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Home/NFL/Week 5/Eagles vs Jaguars
Gridiron EdgeWeek 5 · 2026

Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19

Final. Jaguars' next game: Jaguars vs Colts, Week 8 →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, United Kingdom (neutral site)

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 11, 2026): Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19 — NFL Week 5, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Jaguars by 8 (76% to win); the Jaguars won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Jaguars at 77c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

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Settled

Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Jaguars by 8 (76% to win). The Jaguars won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Jaguars: +17c — we archived the Jaguars at 60c on Oct 4; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 77c on Oct 11. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 6 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 5 · 2026-10-12

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Eagles moneylineModel 24% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 23% on PHI — kept as the pre-game record.23c24%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Jaguars 19, Eagles 17 in London: Ameer Abdullah’s 53-yard kickoff return set up Cam Little’s 57-yard field goal as time expired

Jake Elliott’s 48-yard field goal put Philadelphia ahead 17-16 with eight seconds left at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Abdullah returned the kickoff to the Eagles’ 39 with one second on the clock, and Little made the 57-yarder. Jacksonville outgained the Eagles 408 to 232 and held them to 22 rushing yards, but reached first-and-goal at the 1 twice without scoring, and Little’s missed extra point after Parker Washington’s second touchdown had left the Jaguars only two points up. Nick Sirianni said afterwards that not kicking the ball out of bounds cost his team the game. DraftKings opened Jacksonville, the designated home team, as a 2.5-point underdog and closed it a 7.5-point favorite; the Jaguars won by two, and 36 points finished under both the opening 44.5 and the closing 41.5.

Eagles 17—Jaguars 19

Final✓ Call hit

The chip reads a hit. It grades our stored probability, which had Jacksonville at 76.1%: the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from an 8-point line, with the Jaguars as the designated home team on a neutral field. Jacksonville won, by two, on the final snap. The model’s own read on this game was past the review threshold, so the page printed no lean before kickoff. A call nobody could see is not a record, and it is not graded here. The quarterback gate read PASS. The ledger holds no position: its one row on this game, an Eagles moneyline, was voided on 2026-10-07 and counts in neither direction. The final pre-kickoff board carried six PLAY rows, all HIGH, and they went 4-2. Jalen Hurts over 0.5 touchdown passes, YES at 65.5¢, closed 64.5¢: he threw one, to Darius Cooper, a win. Hurts under 24.5 and under 29.5 rushing yards, YES at 54.5¢ and 43¢ (so the NO cost 45.5¢ and 57¢), closed 53.5¢ and 44.5¢: two carries for two yards, both wins. Bhayshul Tuten over 1.5 catches, YES at 48.5¢, closed 48.5¢: two catches, a win. The two losses ran through the same player. Parker Washington under 4.5 catches, YES at 50.5¢ (NO 49.5¢), closed 51.5¢, and he caught six for 124 yards; Trevor Lawrence under 1.5 touchdown passes, YES at 49.5¢ (NO 50.5¢), closed 50.5¢, and he threw two, both to Washington. Fifteen visible WATCH rows went 5-10 and are graded apart, never folded into the record. Tuten’s rushing ladder split on 72 yards (under 79.5 and 89.5 won; under 49.5, 59.5 and 69.5 lost), Tuten over 9.5 receiving yards and both Brenton Strange overs won, and Lawrence under 9.5, 14.5 and 19.5 rushing yards all lost on 25. Cooper over 2.5 and 3.5 catches lost on two, Washington under 5.5 catches lost on six, and Brian Thomas Jr. over 1.5 catches lost: he was targeted three times and caught none. Six passing-yards rows on Lawrence and Hurts are suppressed stats the board never displayed, and they count in neither direction.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Eagles −2.5 → Jaguars −7.5
Total
44.5 → 41.5
Moneyline
PHI −130 / JAX +110 → PHI +285 / JAX −360

The spread moved toward the side that won. The total fell 3 to 41.5; the game landed on 36.

