Week 7 · The Ladder
Every Kalshi strike, against our whole distribution
A point estimate cannot tell a trader whether to take a position. The full distribution against the contract ladder can, and it says something no single-row board does: not just that we disagree, but whether we disagree about the middle or only about the tail.
This week on the boardNFL Week 7 predictions →NFL Week 8 predictions — early lines →Week 6 results →
Week 7 gamesPatriots at BearsSteelers at Saints49ers at FalconsBengals at RavensBuccaneers at PanthersGiants at TexansColts at VikingsDolphins at JetsBrowns at TitansBroncos at CardinalsPackers at LionsRams at RaidersChiefs at SeahawksCowboys at Eagles
Quick Answer
the widest published gap on this week's ladders is Eagles season wins at 7+ wins, a location disagreement; across 18 ladders with a verdict, 0 are shape, 4 are location and 14 are priced.
13 game spread ladders · 32 season-win ladders · 108 player-prop ladders.
Our number is published only between 30% and 70%, where it is measured to be calibrated; rungs outside show the market only.
SHAPE = the gap changes sign across the ladder. LOCATION = every rung leans one way. PRICED = under five points everywhere.
Game spreads
Our stored margin model for each game against every live Kalshi spread strike. Above zero is the home side laying points; below zero is the home side taking them.
Kalshi prices Lions −3.5 at 50¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- −20.5Lions——
- −17.5Lions——
- −16.5Lions——
- −14.5Lions—outside band
- −13.5Lions—outside band
- −10.5Lions—outside band
- −9.5Lions—outside band
- −7.5Lions——
- −6.5Lions——
- −5.5Lions——
- −4.5Lions——
- −3.5Lions——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects by 3.4
- −2.5Lions——
- −1.5Lions——
- +1.5Lions——
- +2.5Lions——
- +3.5Lions—outside band
- +4.5Lions—outside band
- +5.5Lions—outside band
- +6.5Lions—outside band
- +7.5Lions—outside band
- +9.5Lions—outside band
- +10.5Lions—outside band
- +13.5Lions—outside band
- +14.5Lions—outside band
Priced. The market and the model tell the same story at every rung.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices Titans +1.5 at 49¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- −16.5Titans——
- −14.5Titans—outside band
- −13.5Titans—outside band
- −10.5Titans—outside band
- −9.5Titans—outside band
- −7.5Titans—outside band
- −6.5Titans—outside band
- −5.5Titans——
- −4.5Titans—outside band
- −3.5Titans——
- −2.5Titans——
- −1.5Titans——
- +1.5Titans——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects +1.9
- +2.5Titans——
- +3.5Titans——
- +4.5Titans——
- +5.5Titans——
- +6.5Titans——
- +7.5Titans—outside band
- +9.5Titans—outside band
- +10.5Titans—outside band
- +13.5Titans—outside band
- +14.5Titans—outside band
- +16.5Titans—outside band
Priced. The market and the model tell the same story at every rung.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices Jets −4.5 at 49¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- −20.5Jets——
- −17.5Jets——
- −16.5Jets——
- −14.5Jets—outside band
- −13.5Jets—outside band
- −10.5Jets—outside band
- −9.5Jets——
- −7.5Jets——
- −6.5Jets——
- −5.5Jets——
- −4.5Jets——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects by 4.1
- −3.5Jets——
- −2.5Jets——
- −1.5Jets——
- +1.5Jets——
- +2.5Jets——
- +3.5Jets—outside band
- +4.5Jets—outside band
- +5.5Jets—outside band
- +6.5Jets—outside band
- +7.5Jets—outside band
- +9.5Jets—outside band
- +10.5Jets—outside band
- +13.5Jets—outside band
- +14.5Jets—outside band
Priced. The market and the model tell the same story at every rung.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
- 49ers at FalconsSpread · Falcons +3.5PRICED🔒
- Bengals at RavensSpread · Ravens +2.5PRICED🔒
- Broncos at CardinalsSpread · Cardinals −2.5PRICED🔒
- Colts at VikingsSpread · Vikings −13.5PRICED🔒
- Cowboys at EaglesSpread · Eagles +6.5PRICED🔒
- Buccaneers at PanthersSpread · Panthers −6.5PRICED🔒
- Chiefs at SeahawksSpread · Seahawks −2.5PRICED🔒
- Steelers at SaintsSpread · Saints +2.5PRICED🔒
- Rams at RaidersSpread · Raiders +3.5PRICED🔒
- Giants at TexansSpread · Texans −14.5PRICED🔒
Season win totals
A 10,000-season simulation on our own power ratings against each club's seventeen-rung Kalshi win-total ladder. The rungs the market has not listed two-sided yet are drawn from the sim alone.
