Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 18, 2026 · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, October 18, 2026): Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14 — NFL Week 6, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Panthers by 3 (60% to win); the Panthers won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Panthers at 59c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14Final
Model call: HITOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Panthers by 3 (60% to win). The Panthers won — that call landed.
Closing-line value on the Panthers: +10c — we archived the Panthers at 49c on Oct 11; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 59c on Oct 18. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 7 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Carolina won at Lincoln Financial Field with Tanner McKee starting for the Eagles, who were also without Saquon Barkley, per the AP. Philadelphia punted on its first five possessions, trailed 10-7 at halftime and never led. A 14-play, 92-yard Panthers drive that bridged the third and fourth quarters, extended by Young’s 32-yard throw to Jalen Coker on third-and-8 and Hubbard’s 19-yard run on fourth-and-1, made it 19-7, and Young’s second touchdown to Tremble sealed it after McKee’s touchdown to DeVonta Smith. The Eagles have lost four straight. DraftKings opened Philadelphia −6.5 and closed Carolina −3, a 9.5-point swing; the Panthers won by 11, and 39 points finished under the opening 43.5 and a half-point under the closing 39.5.
Panthers 25—Eagles 14
Final✓ Call hitThe chip reads a hit. It grades our stored probability, which had Philadelphia at 39.5%, so Carolina at 60.5%: the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 3-point line, and the Panthers won. The model’s own read was Carolina by 1.3, a 1.7-point lean toward the Eagles, tier NONE, and Carolina won by 11: the lean was wrong. The quarterback gate read ADJUSTED, with McKee priced as Philadelphia’s starter. The ledger holds no live position, and all three of its rows were voided before kickoff, so none counts in either direction: a MODERATE Eagles moneyline at 55¢ (no_longer_edge, 2026-10-13), a second Eagles row at 50.5¢ voided on 2026-10-14 when the anchored line crossed zero from Philadelphia to Carolina (side_flip), and a HIGH Panthers moneyline at 49.5¢ voided on 2026-10-15 (no_longer_edge). Carolina won; that row is not a win. The final pre-kickoff board carried one PLAY row and it won: Young over 0.5 touchdown passes, HIGH, YES at 76.5¢, closed 76.5¢ (CLV 0), and he threw two. Twelve visible WATCH rows went 7-5 and are graded apart, never folded into the record. Young under 9.5, 14.5 and 19.5 rushing yards all won on six, Young over 1.5 touchdown passes won, McKee over 0.5 touchdown passes won, and Makai Lemon over 1.5 and 2.5 catches won on three. Darren Waller over 2.5 catches and over 14.5 and 24.5 receiving yards all lost on zero from two targets, Dontayvion Wicks over 2.5 catches lost on two, and Brycen Tremayne over 1.5 catches lost: he appears in the box score only on special-teams tackles. Nine rows on suppressed stats (passing-yards strikes on Young and McKee and a Hubbard touchdown row) were never displayed and count in neither direction.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that won. The total fell 4 to 39.5; the game landed on 39.
Q1
McKee was sacked for an 11-yard loss on Philadelphia’s first play, per the AP, and the Eagles punted on each of their first five possessions. Fitzgerald’s 47-yard field goal on Carolina’s first drive was the only score of the first quarter.
Q2
Young capped a five-play, 35-yard drive with a 12-yard touchdown to Tremble. Philadelphia answered with its best drive of the half, 10 plays and 78 yards helped by a 22-yard pass interference penalty, and Pierce scored from 2.
Q3
Fitzgerald made it 13-7 from 52 yards, his 11th straight field goal to open the season per the AP. Starting at its own 8 with 6:17 left in the third, Carolina converted third-and-8 from its 10 on Young’s 32-yard throw to Coker and fourth-and-1 on Hubbard’s 19-yard run, and Hubbard scored early in the fourth. The two-point try failed.
Q4
McKee hit Smith for a 19-yard touchdown to make it 19-14 with 10:42 left. After a Carolina three-and-out, the Eagles’ next possession came apart on a fumbled snap and ended in a punt. Young then found Tremble for a 19-yard touchdown; Fitzgerald missed the extra point, and a 27-yard catch by Moore on Carolina’s next drive helped run the clock. Philadelphia’s last drive ended on downs.
