Week 6 · The Ladder
Every Kalshi strike, against our whole distribution
A point estimate cannot tell a trader whether to take a position. The full distribution against the contract ladder can, and it says something no single-row board does: not just that we disagree, but whether we disagree about the middle or only about the tail.
This week on the boardNFL Week 6 predictions →Week 7 predictions →Week 5 results →
Week 6 gamesSeahawks at BroncosTexans at JaguarsBears at FalconsRavens at BrownsTitans at ColtsJets at PatriotsSaints at GiantsPanthers at EaglesSteelers at BuccaneersCardinals at RamsChargers at ChiefsBills at RaidersCowboys at PackersCommanders at 49ers
Quick Answer
the widest published gap on this week's ladders is Chiefs season wins at 11+ wins, a location disagreement; across 26 ladders with a verdict, 0 are shape, 11 are location and 15 are priced.
14 game spread ladders · 32 season-win ladders · 26 player-prop ladders.
Our number is published only between 30% and 70%, where it is measured to be calibrated; rungs outside show the market only.
SHAPE = the gap changes sign across the ladder. LOCATION = every rung leans one way. PRICED = under five points everywhere.
Game spreads
Our stored margin model for each game against every live Kalshi spread strike. Above zero is the home side laying points; below zero is the home side taking them.
Kalshi prices Browns +5.5 at 52¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- −14.5Browns—outside band
- −13.5Browns—outside band
- −10.5Browns—outside band
- −9.5Browns—outside band
- −7.5Browns—outside band
- −6.5Browns—outside band
- −5.5Browns——
- −4.5Browns—outside band
- −3.5Browns—outside band
- −2.5Browns—outside band
- −1.5Browns—outside band
- +1.5Browns——
- +2.5Browns——
- +3.5Browns——
- +4.5Browns——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects +5.1
- +5.5Browns——
- +6.5Browns——
- +7.5Browns——
- +9.5Browns——
- +10.5Browns——
- +13.5Browns——
- +14.5Browns—outside band
- +16.5Browns—outside band
- +17.5Browns—outside band
- +20.5Browns—outside band
We think the median sits somewhere else than the market does.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices Patriots −6.5 at 54¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- −27.5Patriots——
- −23.5Patriots——
- −20.5Patriots——
- −17.5Patriots——
- −16.5Patriots——
- −14.5Patriots——
- −13.5Patriots——
- −10.5Patriots——
- −9.5Patriots——
- −7.5Patriots——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects by 7.0
- −6.5Patriots——
- −5.5Patriots——
- −4.5Patriots——
- −3.5Patriots——
- −2.5Patriots——
- −1.5Patriots—outside band
- +1.5Patriots—outside band
- +2.5Patriots—outside band
- +3.5Patriots—outside band
- +4.5Patriots—outside band
- +5.5Patriots—outside band
- +6.5Patriots—outside band
- +7.5Patriots—outside band
- +9.5Patriots—outside band
- +10.5Patriots—outside band
- +13.5Patriots—outside band
- +14.5Patriots—outside band
Priced. The market and the model tell the same story at every rung.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices Raiders +4.5 at 50¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- −14.5Raiders—outside band
- −13.5Raiders—outside band
- −10.5Raiders—outside band
- −9.5Raiders—outside band
- −7.5Raiders—outside band
- −6.5Raiders—outside band
- −5.5Raiders——
- −4.5Raiders—outside band
- −3.5Raiders—outside band
- −2.5Raiders——
- −1.5Raiders——
- +1.5Raiders——
- +2.5Raiders——
- +3.5Raiders——
- +4.5Raiders——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects +4.7
- +5.5Raiders——
- +6.5Raiders——
- +7.5Raiders——
- +9.5Raiders——
- +10.5Raiders—outside band
- +13.5Raiders—outside band
- +14.5Raiders—outside band
- +16.5Raiders—outside band
- +17.5Raiders—outside band
- +20.5Raiders—outside band
- +23.5Raiders—outside band
- +27.5Raiders—outside band
Priced. The market and the model tell the same story at every rung.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
- Chargers at ChiefsSpread · Chiefs −6.5PRICED🔒
- Commanders at 49ersSpread · 49ers −2.5PRICED🔒
- Seahawks at BroncosSpread · Broncos +3.5PRICED🔒
- Steelers at BuccaneersSpread · Buccaneers +3.5PRICED🔒
- Saints at GiantsSpread · Giants +1.5PRICED🔒
- Panthers at EaglesSpread · Eagles +1.5PRICED🔒
- Titans at ColtsSpread · Colts −13.5PRICED🔒
- Cowboys at PackersSpread · Packers −4.5PRICED🔒
- Cardinals at RamsSpread · Rams −10.5PRICED🔒
- Texans at JaguarsSpread · Jaguars −3.5PRICED🔒
- Bears at FalconsSpreadQB HOLD—
Season win totals
A 10,000-season simulation on our own power ratings against each club's seventeen-rung Kalshi win-total ladder. The rungs the market has not listed two-sided yet are drawn from the sim alone.