Kalshi prices 7+ wins at 41¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 17+winsthin—outside band
- 16+winsthin—outside band
- 15+winsthin—outside band
- 14+winsthin—outside band
- 13+winsthin—outside band
- 12+winsthin—outside band
- 11+winsthin—outside band
- 10+wins—outside band
- 9+wins——
- 8+wins——
- 7+wins——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 6–7
- 6+wins—outside band
- 5+wins—outside band
- 4+wins—outside band
- 3+wins—outside band
- 2+winsthin—outside band
- 1+winsthin—outside band
We think the median sits somewhere else than the market does.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 7+ wins at 57¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 17+winsthin—outside band
- 16+winsthin—outside band
- 15+winsthin—outside band
- 14+winsthin—outside band
- 13+winsthin—outside band
- 12+wins—outside band
- 11+wins—outside band
- 10+wins——
- 9+wins—refused
- 8+wins—refused
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 7–8
- 7+wins—outside band
- 6+wins—outside band
- 5+wins—outside band
- 4+wins—outside band
- 3+winsthin—outside band
- 2+winsthin—outside band
- 1+winsthin—outside band
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 13+ wins at 47¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 17+winsthin—outside band
- 16+wins—outside band
- 15+wins—outside band
- 14+wins—outside band
- 13+wins—outside band
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 12–13
- 12+wins——
- 11+wins——
- 10+wins—outside band
- 9+wins—outside band
- 8+wins—outside band
- 7+winsthin—outside band
- 6+winsthin—outside band
- 5+winsthin—outside band
- 3+winsthin—outside band
- 2+winsthin—outside band
- 1+winsthin—outside band
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
- CowboysSeason wins · 8+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- JetsSeason wins · 7+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- BillsSeason wins · 11+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- TexansSeason wins · 9+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- BrownsSeason wins · 9+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- TitansSeason wins · 6+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- RavensSeason wins · 10+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- LionsSeason wins · 10+ winsLOCATION🔒
- RamsSeason wins · 8+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- CardinalsSeason wins · 7+ winsLOCATION🔒
- BuccaneersSeason wins · 7+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- PackersSeason wins · 11+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- BroncosSeason wins · 11+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- 49ersSeason wins · 14+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- PatriotsSeason wins · 11+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- JaguarsSeason wins · 11+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- BengalsSeason wins · 10+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- VikingsSeason wins · 12+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- FalconsSeason wins · 7+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- SteelersSeason wins · 10+ winsLOCATION🔒
- SaintsSeason wins · 8+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- SeahawksSeason wins · 10+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- BearsSeason wins · 12+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- PanthersSeason wins · 9+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- ColtsSeason wins · 7+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- CommandersSeason wins · 7+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- RaidersSeason wins · 9+ winsPRICED🔒
- ChargersSeason wins · 4+ winsMARKET READ🔒
- DolphinsSeason winsMARKET READ—
Player props
The Kalshi prop market at every listed strike beside the the books’ consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called. Receiving yards are held while the passing and receiving sides of the projection are reconciled.
Kalshi prices 2+ rec at 60¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 3+rec36¢—
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 1–2
- 2+rec59¢—
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 3+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 70¢, the books imply 64¢ — 3.4 points below the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 4+ rec at 49¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 4+rec52¢—
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 3–4
- 3+rec——
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 4+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 52¢, the books imply 48¢ — 3.2 points below the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 2+ rec at 60¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 3+rec39¢—
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 1–2
- 2+rec58¢—
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 3+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 65¢, the books imply 61¢ — 3.1 points below the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
- AJ BarnerReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Quinshon JudkinsReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Nico CollinsReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Chris OlaveReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Keenan AllenReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Tee HigginsReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Jaylin NoelReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Kenneth WalkerReceptions · 3+ recMARKET READ—
- Tez JohnsonReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Jaylen WarrenReceptions · 2+ recMARKET READ—
- Malik NabersReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Will MalloryReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Kyle PittsReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Chris GodwinReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Xavier HutchinsonReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Laquon TreadwellReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Jalen RoyalsReceptionsMARKET READ—