Reporting verified 2026-10-18. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Bryce Young throws for 2 TDs and leads Panthers to 25-14 win over injury-riddled Eagles
Both quarterbacks are confirmed, so our gate is quiet; our board is not. It carries two reads on this game that point different ways and are both true: a Carolina moneyline position that exists because Kalshi is cheaper on the Panthers than the books are, and a model lean toward Philadelphia that is the model’s own read of the matchup. The matchup page serves both numbers. What this page adds is the football under them: an Eagles offense that may again be without Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and any healthy running back, against a Carolina defense that cannot cover anyone outside — and a Carolina offense that gains ten yards on a quarter of its snaps.
Eagles skill positions · the injury and practice picture
This is the input that swung the model last week and it has not resolved. Barkley missed London with a hamstring strain and was not at Wednesday’s practice; Will Shipley did not practise with a foot; Tank Bigsby is on injured reserve. The options behind them are Dameon Pierce, Carson Steele and, tentatively, Jaydon Blue — and in London, without Barkley and Bigsby, Eagles backs managed twenty yards on sixteen carries. DeVonta Smith did not practise either, with a hamstring and a toe, after doing individual work on the side; Hollywood Brown was limited with an ankle. Hurts has had Smith and Dallas Goedert on the field together for 39 dropbacks all season. The offensive line is the other half of it: centre Drew Kendall did not practise with a knee and did not play last week, Tyler Steen was limited with the shoulder he hurt in London, and Landon Dickerson is limited inside his return window from injured reserve. Philadelphia is 2-3 on three straight losses and gains ten yards on under 16% of plays, 30th; it is hard to see which of those numbers improves with this personnel.
Source: PhillyVoice — Eagles–Panthers Week 6 injury report, with analysis (Jimmy Kempski, 2026-10-14)
Panthers pass rush · Eagles pass protection
Carolina gets pressure on 40% of dropbacks, eighth in the league, and the Eagles’ line has a specific hole: a league-high 34% of Hurts’s pressures are credited to the left guard. Kendall’s absence at centre and Steen’s shoulder at right guard do not help a line the worksheet simply calls a mess. Hurts under this offense is also not the Hurts of two seasons ago — 57.8% completions, ahead of only Winston and Willis; 6.1 yards an attempt, 26th; a quarter of his dropbacks losing a full point of expected value, worse than everyone but Darnold; and career lows in both rushing attempts and rushing yards per game. The second half is where it shows. Philadelphia averages 2.88 points a drive before halftime, third in the league, and 0.79 after it, the league’s lowest; it has been outscored 66-23 in second halves, the worst differential in football. Carolina’s one caveat on the rush is Jaelan Phillips, limited on the estimated report with a hamstring and the player the Panthers least want to lose.
Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Panthers–Eagles Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar)
Panthers pass offense · Eagles pressure and coverage
The most interesting split on the page. Philadelphia’s pass defense is elite when it gets home — a 34% completion rate allowed under pressure, second in the league, with no touchdown passes conceded — and ordinary when it does not: 73.4% and 7.9 yards an attempt from a clean pocket, 20th and 24th. Young is the mirror of that. From a clean pocket he completes 77% at 9.2 yards an attempt, fifth-best in football; pressured, 44% at 6.1. He is eighth in yards per attempt, sixth in yards per completion, averaging a career-high 8.3 air yards a throw and completing 61% of his passes ten-plus yards downfield, and Carolina throws 8% over expectation, second in the league. So the game inside the game is whether Philadelphia’s edge rush shows up: Jalyx Hunt did not practise with a knee and ankle and Vic Fangio called his return "pretty miraculous" if it happens; Jonathan Greenard was limited with an ankle. Philadelphia has allowed 331 passing yards to Lawrence and 317 to Stafford in its last two games.
Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Panthers–Eagles Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar)
Eagles pass offense · Panthers coverage
Carolina’s defense is 27th in yards per play and the reason is outside. Jaycee Horn, its best corner, tore a quad and is expected to miss a couple of months; Mike Jackson, the second corner, is on injured reserve with a groin. Akayleb Evans and rookie Will Lee are expected to start, and in the one game Carolina has played without both, Jared Goff threw for 412 yards on 52 attempts. That is the exposure. The problem for Philadelphia is who exploits it: Smith did not practise, Brown is limited, and Hurts is completing under 58% of his throws to anyone. Carolina also allows 36.5 rushing yards a game to quarterbacks, 31st, which is the one Hurts number pointing the other way — except that his rushing volume is at a career low and the calf is on the report for a second week. Carolina is coming off its bye; Philadelphia is coming off a transatlantic flight and a third straight loss.
