Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, December 13, 2026 · M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Ravens by 4.5 in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Baltimore Ravens, NFL Week 14 2026 — 62% to win, and a 7-day rest edge for the Ravens, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13TBBAL yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Ravens at 57c or below (or Buccaneers at 33c or below) is where the model would take a position.
TB
-0.5
BAL
+1.3
Buccaneers
38%
model win prob
Ravens
62%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC13TBBALhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Ravens at 57c or below, or the Buccaneers at 33c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Rest first, ratings second: Buccaneers at Ravens
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Ravens come in with 7 more days off than the other side — 14 days' rest for the Ravens against 7 days' rest for the Buccaneers. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Ravens by 4.5 (62%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 7-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Buccaneers come in off the Chargers, the Ravens off the Texans. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Ravens offense grades +1.2 (11th of 32) against a Buccaneers defense at -1.1 (20th) — 2.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Buccaneers offense (+0.5, 18th) meets the Ravens defense (-0.3, 12th), a 0.8-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.3 projected wins for the Ravens against 8.3 for the Buccaneers, favored in 10 and 7 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 12th-hardest on the Ravens' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Buccaneers'.
One team has owned this series: the Ravens are 6-1 in 7 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Ravens won 41-31 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Ravens are 4-0. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 62% on the Ravens here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13TBBAL, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Ravens 62%, Buccaneers 38%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Ravens contracts a buy at 57c or below and Buccaneers contracts a buy at 33c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Buccaneers vs Ravens — frequently asked
Who is favored in Buccaneers vs Ravens in Week 14?
Our power-rating model favors the Ravens by 4.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Buccaneers. The Ravens rate 12th of 32 (+1.3) and the Buccaneers 18th (-0.5); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13TBBAL yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Ravens have 7 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 4.5-point line or the 62% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Buccaneers vs Ravens?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC13TBBAL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Ravens at 57c or below, or the Buccaneers at 33c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Ravens host the Buccaneers?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, December 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 14, at M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD.
What does the model project for the Ravens and Buccaneers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Ravens at 9.3 wins (favored in 10) and the Buccaneers at 8.3 (favored in 7). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Ravens' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Buccaneers', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 62% on a team like the Ravens?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Ravens at 62% over the Buccaneers sit in that band, off a 4.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.