How it happened

Q1

A 90-yard return wiped out, two ejections, and Lawrence to Washington for 51

Josh Cameron returned the opening kickoff 90 yards to the end zone, but offsetting penalties erased it, and Jacksonville’s Bryan Thomas Jr. and Philadelphia’s Jeremiah Trotter Jr. were both disqualified. The Eagles’ first drive ended on downs at the Jacksonville 37 when Will Shipley was stopped on fourth-and-1. The Jaguars then went 63 yards in three plays, the last a 51-yard touchdown from Lawrence to Washington.

Opening kickoff
90-yard return nullified (offsetting penalties)
Disqualified
Bryan Thomas Jr. (JAX), Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (PHI)
Jacksonville touchdown drive
3 plays · 63 yds · 1:26
After one
Jaguars 7, Eagles 0

ESPN — play-by-play

Q2

Shipley from 2, Hurts to Cooper for 62, and Zack Baun’s stop on the last snap of the half

Philadelphia tied it with a 13-play, 64-yard drive that took 7:27 and ended with Shipley’s two-yard run, then went ahead on its next possession when Hurts hit Cooper deep for a 62-yard touchdown. Jacksonville answered with 17 plays and reached the 1 with 15 seconds left. A run went nowhere, two passes fell incomplete, and on fourth-and-goal Baun got past Chris Rodriguez Jr. and dropped Tuten for a six-yard loss with one second left.

Halftime
Eagles 14, Jaguars 7
Jacksonville’s last drive of the half
17 plays · 68 yds · turnover on downs
Plays snapped from the 1
4, no points

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

Little from 34, a Quinyon Mitchell interception, and first-and-goal at the 1 again with nothing to show

Little’s 34-yarder made it 14-10 midway through the third quarter, and on Jacksonville’s next possession Mitchell intercepted Lawrence’s deep throw for Brian Thomas Jr. at the Philadelphia 26. Midway through the fourth, Strange caught a 27-yard pass to the 1. A false start, a two-yard run, two delay-of-game penalties and a nine-yard catch later, Lawrence’s fourth-down throw for Jakobi Meyers fell incomplete at the 5.

After three
Eagles 14, Jaguars 10
Jacksonville red zone
0 TD in 3 trips
Jacksonville penalties
13 for 100 yds
Total yards
JAX 408 · PHI 232

ESPN — box score

Q4

Washington from 27 and a missed extra point, Elliott from 48, then Abdullah for 53 and Little from 57

After a Philadelphia three-and-out, Jacksonville went 51 yards in five plays and Lawrence found Washington for 27 yards and a 16-14 lead with 3:20 left, but Little’s extra point went wide left. Hurts moved the Eagles 32 yards in nine plays and Elliott kicked the 48-yarder with eight seconds left. Abdullah’s 53-yard return left one second, and Little’s 57-yarder won it. “I didn’t make the right decision, and I lost us that game,” Sirianni said.

Final
Jaguars 19, Eagles 17
Lawrence
24 of 39 · 331 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
Washington
6 catches · 124 yds · 2 TD
Hurts
21 of 40 · 220 yds · 1 TD
Eagles rushing
22 yds

AP via ESPN — Cam Little’s 57-yard FG gives Jaguars 19-17 win over Eagles in wild finish in London

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game. There is no live nfl_weekly_edges row for it (the Eagles moneyline was voided on 2026-10-07), and grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every outcome above is derived from the ESPN box score and play-by-play, and the prop grades come from a script run against the box score (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W5_SUNDAY_RECAPS_2026-10-12/prop-reconciliation-w05-sunday.csv), never by hand. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • The DraftKings line moved ten points, from Jacksonville +2.5 to −7.5. The AP reports that Philadelphia played without Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith and with a makeshift offensive line, and Jonathan Greenard (ankle) was ruled out before the game, but ESPN’s core-odds endpoint carries no timestamp for the open, so this recap does not claim what moved the line.
  • The two disqualified players are named from the AP recap and the play-by-play. Bryan Thomas Jr. (“Bry.Thomas” in the play-by-play) is not receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (“Bri.Thomas”), who played, drew three targets and caught none, so his WATCH row is graded on a real zero, not a missing line.
  • The AP says Jacksonville used backup long snapper DaVon Hamilton after Ross Matiscik left with an apparent shoulder injury; the play-by-play lists Hamilton as the snapper from the first extra point on, so when Matiscik went out is not clear here.
  • The severity of Anton Harrison’s knee injury (carted off in the third quarter, per the AP), Matiscik’s shoulder, and for Philadelphia Jalyx Hunt (hurt on the last play of the first half), Michael Carter II (ruled out in the third quarter) and Shipley (foot, left late in the second quarter) was not known when this was published.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price; the DraftKings numbers are ESPN’s archived open and close.

