Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Chargers
36%
model win prob
Seahawks
64%
model win prob
Model line
Seahawks −5
Kalshi (Seahawks)
—
Edge
pending
Model favors the Seahawks — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff
KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.
Power-rating comparison
The prediction-market read
In Week 4, the Los Angeles Chargers travel to face the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field, Seattle, WA. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Seahawks 3rd of 32 (Playoff tier, +2.7) and the Chargers 14th (Average tier, +0.3). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Seahawks by 5 — a 64% win probability for the Seahawks.
Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 64% (Seahawks) / 36% (Chargers) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Chargers vs Seahawks — frequently asked
Who is favored in Chargers vs Seahawks in Week 4?
Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Seahawks by 5 points and gives them a 64% win probability over the Chargers. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.
What does the model project for Chargers vs Seahawks?
Home win probability 64% (Seahawks), away 36% (Chargers). That comes from a power-rating differential of +2.5 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Seahawks rate 3rd of 32 (Playoff tier), the Chargers 14th (Average tier).
Can you trade Chargers vs Seahawks on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.
When and where do the Seahawks host the Chargers?
Los Angeles Chargers visit the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, October 4, 2026 in NFL Week 4, at Lumen Field, Seattle, WA.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.