Updated · model ratings
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, September 20, 2026): Washington Commanders 20, Dallas Cowboys 37 — NFL Week 2, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Cowboys by 4 (64% to win); the Cowboys won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Cowboys at 66c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Washington Commanders 20, Dallas Cowboys 37Final
Model call: HITOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Cowboys by 4 (64% to win). The Cowboys won — that call landed.
Closing-line value on the Cowboys: +2c — we archived the Cowboys at 64c on Sep 14; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 66c on Sep 20. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 3 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
Dak Prescott went 26 of 31 for 279 and four touchdowns — two to CeeDee Lamb, two to Jake Ferguson — and Brandon Aubrey kicked a 60-yarder in the fourth quarter. Washington ran for 182 yards at 5.7 a carry and outgained Dallas by 57, and it did not matter: Daniels, who ran seven times for 69, left the game and is listed out, and Marcus Mariota threw the last Washington touchdown. Fifty-seven combined points cleared a 51.5 total that never moved. The one ledger position on this game was Washington.
Commanders 20—Cowboys 37
Final✓ Call hitThe chip grades the stored probability, which had Dallas at 63.8% — the market’s number, anchored at weight zero from a four-point margin — and Dallas won, so it reads a hit. The model’s own read was Dallas by 4.6, the right team and half a point past the anchor; the game finished seventeen apart. The published position was the other team, and this one needs the same care as the Denver page because it was the same kind of position. 2026_02_WAS_DAL_moneyline is a MODERATE position on Washington at ticker KXNFLGAME-26SEP20WASDAL-WAS, entered at 35.5c on Monday 2026-09-14 and closed at 34.5c, a cent of CLV against us. Its 3.3-point edge was the anchored fair probability (62.2% for Dallas, from the 3.5-point line the books held on Monday) against a Kalshi price of 65.5c on Dallas — a gap between the posted line and the exchange, not a model view, because the model’s own lean on the row was toward Dallas by about a point. So the ledger carried a Washington position that the model did not like, on the argument that Kalshi had Dallas three cents too dear, and Washington lost by seventeen. Own it as what it was: a venue-gap position that resolved against us, with the model on the winning side and no position on it. The Wednesday props article had one card here and it lost: CeeDee Lamb six-plus receptions, NO at 46c, the article’s only fade and the one it called a fair-price position on the event; Lamb caught eight for 153 and two scores. The board carried the same view at two strikes — Lamb under 5.5 receptions at 54.5c, STRONG, and under 6.5 at 37.5c, HIGH, on a 5.05 projection — and both lost. Prescott under 2.5 passing touchdowns at 27.5c lost on four. Daniels under 29.5 and under 39.5 rushing yards, at 60c and 40.5c on a 29.3 projection, lost on his 69 — in a game he did not finish. Visible calls none for five. Four Daniels passing-yards unders also sit in the ledger and all four would have resolved on his 96, and they do not count twice over: pass_yds is suppressed, and a passing line ended by an injury is not a projection that was right. Eight WATCH rows went five and three and are graded apart.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread did not move.
Q1
Prescott found Lamb from three yards with 10:01 left in the first and Aubrey added a 25-yarder for 10-0. Dallas would convert seven of eleven third downs and three of four red-zone trips on the day; Prescott was sacked twice and did not turn the ball over.
Q2
Drew Stevens got Washington on the board from 27, Prescott hit Ferguson from ten with 9:55 left in the half for 17-3, and Daniels found Stefon Diggs from four with 6:37 to go. Washington held the ball for 31:29 on the day and converted eight of fourteen third downs; it reached the red zone three times and scored one touchdown.
Q3
Stevens hit from 47 with 12:50 left in the third for 13-17. Aubrey answered from 44 with 7:20 to go, and 48 seconds later Prescott hit Ferguson from twelve for 27-13. Ferguson finished with four catches for 43 and two scores on four targets.
Q4
Aubrey’s 60-yarder with 13:22 left made it 30-13. Mariota, in for Daniels, hit Diggs from 20 with 9:03 to play — Mariota finished 11 of 16 for 111 and the touchdown — and Prescott found Lamb from 24 with 3:07 left for 37-20. Lamb finished with eight catches for 153 on nine targets. Washington ran for 182 yards on 32 carries; Daniels had 69 of them on seven before he left.
Reporting verified 2026-09-20. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line · NFL Week 2 props: best price, Kalshi vs. the books
Washington and Dallas both opened 2026 with one-score divisional losses — the Commanders 22-24 at Philadelphia, the Cowboys 20-28 at the Giants — and the loser here starts 0-2 in the division ([Commanders preview](https://www.commanders.com/news/commanders-vs-cowboys-preview-week-2-2026); [Blogging The Boys](https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/dallas-cowboys-roster/218272/2026-nfl-week-2-dallas-cowboys-washington-commanders)). Both offensive lines are playing without their best blocker: Washington lost LT Laremy Tunsil to a torn triceps in August, and Dallas put All-Pro LG Tyler Smith on IR after thumb surgery ([Commanders Wire](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/commanders-face-more-questions-offensive-104530899.html); [Yardbarker](https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/brian_schottenheimer_says_tyler_guyton_has_played_well_since_training_camp/s1_17810_44313208)). Four of the game's six coordinator/head-coach chairs changed hands since last season, and three of the four coordinators are in their first year in the job.