Reporting verified 2026-10-12. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Cam Little’s 57-yard FG gives Jaguars 19-17 win over Eagles in wild finish in London

Philadelphia lost a Hall-of-Fame right tackle on Tuesday and traded its centre on Wednesday

This game turned over in 48 hours. Lane Johnson retired mid-season, Cam Jurgens was traded to Baltimore the next day, and Philadelphia will start a line with two brand-new pieces in front of a quarterback whose offense is already 31st in passing yards. Jacksonville is 3-1 with the best point differential in the AFC and is the designated home team in London. Both quarterbacks are healthy and confirmed, so there is nothing for our quarterback gate to adjust here — the uncertainty is five offensive linemen deep, and it is the kind our power ratings cannot see.

Jaguars pass rush · Eagles pass protection

Two new starters on the offensive line, one of them a rookie right tackle

Edge: Jaguars

This is the game. Lane Johnson retired on Tuesday — "my heart is telling me it’s time to say goodbye to football" — and since 2016 Philadelphia is 98-42-1 with him and 15-29 without him. The next day Cam Jurgens, in concussion protocol, was traded to Baltimore for a 2027 fourth-rounder and a 2028 second. Landon Dickerson is on injured reserve and is not eligible back until after this week. So the projected five is Mailata, Lampkin, a rookie centre who did not practise Wednesday, Steen, and a third-round rookie at right tackle. That rookie is the pressure point: against the Rams he allowed six pressures at an 18.8% rate, the worst figure on the line. Jacksonville is built to find exactly that — Travon Walker, Josh Hines-Allen and Arik Armstead combined for fifteen pressures against Cincinnati in a game with eleven quarterback hits, and the obvious plan is to rush four, put the best of them on the rookie, and drop seven behind it.

Lane Johnson
Retired mid-season 2026-10-06 — Eagles 98-42-1 with him since 2016, 15-29 without
Cam Jurgens
Traded to Baltimore 2026-10-07 for a 2027 4th and a 2028 2nd
Jaguars front vs Cincinnati, Week 4
Walker, Hines-Allen and Armstead: 15 combined pressures; 11 QB hits as a team

Source: Yahoo Sports — why Lane Johnson’s sudden retirement matters (2026-10-06)

Eagles run offense · Jaguars run defense

The league’s stingiest run defense against a back making his first career start

Edge: Jaguars

The normal way out of a broken offensive line is to run the ball and shorten the game. Philadelphia cannot. Jacksonville allows 2.8 yards a carry to running backs, the lowest figure in the league, and is second in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game; they held Cincinnati to 23 yards on fifteen carries, one of the five stingiest performances in franchise history. Into that, Philadelphia sends Will Shipley for his first career start — 59 carries for 182 yards and no touchdowns across 35 games since 2024 — because Saquon Barkley is week-to-week with a hamstring and Tank Bigsby is on injured reserve after core-muscle surgery. Dameon Pierce was elevated from the practice squad this week and Nick Sirianni called him an NFL starting running back, which is the kind of thing you say when the room is thin. The squeeze is the whole story of Philadelphia’s week: they cannot run into this front, and they are 31st in passing yards with a replacement-level line and no DeVonta Smith.

