San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, November 15, 2026 · AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Cowboys by 3 in San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys, NFL Week 10 2026 — 59% to win, and Cowboys 11th of 32, 49ers 14th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SFDAL yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Cowboys at 54c or below (or 49ers at 36c or below) is where the model would take a position.
SF
+0.8
DAL
+1.5
49ers
41%
model win prob
Cowboys
59%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SFDALhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Cowboys at 54c or below, or the 49ers at 36c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
What the model sees in 49ers at Cowboys
The 49ers travel to face the Cowboys in Week 10. Our power ratings put the Cowboys 11th of 32 at +1.5 (Average tier) and the 49ers 14th at +0.8 (Average tier) — a 0.7-point gap that home field widens to a 3-point line on the Cowboys, 59% to win. It rates as the 8th-widest of the 14 games in Week 10.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Cowboys offense grades +3.9 (3rd of 32) against a 49ers defense at -2.9 (31st) — 6.9 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the 49ers offense (+2.9, 6th) meets the Cowboys defense (-3.2, 32nd), a 6.1-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.8 projected wins for the Cowboys against 8.8 for the 49ers, favored in 11 and 8 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 12th-hardest on the Cowboys' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the 49ers'.
Recent history, for context only: 10 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-4 in the Cowboys' favour, plus 9 playoff games. They last met in 2024: 49ers won 30-24 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Cowboys are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Cowboys at 59% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SFDAL, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Cowboys 59%, 49ers 41%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Cowboys contracts a buy at 54c or below and 49ers contracts a buy at 36c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
49ers vs Cowboys — frequently asked
Who is favored in 49ers vs Cowboys in Week 10?
Our power-rating model favors the Cowboys by 3 points, a 59% win probability over the 49ers. The Cowboys rate 11th of 32 (+1.5) and the 49ers 14th (+0.8); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SFDAL yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in 49ers vs Cowboys?
Cowboys offense (+3.9, 3rd of 32) against 49ers defense (-2.9, 31st) — 6.9 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on 49ers vs Cowboys?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SFDAL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Cowboys at 54c or below, or the 49ers at 36c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Cowboys host the 49ers?
San Francisco 49ers visit the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, November 15, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 10, at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX.
What does the model project for the Cowboys and 49ers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Cowboys at 8.8 wins (favored in 11) and the 49ers at 8.8 (favored in 8). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Cowboys' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the 49ers', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 59% on a team like the Cowboys?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Cowboys at 59% over the 49ers sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.