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Home/NFL/Week 9/Cowboys vs Colts
Gridiron EdgeWeek 9 · 2026

Cowboys vs Colts Prediction — Week 9, Sun Nov 8

Updated · market price

Sunday, November 8, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

Quick Answer

As of October 28, 2026, Kalshi implies 35% for the Colts in Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts, NFL Week 9 2026, while the market line has the Cowboys by 3.5 (62% to win) — a 3.3pp gap. Value side: the Colts. The PredictionMarketsPicks model's own line is Colts by 1.5 against a market line of Cowboys by 3.5 — a 4.9-point lean toward the Colts, graded separately from any position.

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Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 9 · 2026-10-28

1 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 3.3pp on Colts moneyline.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Colts moneylineModel 38% vs market 35% on IND.34.5c38%Position1.3%

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

PMP · WK 9 POSITION
Sun, Nov 8
AWAY DAL -0.6
vs DAL -3.5
HOME IND -1.6
Fair (books) · IND 38% home win prob
Kalshi · IND 35¢ yes mid
Edge +3.3pp fair − Kalshi
📍 Indianapolis, IN BUY IND
Fair value (books) says Colts at 35c or better — 3.3pp above the market.Take the position on Kalshi →

Cowboys

62%

fair value (books)

Colts

38%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

49%

Madden 27

51%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

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Price GapsPROWhere the best price is right now — Kalshi vs Polymarket US vs the books.→Combo Edge BuilderFREEPrice a same-game combo for this slate — true joint probability, free, no leg cap.→NFL Win ProbabilityFREETurn any spread and total into a win probability and projected score.→Prop BoardLIVEEvery listed player prop, model number against the Kalshi price.→

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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →

The Ladder — Cowboys at Colts How to read the Ladder →

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Cowboys at ColtsSpreadMARKET READ

Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Cowboys at Colts Kalshi spread ladder for Week 9: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Cowboys–Colts spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Cowboys vs Colts power ratings (Week 9) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Dallas Cowboys-0.619thAverage
    Indianapolis Colts-1.624thAverage

    Cowboys and Colts season outlook

    DALIND
    Average wins8.06.7
    Make playoffs32%14%
    Win division24%10%
    Win Super Bowl2.0%0.7%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Cowboys vs Colts — player pages

    All players →

    Jonathan Taylor

    RB

    CeeDee Lamb

    WR

    George Pickens

    WR

    Javonte Williams

    RB

    Dak Prescott

    QB

    Tyler Warren

    TE

    Josh Downs

    WR

    Keenan Allen

    WR

    Jake Ferguson

    TE

    Ryan Flournoy

    WR

    Daniel Jones

    QB

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    What the model sees in Cowboys at Colts

    How this read is built →

    The Cowboys travel to face the Colts in Week 9. Our power ratings put the Colts 24th of 32 at -1.6 (Average tier) and the Cowboys 19th at -0.6 (Average tier) — a 1.0-point gap that home field widens to a 1.5-point line on the Colts, 54% to win. It rates as the 10th-widest of the 15 games in Week 9.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Cowboys offense grades +3.5 (3rd of 32) against a Colts defense at -1.8 (22nd) — 5.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Colts offense (-0.6, 21st) meets the Cowboys defense (-4.6, 32nd), a 4.0-point gap.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Colts at 6.7 wins (favored in 7 of 17) and the Cowboys at 8.0 (favored in 6) — 1.3 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 14th-hardest game on the Colts' schedule and the 8th-hardest on the Cowboys'.

    One team has owned this series: the Cowboys are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2022: Cowboys won 54-19 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Colts are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Colts at 54% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV08DALIND contract implies 35% for the Colts against a fair value (books) of 38% — a 3.3-point gap. That clears our floor for a position (2 points net of the book's spread), which flags the Colts as the value side at 35c.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Cowboys vs Colts on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26NOV08DALIND
    Market-implied (Colts)
    35c · 35%
    Fair value — books (Colts)
    38%
    Fair value vs market
    +3.3pp

    Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26NOV08DALIND. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 35c on the Colts is an implied 35% — no odds conversion needed. Our books-anchored fair value has 38%, a 3.3pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Cowboys vs Colts line history

    The earliest line we archived, on Sep 13, had the Cowboys −1.5 (DraftKings). The median across 5 books now is the Cowboys −3.5. On Kalshi the Cowboys trade at 66¢ to win, a 66% implied chance.