Commanders pass protection · Cowboys pass rush
Washington is starting Brandon Coleman at left tackle because Laremy Tunsil tore his triceps in August, and PFF ranked the resulting five-man group last in the NFL entering the season. Philadelphia pressured Jayden Daniels on 19 of 38 dropbacks in Week 1 — a 50% rate — and Coleman himself surrendered a 23% pressure rate plus Washington's only sack allowed. Dallas answers with a front rebuilt almost entirely through trade and free agency: Rashan Gary and Donovan Ezeiruaku on the edges, Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark inside, Von Miller in rotation. The caveat is that this group generated only two sacks and a below-average 30% pressure rate against the Giants, so the paper mismatch has not yet shown up on the field.
Source: Sam Cosmi / Daily Slop (PFF OL rankings, Conerly 78.4 pass-block grade, Cosmi 2.4% pressure rate)
Cowboys pass protection · Commanders pass rush
Dallas did not allow a sack against the Giants even with All-Pro left guard Tyler Smith on IR after thumb surgery; T.J. Bass played all 58 snaps in his place and Schottenheimer praised the performance. Smith is expected to miss four to six weeks, so Bass starts again. Washington's first-year coordinator Daronte Jones runs a Brian Flores-derived scheme — 39.4% blitz rate and a 48.5% pressure rate in Week 1, both well above league average — and produced three sacks from Odafe Oweh, rookie Sonny Styles and Frankie Luvu. Whether that pressure package is intact is the open question: Luvu (groin) missed Wednesday and Thursday practice, Javon Kinlaw was newly added Thursday with a back issue, and Oweh, Chaisson, Omenihu and Armstrong were all limited.
Source: Yardbarker / Dallas Sports Journal (Guyton snaps, no sacks allowed, Bass at LG, Smith 4-6 weeks)
Commanders run offense · Cowboys run defense
Washington's run game was the one part of the opener that clearly worked: 132 rushing yards (9th in the NFL after Week 1) on a 47.8% rush rate. Jacory "Bill" Croskey-Merritt is the lead back on the ground with 16 carries for 63 yards and a touchdown, though he also lost a fumble. **Rachaad White is confirmed on Washington** — he signed cheaply in the 2026 offseason and is the clear 1B, not a spare part: he played 29 of 70 offensive snaps to Croskey-Merritt's 34, with rookie Kaytron Allen at just seven. Dallas allowed 165 rushing yards to the Giants (T-27th) and ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks in 2025, which matters against a quarterback who scrambles as readily as Daniels.
Source: SI — Commanders Snap Judgement (backfield snap split, Croskey-Merritt 16-63-1 TD)
Cowboys run offense · Commanders run defense
Dallas ran 18 times for 69 yards against the Giants — 28th in the league after Week 1 — with Javonte Williams held to 41 yards on 12 carries. Part of that was game script: Dallas held the ball for only 23:20 and ran just 52 offensive plays, 24th in the NFL, while carrying a 34.6% rush rate. Williams is nonetheless the clear feature back on a three-year, $24 million extension, and backup Malik Davis is on season-ending IR after hip surgery. Washington's run defense allowed 136 yards (25th) to Philadelphia, but the same front produced 13 "havoc" plays and held the Eagles to 10 first downs — the lowest total in the league through 15 Week 1 games.
Source: Yardbarker / Dallas Sports Journal (Cowboys 18 carries for 69 yards)
Cowboys pass offense · Commanders pass defense
Washington's projected starting corner Trey Amos is on injured reserve (designated to return) after breaking his fibula last October and then injuring the ankle on the same leg in camp; Dan Quinn said this week that even the four-game minimum does not guarantee a Week 5 return. That leaves Mike Sainristil and Rasul Douglas outside with Amik Robertson in the nickel — the alignment Washington used in Philadelphia. Quinn publicly called Sainristil's Week 1 play "unacceptable" after multiple mental errors led to Eagles scores, which is unusual for him, and Sainristil now draws CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Working the other way: Washington held Philadelphia to 182 passing yards, 12th in the league after Week 1.
Commanders pass offense · Cowboys pass defense
Dallas's Week 1 depth chart listed DaRon Bland at one boundary spot and "Cobie Durant OR Shavon Revel" at the other, with first-round rookie Caleb Downs as the starting nickel — Dallas has not committed publicly to which of Durant or Revel starts. Downs was the Cowboys' Week 1 bright spot: 61 defensive snaps, eight tackles, a sack (the fastest in the league in Week 1 at 2.49 seconds), a forced fumble, and two receptions allowed for seven yards. The unit behind them gave up a 79.3% completion rate, 31st in the NFL. Washington counters with Terry McLaurin (87% of snaps) and Stefon Diggs (63%), who scored on Cooper DeJean in the slot in Week 1 — but Washington's passing game ranked 26th at 163 yards.