Jaguars run defense
2.8 yds per carry allowed to running backs — lowest in the NFL; 2nd in rush yards allowed per game
Will Shipley, career
59 carries, 182 yards, 0 TD in 35 games since 2024 — first career start
Eagles passing offense
31st in passing yards per game (160.8); 31st in offensive EPA

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Eagles–Jaguars Week 5 worksheet

Jaguars pass offense · Eagles pass rush

Trevor Lawrence throws deep more than anyone, into a pass rush that does not exist

Edge: Jaguars

Lawrence is having the best season of his career and he is doing it in precisely the way Philadelphia is least able to stop. He throws ten or more air yards on 43.3% of his attempts, the highest rate in the league, and completes 60% of those — top eight among quarterbacks in both EPA per play and success rate. Philadelphia cannot get home to disturb it: a 2.8% sack rate, 30th, and a 31.6% pressure rate, 26th. Through three games they had three sacks and no takeaways at all, one of only fifteen teams ever to open a season that way, before finally breaking the drought with a sack and two interceptions of Matthew Stafford in Week 4. The other half is Travis Hunter, who has become a genuine problem at cornerback — a 58.2 passer rating allowed on the season and a career-best Week 4 in which he gave up 26 yards and broke up two passes. Against a Philadelphia receiver room reduced to two rookies with Smith and Marquise Brown both out of practice, that is a closed door.

Lawrence downfield
NFL-high 43.3% of throws 10+ air yards, 60.0% completed on them, 6 TD; 843 yds, 8 TD / 2 INT
Eagles pass rush
2.8% sack rate (30th) · 31.6% pressure rate (26th) · 0 takeaways through three games
Travis Hunter at cornerback
58.2 passer rating allowed; Week 4 career best — 26 yards allowed, 2 pass breakups

Source: PFF — Travis Hunter delivers a career-best performance against Cincinnati (2026-10-05)

What this read does not know

  • Our model is several points off the market on this game, and the reason is almost certainly our model rather than the market. Two of the three facts that reshaped this matchup — a mid-season retirement on Tuesday and a trade on Wednesday — happened after this week’s power ratings were built, and a power rating has no way to represent them. The market has moved roughly six points since the line opened, in one direction, on exactly that news. So the gap between our number and theirs is not an edge we found; it is information we have not priced. The board’s own verdict on this game is PASS, and we publish no position on it.
  • The dog-lean pattern applies here and we should name it. A measured walk-forward over 2013-2024 found that with our current blend 84% of leans of two or more points land on the underdog and those leans hit 50.2% against the spread in weeks four to six — a coin flip. Our lean on this game points at the underdog. Treat it as the structural artefact it probably is, not as a read.
  • Nobody has a game-status designation yet, on either team. Today is Thursday; official OUT, DOUBTFUL and QUESTIONABLE designations land Friday. Everything in the read above rests on Wednesday’s practice participation. Barkley (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (hamstring) were both non-participants and are both expected to miss, but neither is formally ruled out, and Dallas Goedert being limited was his first practice since a Week 2 knee sprain — a genuinely new data point that supersedes earlier reporting that he would miss the game.
  • Philadelphia’s actual starting five is a projection, not a fact. Every published offensive-line projection we could find either predates the Jurgens trade or omits it. Willie Lampkin at left guard is reported as the next man up rather than a confirmed start, and the rookie centre did not practise Wednesday although he played every snap against the Rams. We do not know who snaps the ball.
  • Jacksonville’s defense is two different defenses depending on the metric, and we should not pretend otherwise. They are second in the league in points allowed and second in rushing yards allowed — and 31st in passing yards allowed, 30th in yards per attempt, and 25th in total yards. The gap is bend-don’t-break plus takeaways: a league-low 2.2% passing touchdown rate and a league-best plus-six turnover margin in four games. Turnover margin at that rate is not repeatable, and Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards on them last week and lost. Any read that treats this defense as uniformly elite is fitting to points and takeaways rather than to play.
  • The travel angle is thinner than it looks and we have not confirmed the key part of it. Kickoff is 9:30 a.m. ET, which is mid-afternoon locally, so neither body clock is being asked for anything extreme. Philadelphia is taking an unusually aggressive approach — an overnight flight out Friday, under 36 hours on the ground, Sirianni saying only that "a lot of research went through it" — while Jacksonville is the designated home team in the first of two straight London games. We could not confirm from any source that Jacksonville actually remains in England between the two; that is an inference from the schedule, not a sourced fact, and we have not confirmed their departure day either.
  • Our schedule does not name the venue. It carries `neutral: true` and a 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff and nothing else. Tottenham Hotspur Stadium comes from both clubs’ own announcements, not from our data, and the neutral-site handling for this game only became correct in the refresh after 2026-10-07.

