Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets
Sunday, January 3, 2027 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Jets by 1 in Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets, NFL Week 17 2026 — 53% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 1.4 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03MINNYJ yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Jets at 48c or below (or Vikings at 42c or below) is where the model would take a position.
MIN
-2.6
NYJ
-4.0
Vikings
47%
model win prob
Jets
53%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-27JAN03MINNYJhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Jets at 48c or below, or the Vikings at 42c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Vikings–Jets is a coin flip on our numbers
The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Vikings rate -2.6 (27th of 32) against -4.0 for the Jets (31st) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 1.4-point gap between them, so the model lands at 53% for the Jets anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 5th-closest of the 16 games in Week 17, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 6.5 projected wins for the Jets against 7.1 for the Vikings, favored in 4 and 4 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 15th-hardest on the Jets' schedule and 12th-hardest on the Vikings'.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Vikings grade -0.5 on that side of the ball (16th of 32) against a Jets offense at -3.1 (30th) — 2.6 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Vikings offense (-2.5, 29th) meets the Jets defense (-2.2, 27th), a 0.3-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jets grade +1.3, 1st in the league, against +0.4 (16th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Recent history, for context only: 7 regular-season meetings since 2002, 4-3 in the Vikings' favour. They last met in 2024: Vikings won 23-17 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Jets are 0-4. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Jets at 53% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-27JAN03MINNYJ is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 53% / 47% — the tradable window is narrow: Jets at 48c or below, Vikings at 42c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Vikings vs Jets — frequently asked
Who is favored in Vikings vs Jets in Week 17?
Our power-rating model favors the Jets by 1 points, a 53% win probability over the Vikings. The Jets rate 31st of 32 (-4.0) and the Vikings 27th (-2.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03MINNYJ yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Jets (-4.0, 31st) and Vikings (-2.6, 27th) are only 1.4 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 53%/47%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Vikings vs Jets?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-27JAN03MINNYJ on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jets at 48c or below, or the Vikings at 42c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Jets host the Vikings?
Minnesota Vikings visit the New York Jets on Sunday, January 3, 2027 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 17, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.
What does the model project for the Jets and Vikings this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Jets at 6.5 wins (favored in 4) and the Vikings at 7.1 (favored in 4). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Jets' schedule and 12th-hardest on the Vikings', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 53% on a team like the Jets?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Jets at 53% over the Vikings sit in that band, off a 1-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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