Las Vegas Raiders: 2026 Win Total & Market Edge
Board as of · prices live
The prediction-market read on the Raiders: our 10,000-season simulation projects 7.5 wins in 2026 (21st of 32, Below Avg tier; model 7.6), beside the live Kalshi win-total line. Full schedule, per-game win probabilities and AFC West standing below.
This week on the boardNFL Week 7 predictions →NFL Week 8 predictions — early lines →Week 6 results →
Week 7 gamesPatriots at BearsSteelers at Saints49ers at FalconsBengals at RavensBuccaneers at PanthersGiants at TexansColts at VikingsDolphins at JetsBrowns at TitansBroncos at CardinalsPackers at LionsRams at RaidersChiefs at SeahawksCowboys at Eagles
Entering Week 7: experts 19 · market-implied 23 · PMP 29 — a 10-place split between Experts and PMP. Experts vs. market on the Raiders →
2026 win total: our model vs. Kalshi
Las Vegas Raiders
± 1.6 · 21st of 32
Model agrees with the market
Divergence is projected wins minus the ladder-implied market line, in wins — LOW on the one ladder every season-wins surface grades on (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); OVER / UNDER fires at ±2.0. Projected wins are the 10,000-season simulation mean; the model — wins already banked plus the rest of the season — reads 7.6. No single rung sits near 50¢.
See all 32 teams on the win-totals board → Informational only — verify the market and trade responsibly.
📊 Deep-dive: Raiders win total: the only fade on the board, and why
Embed this team card on your site
A live card locked to the Las Vegas Raiders — projected 2026 wins against the Kalshi KXNFLWINS line for this one club, not "whichever team has the biggest gap today" — for a fan site, a newsletter or a subreddit sidebar. Free; the credit line is the only ask. No API key, no signup.
The MPU (300×250) and Leaderboard (728×90) sizes are IAB standard ad units — paste one where an ad already goes. Every NFL prediction-market widget.
Article width · 560×320
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-team-card/raiders/hero" width="560" height="320" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Las Vegas Raiders — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Las Vegas Raiders 2026 win total and odds from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/teams/raiders?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-team-card">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Sidebar · 320×380
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-team-card/raiders/sidebar" width="320" height="380" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Las Vegas Raiders — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Las Vegas Raiders 2026 win total and odds from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/teams/raiders?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-team-card">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
MPU · ad slot · 300×250
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-team-card/raiders/mpu" width="300" height="250" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Las Vegas Raiders — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Las Vegas Raiders 2026 win total and odds from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/teams/raiders?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-team-card">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Leaderboard · ad slot · 728×90
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-team-card/raiders/leaderboard" width="728" height="90" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Las Vegas Raiders — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Las Vegas Raiders 2026 win total and odds from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/teams/raiders?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-team-card">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
The consensus spread
Three independent estimates of the same season on one line: the expected wins implied by the live Kalshi ladder, our 10,000-season simulation, and EA’s Madden 27 simulation. Where they disagree is the whole signal.
Our sim and the Madden simulation land on opposite sides of the 7.59 market line. They disagree with each other, so this is a market to watch rather than one to build a position in.
Madden is a bit higher on the Raiders than our model, 7 places apart — a real but modest difference of opinion.
Where the season actually lands
A point estimate cannot tell a trader whether to take a position — the full distribution against the contract line can. Bars are the Madden 27 simulation over 10,000 seasons; the dashed marker is the live contract.
of clearing 7.59
-2.1pp vs a coin flip
Our probability from the 10,000-season simulation (mean 7.48 wins; model, banked wins plus the rest of the season, 7.55 ± 1.60). Bars: Madden 27 sim-2026, 10,000 iterations. Two methods, no shared inputs.
The Ladder — Raiders
All ladders →The season simulation at every Kalshi win-total rung, then the widest player-prop gap on this club this week. The rungs the market has not listed two-sided yet are drawn from the simulation alone.
