Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, December 27, 2026 · M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Ravens by 6 in Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens, NFL Week 16 2026 — 66% to win, and the second AFC North meeting of the year. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CLEBAL yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Ravens at 61c or below (or Browns at 29c or below) is where the model would take a position.
CLE
-2.3
BAL
+1.2
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Browns
34%
model win prob
Ravens
66%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
24%
Madden 27
76%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CLEBAL hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Ravens at 61c or below, or the Browns at 29c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Browns at Ravens
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Ravens −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Ravens −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Ravens −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Ravens −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Ravens −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Ravens −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Ravens −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Ravens −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Ravens −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Ravens −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
The rematch: what the model sees the second time around
This is the second meeting. The Browns and Ravens already played in Week 6, and now the Browns make the return trip in Week 16. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: +1.2 against -2.3, plus home field, equals the Ravens by 6 (66%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings — a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Ravens grade -0.3 on that side of the ball (11th of 32) against a Browns offense at -4.0 (31st) — 3.7 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Ravens offense (+1.0, 12th) meets the Browns defense (+1.9, 3rd), a 0.8-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Ravens +0.4 (15th of 32) to -0.2 (31st).
On the standings side, AFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 6, so a season sweep is on the table here on the AFC North race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Ravens at 9.2 wins (favored in 10 of 17) and the Browns at 7.8 (favored in 6) — 1.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Ravens' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Browns'.
One team has owned this series: the Ravens are 35-13 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2025: Ravens won 23-16 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Ravens are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 66% on the Ravens here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CLEBAL, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Ravens 66%, Browns 34%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Ravens contracts a buy at 61c or below and Browns contracts a buy at 29c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC North hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Browns vs Ravens on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CLEBAL
- Market-implied (Ravens)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Ravens)
- 66%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CLEBAL yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Ravens at 61c or below, or the Browns at 29c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Browns vs Ravens trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Ravens | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Browns vs Ravens — frequently asked
Who is favored in Browns vs Ravens in Week 16?
Our power-rating model picks the Ravens by 6 points, a 66% win probability over the Browns, for a projected score of Ravens 23, Browns 17 on a ratings-implied 39.5-point total. The Ravens rate 13th of 32 (+1.2) and the Browns 26th (-2.3); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CLEBAL yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC North result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC North teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 6. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Ravens by 6 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Browns vs Ravens?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CLEBAL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Ravens at 61c or below, or the Browns at 29c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Ravens host the Browns?
Cleveland Browns visit the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, December 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 16, at M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD.
What does the model project for the Ravens and Browns this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Ravens at 9.2 wins (favored in 10) and the Browns at 7.8 (favored in 6). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Ravens' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Browns', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Browns vs Ravens?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CLEBAL yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Ravens at 61c or below or the Browns at 29c or below, off a 6-point line.
Can you trade Browns vs Ravens on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 16 game market is KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CLEBAL. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 66% on a team like the Ravens?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Ravens at 66% over the Browns sit in that band, off a 6-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 6. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Browns–Ravens, Week 6 →
More Week 16 matchups
Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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