Source: Hogs Haven — Inside the Matchup (Caleb Downs Week 1 line and fastest sack)
Both quarterbacks · both new schemes
Both starters are confirmed and both had rough openers by their own standards. Jayden Daniels went 18-of-34 for 164 yards with two passing touchdowns (4.8 yards per attempt) in David Blough's first game as play-caller, a scheme that moves him under center more than Kliff Kingsbury's did — he went just 2-of-4 from under center. Dak Prescott went 22-of-34 for 175 yards with two touchdowns and an interception (5.1 YPA) that he called "the game," and reported four dropped passes limited the offense's rhythm. Three of the four coordinators here are first-year play-callers: Blough and Daronte Jones for Washington, Christian Parker for Dallas. Klayton Adams is in his second year as Cowboys OC.
Reporting verified 2026-09-18. Further sources: Sam Cosmi / Daily Slop (PFF OL rankings, Conerly 78.4 pass-block grade, Cosmi 2.4% pressure rate) · NFL.com Week 2 preview video (Coleman 23% pressure rate; Cowboys blitz/pressure rates) · SI — Commanders Second Read (Daniels clean vs. pressured splits, Next Gen Stats) · Yardbarker / Dallas Sports Journal (Guyton snaps, no sacks allowed, Bass at LG, Smith 4-6 weeks) · SI — Commanders Week 1 report card (SumerSports blitz/pressure/TFL rates) · Hogs Haven Thursday injury report (Kinlaw back, Luvu groin, Oweh/Chaisson/Omenihu/Armstrong limited) · SI — Commanders Snap Judgement (backfield snap split, Croskey-Merritt 16-63-1 TD) · Commanders.com Week 2 preview (team stat rankings, both clubs) · Sharp Football Analysis Week 2 worksheet (rush/pass rates, QB rushing yards allowed) · The Athletic — Commanders' new-look defense (13 havoc plays, 10 first downs allowed) · Eagles.com Week 1 injury report (Douglas starts opposite Sainristil, Robertson at nickel; Amos on IR) · Hogs Haven — Quinn presser Sept. 16 (Sainristil "unacceptable," Amos timeline)
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
WAS
-1.8
DAL
-0.6
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Commanders
36%
fair value (books)
Cowboys
64%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
29%
Madden 27
71%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
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Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Washington Commanders 20, Dallas Cowboys 37 — the graded call is above.
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys is a NFC East game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 18. The model has the Cowboys by 4.5 (63%) off a -0.6 to -1.8 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC East, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Cowboys offense grades +3.5 (3rd of 32) against a Commanders defense at -2.4 (27th) — 6.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Commanders offense (+0.3, 18th) meets the Cowboys defense (-4.6, 32nd), a 4.9-point gap.
On the standings side, NFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC East race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Cowboys at 8.0 wins (favored in 6 of 17) and the Commanders at 6.1 (favored in 7) — 2.0 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Cowboys' schedule and the 4th-hardest on the Commanders'.
One team has owned this series: the Cowboys are 32-16 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 2 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Cowboys won 30-23 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Cowboys are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favorites went 59%. The 63% on the Cowboys here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20WASDAL, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Full division picture on the NFC East hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 64% for the Cowboys. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
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|---|---|---|
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Washington Commanders 20, Dallas Cowboys 37 — final, played Sunday, September 20, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Cowboys by 4 (64% to win), and the Cowboys won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Cowboys by 4 points, a 64% win probability over the Commanders. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20WASDAL market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC East teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 18. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Cowboys by 4.5 on ratings and home field alone.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP20WASDAL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Cowboys at 62c or below, or the Commanders at 34c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Washington Commanders visit the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Cowboys at 8.0 wins (favored in 6) and the Commanders at 6.1 (favored in 7). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Cowboys' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Commanders', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20WASDAL, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 2 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP20WASDAL has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Cowboys at 63% over the Commanders sit in that band, off a 4.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Commanders–Cowboys, Week 18 →
Lions at BillsModel: Bills −4
Panthers at FalconsModel: Falcons −4
Saints at RavensModel: Ravens −5.5
Vikings at BearsModel: Bears −6
Bengals at TexansModel: Texans −4
Steelers at PatriotsModel: Patriots −7
Packers at JetsModel: Packers −2.5
Browns at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −4.5
Eagles at TitansModel: Eagles −3
Jaguars at BroncosModel: Broncos −0.5
Raiders at ChargersModel: Chargers −6.5
Seahawks at CardinalsModel: Seahawks −6
Dolphins at 49ersModel: 49ers −6.5
Colts at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −2.5
Giants at RamsModel: Rams −7.5The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
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