Kalshi prices 8+ wins at 49¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 17+winsthin—outside band
- 16+winsthin—outside band
- 15+winsthin—outside band
- 14+winsthin—outside band
- 13+winsthin—outside band
- 12+wins—outside band
- 11+wins—outside band
- 10+wins—outside band
- 9+wins——
- 8+wins——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 7–8
- 7+wins——
- 6+wins—outside band
- 5+wins—outside band
- 4+winsthin—outside band
- 3+winsthin—outside band
- 2+winsthin—outside band
Priced. The market and the model tell the same story at every rung.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 4+ rec at 52¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 5+rec——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 3–4
- 4+rec53¢—
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 4+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 49¢, the books imply 47¢ — 1.1 points below the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 4+ rec at 52¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 3–4
- 4+rec53¢—
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 4+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 49¢, the books imply 47¢ — 1.1 points below the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Market edges
The season contract and the single game most likely to move it, graded on the same thresholds every other Gridiron Edge surface uses.
Season wins under 7.59
Our 10,000-season simulation projects 7.48 (model 7.55), the Madden 27 simulation 7.84, against 7.59 market-implied wins — a -0.11-win gap. LOW on the wins ladder (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); a side is flagged only at the 2.0-win STRONG rung, so the honest read is no position.
Week 17 at Cardinals
The truest coin flip on the schedule at 45%. Games this close are where a season win total is actually decided — and where a live in-week contract is most likely to be mispriced. Full read →
Informational only. Contracts can settle at $0 — verify the market and trade responsibly.
Power rating breakdown
Diverging from league average rather than four flat numbers, so a positive reads as a positive at a glance. Points per game.
Overall -3.2 ranks 29th of 32 (Below Avg tier). How Raiders rank on the points scale → Re-weight the model yourself →
Methodology: DAEPA model docs → (59.6% backtested straight-up accuracy across 3,266 games, no market line used).
The season path
Seventeen weeks as a heat ribbon — the shape of the season in one glance, each cell linking to that game’s full read. The sortable table stays below it.
Roster shape vs the league
Nine position groups against league average. Each axis is scaled on its own league range — a shared 0-100 scale flattens every roster into the same circle.
Dashed violet ring = league average. Number chip = rank of 32. Source: Madden 27 launch team composites (derived unit aggregates, no per-player data).
2026 schedule & model win probabilities
All 17 regular-season games. Played games show the final; the rest show Our %, the DAEPA margin (power-rating differential + 2.5-point home-field) run through a Normal model, σ=14.4 — those numbers plus the 3-3 already banked sum to the model's 7.6 wins; the 7.5-win headline above is the 10,000-season simulation, which adds rating uncertainty (and fits its own home-field, 2.0) on top of these same ratings. Madden % is the same question asked of Madden 27 talent composites, a model that shares none of our inputs.
Raiders player props vs the Kalshi line
Our projection against the live Kalshi contract. Every prop is an “X or more” contract that pays $1 if the player gets there, so the price of the side we call, in cents,is the market’s implied probability — the edge is the gap between that and ours, in percentage points. Closest strike to our projection first.
| Player | Contract | Call | Our odds | Mkt | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre TuckerWR | 4+ receptionsover 3.5 | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE |
All 29 player-prop edges for Week 7 →Locked numbers are Pro.
Raiders props: where the market prices are
The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — our Oracle calls are the opinion.
No Kalshi strike in this slice is 5¢+ off a consensus of 3+ sportsbooks right now. The wider gaps below are priced against two books, so they rank lower and read as thin.
| Player | Prop | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton JeantyLV v LAR | 50+ rush yds | 58.5¢ | 53.2%2bk | +5.3¢2 books | over · Novig 55.9¢under · Kalshi 43.7¢ |
| Ashton JeantyLV v LAR | 4+ rec | 52.0¢ | 53.1%5bk | -1.1¢ | over · ProphetX 52.8¢under · Novig 48.5¢ |
| Michael MayerLV v LAR | 4+ rec | 52.0¢ | 53.1%6bk | -1.1¢ | over · Novig 51¢under · FD 49¢ |
| Brock BowersLV v LAR | 7+ rec | 43.5¢ | 44.2%6bk | -0.7¢ | over · BetRivers 44.8¢under · Novig 57.4¢ |
| Ashton JeantyLV v LAR | 25+ rec yds | 52.5¢ | 52.0%3bk | +0.5¢ | over · BetRivers 53.9¢under · Novig 48.5¢ |
| Michael MayerLV v LAR | 30+ rec yds | 50.5¢ | 50.0%4bk | +0.5¢ | over · ESPN Bet 52.4¢under · Novig 50¢ |
| Tre TuckerLV v LAR | 40+ rec yds | 51.5¢ | 51.5%2bk | 0.0¢ | over · Novig 54.5¢under · Novig 50.5¢ |
| Tre TuckerWRLV v LAR | 4+ rec | 45.5¢ | 45.5%6bk | 0.0¢ | over · BetRivers 46.5¢under · Novig 53.5¢ |
See all 48 priced prop strikes on the board →+ 71 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.
