Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Seahawks by 8 in Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks, NFL Week 4 2026 — 72% to win, and the 1st-widest model gap in Week 4. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04LACSEA yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Seahawks at 67c or below (or Chargers at 23c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LAC
-0.4
SEA
+5.2
Chargers
28%
model win prob
Seahawks
72%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26OCT04LACSEAhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Seahawks at 67c or below, or the Chargers at 23c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Why the model has the Seahawks by 8
The model does not think this one is close. The Seahawks rate 3rd of 32 at +5.2, the Chargers 17th at -0.4, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Seahawks by 8 — 72% to win. That is the 1st-widest gap among the 16 games on the Week 4 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Chargers need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Seahawks grade +1.8 on that side of the ball (4th of 32) against a Chargers offense at -0.7 (22nd) — 2.4 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Seahawks offense (+2.3, 7th) meets the Chargers defense (-0.1, 10th), a 2.3-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.2, 2nd in the league, against +0.4 (18th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Seahawks at 10.8 wins (favored in 16 of 17) and the Chargers at 8.2 (favored in 9) — 2.7 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 13th-hardest game on the Seahawks' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Chargers'.
The series is dead level: 3-3 across 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Seahawks won 37-23 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Seahawks are 2-2. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 8 Seattle home games in October since 2015, the median temperature was 58°F and the median wind 5 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 312 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 70-75% range won 71% of those. So a 72% Seahawks number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 29 times in 100 — which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.
There is no market to compare against yet — Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04LACSEA — and we are not going to invent a price. What the model will say when it opens: Seahawks YES is only worth buying at 67c or below, which is a demanding ask on a side the model already has at 72%. The likelier position on a game this lopsided is the Chargers at 23c or below, where the payoff does the work. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Chargers vs Seahawks — frequently asked
Who is favored in Chargers vs Seahawks in Week 4?
Our power-rating model favors the Seahawks by 8 points, a 72% win probability over the Chargers. The Seahawks rate 3rd of 32 (+5.2) and the Chargers 17th (-0.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04LACSEA yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What would it take for the Chargers to win?
The 8-point line comes from a 5.6-point rating gap, and a single-game margin has roughly a 13.5-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Chargers still project at 28% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the unit matchup they win on paper. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
How do you take a position on Chargers vs Seahawks?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT04LACSEA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Seahawks at 67c or below, or the Chargers at 23c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Seahawks host the Chargers?
Los Angeles Chargers visit the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, October 4, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 4, at Lumen Field, Seattle, WA.
What does the model project for the Seahawks and Chargers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Seahawks at 10.8 wins (favored in 16) and the Chargers at 8.2 (favored in 9). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Seahawks' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Chargers', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 72% on a team like the Seahawks?
71% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 70-75% range 312 times, and those teams won 71% of them. The Seahawks at 72% over the Chargers sit in that band, off a 8-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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