Las Vegas Raiders: 2026 Win Total & Market Edge
Board as of · prices live
The prediction-market read on the Raiders: our 10,000-season simulation projects 6.0 wins in 2026 (32nd of 32, Rebuild tier; raw model 5.7), beside the live Kalshi win-total line. Full schedule, per-game win probabilities and AFC West standing below.
This week on the boardNFL Week 1 predictions →Week 2 predictions →
2026 win total: our model vs. Kalshi
Las Vegas Raiders
± 1.9 · 32nd of 32
Win-total market not open yet
Kalshi lists the Raiders season win-total ladder (KXNFLWINS-27LV) closer to the season — this fills in automatically when the market opens. The model projection above is live now.
See all 32 teams on the win-totals board → Informational only — verify the market and trade responsibly.
📊 Deep-dive: Raiders win total: the only fade on the board, and why
The Ladder — Raiders
All ladders →The season simulation at every Kalshi win-total rung, then the widest player-prop gap on this club this week. The rungs the market has not listed two-sided yet are drawn from the simulation alone.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3 more rungs1+ wins → 3+ wins · outside our published band, market only
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4+ wins | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5+ wins | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6+ wins | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7+ wins | — | 🔒 | — | YES → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8+ wins | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9 more rungs9+ wins → 17+ wins · outside our published band, market only
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Market edges
The season contract and the single game most likely to move it, graded on the same thresholds every other Gridiron Edge surface uses.
Season wins — contract not open
Kalshi lists the Raiders KXNFLWINS-27 ladder closer to the season. Our simulation already projects 5.95 wins; the moment the ladder opens, the divergence fills in here automatically.
Week 1 vs Dolphins
The truest coin flip on the schedule at 50%. Games this close are where a season win total is actually decided — and where a live in-week contract is most likely to be mispriced. Full read →
Informational only. Contracts can settle at $0 — verify the market and trade responsibly.
Power rating breakdown
Diverging from league average rather than four flat numbers, so a positive reads as a positive at a glance. Points per game.
Overall -6.0 ranks 32nd of 32 (Rebuild tier). How Raiders rank on the points scale → Re-weight the model yourself →
Methodology: DAEPA model docs → (59.6% backtested straight-up accuracy across 3,266 games, no market line used).
The season path
Seventeen weeks as a heat ribbon — the shape of the season in one glance, each cell linking to that game’s full read. The sortable table stays below it.
Roster shape vs the league
Nine position groups against league average. Each axis is scaled on its own league range — a shared 0-100 scale flattens every roster into the same circle.
Dashed violet ring = league average. Number chip = rank of 32. Source: Madden 27 launch team composites (derived unit aggregates, no per-player data).
2026 schedule & model win probabilities
All 17 regular-season games. Our % is the DAEPA margin (power-rating differential + 2.5-point home-field) run through a Normal model, σ=14.4 — those 17 numbers sum to the raw model's 5.7 wins; the 6.0-win headline above is the 10,000-season simulation, which adds rating uncertainty (and fits its own home-field, 2.0) on top of these same ratings. Madden % is the same question asked of Madden 27 talent composites, a model that shares none of our inputs.
Raiders props: where the market prices are
The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — the Oracle calls above are the opinion.
| Player | Prop | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock BowersLV v MIA | 6+ rec | 52.5¢ | 55% | -2.8¢ | over · Kalshi 54.7¢under · Novig 42¢ |
| Brock BowersLV v MIA | 25+ rec yds | 76.0¢ | off-ladder | — | Kalshi only |
| Brock BowersLV v MIA | 40+ rec yds | 68.5¢ | off-ladder | — | over · Kalshi 71.5¢ |
| Brock BowersLV v MIA | 50+ rec yds | 62.0¢ | off-ladder | — | Kalshi only |
| Brock BowersLV v MIA | 70+ rec yds | 39.5¢ | off-ladder | — | Kalshi only |
| Brock BowersLV v MIA | 80+ rec yds | 30.5¢ | off-ladder | — | over · Novig 38¢under · Novig 69¢ |
| Brock BowersLV v MIA | 100+ rec yds | 21.0¢ | off-ladder | — | over · Novig 23¢under · Kalshi 84¢ |
| Brock BowersLV v MIA | 3+ rec | 66.5¢ | off-ladder | — | Kalshi only |
See all 13 priced prop strikes on the board →+ 96 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.
AFC West ladder
Projected wins across the division, leader in gold — and four internal reads a click away.
Broncos
9.1
+1.2
Chiefs
8.2
-0.6
Chargers
8.2
-0.6
Raiders
6.0
-6.0Model has the Raiders 4th in the AFC West. Division hub →
10,000-season simulation
How it works →Our own preseason board, played across the real 2026 schedule 10,000 times with the league's actual tiebreaker procedure. The projection above is the middle of this; these are the odds around it. The sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games) — a separate fit from the +2.5 the game model uses on matchup pages.
Sim average wins
6.0
10,000 seasons · 11% reach 10+
Make playoffs
16%
60% win 6 or fewer
Win division
8%
1% take the 1 seed
Win Super Bowl
0.3%
32nd of 32 · 1% reach it
The Raiders draw a 0.501 opponent win rate — the 14th-hardest schedule in the league.
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings. Real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule. No injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices.
Madden 27 outlook
Full board →A second opinion, built from Madden 27 launch ratings alone and played across the real 2026 schedule 10,000 times. It knows nothing about our own model — which is what makes the disagreement worth reading.
Madden rank
22
80.1 composite · QB 74
Simulated wins
7.8
28% reach 10+
Playoffs
35%
16% win division
Super Bowl
1.6%
SoS 0.494 (21st hardest)
Madden is far higher on the Raiders than our model is — 22nd on talent versus 32nd on play-by-play, a 10-place gap. EA sees a roster our model hasn't seen produce yet.
Madden-only inputs — no injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices. Average error on a season win total is 2.27 wins, so the distribution is the product, not the mean. The 10,000-season simulation →
Raiders 2026 — frequently asked
What is the Las Vegas Raiders win total for 2026?
Our 10,000-season simulation on our DAEPA power ratings projects 6.0 wins for the Raiders in 2026 across all 17 regular-season games. Kalshi's KXNFLWINS-27 season win-total ladder for the Raiders is not fully open yet — when it lists, we compare the two and flag the edge.
Where do the Raiders rank in our 2026 power ratings?
The Raiders sit at a -6.0-point power rating — 32nd of 32 — in the Rebuild tier. That rating (offense -4.2, defense -2.0, special teams +0.2) is the input behind every Raiders prediction-market edge we publish.
Can you trade Las Vegas Raiders games on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists Raiders season win totals (KXNFLWINS), individual game winners (KXNFLGAME, which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff), plus division, conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position that settles at $1 or $0.
What division are the Raiders in for 2026?
The Raiders play in the AFC West, alongside Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers. Our model has them projected 4th in the AFC West on 6.0 expected wins.
Get Raiders edges + the daily NFL prediction-market read — free to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Every NFL team
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
More Raiders markets
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner, win probability and projected score for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale