Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, December 27, 2026 · M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Ravens by 6 in Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens, NFL Week 16 2026 — 67% to win, and the second AFC North meeting of the year. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CLEBAL yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Ravens at 62c or below (or Browns at 28c or below) is where the model would take a position.
CLE
-2.0
BAL
+1.3
Browns
33%
model win prob
Ravens
67%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CLEBALhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Ravens at 62c or below, or the Browns at 28c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
The rematch: what the model sees the second time around
This is the second meeting. The Browns and Ravens already played in Week 6, and now the Browns make the return trip in Week 16. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: +1.3 against -2.0, plus home field, equals the Ravens by 6 (67%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings — a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Ravens grade -0.3 on that side of the ball (12th of 32) against a Browns offense at -3.7 (31st) — 3.4 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Ravens offense (+1.2, 11th) meets the Browns defense (+1.9, 3rd), a 0.7-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Ravens +0.4 (15th of 32) to -0.2 (31st).
On the standings side, AFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 6, so a season sweep is on the table here on the AFC North race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Ravens at 9.3 wins (favored in 10 of 17) and the Browns at 7.9 (favored in 6) — 1.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Ravens' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Browns'.
One team has owned this series: the Ravens are 35-13 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2025: Ravens won 23-16 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Ravens are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 67% on the Ravens here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CLEBAL, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Ravens 67%, Browns 33%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Ravens contracts a buy at 62c or below and Browns contracts a buy at 28c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC North hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Browns vs Ravens — frequently asked
Who is favored in Browns vs Ravens in Week 16?
Our power-rating model favors the Ravens by 6 points, a 67% win probability over the Browns. The Ravens rate 12th of 32 (+1.3) and the Browns 25th (-2.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CLEBAL yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC North result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC North teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 6. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Ravens by 6 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Browns vs Ravens?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CLEBAL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Ravens at 62c or below, or the Browns at 28c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Ravens host the Browns?
Cleveland Browns visit the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, December 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 16, at M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD.
What does the model project for the Ravens and Browns this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Ravens at 9.3 wins (favored in 10) and the Browns at 7.9 (favored in 6). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Ravens' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Browns', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 67% on a team like the Ravens?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Ravens at 67% over the Browns sit in that band, off a 6-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 6. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Browns–Ravens, Week 6 →
More Week 16 matchups
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