Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, October 4, 2026): Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30 — NFL Week 4, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Seahawks by 7 (73% to win); the Seahawks won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Seahawks at 76c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30Final
Model call: HITOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Seahawks by 7 (73% to win). The Seahawks won — that call landed.
Closing-line value on the Seahawks: +2c — we archived the Seahawks at 74c on Sep 28; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 76c on Oct 4. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.
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No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Both quarterbacks threw an interception on their first snap, the first time that had happened since at least 1991, per Sportradar. Then the Chargers muffed a punt and Sam Darnold hit Emanuel Wilson for a touchdown on the next play. Seattle led 27-6 in the third quarter. Los Angeles turned it over four times, Justin Herbert was sacked four times, and the Chargers are 0-4. Seattle was flagged 14 times for 150 yards, a franchise record, and the Chargers pulled within seven with 2:14 left before fumbling on their final drive. Wilson, with rookie Jadarian Price on injured reserve, scored twice.
Chargers 23—Seahawks 30
Final✓ Call hitThe chip reads a hit. Our stored probability had Seattle at 73.2%, the market’s number anchored at weight zero to a seven-point line, and the Seahawks won. The model’s own read was Seattle by 8.0, one point past the market, tier NONE. There is no game-line position on this game. A LOW-tier Seahawks game-winner row was captured but never published, and it was voided on 2026-10-07 for that reason; it is not a record, win or loss. The player board carried no PLAY row. Five WATCH rows went 2-3, graded apart from the record. Darnold over 1.5 touchdown passes and Omarion Hampton over 1.5 catches won. Herbert under 19.5 and 24.5 rushing yards lost (he ran for 40), and Keaton Mitchell under 1.5 catches lost (he caught five).
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that won. The total fell 2 to 43.5; the game landed on 53.
Q1
Drake Thomas intercepted Herbert on the Chargers’ first play, and Tuli Tuipulotu intercepted Darnold on Seattle’s first. Cameron Dicker kicked a 40-yard field goal off the second turnover. Derius Davis then muffed a punt, Connor O’Toole recovered at the Chargers’ 23, and Darnold hit Wilson for the touchdown on the next play.
Q3
Rashid Shaheed ran 28 yards for a touchdown, though Jason Myers missed the extra point. Ernest Jones IV intercepted Herbert in the last two minutes of the half, and Wilson scored from eight two plays later. Dicker hit a 39-yarder at the gun. Seattle opened the second half with a 68-yard drive, Darnold finding Tory Horton from six for 27-6.
Q4
Herbert hit Kimani Vidal from nine to end an 81-yard drive, and after a Myers field goal the Chargers went 85 yards in 16 plays, Hampton scoring from two to make it 30-20 with 7:48 left. Dicker’s 36-yarder made it 30-23 with 2:14 left. The Chargers got the ball back at their own 11 and lost a fumble three plays later.
Reporting verified 2026-10-09. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Emanuel Wilson sparks Seahawks past Chargers 30-23 · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line
Los Angeles is 0-3 with the league’s 29th-ranked scoring offense and a coach who told his quarterback in public to be better; Seattle is 2-1 and coming off a 33–31 home loss in which Sam Darnold threw for a career-high 379 yards and two interceptions. The game turns on whether Herbert, playing with a new left guard and possibly without his best receiver, can produce the explosive play Seattle has allowed fewer of than anyone — and on whether a Chargers secondary with three starters questionable can do anything about the receiver who leads the NFL in catches, yards and touchdowns.
Injury and practice participation
The Chargers ruled out guard Kayode Awosika, tight end Charlie Kolar, receiver Brenen Thompson and defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson, and listed Derwin James, Donte Jackson, Ladd McConkey, Elijah Molden and backup quarterback Trey Lance as questionable — McConkey, the team’s leading receiver, was limited Friday with a foot. Trevor Penning starts at left guard. Seattle ruled out running back Jadarian Price with a chest injury, Zach Charbonnet cannot come off the physically-unable list until Week 5, and safety Julian Love returns after missing Week 3. Darnold and Herbert are not on either report.
Source: chargers.com — Week 4 injury report vs. Seahawks (2026-10-02)
Chargers pass offense · Seahawks pressure and coverage
Herbert has three touchdowns against four interceptions, a 73.4 passer rating and eight sacks taken, and the offense around him ranks 31st in expected points per play; Los Angeles has been outscored 33–3 in fourth quarters. Seattle is the wrong week to fix that. The Seahawks are third in defensive EPA per play, have allowed five explosive passes all season — fewest in the league — and have seven sacks spread across Leonard Williams, DeMarcus Lawrence and Jarran Reed, with four interceptions behind them. Harbaugh is 1-4 on the road against Seattle and his team practised with crowd noise all week; the pitch for the Chargers is Herbert’s arm against a secondary that is still "ramping up" rookie Nick Emmanwori, and the pitch against them is everything else.
Source: chargers.com — Seahawks game preview, Week 4 (2026-10-02)
Seahawks pass offense · Chargers coverage
Smith-Njigba leads the NFL with 27 catches, 405 yards and six touchdowns, and a fourth straight 100-yard game would tie the franchise record. The Chargers’ depth chart lists "Tarheeb Still or Cam Hart" at one corner and "Donte Jackson or Cam Hart" at the other; Jackson is questionable after a concussion, Hart has been described by the team’s own beat as struggling, and undrafted rookie Rodney Shelley is next up. Derwin James being questionable removes the one safety who could shade the slot. The honest counter is Darnold himself: 379 yards came with two interceptions and the Seahawks lost that game, and Seattle’s run game without Price is Emanuel Wilson at 3.4 a carry.
