Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, December 20, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Lions by 2.5 in Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings, NFL Week 15 2026 — 57% to win, and the second NFC North meeting of the year. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC20DETMIN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Vikings at 38c or below (or Lions at 52c or below) is where the model would take a position.
DET
+2.5
MIN
-2.6
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Lions
57%
model win prob
Vikings
43%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
59%
Madden 27
41%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26DEC20DETMIN hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Vikings at 38c or below, or the Lions at 52c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Lions at Vikings
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Vikings −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Vikings −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Vikings −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Vikings −4.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 more rungsVikings −6.5 → Vikings −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
The rematch: what the model sees the second time around
This is the second meeting. The Lions and Vikings already played in Week 8, and now the Lions make the return trip in Week 15. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: -2.6 against +2.5, plus home field, equals the Lions by 2.5 (57%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings — a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Lions grade +0.7 on that side of the ball (6th of 32) against a Vikings offense at -2.5 (28th) — 3.2 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Lions offense (+1.3, 10th) meets the Vikings defense (-0.5, 15th), a 1.8-point gap.
On the standings side, NFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 8, so a season sweep is on the table here on the NFC North race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Vikings at 7.2 wins (favored in 4 of 17) and the Lions at 9.8 (favored in 13) — 2.7 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 10th-hardest game on the Vikings' schedule and the 8th-hardest on the Lions'.
One team has owned this series: the Vikings are 32-16 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2025: Vikings won 23-10 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Vikings are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Lions at 57% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC20DETMIN is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 43% / 57% — the tradable window is narrow: Vikings at 38c or below, Lions at 52c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the NFC North hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Lions vs Vikings on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26DEC20DETMIN
- Market-implied (Vikings)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Vikings)
- 43%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC20DETMIN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Vikings at 38c or below, or the Lions at 52c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Lions vs Vikings trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Vikings | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Lions vs Vikings — frequently asked
Who is favored in Lions vs Vikings in Week 15?
Our power-rating model picks the Lions by 2.5 points, a 57% win probability over the Vikings, for a projected score of Lions 23, Vikings 20 on a ratings-implied 42.5-point total. The Vikings rate 27th of 32 (-2.6) and the Lions 7th (+2.5); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC20DETMIN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a NFC North result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC North teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 8. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Lions by 2.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Lions vs Vikings?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC20DETMIN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Vikings at 38c or below, or the Lions at 52c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Vikings host the Lions?
Detroit Lions visit the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, December 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 15, at U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN.
What does the model project for the Vikings and Lions this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Vikings at 7.2 wins (favored in 4) and the Lions at 9.8 (favored in 13). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Vikings' schedule and 8th-hardest on the Lions', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Lions vs Vikings?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC20DETMIN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Vikings at 38c or below or the Lions at 52c or below, off a 2.5-point line.
Can you trade Lions vs Vikings on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 15 game market is KXNFLGAME-26DEC20DETMIN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 57% on a team like the Lions?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Lions at 57% over the Vikings sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 8. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Lions–Vikings, Week 8 →
More Week 15 matchups
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The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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