San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, November 15, 2026 · AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Cowboys by 3.5 in San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys, NFL Week 10 2026 — 61% to win, and Cowboys 11th of 32, 49ers 14th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SFDAL yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Cowboys at 56c or below (or 49ers at 34c or below) is where the model would take a position.
SF
+1.0
DAL
+1.4
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49ers
39%
model win prob
Cowboys
61%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
50%
Madden 27
50%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SFDAL hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Cowboys at 56c or below, or the 49ers at 34c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — 49ers at Cowboys
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Cowboys −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Cowboys −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Cowboys −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Cowboys −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Cowboys −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Cowboys −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Cowboys −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Cowboys −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Cowboys −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Cowboys −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
What the model sees in 49ers at Cowboys
The 49ers travel to face the Cowboys in Week 10. Our power ratings put the Cowboys 11th of 32 at +1.4 (Playoff tier) and the 49ers 14th at +1.0 (Playoff tier) — a 0.4-point gap that home field widens to a 3.5-point line on the Cowboys, 61% to win. It rates as the 14th-widest of the 14 games in Week 10.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Cowboys offense grades +4.1 (3rd of 32) against a 49ers defense at -3.0 (31st) — 7.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the 49ers offense (+3.1, 6th) meets the Cowboys defense (-3.5, 32nd), a 6.6-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.8 projected wins for the Cowboys against 8.9 for the 49ers, favored in 11 and 8 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 12th-hardest on the Cowboys' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the 49ers'.
Recent history, for context only: 10 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-4 in the Cowboys' favour, plus 9 playoff games. They last met in 2024: 49ers won 30-24 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Cowboys are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 61% on the Cowboys here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SFDAL, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Cowboys 61%, 49ers 39%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Cowboys contracts a buy at 56c or below and 49ers contracts a buy at 34c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
49ers vs Cowboys on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SFDAL
- Market-implied (Cowboys)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Cowboys)
- 61%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SFDAL yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Cowboys at 56c or below, or the 49ers at 34c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where 49ers vs Cowboys trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Cowboys | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
49ers vs Cowboys — frequently asked
Who is favored in 49ers vs Cowboys in Week 10?
Our power-rating model picks the Cowboys by 3.5 points, a 61% win probability over the 49ers, for a projected score of Cowboys 29, 49ers 26 on a ratings-implied 55.0-point total. The Cowboys rate 11th of 32 (+1.4) and the 49ers 14th (+1.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SFDAL yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in 49ers vs Cowboys?
Cowboys offense (+4.1, 3rd of 32) against 49ers defense (-3.0, 31st) — 7.1 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on 49ers vs Cowboys?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SFDAL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Cowboys at 56c or below, or the 49ers at 34c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Cowboys host the 49ers?
San Francisco 49ers visit the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, November 15, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 10, at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX.
What does the model project for the Cowboys and 49ers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Cowboys at 8.8 wins (favored in 11) and the 49ers at 8.9 (favored in 8). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Cowboys' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the 49ers', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for 49ers vs Cowboys?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SFDAL yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Cowboys at 56c or below or the 49ers at 34c or below, off a 3.5-point line.
Can you trade 49ers vs Cowboys on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 10 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SFDAL. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 61% on a team like the Cowboys?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Cowboys at 61% over the 49ers sit in that band, off a 3.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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