Reporting verified 2026-10-08. Further sources: Yahoo Sports — why Lane Johnson’s sudden retirement matters (2026-10-06) · baltimoreravens.com — Ravens trade for centre Cam Jurgens (2026-10-07) · philadelphiaeagles.com — Eagles at Jaguars injury report, Week 5 (2026-10-07) · philadelphiaeagles.com — how to watch Eagles at Jaguars, Week 5 London (Tottenham Hotspur Stadium) · jaguars.com — official 2026 London matchups (Week 5 Tottenham, Week 6 Wembley) · Sharp Football Analysis — Eagles–Jaguars Week 5 worksheet · Jaguars On SI — how the defense should attack the Eagles with Lane Johnson retiring · PFF — Travis Hunter delivers a career-best performance against Cincinnati (2026-10-05) · Jaguars On SI — the good and not-so-good from Jacksonville’s first month · The Philadelphia Inquirer — the Eagles’ London travel plan (2026-10-05) · philadelphiaeagles.com — Rams at Eagles Week 4 game recap · Pro Football Reference — 2026 Jacksonville Jaguars · Pro Football Reference — 2026 Philadelphia Eagles · CBS Philadelphia — Saquon Barkley’s status, week-to-week with a hamstring (2026-10-05)

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 5 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 11
AWAY PHI -1.6
vs JAX -8
HOME JAX +2.8
Fair (books) · JAX 76% home win prob
Kalshi · JAX — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 London, United Kingdom PASS — no position

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Eagles

24%

fair value (books)

Jaguars

76%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

63%

Madden 27

37%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

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The Ladder — Eagles at Jaguars How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Eagles at JaguarsSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Eagles at Jaguars Kalshi spread ladder for Week 5: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Eagles–Jaguars spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Eagles vs Jaguars power ratings (Week 5) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Philadelphia Eagles-1.623rdAverage
    Jacksonville Jaguars+2.85thPlayoff

    Eagles and Jaguars season outlook

    PHIJAX
    Average wins6.610.5
    Make playoffs12%80%
    Win division10%74%
    Win Super Bowl0.7%7.8%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Eagles vs Jaguars — player pages

    All players →

    Saquon Barkley

    RB

    DeVonta Smith

    WR

    Parker Washington

    WR

    Bhayshul Tuten

    RB

    Brian Thomas Jr.

    WR

    Trevor Lawrence

    QB

    Makai Lemon

    WR

    Jakobi Meyers

    WR

    Dallas Goedert

    TE

    Chris Rodriguez Jr.

    RB

    Brenton Strange

    TE

    Travis Hunter

    WR

    Tanner McKee

    QB

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: No home field: pricing Eagles–Jaguars on neutral ground

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19 — the graded call is above.

    The schedule flags this one as a neutral-site game, which changes how the number is built. The model zeroes out the usual 2.5-point home adjustment, so the line is pure ratings: +2.8 for the Jaguars against -1.6 for the Eagles, giving the Jaguars by 3 and 58% to win. The Jaguars are the designated home team on paper only. Take home field out and the ratings gap is all that is left — which is why this number is a full 2.5 points different from what the same matchup would price at in Jacksonville.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jaguars offense grades +2.2 (8th of 32) against a Eagles defense at -1.2 (18th) — 3.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Eagles offense (-0.8, 24th) meets the Jaguars defense (-0.2, 11th), a 0.5-point gap.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Jaguars at 10.5 wins (favored in 12 of 17) and the Eagles at 6.6 (favored in 9) — 3.9 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 11th-hardest game on the Jaguars' schedule and the 3rd-hardest on the Eagles'.

