Denver Broncos vs New York Jets
Sunday, December 13, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Broncos by 2.5 in Denver Broncos vs New York Jets, NFL Week 14 2026 — 58% to win, and a 7-day rest edge for the Jets, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13DENNYJ yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Jets at 37c or below (or Broncos at 53c or below) is where the model would take a position.
DEN
+1.2
NYJ
-4.0
Broncos
58%
model win prob
Jets
42%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC13DENNYJhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Jets at 37c or below, or the Broncos at 53c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Rest first, ratings second: Broncos at Jets
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Jets come in with 7 more days off than the other side — 14 days' rest for the Jets against 7 days' rest for the Broncos. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Broncos by 2.5 (58%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 7-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Broncos come in off the Dolphins, the Jets off the Dolphins. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Broncos grade +0.4 on that side of the ball (8th of 32) against a Jets offense at -3.1 (30th) — 3.5 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Broncos offense (+0.6, 16th) meets the Jets defense (-2.2, 27th), a 2.8-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jets grade +1.3, 1st in the league, against +0.2 (25th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Jets at 6.5 wins (favored in 4 of 17) and the Broncos at 9.0 (favored in 9) — 2.6 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 13th-hardest game on the Jets' schedule and the 12th-hardest on the Broncos'.
Recent history, for context only: 14 regular-season meetings since 2002, 9-5 in the Broncos' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Broncos won 13-11 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Jets are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Broncos at 58% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC13DENNYJ is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 42% / 58% — the tradable window is narrow: Jets at 37c or below, Broncos at 53c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Broncos vs Jets — frequently asked
Who is favored in Broncos vs Jets in Week 14?
Our power-rating model favors the Broncos by 2.5 points, a 58% win probability over the Jets. The Jets rate 31st of 32 (-4.0) and the Broncos 13th (+1.2); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13DENNYJ yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Jets have 7 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 2.5-point line or the 58% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Broncos vs Jets?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC13DENNYJ on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jets at 37c or below, or the Broncos at 53c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Jets host the Broncos?
Denver Broncos visit the New York Jets on Sunday, December 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 14, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.
What does the model project for the Jets and Broncos this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Jets at 6.5 wins (favored in 4) and the Broncos at 9.0 (favored in 9). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Jets' schedule and 12th-hardest on the Broncos', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 58% on a team like the Broncos?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Broncos at 58% over the Jets sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.