Source: SI — Jaxon Smith-Njigba on a nuclear pace in 2026 (2026-09-28)
Reporting verified 2026-10-03. Further sources: chargers.com — Week 4 injury report vs. Seahawks (2026-10-02) · seahawks.com — Week 4 injury report, Seahawks vs. Chargers (2026-10-02) · NBC Sports — Chargers list Derwin James, Ladd McConkey, Trey Lance as questionable (2026-10-02) · Seattle Sports — Seahawks injury report: Price out, two questionable vs. Chargers (2026-10-02) · seahawks.com — Julian Love set to return for Week 4 vs. Chargers (2026-10-02) · chargers.com — Seahawks game preview, Week 4 (2026-10-02) · chargers.com — 2026 depth chart (2026-09-29) · seahawks.com — Darnold throws for career-high 379 yards in return, laments turnovers (2026-09-27) · SI — Jaxon Smith-Njigba on a nuclear pace in 2026 (2026-09-28) · NFL.com — Harbaugh challenges Herbert to “be better” after 0-3 start (2026-09-28) · Bolt Beat — The Chargers’ game plan has to dial in on Jaxon Smith-Njigba (2026-10-01) · National Weather Service — Seattle forecast (read 2026-10-02)
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
LAC
-3.2
SEA
+4.1
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Chargers
27%
fair value (books)
Seahawks
73%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
41%
Madden 27
59%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Omarion Hampton
RB
Ladd McConkey
WR
Justin Herbert
QB
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR
Quentin Johnston
WR
Sam Darnold
QB
Oronde Gadsden II
TE
Rashid Shaheed
WR
Keaton Mitchell
RB
Zach Charbonnet
RB
AJ Barner
TE
Emanuel Wilson
RB
Tre Harris
WR
Charlie Kolar
Kimani Vidal
KeAndre Lambert-Smith
Cooper Kupp
Eric Saubert
George Holani
SEA Seahawks D/ST
Tory Horton
One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30 — the graded call is above.
The model does not think this one is close. The Seahawks rate 1st of 32 at +4.1, the Chargers 28th at -3.2, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Seahawks by 8 — 71% to win. That is the widest gap among the 16 games on the Week 4 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Chargers need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Seahawks grade +2.3 on that side of the ball (2nd of 32) against a Chargers offense at -3.5 (32nd) — 5.8 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Seahawks offense (+0.6, 14th) meets the Chargers defense (+0.2, 8th), a 0.4-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.1, 1st in the league, against +0.1 (26th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Seahawks at 10.1 wins (favored in 14 of 17) and the Chargers at 4.4 (favored in 3) — 5.7 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Seahawks' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the Chargers'. Nothing on the Chargers' schedule projects harder than this one.
The series is dead level: 3-3 across 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Seahawks won 37-23 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Seahawks are 2-2. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 8 Seattle home games in October since 2015, the median temperature was 58°F and the median wind 5 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 312 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 70-75% range won 71% of those. So a 71% Seahawks number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 29 times in 100 — which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT04LACSEA, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 73% for the Seahawks. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Seahawks | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 76% 76c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game — US exchange | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30 — final, played Sunday, October 4, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Seahawks by 7 (73% to win), and the Seahawks won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Seahawks by 7 points, a 73% win probability over the Chargers. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT04LACSEA market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
The 8-point line comes from a 7.3-point rating gap, 2.5 points of home field, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Chargers still project at 27% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the unit matchup they win on paper. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT04LACSEA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Seahawks at 71c or below, or the Chargers at 25c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Los Angeles Chargers visit the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, October 4, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 4, at Lumen Field, Seattle, WA.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Seahawks at 10.1 wins (favored in 14) and the Chargers at 4.4 (favored in 3). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Seahawks' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Chargers', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT04LACSEA, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 4 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT04LACSEA has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
71% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 70-75% range 312 times, and those teams won 71% of them. The Seahawks at 71% over the Chargers sit in that band, off a 8-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Our model puts it at 27% against a market price implying 24%, an edge of +2.8 points. Model 27% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 24% on LAC — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.
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Steelers at BrownsModel: Browns −2
Colts at CommandersModel: Colts −5
Titans at RavensModel: Ravens −7.5
Patriots at BillsModel: Bills −2.5
Jets at BearsModel: Bears −2.5
Jaguars at BengalsModel: Jaguars −0.5
Cowboys at TexansModel: Texans −2.5
Cardinals at GiantsModel: Cardinals −0.5
Rams at EaglesModel: Rams −0.5
Packers at BuccaneersModel: Packers −3.5
Dolphins at VikingsModel: Vikings −5
Chiefs at RaidersModel: Chiefs −0.5
Broncos at 49ersModel: 49ers −3.5
Lions at PanthersModel: even
Falcons at SaintsModel: Saints −2The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
One of 64 games in the first-quarter report
Every Week 1–4 game, with the opening and closing line, in one book. Read the report →