Kalshi prices 3+ wins at 47¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 17+winsthin—outside band
- 13+winsthin—outside band
- 12+winsthin—outside band
- 11+winsthin—outside band
- 10+winsthin—outside band
- 9+winsthin—outside band
- 8+winsthin—outside band
- 7+wins—outside band
- 6+wins—outside band
- 5+wins——
- 4+wins——
- 3+wins—outside band
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 2–3
- 2+wins—outside band
- 1+wins—outside band
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 11+ wins at 56¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 17+winsthin—outside band
- 16+winsthin—outside band
- 15+winsthin—outside band
- 14+wins—outside band
- 13+wins—outside band
- 12+wins—outside band
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 11–12
- 11+wins—outside band
- 10+wins——
- 9+wins——
- 8+wins—outside band
- 7+wins—outside band
- 6+winsthin—outside band
- 5+winsthin—outside band
- 4+winsthin—outside band
- 3+winsthin—outside band
- 2+winsthin—outside band
- 1+winsthin—outside band
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 13+ wins at 52¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 17+winsthin—outside band
- 16+wins—outside band
- 15+wins—outside band
- 14+wins—outside band
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 13–14
- 13+wins—outside band
- 12+wins——
- 11+wins——
- 10+wins—outside band
- 9+wins—outside band
- 8+wins—outside band
- 7+winsthin—outside band
- 6+winsthin—outside band
- 5+winsthin—outside band
- 4+winsthin—outside band
- 3+winsthin—outside band
- 2+winsthin—outside band
- 1+winsthin—outside band
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
- ChiefsSeason wins · 11+ winsLOCATION🔒
- GiantsSeason wins · 11+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- CardinalsSeason wins · 5+ winsLOCATION🔒
- BrownsSeason wins · 9+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- RavensSeason wins · 12+ winsLOCATION🔒
- CowboysSeason wins · 9+ winsLOCATION🔒
- JetsSeason wins · 8+ winsLOCATION🔒
- TexansSeason wins · 8+ winsLOCATION🔒
- LionsSeason wins · 10+ winsLOCATION🔒
- PackersSeason wins · 9+ winsLOCATION🔒
- TitansSeason wins · 4+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- SaintsSeason wins · 7+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- BuccaneersSeason wins · 7+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- FalconsSeason wins · 9+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- SteelersSeason wins · 9+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- JaguarsSeason wins · 12+ winsLOCATION🔒
- RaidersSeason wins · 8+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- 49ersSeason wins · 13+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- VikingsSeason wins · 12+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- ChargersSeason wins · 6+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- PanthersSeason wins · 9+ winsLOCATION🔒
- BroncosSeason wins · 11+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- PatriotsSeason wins · 11+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- EaglesSeason wins · 9+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- BearsSeason wins · 10+ winsPRICED🔒
- BengalsSeason wins · 10+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- CommandersSeason wins · 6+ winsPRICED🔒
- SeahawksSeason wins · 12+ winsPRICED🔒
- ColtsSeason wins · 8+ winsMARKET READ🔒
Player props
The Kalshi prop market at every listed strike beside the the books’ consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called. Receiving yards are held while the passing and receiving sides of the projection are reconciled.
Kalshi prices 2+ rec at 38¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 3+rec——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 1–2
- 2+rec40¢—
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 2+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 63¢, the books imply 60¢ — 2.6 points below the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 4+ rec at 41¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 7+rec——
- 6+rec——
- 4+rec42¢—
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 3–4
- 3+rec61¢—
- 2+rec——
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 4+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 60¢, the books imply 58¢ — 1.6 points below the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 5+ rec at 42¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 8+rec——
- 7+rec——
- 6+rec——
- 5+rec43¢—
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 4–5
- 4+rec61¢—
- 3+rec——
- 2+rec——
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 5+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 59¢, the books imply 57¢ — 1.5 points below the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
- AJ BarnerReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Cooper KuppReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Emanuel WilsonReceptions · 3+ recMARKET READ—
- George HolaniReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Rashid ShaheedReceptions · 3+ recMARKET READ—
- Troy FranklinReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Evan EngramReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Tory HortonReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceptionsMARKET READ—
- RJ HarveyReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Bo NixPass AttMARKET READ—
- Bo NixCompletionsMARKET READ—
- Bo NixInterceptionsMARKET READ—
- Bo NixRush AttMARKET READ—
- Emanuel WilsonRush AttMARKET READ—
- Emanuel WilsonRush+Rec YdsMARKET READ—
- George HolaniRush+Rec YdsMARKET READ—
- J.K. DobbinsRush AttMARKET READ—
- RJ HarveyRush AttMARKET READ—
- RJ HarveyRush+Rec YdsMARKET READ—
- Sam DarnoldPass AttMARKET READ—
- Sam DarnoldCompletionsMARKET READ—
- Sam DarnoldInterceptionsMARKET READ—
MCP · nfl_ladder
The Ladder FAQ
What is The Ladder?
Kalshi lists a ladder of strikes for a game spread, a season win total and a player prop — several contracts on one question at different thresholds. We hold a full probability distribution for each question, so The Ladder pairs our probability with the market price at every listed strike and draws both curves. A single-row board tells you that we disagree at one strike; the ladder shows whether we disagree about the middle of the distribution or only about its tail.
What do SHAPE, LOCATION and PRICED mean?
They are derived from the gaps across the ladder, not written by hand. SHAPE means the gap changes sign as the strike rises: we agree with the market about the middle and disagree about the tail. LOCATION means every rung leans the same way: we think the median sits somewhere else. PRICED means no rung differs by more than five points, so the market and the model tell the same story. We print PRICED on purpose; it is what makes the other two credible.
Why are some rungs greyed out with no model number?
We only publish our probability where we have measured it to be calibrated. On 7,569 graded prop samples the display probability lands within about two and a half points of reality between 30% and 70%; above 70% the sample is small and the misses are large. So a rung whose model probability falls outside that range still shows the market price, but never carries our number and never becomes the headline gap.
Where does the data come from?
The spread ladder is our stored margin model for each game against the live Kalshi spread series. The season-wins ladder is a 10,000-season simulation on our own power ratings against each team’s Kalshi win-total ladder. The prop ladder is the Kalshi prop market at every listed strike beside the the books’ consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called. Nothing is a live vendor quote; every price is a Kalshi contract you can open.
Which parts are free?
The picture and the verdict on every ladder are free for everyone. The rung-by-rung numbers follow the same free window as the prop board, and after it they are part of Pro.