Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, United Kingdom (neutral site)
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Jaguars by 3 in Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL Week 5 2026 — 61% to win, and a neutral-site game, so the model applies no home-field adjustment. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11PHIJAC yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Jaguars at 56c or below (or Eagles at 34c or below) is where the model would take a position.
PHI
+2.4
JAX
+2.6
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Eagles
39%
model win prob
Jaguars
61%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
63%
Madden 27
37%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT11PHIJAC hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Jaguars at 56c or below, or the Eagles at 34c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Eagles at Jaguars
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Jaguars −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Jaguars −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Jaguars −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Jaguars −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Jaguars −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Jaguars −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Jaguars −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Jaguars −10.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | ||||||||||
2 more rungsJaguars −13.5 → Jaguars −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| ||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
No home field: pricing Eagles–Jaguars on neutral ground
The schedule flags this one as a neutral-site game, which changes how the number is built. The model zeroes out the usual 2.5-point home adjustment, so the line is pure ratings: +2.6 for the Jaguars against +2.4 for the Eagles, giving the Jaguars by 3 and 61% to win. The Jaguars are the designated home team on paper only. Take home field out and the ratings gap is all that is left — which is why this number is a full 2.5 points different from what the same matchup would price at in Jacksonville.
No unit matchup in this game separates by even a point on our scale. The Jaguars grade +1.7 on offense (9th of 32) and 0.0 on defense (9th); the Eagles +0.4 (17th) and +1.7 (4th). Evenly-graded units on both sides of the ball is exactly the profile that produces a model line built from nothing but home field, though special teams does tilt to the Jaguars (+0.9, 3rd).
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.4 projected wins for the Jaguars against 9.6 for the Eagles, favored in 11 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 8th-hardest on the Jaguars' schedule and 6th-hardest on the Eagles'.
One team has owned this series: the Eagles are 5-2 in 7 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Eagles won 28-23 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Jaguars are 0-4. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 61% on the Jaguars here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11PHIJAC, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Jaguars 61%, Eagles 39%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Jaguars contracts a buy at 56c or below and Eagles contracts a buy at 34c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Eagles vs Jaguars on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT11PHIJAC
- Market-implied (Jaguars)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Jaguars)
- 61%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11PHIJAC yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Jaguars at 56c or below, or the Eagles at 34c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Eagles vs Jaguars trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Jaguars | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Eagles vs Jaguars — frequently asked
Who is favored in Eagles vs Jaguars in Week 5?
Our power-rating model picks the Jaguars by 3 points, a 61% win probability over the Eagles, for a projected score of Jaguars 24, Eagles 21 on a ratings-implied 44.4-point total. The Jaguars rate 6th of 32 (+2.6) and the Eagles 8th (+2.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11PHIJAC yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Is there a home-field advantage in this game?
No. The schedule flags it as a neutral-site game, so the model applies zero home-field points instead of the usual 2.5. The Jaguars are the designated home team for scheduling purposes only. The resulting line — Jaguars by 3 — is the raw ratings gap between +2.6 and +2.4.
How do you take a position on Eagles vs Jaguars?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11PHIJAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jaguars at 56c or below, or the Eagles at 34c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Where do the Jaguars and Eagles play this game?
Philadelphia Eagles and the Jacksonville Jaguars meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, United Kingdom on Sunday, October 11, 2026, NFL Week 5. The Jaguars are the designated home team, so the game does not carry home-field advantage in our model.
What does the model project for the Jaguars and Eagles this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Jaguars at 9.4 wins (favored in 11) and the Eagles at 9.6 (favored in 11). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Jaguars' schedule and 6th-hardest on the Eagles', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Eagles vs Jaguars?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11PHIJAC yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Jaguars at 56c or below or the Eagles at 34c or below, off a 3-point line.
Can you trade Eagles vs Jaguars on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 5 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT11PHIJAC. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 61% on a team like the Jaguars?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Jaguars at 61% over the Eagles sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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