Week 1 · The Ladder
Every Kalshi strike, against our whole distribution
A point estimate cannot tell a trader whether to take a position. The full distribution against the contract ladder can, and it says something no single-row board does: not just that we disagree, but whether we disagree about the middle or only about the tail.
Quick Answer
the widest published gap on this week's ladders is Dolphins season wins at 6+ wins, a location disagreement; across 48 ladders with a verdict, 8 are shape, 33 are location and 7 are priced.
16 game spread ladders · 32 season-win ladders · 63 player-prop ladders.
Our number is published only between 30% and 70%, where it is measured to be calibrated; rungs outside show the market only.
SHAPE = the gap changes sign across the ladder. LOCATION = every rung leans one way. PRICED = under five points everywhere.
Game spreads
Our stored margin model for each game against every live Kalshi spread strike. Above zero is the home side laying points; below zero is the home side taking them.
We think the median sits somewhere else than the market does.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings +16.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → |
| Vikings +14.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → |
| Vikings +13.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → |
| Vikings +10.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → |
| Vikings +9.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → |
| Vikings +7.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → |
| Vikings +6.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → |
| Vikings +5.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → |
| Vikings +4.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → |
| Vikings +3.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → |
| Vikings +2.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → |
| Vikings +1.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → |
| Vikings −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Vikings −1.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| Vikings −2.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| Vikings −3.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| Vikings −4.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| Vikings −5.5 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → |
| Vikings −6.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| Vikings −7.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| Vikings −9.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| Vikings −10.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| Vikings −13.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| Vikings −14.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| Vikings −16.5 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
We think the median sits somewhere else than the market does.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers +10.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → |
| Chargers +9.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → |
| Chargers +7.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → |
| Chargers +6.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → |
| Chargers +5.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → |
| Chargers +4.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → |
| Chargers +3.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → |
| Chargers +2.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → |
| Chargers +1.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → |
| Chargers −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chargers −1.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| Chargers −2.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| Chargers −3.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| Chargers −4.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| Chargers −5.5 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → |
| Chargers −6.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| Chargers −7.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| Chargers −9.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| Chargers −10.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| Chargers −11.5 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → |
| Chargers −13.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| Chargers −14.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| Chargers −16.5 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → |
| Chargers −17.5 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → |
| Chargers −20.5 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → |
| Chargers −23.5 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → |
| Chargers −27.5 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → |
| Chargers −30.5 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
We think the median sits somewhere else than the market does.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts +20.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → |
| Colts +17.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → |
| Colts +16.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → |
| Colts +14.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → |
| Colts +13.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → |
| Colts +10.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → |
| Colts +9.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → |
| Colts +7.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → |
| Colts +6.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → |
| Colts +5.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → |
| Colts +4.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → |
| Colts +3.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → |
| Colts +2.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → |
| Colts +1.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → |
| Colts −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Colts −1.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| Colts −2.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| Colts −3.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| Colts −4.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| Colts −5.5 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → |
| Colts −6.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| Colts −7.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| Colts −9.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| Colts −10.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| Colts −13.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| Colts −14.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
- Browns at JaguarsSpread · Jaguars −2.5LOCATION🔒
- Dolphins at RaidersSpread · Raiders +7.5LOCATION🔒
- Saints at LionsSpread · Lions −2.5LOCATION🔒
- Jets at TitansSpread · Titans −3.5SHAPE🔒
- Cowboys at GiantsSpread · Giants +2.5SHAPE🔒
- Buccaneers at BengalsSpread · Bengals +4.5LOCATION🔒
- Broncos at ChiefsSpread · Chiefs +4.5SHAPE🔒
- Commanders at EaglesSpread · Eagles −7.5SHAPE🔒
- Bears at PanthersSpread · Panthers +2.5SHAPE🔒
- Patriots at SeahawksSpread · Seahawks +4.5SHAPE🔒
- Falcons at SteelersSpread · Steelers +4.5LOCATION🔒
- Bills at TexansSpread · Texans −3.5SHAPE🔒
- 49ers at RamsSpread · Rams −10.5PRICED🔒
Season win totals
A 10,000-season simulation on our own power ratings against each club's seventeen-rung Kalshi win-total ladder. The rungs the market has not listed two-sided yet are drawn from the sim alone.
