San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, November 15, 2026 · AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
49ers
43%
model win prob
Cowboys
57%
model win prob
Model line
Cowboys −2.5
Kalshi (Cowboys)
—
Edge
pending
Model favors the Cowboys — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff
KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.
Power-rating comparison
The prediction-market read
In Week 10, the San Francisco 49ers travel to face the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Cowboys 11th of 32 (Average tier, +0.9) and the 49ers 9th (Playoff tier, +1.0). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Cowboys by 2.5 — a 57% win probability for the Cowboys.
Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 57% (Cowboys) / 43% (49ers) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
49ers vs Cowboys — frequently asked
Who is favored in 49ers vs Cowboys in Week 10?
Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Cowboys by 2.5 points and gives them a 57% win probability over the 49ers. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.
What does the model project for 49ers vs Cowboys?
Home win probability 57% (Cowboys), away 43% (49ers). That comes from a power-rating differential of -0.1 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Cowboys rate 11th of 32 (Average tier), the 49ers 9th (Playoff tier).
Can you trade 49ers vs Cowboys on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.
When and where do the Cowboys host the 49ers?
San Francisco 49ers visit the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, November 15, 2026 in NFL Week 10, at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX.
Get the daily NFL prediction-market read — free to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Week 10 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.