49ers vs Cowboys Prediction β Week 10, Sun Nov 15
Updated Β· model ratings
Sunday, November 15, 2026 Β· AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
- Last week: 49ers play Sun 4:05 PM ET vs Raiders β preview
- Last week: Cowboys play Sun 1:00 PM ET at Colts β preview
Quick Answer
As of October 28, 2026, PredictionMarketsPicks' model favors the 49ers by 1 in San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys, NFL Week 10 2026 β 52% to win, and effectively a toss-up β the teams are 3.3 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SFDAL yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Cowboys at 43c or below (or 49ers at 47c or below) is where the model would take a position.
SF
+2.7
DAL
-0.6
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49ers
52%
our model
Cowboys
48%
our model
Run this matchup yourself β Full PWR board for all 32 β Player prop gaps for this game β Whose number this is β
50%
Madden 27
50%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SFDAL hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Cowboys at 43c or below, or the 49ers at 47c or below β a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record β
The Ladder β 49ers at Cowboys How to read the Ladder β
All ladders βOur margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30β70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0β100Β’
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) Β· hollow = outside the 30β70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; βpaysβ is 100Β’ Γ· cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright β a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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49ers vs Cowboys power ratings (Week 10) What PWR measures β
49ers and Cowboys season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings β real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works β
49ers vs Cowboys β player pages
All players βOne page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
49ersβCowboys is a coin flip on our numbers
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Cowboys rate -0.6 (19th of 32), the 49ers +2.7 (6th) β 3.3 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 48%/52%, and this rates as the 2nd-closest game of the 14 in Week 10. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Cowboys at 8.0 wins (favored in 6 of 17) and the 49ers at 11.9 (favored in 14) β 3.9 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 11th-hardest game on the Cowboys' schedule and the 5th-hardest on the 49ers'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the 49ers offense grades +3.8 (2nd of 32) against a Cowboys defense at -4.6 (32nd) β 8.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cowboys offense (+3.5, 3rd) meets the 49ers defense (-1.7, 21st), a 5.3-point gap.
Recent history, for context only: 10 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-4 in the Cowboys' favour, plus 9 playoff games. They last met in 2024: 49ers won 30-24 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Cowboys are 2-2. It is not an input to the line β rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The 49ers at 52% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SFDAL is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here β 48% / 52% β the tradable window is narrow: Cowboys at 43c or below, 49ers at 47c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks β you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
49ers vs Cowboys on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SFDAL
- Market-implied (Cowboys)
- not listed yet
- Our ratings line (Cowboys)
- 48%
- Model vs market
- β
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SFDAL yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Cowboys at 43c or below, or the 49ers at 47c or below β a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
49ers vs Cowboys line history
The earliest line we archived, on Sep 10, had the Cowboys β1.5 (DraftKings). The median across 2 books now is the Cowboys β1.
| Book | Earliest line we archived | Now | Spread trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Cowboys β1.5 Β· O/U 52.5Sep 10 | Cowboys β1.5 Β· O/U 52.5 | |
| Caesars | Cowboys β1 Β· O/U 53.5Sep 10 | Cowboys β1 Β· O/U 53.5 |
Posted spreads and totals as our odds feed recorded them; a row is added only when a book moves its line. βEarliest line we archivedβ is our first capture, which is not necessarily the marketβs open. Spreads are stated for the favorite. The Kalshi price is that exchangeβs own moneyline contract.
Where 49ers vs Cowboys trades Why the venues differ β
Each venueβs own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Cowboys | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet β opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi β |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig β $50 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer β |
| Polymarket.com (international) | no captured price for this game β international book | Informational |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game β US exchange | Sign-up offer β |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood β |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase β |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available β sign-up offer β | Sign-up offer β |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available β sign-up offer β | Sign-up offer β |
A price under a venue name is that venueβs own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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Watch the breakdown: 49ers vs Cowboys
49ers vs Cowboys β frequently asked
Who will win Cowboys vs 49ers?
Our model has the 49ers at 52% to beat the Cowboys in Week 10.
Who is favored in 49ers vs Cowboys in Week 10?
Our power-rating model picks the 49ers by 1 points, a 52% win probability over the Cowboys. The Cowboys rate 19th of 32 (-0.6) and the 49ers 6th (+2.7); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SFDAL yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Cowboys (-0.6, 19th) and 49ers (+2.7, 6th) are only 3.3 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 48%/52%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input β the contract price is.
How do you take a position on 49ers vs Cowboys?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SFDAL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Cowboys at 43c or below, or the 49ers at 47c or below. There is no point spread β you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Cowboys host the 49ers?
San Francisco 49ers visit the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, November 15, 2026 β a Sunday game in NFL Week 10, at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX.
What does the model project for the Cowboys and 49ers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Cowboys at 8.0 wins (favored in 6) and the 49ers at 11.9 (favored in 14). This game ranks 11th-hardest on the Cowboys' schedule and 5th-hardest on the 49ers', by win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for 49ers vs Cowboys?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SFDAL yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game β anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Cowboys at 43c or below or the 49ers at 47c or below, off a 1-point line.
Can you trade 49ers vs Cowboys on Kalshi?
Yes β as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, and the Week 10 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SFDAL. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 52% on a team like the 49ers?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 β trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input β the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The 49ers at 52% over the Cowboys sit in that band, off a 1-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game β result, hit or miss, closing-line value β so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
What happens on Kalshi if 49ers vs Cowboys ends in a tie?
Your position is not voided. On a team contract with no Tie strike listed, Yes and No holders are each paid 50c a contract, and overtime counts toward the result. A player prop on someone who never plays settles at the last fair price rather than refunding, and a game postponed more than 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Every rule is at predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi/settlement-rules.
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The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server β every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools βPrediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only β not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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