We think the median sits somewhere else than the market does.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 2+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 3+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 4+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 5+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 6+ wins | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| 7+ wins | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| 8+ wins | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| 9+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 10+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 11+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 12+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 13+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | thin |
| 14+ wins | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| 15+ wins | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| 16+ wins | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| 17+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | thin |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
We think the median sits somewhere else than the market does.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 2+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 3+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 4+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 5+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 6+ wins | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| 7+ wins | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| 8+ wins | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| 9+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 10+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 11+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 12+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 13+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | thin |
| 14+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | thin |
| 15+ wins | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| 16+ wins | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| 17+ wins | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
We think the median sits somewhere else than the market does.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 2+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 3+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 4+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 5+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 6+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 7+ wins | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| 8+ wins | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| 9+ wins | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → |
| 10+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 11+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 12+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → |
| 13+ wins | 🔒 | outside range | — | thin |
| 14+ wins | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| 15+ wins | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| 16+ wins | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| 17+ wins | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
- BengalsSeason wins · 10+ winsLOCATION🔒
- VikingsSeason wins · 9+ winsLOCATION🔒
- ChargersSeason wins · 10+ winsLOCATION🔒
- FalconsSeason wins · 8+ winsLOCATION🔒
- ChiefsSeason wins · 9+ winsLOCATION🔒
- RavensSeason wins · 10+ winsLOCATION🔒
- RamsSeason wins · 12+ winsLOCATION🔒
- TexansSeason wins · 10+ winsLOCATION🔒
- JetsSeason wins · 7+ winsLOCATION🔒
- LionsSeason wins · 11+ winsLOCATION🔒
- BroncosSeason wins · 10+ winsLOCATION🔒
- PatriotsSeason wins · 11+ winsLOCATION🔒
- 49ersSeason wins · 10+ winsLOCATION🔒
- CowboysSeason wins · 10+ winsLOCATION🔒
- TitansSeason wins · 7+ winsLOCATION🔒
- BillsSeason wins · 11+ winsLOCATION🔒
- PanthersSeason wins · 8+ winsLOCATION🔒
- EaglesSeason wins · 9+ winsLOCATION🔒
- CommandersSeason wins · 9+ winsLOCATION🔒
- GiantsSeason wins · 9+ winsLOCATION🔒
- ColtsSeason wins · 9+ winsLOCATION🔒
- BearsSeason wins · 9+ winsLOCATION🔒
- SteelersSeason wins · 9+ winsSHAPE🔒
- SeahawksSeason wins · 11+ winsPRICED🔒
- BuccaneersSeason wins · 8+ winsPRICED🔒
- JaguarsSeason wins · 9+ winsPRICED🔒
- SaintsSeason wins · 9+ winsPRICED🔒
- PackersSeason wins · 10+ winsPRICED🔒
- RaidersSeason wins · 7+ winsPRICED🔒
Player props
The Kalshi prop market at every listed strike beside the the books’ consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called. Receiving yards are held while the passing and receiving sides of the projection are reconciled.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Books | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40+ rush yds | 🔒 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → |
| 50+ rush yds | 🔒 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → |
| 60+ rush yds | 🔒 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → |
| 70+ rush yds | 🔒 | — | — | — | YES → |
| 80+ rush yds | 🔒 | — | — | — | YES → |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
- Hunter HenryReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Cooper KuppReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- DeMario DouglasReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- A.J. BrownReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- AJ BarnerReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Drake MayePass TDsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Drake MayeRush YdsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- George HolaniRush YdsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Jadarian PriceRush YdsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Sam DarnoldPass TDsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Brock PurdyRush YdsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Davante AdamsReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Christian McCaffreyRush YdsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Deebo Samuel Sr.ReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Blake CorumRush YdsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Brock PurdyPass TDsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Christian McCaffreyReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Kyren WilliamsRush YdsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Matthew StaffordPass TDsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Mike EvansReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Puka NacuaReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Bryce YoungPass TDsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Caleb WilliamsPass TDsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Jalen CokerReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Chase BrownReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Samaje PerineRush YdsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Jahmyr GibbsReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Jameson WilliamsReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Chris OlaveReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Jahmyr GibbsRush YdsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Dalton KincaidReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- C.J. StroudPass TDsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Dalton SchultzReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Daniel JonesPass TDsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Daniel JonesRush YdsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Jonathan TaylorRush YdsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Justice HillRush YdsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Rashod BatemanReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Harold Fannin Jr.ReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Parker WashingtonReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Quinshon JudkinsRush YdsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Drake LondonReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Aaron RodgersPass TDsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Aaron RodgersRush YdsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Tua TagovailoaRush YdsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Cam WardPass TDsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Geno SmithPass TDsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Jacoby BrissettPass TDsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Justin HerbertPass TDsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Marvin Harrison Jr.ReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Omarion HamptonRush YdsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Brock BowersReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Christian WatsonReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Jordan LovePass TDsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Dallas GoedertReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Jalen HurtsPass TDsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- Saquon BarkleyRush YdsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- CeeDee LambReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED—
- RJ HarveyRush YdsONE STRIKE PRICED—
The Ladder FAQ
What is The Ladder?
Kalshi lists a ladder of strikes for a game spread, a season win total and a player prop — several contracts on one question at different thresholds. We hold a full probability distribution for each question, so The Ladder pairs our probability with the market price at every listed strike and draws both curves. A single-row board tells you that we disagree at one strike; the ladder shows whether we disagree about the middle of the distribution or only about its tail.
What do SHAPE, LOCATION and PRICED mean?
They are derived from the gaps across the ladder, not written by hand. SHAPE means the gap changes sign as the strike rises: we agree with the market about the middle and disagree about the tail. LOCATION means every rung leans the same way: we think the median sits somewhere else. PRICED means no rung differs by more than five points, so the market and the model tell the same story. We print PRICED on purpose; it is what makes the other two credible.
Why are some rungs greyed out with no model number?
We only publish our probability where we have measured it to be calibrated. On 7,569 graded prop samples the display probability lands within about two and a half points of reality between 30% and 70%; above 70% the sample is small and the misses are large. So a rung whose model probability falls outside that range still shows the market price, but never carries our number and never becomes the headline gap.
Where does the data come from?
The spread ladder is our stored margin model for each game against the live Kalshi spread series. The season-wins ladder is a 10,000-season simulation on our own power ratings against each team’s Kalshi win-total ladder. The prop ladder is the Kalshi prop market at every listed strike beside the the books’ consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called. Nothing is a live vendor quote; every price is a Kalshi contract you can open.
Which parts are free?
The picture and the verdict on every ladder are free for everyone. The rung-by-rung numbers follow the same free window as the prop board, and after it they are part of Pro.