Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, December 20, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN

Lions

49%

model win prob

Vikings

51%

model win prob

Model line

Vikings −0.5

Kalshi (Vikings)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Vikings — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Detroit Lions+0.910thAverage

Minnesota Vikings-1.326thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 15, the Detroit Lions travel to face the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Vikings 26th of 32 (Average tier, -1.3) and the Lions 10th (Average tier, +0.9). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Vikings by 0.5 — a 51% win probability for the Vikings.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 51% (Vikings) / 49% (Lions) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

This is a NFC North divisional game — both teams meet twice in 2026, and division results carry the tiebreakers that decide the NFC North race. Track the full division on the NFC North hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Lions vs Vikings — frequently asked

Who is favored in Lions vs Vikings in Week 15?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Vikings by 0.5 points and gives them a 51% win probability over the Lions. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Lions vs Vikings?

Home win probability 51% (Vikings), away 49% (Lions). That comes from a power-rating differential of -2.2 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Vikings rate 26th of 32 (Average tier), the Lions 10th (Average tier).

Can you trade Lions vs Vikings on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.