Source: PhillyVoice — Eagles–Panthers Week 6 injury report, with analysis (Jimmy Kempski, 2026-10-14)
Reporting verified 2026-10-15. Further sources: philadelphiaeagles.com — Panthers vs Eagles injury report, Week 6 (2026-10-14) · panthers.com — Week 6 Wednesday injury report (estimated; two players listed as not participating) · PhillyVoice — Eagles–Panthers Week 6 injury report, with analysis (Jimmy Kempski, 2026-10-14) · Sharp Football Analysis — Panthers–Eagles Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar) · NBC Sports ProFootballTalk — Hurts won’t say much about "very unique" calf injury · Bleeding Green Nation — Eagles injury report: Hurts, Barkley, Smith among 24 listed · SI — Panthers vs Eagles Week 6 preview (records, Young season line; injury table partly stale, not used) · ESPN — 2026 NFL standings (used in place of Pro Football Reference, which 403’d this session)
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
CAR
-0.9
PHI
-1.6
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Panthers
60%
fair value (books)
Eagles
40%
fair value (books)
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25%
Madden 27
75%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
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Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14 — the graded call is above.
The Panthers come in with 7 more days off — 7 days' rest for the Eagles against 14 days' rest for the Panthers. We measured what that is worth across 3,120 games since 2013: about a tenth of a point per day, so roughly 0.7 points here. The market already charges for rest — closing lines move about 0.14 points per day of it — and rested teams have not beaten the close for it. The rest gap is real but small. What moves this game is the 0.7-point ratings gap, which has the Panthers by 1.5, 54% to win. One input in this line is not a rating: the Eagles are without their usual starting quarterback (Tanner McKee starts), and our QB-out term moves the line 3.2 points toward the Panthers — already inside the number above.
The Panthers come in off the Lions, the Eagles off the Jaguars. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Panthers offense grades +0.6 (15th of 32) against a Eagles defense at -1.2 (18th) — 1.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Eagles offense (-0.8, 24th) meets the Panthers defense (-1.9, 23rd), a 1.1-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Eagles at 6.6 wins (favored in 9 of 17) and the Panthers at 8.1 (favored in 5) — 1.5 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Eagles' schedule and the 8th-hardest on the Panthers'.
One team has owned this series: the Eagles are 8-3 in 11 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2024: Eagles won 22-16 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Eagles are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Panthers at 54% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18CARPHI, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 40% for the Eagles. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Eagles | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 40% 40c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket.com (international) | no captured price for this game — international book | Informational |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game — US exchange | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
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Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14 — final, played Sunday, October 18, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Panthers by 3 (60% to win), and the Panthers won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Panthers by 3 points, a 60% win probability over the Eagles. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT18CARPHI market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Barely. The Panthers have 7 more days off, and across 3,120 games since 2013 a rest day has been worth about a tenth of a point, so roughly 0.7 points here — not the point or two it is often credited with. Closing lines already charge about 0.14 points per rest day, and teams with the edge have not beaten the close for it (48.5% against the spread in the 10-days-vs-7 spot, n=301). The 1.5-point line and 60% win probability are driven by the ratings gap.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT18CARPHI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Eagles at 38c or below, or the Panthers at 58c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Carolina Panthers visit the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, October 18, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 6, at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Eagles at 6.6 wins (favored in 9) and the Panthers at 8.1 (favored in 5). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Eagles' schedule and 8th-hardest on the Panthers', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18CARPHI, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 6 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT18CARPHI has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Panthers at 54% over the Eagles sit in that band, off a 1.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Our model puts it at 61% against a market price implying 59%, an edge of +1.5 points. Model 60% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 59% on CAR — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.
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Seahawks at BroncosModel: even
Texans at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −2.5
Bears at FalconsModel: Falcons −0.5
Ravens at BrownsModel: Browns −4.5
Titans at ColtsModel: Colts −6.5
Jets at PatriotsModel: Patriots −8.5
Saints at GiantsModel: Giants −0.5
Steelers at BuccaneersModel: Steelers −2
Cardinals at RamsModel: Rams −9.5
Chargers at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −5.5
Bills at RaidersModel: Bills −3
Cowboys at PackersModel: Packers −4.5
Commanders at 49ersModel: 49ers −7The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
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