- CeeDee LambReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Pat FreiermuthReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Bijan RobinsonReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Justin JeffersonReceptions · 8+ recSHAPE—
- Alvin KamaraReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Christian McCaffreyReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Jordan WatkinsReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Marvin HarrisonReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Kyren WilliamsReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Kenny GainwellReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Ted HurstReceptionsMARKET READ—
- George KittleReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Isaiah LikelyReceptions · 5+ recLOCATION—
- Kenyon SadiqReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Trey McBrideReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Devaughn VeleReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Kendre MillerReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Drake LondonReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Samaje PerineReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Tyrone TracyReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Tre TuckerReceptions · 4+ recMARKET READ—
- Dohnte MeyersReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Tommy TrembleReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Josh DownsReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Jahmyr GibbsReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Tucker KraftReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Germie BernardReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Ashton JeantyReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Noah GrayReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Darnell WashingtonReceptions · 2+ recMARKET READ—
- DK MetcalfReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Jalen CokerReceptionsMARKET READ—
- John MetchieReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Malachi FieldsReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Brandin CooksReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Cade OttonReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Aaron RodgersPass AttMARKET READ—
- Jaylen WarrenRush AttMARKET READ—
- Jaylen WarrenRush+Rec YdsMARKET READ—
- Kendre MillerRush AttMARKET READ—
- Tyler ShoughCompletionsMARKET READ—
- Bijan RobinsonRush AttMARKET READ—
- Bijan RobinsonRush+Rec YdsMARKET READ—
- Brock PurdyPass AttMARKET READ—
- Christian McCaffreyRush AttMARKET READ—
- Christian McCaffreyRush+Rec YdsMARKET READ—
- Michael PenixCompletionsMARKET READ—
- Chase BrownRush AttMARKET READ—
- Joe BurrowPass AttMARKET READ—
- Joe BurrowInterceptionsMARKET READ—
- Samaje PerineRush AttMARKET READ—
- Bryce YoungPass AttMARKET READ—
- Bryce YoungCompletionsMARKET READ—
- Tetairoa McMillanReceptionsMARKET READ—
- C.J. StroudPass AttMARKET READ—
- J.J. McCarthyPass AttMARKET READ—
- J.J. McCarthyInterceptionsMARKET READ—
- Woody MarksRush AttMARKET READ—
- Daniel JonesPass AttMARKET READ—
- Daniel JonesCompletionsMARKET READ—
- Daniel JonesInterceptionsMARKET READ—
- Jonathan TaylorRush AttMARKET READ—
- Kyler MurrayPass AttMARKET READ—
- Greg DulcichReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Malik WillisCompletionsMARKET READ—
- Deshaun WatsonPass AttMARKET READ—
- Bam KnightRush AttMARKET READ—
- Evan EngramReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Jacoby BrissettInterceptionsMARKET READ—
- Tyler AllgeierRush AttMARKET READ—
- Jahmyr GibbsRush+Rec YdsMARKET READ—
- Jared GoffCompletionsMARKET READ—
- Jared GoffInterceptionsMARKET READ—
- Jordan LovePass AttMARKET READ—
- Ashton JeantyRush AttMARKET READ—
- Ashton JeantyRush+Rec YdsMARKET READ—
- Kirk CousinsCompletionsMARKET READ—
- Konata MumpfieldReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Matthew StaffordCompletionsMARKET READ—
- Matthew StaffordInterceptionsMARKET READ—
- Puka NacuaReceptionsMARKET READ—
- Kenneth WalkerRush AttMARKET READ—
- Kenneth WalkerRush+Rec YdsMARKET READ—
- Patrick MahomesPass AttMARKET READ—
- Patrick MahomesCompletionsMARKET READ—
- Sam DarnoldInterceptionsMARKET READ—
MCP · nfl_ladder
The Ladder FAQ
What is The Ladder?
Kalshi lists a ladder of strikes for a game spread, a season win total and a player prop — several contracts on one question at different thresholds. We hold a full probability distribution for each question, so The Ladder pairs our probability with the market price at every listed strike and draws both curves. A single-row board tells you that we disagree at one strike; the ladder shows whether we disagree about the middle of the distribution or only about its tail.
What do SHAPE, LOCATION and PRICED mean?
They are derived from the gaps across the ladder, not written by hand. SHAPE means the gap changes sign as the strike rises: we agree with the market about the middle and disagree about the tail. LOCATION means every rung leans the same way: we think the median sits somewhere else. PRICED means no rung differs by more than five points, so the market and the model tell the same story. We print PRICED on purpose; it is what makes the other two credible.
Why are some rungs greyed out with no model number?
We only publish our probability where we have measured it to be calibrated. On 7,569 graded prop samples the display probability lands within about two and a half points of reality between 30% and 70%; above 70% the sample is small and the misses are large. So a rung whose model probability falls outside that range still shows the market price, but never carries our number and never becomes the headline gap.
Where does the data come from?
The spread ladder is our stored margin model for each game against the live Kalshi spread series. The season-wins ladder is a 10,000-season simulation on our own power ratings against each team’s Kalshi win-total ladder. The prop ladder is the Kalshi prop market at every listed strike beside the the books’ consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called. Nothing is a live vendor quote; every price is a Kalshi contract you can open.
Which parts are free?
The picture and the verdict on every ladder are free for everyone. The rung-by-rung numbers follow the same free window as the prop board, and after it they are part of Pro.