    BookEarliest line we archivedNowSpread trend
    DraftKingsCowboys −1.5 · O/U 52.5Sep 13Cowboys −3.5 · O/U 51.5
    FanDuelCowboys −3 · O/U 50.5Oct 27Cowboys −3.5 · O/U 50.5
    CaesarsColts −1 · O/U 51.5Sep 13Cowboys −3.5 · O/U 51
    BetRiversCowboys −3 · O/U 50.5Oct 27Cowboys −3 · O/U 50.5
    NovigCowboys −3.5 · —Oct 27Cowboys −3.5 · —
    Kalshia contract, not a spreadCowboys 66¢ to win

    Posted spreads and totals as our odds feed recorded them; a row is added only when a book moves its line. “Earliest line we archived” is our first capture, which is not necessarily the market’s open. Spreads are stated for the favorite. The Kalshi price is that exchange’s own moneyline contract.

    Where Cowboys vs Colts trades Why the venues differ →

    3 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.

    VenueColtsTrade
    Kalshi35% 35cTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig36% 36cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket.com (international)no captured price for this game — international bookInformational
    Polymarket USPolymarketPartnerUS exchange — separate book32% 32cOpen Polymarket US →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract35% 35cOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contract35% 35cOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

    Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Cowboys at Colts

    Same contracts on both venues · cost to buy after fees · as of 2:06 PM ET

    Game linesKalshi2:18 PM ETPolymarket USPolymarketPartner2:06 PM ETBest price
    Cowboys to win68¢69.5¢ after fees69¢70.5¢ after feesEven
    Colts to win34¢35.6¢ after fees33¢34.5¢ after feesPolymarket US1¢ less
    This game on Kalshi →This game on Polymarket US →

    Sponsored by Polymarket US

    18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/Polymarket%20US%20Rulebook%20(2026.09.30).pdf for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

    Polymarket US lists 400 other markets for this game that we haven’t matched to a Kalshi contract (first score, first touchdown, double result, exact margin, race to points).

    Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same question: the same team, the same line, the same player, stat and threshold. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 6.95% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max $1.74 per 100. The best-price column compares those costs; it needs a two-sided book on both venues, and a price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.

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    Watch the breakdown: Cowboys vs Colts

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    Cowboys vs Colts — frequently asked

    Who will win Colts vs Cowboys?

    The market line has the Cowboys at 62% to beat the Colts in Week 9.

    Who is favored in Cowboys vs Colts in Week 9?

    The market line has the Cowboys by 3.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Colts (our model's own line: Colts by 1.5). Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV08DALIND market implies 35% for the Colts — a 3.3pp gap versus the market line.

    What is the biggest mismatch in Cowboys vs Colts?

    Cowboys offense (+3.5, 3rd of 32) against Colts defense (-1.8, 22nd) — 5.3 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.

    How do you take a position on Cowboys vs Colts?

    The contract is KXNFLGAME-26NOV08DALIND on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. Colts YES is quoted around 35c against a fair value (books) of 38%. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Colts host the Cowboys?

    Dallas Cowboys visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, November 8, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 9, at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN.

    What does the model project for the Colts and Cowboys this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Colts at 6.7 wins (favored in 7) and the Cowboys at 8.0 (favored in 6). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Colts' schedule and 8th-hardest on the Cowboys', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Cowboys vs Colts?

    Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26NOV08DALIND. The Colts YES contract sits around 35c, which is an implied 35% — against our books-anchored fair value of 38%. That is a 3.3pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.

    Can you trade Cowboys vs Colts on Kalshi?

    Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, and the Week 9 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV08DALIND. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.

    How often does the model win when it is 54% on a team like the Colts?

    52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Colts at 54% over the Cowboys sit in that band, off a 1.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?

    Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

    What happens on Kalshi if Cowboys vs Colts ends in a tie?

    Your position is not voided. On a team contract with no Tie strike listed, Yes and No holders are each paid 50c a contract, and overtime counts toward the result. A player prop on someone who never plays settles at the last fair price rather than refunding, and a game postponed more than 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Every rule is at predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi/settlement-rules.

    Is Colts moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 38% against a market price implying 35%, an edge of +3.3 points. Model 38% vs market 35% on IND. We rate it a position, sized at 1.3% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.

    Trade this game on Kalshi →Colts hub →Cowboys hub →Kalshi NFL hub →Week 9 edge board →NFL predictions hub →

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    After this one

    Cowboys: Week 10 vs 49ersModel line →Colts: Week 10 vs DolphinsModel line →

    More Week 9 matchups

    Jaguars at RavensModel: Ravens −1Bengals at FalconsModel: Bengals −2.5Broncos at PanthersModel: evenJets at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −5.5Lions at DolphinsModel: Lions −2.5Browns at SaintsModel: Saints −0.5Giants at EaglesModel: Giants −2.5Rams at CommandersModel: Rams −2.5Texans at ChargersModel: Texans −1Raiders at 49ersModel: 49ers −9.5Packers at PatriotsModel: Patriots −4Cardinals at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −11Buccaneers at BearsModel: Bears −5Bills at VikingsModel: Vikings −1

    Full Week 9 board →Next: NFL Week 10 predictions →

    Same model, inside your AI agent

    The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.

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