Chargers vs Ravens Prediction β Week 10, Mon Nov 16
Updated Β· model ratings
Monday, November 16, 2026 Β· M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
- Last week: Chargers play Sun 4:05 PM ET vs Texans β preview
- Last week: Ravens play Thu 8:15 PM ET vs Jaguars β preview
Quick Answer
As of October 30, 2026, PredictionMarketsPicks' model favors the Ravens by 6.5 in Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens, NFL Week 10 2026 β 68% to win, and a 3-day rest edge for the Ravens, worth about 0.3 points. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV16LACBAL yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Ravens at 63c or below (or Chargers at 27c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LAC
-3.2
BAL
+1.2
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Chargers
32%
our model
Ravens
68%
our model
Run this matchup yourself β Full PWR board for all 32 β Player prop gaps for this game β Whose number this is β
33%
Madden 27
67%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV16LACBAL hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Ravens at 63c or below, or the Chargers at 27c or below β a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record β
The Ladder β Chargers at Ravens How to read the Ladder β
All ladders βOur margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30β70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0β100Β’
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) Β· hollow = outside the 30β70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; βpaysβ is 100Β’ Γ· cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright β a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Chargers vs Ravens power ratings (Week 10) What PWR measures β
Chargers and Ravens season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings β real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works β
Chargers vs Ravens β player pages
All players βOmarion Hampton
RB
Ladd McConkey
WR
Justin Herbert
QB
Derrick Henry
RB
Zay Flowers
WR
Lamar Jackson
QB
Quentin Johnston
WR
Mark Andrews
TE
Oronde Gadsden II
TE
Keaton Mitchell
RB
Tre Harris
WR
Josh Cuevas
Rashod Bateman
Justice Hill
Ja'Kobi Lane
Charlie Kolar
Nick Vannett
Devontez Walker
Matt Hibner
KeAndre Lambert-Smith
Kimani Vidal
One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
A 3-day rest edge, sized: Chargers at Ravens
The Ravens come in with 3 more days off β 11 days' rest for the Ravens against 8 days' rest for the Chargers. We measured what that is worth across 3,120 games since 2013: about a tenth of a point per day, so roughly 0.3 points here. The market already charges for rest β closing lines move about 0.14 points per day of it β and rested teams have not beaten the close for it. The rest gap is real but small. What moves this game is the 4.4-point ratings gap, which has the Ravens by 6.5, 68% to win.
The Chargers come in off the Texans, the Ravens off the Jaguars. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Ravens grade -1.1 on that side of the ball (17th of 32) against a Chargers offense at -3.5 (32nd) β 2.4 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Ravens offense (+2.0, 10th) meets the Chargers defense (+0.2, 8th), a 1.8-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Ravens at 9.2 wins (favored in 10 of 17) and the Chargers at 4.4 (favored in 3) β 4.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Ravens' schedule and the 5th-hardest on the Chargers'.
Scheduling note: this is a Monday game β the only one on the schedule that day β so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favorites went 68%. The 68% on the Ravens here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV16LACBAL, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Ravens 68%, Chargers 32%. Applying our 5 points floor, that makes Ravens contracts a buy at 63c or below and Chargers contracts a buy at 27c or below β anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks β you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Chargers vs Ravens on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV16LACBAL
- Market-implied (Ravens)
- not listed yet
- Our ratings line (Ravens)
- 68%
- Model vs market
- β
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV16LACBAL yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Ravens at 63c or below, or the Chargers at 27c or below β a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Chargers vs Ravens line history
The earliest line we archived, on Sep 13, had the Ravens β3.5 (DraftKings). The median across 2 books now is the Ravens β3.
| Book | Earliest line we archived | Now | Spread trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Ravens β3.5 Β· O/U 47.5Sep 13 | Ravens β3.5 Β· O/U 47.5 | |
| Caesars | Ravens β3 Β· O/U 47.5Sep 13 | Ravens β3 Β· O/U 47.5 |
Posted spreads and totals as our odds feed recorded them; a row is added only when a book moves its line. βEarliest line we archivedβ is our first capture, which is not necessarily the marketβs open. Spreads are stated for the favorite. The Kalshi price is that exchangeβs own moneyline contract.
Where Chargers vs Ravens trades Why the venues differ β
Each venueβs own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Ravens | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet β opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi β |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig β $50 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer β |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game β US exchange | Sign-up offer β |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood β |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase β |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available β sign-up offer β | Sign-up offer β |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available β sign-up offer β | Sign-up offer β |
A price under a venue name is that venueβs own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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Watch the breakdown: Chargers vs Ravens
Chargers vs Ravens β frequently asked
Who will win Ravens vs Chargers?
Our model has the Ravens at 68% to beat the Chargers in Week 10.
Who is favored in Chargers vs Ravens in Week 10?
Our power-rating model picks the Ravens by 6.5 points, a 68% win probability over the Chargers. The Ravens rate 11th of 32 (+1.2) and the Chargers 28th (-3.2); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV16LACBAL yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Barely. The Ravens have 3 more days off, and across 3,120 games since 2013 a rest day has been worth about a tenth of a point, so roughly 0.3 points here β not the point or two it is often credited with. Closing lines already charge about 0.14 points per rest day, and teams with the edge have not beaten the close for it (48.5% against the spread in the 10-days-vs-7 spot, n=301). The 6.5-point line and 68% win probability are driven by the ratings gap.
How do you take a position on Chargers vs Ravens?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV16LACBAL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Ravens at 63c or below, or the Chargers at 27c or below. There is no point spread β you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Ravens host the Chargers?
Los Angeles Chargers visit the Baltimore Ravens on Monday, November 16, 2026 β a Monday game in NFL Week 10, at M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD.
What does the model project for the Ravens and Chargers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Ravens at 9.2 wins (favored in 10) and the Chargers at 4.4 (favored in 3). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Ravens' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Chargers', by win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Chargers vs Ravens?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV16LACBAL yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game β anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Ravens at 63c or below or the Chargers at 27c or below, off a 6.5-point line.
Can you trade Chargers vs Ravens on Kalshi?
Yes β as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, and the Week 10 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV16LACBAL. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 68% on a team like the Ravens?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 β trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input β the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Ravens at 68% over the Chargers sit in that band, off a 6.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game β result, hit or miss, closing-line value β so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
What happens on Kalshi if Chargers vs Ravens ends in a tie?
Your position is not voided. On a team contract with no Tie strike listed, Yes and No holders are each paid 50c a contract, and overtime counts toward the result. A player prop on someone who never plays settles at the last fair price rather than refunding, and a game postponed more than 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Every rule is at predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi/settlement-rules.
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