Denver Broncos vs New York Jets
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, December 13, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Broncos by 3 in Denver Broncos vs New York Jets, NFL Week 14 2026 — 58% to win, and a 7-day rest edge for the Jets, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13DENNYJ yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Jets at 37c or below (or Broncos at 53c or below) is where the model would take a position.
DEN
+1.2
NYJ
-4.0
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Broncos
58%
model win prob
Jets
42%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
57%
Madden 27
43%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26DEC13DENNYJ hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Jets at 37c or below, or the Broncos at 53c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Broncos at Jets
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jets −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jets −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jets −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jets −4.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 more rungsJets −6.5 → Jets −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
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Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Rest first, ratings second: Broncos at Jets
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Jets come in with 7 more days off than the other side — 14 days' rest for the Jets against 7 days' rest for the Broncos. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Broncos by 3 (58%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 7-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Broncos come in off the Dolphins, the Jets off the Dolphins. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Broncos grade +0.4 on that side of the ball (8th of 32) against a Jets offense at -3.1 (30th) — 3.5 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Broncos offense (+0.6, 16th) meets the Jets defense (-2.1, 26th), a 2.8-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jets grade +1.3, 1st in the league, against +0.2 (25th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Jets at 6.7 wins (favored in 4 of 17) and the Broncos at 9.1 (favored in 9) — 2.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 13th-hardest game on the Jets' schedule and the 12th-hardest on the Broncos'.
Recent history, for context only: 14 regular-season meetings since 2002, 9-5 in the Broncos' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Broncos won 13-11 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Jets are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Broncos at 58% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC13DENNYJ is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 42% / 58% — the tradable window is narrow: Jets at 37c or below, Broncos at 53c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Broncos vs Jets on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26DEC13DENNYJ
- Market-implied (Jets)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Jets)
- 42%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13DENNYJ yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Jets at 37c or below, or the Broncos at 53c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Broncos vs Jets trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Jets | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Broncos vs Jets — frequently asked
Who is favored in Broncos vs Jets in Week 14?
Our power-rating model picks the Broncos by 3 points, a 58% win probability over the Jets, for a projected score of Broncos 23, Jets 20 on a ratings-implied 43.2-point total. The Jets rate 31st of 32 (-4.0) and the Broncos 12th (+1.2); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13DENNYJ yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Jets have 7 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 3-point line or the 58% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Broncos vs Jets?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC13DENNYJ on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jets at 37c or below, or the Broncos at 53c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Jets host the Broncos?
Denver Broncos visit the New York Jets on Sunday, December 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 14, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.
What does the model project for the Jets and Broncos this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Jets at 6.7 wins (favored in 4) and the Broncos at 9.1 (favored in 9). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Jets' schedule and 12th-hardest on the Broncos', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Broncos vs Jets?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13DENNYJ yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Jets at 37c or below or the Broncos at 53c or below, off a 3-point line.
Can you trade Broncos vs Jets on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 14 game market is KXNFLGAME-26DEC13DENNYJ. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 58% on a team like the Broncos?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Broncos at 58% over the Jets sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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