Raiders player pages
All players →Tre Tucker
WR — Receptions
Ashton Jeanty
RB
Brock Bowers
TE
Jalen Nailor
WR
Mike Washington Jr.
RB
Michael Mayer
Cody White
Connor Heyward
Dylan Laube
Kirk Cousins
LV Raiders D/ST
Aidan O'Connell
Albert Okwuegbunam
Brandon Johnson
Carter Runyon
Chris Collier
Dareke Young
Dont'e Thornton
Ian Thomas
Jack Bech
Jalen Richard
Phillip Dorsett
Shedrick Jackson
One page per player: every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
AFC West ladder
Projected wins across the division, leader in gold — and four internal reads a click away.
Chiefs
11.2
+1.2
Broncos
10.2
+1.3
Raiders
7.5
-3.2
Chargers
4.3
-3.2
Model has the Raiders 3rd in the AFC West. Division hub →
Division odds: Raiders 5¢ to win the AFC West on Kalshi.
10,000-season simulation
How it works →Our current board, with the 94 games already played locked in and the remaining schedule played out 10,000 times with the league's actual tiebreaker procedure. The projection above is the middle of this; these are the odds around it. The sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games) — a separate fit from the +2.5 the game model uses on matchup pages.
Sim average wins
7.5
10,000 seasons · 17% reach 10+
Make playoffs
18%
33% win 6 or fewer
Win division
6%
0% take the 1 seed
Win Super Bowl
0.5%
28th of 32 · 1% reach it
The Raiders draw a 0.492 opponent win rate — the 21st-hardest schedule in the league.
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings. Real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule. No injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices.
Madden 27 outlook
Full board →A second opinion, built from Madden 27 launch ratings alone and played across the real 2026 schedule 10,000 times. It knows nothing about our own model — which is what makes the disagreement worth reading.
Madden rank
22
80.1 composite · QB 74
Simulated wins
7.8
28% reach 10+
Playoffs
35%
16% win division
Super Bowl
1.6%
SoS 0.494 (21st hardest)
Madden is a bit higher on the Raiders than our model, 7 places apart — a real but modest difference of opinion.
Madden-only inputs — no injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices. Average error on a season win total is 2.27 wins, so the distribution is the product, not the mean. The 10,000-season simulation →
Raiders 2026 — frequently asked
What is the Las Vegas Raiders win total for 2026?
The Kalshi KXNFLWINS-27 ladder implies an expected 7.6 wins for the Raiders in 2026. Our 10,000-season simulation on our DAEPA power ratings projects 7.5 wins — a 0.1-win agreement with the market (LOW on our wins ladder).
Where do the Raiders rank in our 2026 power ratings?
The Raiders sit at a -3.2-point power rating — 29th of 32 — in the Below Avg tier. That rating (offense -0.9, defense -2.4, special teams +0.1) is the input behind every Raiders prediction-market edge we publish.
Can you trade Las Vegas Raiders games on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists Raiders season win totals (KXNFLWINS), individual game winners (KXNFLGAME, which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff), plus division, conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position that settles at $1 or $0.
What division are the Raiders in for 2026?
The Raiders play in the AFC West, alongside Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers. Our model has them projected 3rd in the AFC West on 7.5 expected wins.
Get Raiders edges + the daily NFL prediction-market read — free to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Every NFL team
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
More Raiders markets
- NFL Week 7 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 8 predictions — early lines — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 6 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
- Will Derrick Henry score a TD? Live Kalshi odds → — Henry anytime TD, 2+ TDs and rushing-yard prices for every Ravens game, plus his TD record vs the market
- Markets 101: be the market maker, not the market taker → — Why the first-TD board prices out to ~118%, and how a resting bid a cent under the ask beats paying it
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
This team in the first-quarter report
Record, point differential, the market price then and now, our simulation and the next three games, on one card. Read the report →