, and it is the one place where Miami's rebuilt line — Proctor and Savaiinaea included — is asked to move people rather than hold them off.
Raiders run game · Dolphins run defense
Jeanty is in his second NFL season, not his first — he was the Raiders' 2025 first-round pick and cleared 900 rushing yards as a rookie. A mid-August ankle injury had been a question, but he practiced in full all week and is off the injury report entirely. With Bowers out, he is the offense Las Vegas can actually count on.
Quarterbacks · coaching
Miami fired Mike McDaniel in January and hired Jeff Hafley; Malik Willis, signed to a three-year deal, is the starter, with one strong late-2025 spot start as his entire case. Las Vegas fired Pete Carroll after a single season, and new coach Klint Kubiak has Kirk Cousins bridging over first-overall pick Fernando Mendoza, who opens as the backup. Neither team enters with a settled long-term answer at the position.
Source: NFL.com — Raiders name Cousins starter, Mendoza backup
Reporting verified 2026-09-11. Further sources: Raiders.com — Week 1 injury report vs Miami · PFF — Las Vegas Raiders 2026 preview · PFF — Miami Dolphins 2026 preview · Heavy — Dolphins starter put on notice before Week 1 · NFL.com — Dolphins release Tyreek Hill · NFL.com — Brock Bowers knee procedure, out Week 1 · Athlon Sports — Patrick Paul faces the Maxx Crosby test · Yardbarker — Dolphins vs Raiders Week 1 preview
MIA
-3.3
LV
-6.0
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 1 card free, every game priced against our model.
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Dolphins
50%
model win prob
Raiders
50%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
32%
Madden 27
68%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Raiders −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Raiders −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Raiders −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Raiders −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Raiders −6.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 more rungsRaiders −7.5 → Raiders −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
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Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Raiders rate -6.0 (32nd of 32), the Dolphins -3.3 (28th) — 2.7 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 50%/50%, and this rates as the 1st-closest game of the 16 in Week 1. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 5.7 projected wins for the Raiders against 6.7 for the Dolphins, favored in 1 and 2 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 16th-hardest on the Raiders' schedule and 16th-hardest on the Dolphins'.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Dolphins grade -2.7 on that side of the ball (28th of 32) against a Raiders offense at -4.2 (32nd) — 1.5 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Dolphins offense (-1.4, 26th) meets the Raiders defense (-2.0, 24th), a 0.6-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Dolphins grade +0.8, 6th in the league, against +0.2 (23rd) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
One team has owned this series: the Dolphins are 11-3 in 14 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 4 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2024: Dolphins won 34-19 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Raiders are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Raiders at 50% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13MIALV contract implies 50% for the Raiders against our 50% — a 0.4-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Raiders as the value side.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game model number was 50% for the Raiders. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Raiders | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 50% 50c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 100% 100c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 50% 50c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 50% 50c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Miami Dolphins 13, Las Vegas Raiders 27 — final, played Sunday, September 13, 2026; our pre-game model had this a toss-up (50% on the Dolphins), and the Raiders won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff our power-rating model favored the Raiders by 0 points, a 50% win probability over the Dolphins. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13MIALV market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Because the Raiders (-6.0, 32nd) and Dolphins (-3.3, 28th) are only 2.7 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 50%/50%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13MIALV on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Raiders YES is quoted around 50c against our 50% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Miami Dolphins visit the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, September 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 1, at Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Raiders at 5.7 wins (favored in 1) and the Dolphins at 6.7 (favored in 2). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Raiders' schedule and 16th-hardest on the Dolphins', by model win probability.
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP13MIALV. The Raiders YES contract sits around 50c, which is an implied 50% — against our model's 50%. That is a 0.4pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
This game has been played, so the Week 1 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP13MIALV has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Raiders at 50% over the Dolphins sit in that band, off a 0-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Our model puts it at 50% against a market price implying 50%, an edge of +0.4 points. Model 50% vs market 50% on LV. We pass — no position.
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The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
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