    One team has owned this series: the Eagles are 5-2 in 7 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Eagles won 28-23 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Jaguars are 0-4. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Jaguars at 58% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT11PHIJAC, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Eagles vs Jaguars on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT11PHIJAC
    Market-implied (Jaguars)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Jaguars)
    76%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 76% for the Jaguars. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Eagles vs Jaguars trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueJaguarsTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig77% 77cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket.com (international)no captured price for this game — international bookInformational
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Eagles vs Jaguars

    Jaguars vs. Texans: Find the Edge on Kalshi! 🏈 | 7 Oracles NFL Prediction Market Analysis — video thumbnail4:36Jaguars vs. Texans: Find the Edge on Kalshi! 🏈 | 7 Oracles NFL Prediction Market AnalysisOct 16, 2026NFL Win Totals 2026: Jets, Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns & Raiders | Fade the Field Ep. 14 — video thumbnail45:52NFL Win Totals 2026: Jets, Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns & Raiders | Fade the Field Ep. 14Jul 28, 2026Fade The Field Ep. 13 — video thumbnail42:21Fade The Field Ep. 13Jul 21, 2026

    Eagles vs Jaguars — frequently asked

    Who won Eagles vs Jaguars in Week 5?

    Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19 — final, played Sunday, October 11, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Jaguars by 8 (76% to win), and the Jaguars won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Eagles vs Jaguars before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Jaguars by 8 points, a 76% win probability over the Eagles. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT11PHIJAC market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    Is there a home-field advantage in this game?

    No. The schedule flags it as a neutral-site game, so the model applies zero home-field points instead of the usual 2.5. The Jaguars are the designated home team for scheduling purposes only. The resulting line — Jaguars by 3 — is the raw ratings gap between +2.8 and -1.6.

    How do you take a position on Eagles vs Jaguars?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11PHIJAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jaguars at 74c or below, or the Eagles at 22c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    Where do the Jaguars and Eagles play this game?

    Philadelphia Eagles and the Jacksonville Jaguars meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, United Kingdom on Sunday, October 11, 2026, NFL Week 5. The Jaguars are the designated home team, so the game does not carry home-field advantage in our model.

    What does the model project for the Jaguars and Eagles this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Jaguars at 10.5 wins (favored in 12) and the Eagles at 6.6 (favored in 9). This game ranks 11th-hardest on the Jaguars' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Eagles', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Eagles vs Jaguars?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT11PHIJAC, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Eagles vs Jaguars on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 5 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT11PHIJAC has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    Is Eagles moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 24% against a market price implying 23%, an edge of +1.0 points. Model 24% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 23% on PHI — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

    Trade this game on Kalshi →Jaguars hub →Eagles hub →Kalshi NFL hub →Week 5 edge board →NFL predictions hub →

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    Next up for each team

    Eagles: Week 6 vs PanthersModel line →Jaguars: Week 6 vs TexansModel line →

    More Week 5 matchups

    Buccaneers at CowboysModel: Cowboys −9Bengals at DolphinsModel: Bengals −2Raiders at PatriotsModel: Patriots −8Vikings at SaintsModel: Saints −0.5Browns at JetsModel: Jets −1Colts at SteelersModel: Steelers −2Texans at TitansModel: Texans −1.5Giants at CommandersModel: Commanders −6.5Broncos at ChargersModel: Broncos −0.5Lions at CardinalsModel: Lions −1.5Bears at PackersModel: Packers −4.549ers at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −4.5Ravens at FalconsModel: Falcons −4.5Bills at RamsModel: Rams −3

    Full Week 5 board →Next: NFL Week 6 predictions →

    Same model, inside your AI agent

    The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.

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