San Francisco 49ers: 2026 Win Total & Market Edge
Board as of · prices live
The prediction-market read on the 49ers: our 10,000-season simulation projects 12.7 wins in 2026 (1st of 32, Playoff tier; model 12.5), beside the live Kalshi win-total line. Full schedule, per-game win probabilities and NFC West standing below.
This week on the boardNFL Week 7 predictions →NFL Week 8 predictions — early lines →Week 6 results →
Week 7 gamesPatriots at BearsSteelers at Saints49ers at FalconsBengals at RavensBuccaneers at PanthersGiants at TexansColts at VikingsDolphins at JetsBrowns at TitansBroncos at CardinalsPackers at LionsRams at RaidersChiefs at SeahawksCowboys at Eagles
Entering Week 7: experts 1 · market-implied 2 · PMP 4. Experts vs. market on the 49ers →
2026 win total: our model vs. Kalshi
San Francisco 49ers
± 1.6 · 1st of 32
Model agrees with the market
Divergence is projected wins minus the ladder-implied market line, in wins — LOW on the one ladder every season-wins surface grades on (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); OVER / UNDER fires at ±2.0. Projected wins are the 10,000-season simulation mean; the model — wins already banked plus the rest of the season — reads 12.5. No single rung sits near 50¢.
See all 32 teams on the win-totals board → Informational only — verify the market and trade responsibly.
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The consensus spread
Three independent estimates of the same season on one line: the expected wins implied by the live Kalshi ladder, our 10,000-season simulation, and EA’s Madden 27 simulation. Where they disagree is the whole signal.
Both independent models sit on the same side of the market line — our sim at 12.68 and the Madden simulation at 10.50 against 13.05 implied wins. That is the cleanest version of this signal.
Madden and our model broadly agree on the 49ers — 2nd on talent against 4th on play-by-play.
Where the season actually lands
A point estimate cannot tell a trader whether to take a position — the full distribution against the contract line can. Bars are the Madden 27 simulation over 10,000 seasons; the dashed marker is the live contract.
of clearing 13.05
-12.9pp vs a coin flip
Our probability from the 10,000-season simulation (mean 12.68 wins; model, banked wins plus the rest of the season, 12.53 ± 1.62). Bars: Madden 27 sim-2026, 10,000 iterations. Two methods, no shared inputs.
The Ladder — 49ers
All ladders →The season simulation at every Kalshi win-total rung, then the widest player-prop gap on this club this week. The rungs the market has not listed two-sided yet are drawn from the simulation alone.
Kalshi prices 14+ wins at 45¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 17+wins—outside band
- 16+wins—outside band
- 15+wins—outside band
- 14+wins——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 13–14
- 13+wins——
- 12+wins—outside band
- 11+wins—outside band
- 10+wins—outside band
- 9+winsthin—outside band
- 8+winsthin—outside band
- 7+winsthin—outside band
- 6+winsthin—outside band
- 5+winsthin—outside band
- 4+winsthin—outside band
- 3+winsthin—outside band
- 2+winsthin—outside band
- 1+winsthin—outside band
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 2+ rec at 48¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 3+rec——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 1–2
- 2+rec45¢—
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 2+ rec Kalshi's YES costs 49¢, the books imply 45¢ — 3.1 points above the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 6+ rec at 50¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 10+rec——
- 9+rec——
- 8+rec——
- 7+rec——
- 6+rec49¢—
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 5–6
- 5+rec62¢—
- 4+rec——
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 5+ rec Kalshi's YES costs 65¢, the books imply 62¢ — 2.4 points above the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Market edges
The season contract and the single game most likely to move it, graded on the same thresholds every other Gridiron Edge surface uses.
Season wins under 13.05
Our 10,000-season simulation projects 12.68 (model 12.53), the Madden 27 simulation 10.50, against 13.05 market-implied wins — a -0.37-win gap. LOW on the wins ladder (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); a side is flagged only at the 2.0-win STRONG rung, so the honest read is no position.
Week 16 at Chiefs
The truest coin flip on the schedule at 49%. Games this close are where a season win total is actually decided — and where a live in-week contract is most likely to be mispriced. Full read →
Informational only. Contracts can settle at $0 — verify the market and trade responsibly.
Power rating breakdown
Diverging from league average rather than four flat numbers, so a positive reads as a positive at a glance. Points per game.
Overall +3.2 ranks 4th of 32 (Playoff tier). How 49ers rank on the points scale → Re-weight the model yourself →
Methodology: DAEPA model docs → (59.6% backtested straight-up accuracy across 3,266 games, no market line used).
The season path
Seventeen weeks as a heat ribbon — the shape of the season in one glance, each cell linking to that game’s full read. The sortable table stays below it.
Roster shape vs the league
Nine position groups against league average. Each axis is scaled on its own league range — a shared 0-100 scale flattens every roster into the same circle.
Dashed violet ring = league average. Number chip = rank of 32. Source: Madden 27 launch team composites (derived unit aggregates, no per-player data).
2026 schedule & model win probabilities
All 17 regular-season games. Played games show the final; the rest show Our %, the DAEPA margin (power-rating differential + 2.5-point home-field) run through a Normal model, σ=14.4 — those numbers plus the 6-0 already banked sum to the model's 12.5 wins; the 12.7-win headline above is the 10,000-season simulation, which adds rating uncertainty (and fits its own home-field, 2.0) on top of these same ratings. Madden % is the same question asked of Madden 27 talent composites, a model that shares none of our inputs.
49ers player props vs the Kalshi line
Our projection against the live Kalshi contract. Every prop is an “X or more” contract that pays $1 if the player gets there, so the price of the side we call, in cents,is the market’s implied probability — the edge is the gap between that and ours, in percentage points. Closest strike to our projection first.
| Player | Contract | Call | Our odds | Mkt | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 2+ receptionsover 1.5 | YES | 53% | 45¢ | MODERATE |
49ers props: where the market prices are
The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — our Oracle calls are the opinion.
No Kalshi strike in this slice is 5¢+ off the sportsbooks right now — the market agrees with itself.
| Player | Prop | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan WatkinsSF v ATL | 2+ rec | 48.0¢ | 44.9%4bk | +3.1¢ | over · DK 47.6¢under · Kalshi 54.7¢ |
| Jordan WatkinsSF v ATL | 20+ rec yds | 49.0¢ | 51.5%2bk | -2.5¢ | over · BetRivers 53.1¢under · Novig 49¢ |
| Brock PurdySF v ATL | 20+ rush yds | 51.5¢ | 50.5%5bk | +1.0¢ | over · Novig 51.9¢under · Kalshi 50.8¢ |
| Christian McCaffreySF v ATL | 6+ rec | 49.5¢ | 48.5%6bk | +1.0¢ | over · Novig 50¢under · ProphetX 51.9¢ |
| George KittleSF v ATL | 70+ rec yds | 52.0¢ | 51.3%5bk | +0.7¢ | over · Novig 52.6¢under · Novig 50¢ |
| George KittleSF v ATL | 6+ rec | 51.5¢ | 50.9%6bk | +0.6¢ | over · Novig 52.6¢under · ProphetX 50¢ |
| Kyle JuszczykRBSF v ATL | 2+ rec | 45.5¢ | 44.9%5bk | +0.6¢ | over · BetRivers 46.7¢under · Novig 53.1¢ |
| Kaelon BlackSF v ATL | 30+ rush yds | 47.5¢ | 47.8%4bk | -0.3¢ | over · Novig 47.4¢under · BetRivers 53.1¢ |
See all 88 priced prop strikes on the board →+ 76 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.
49ers player pages
All players →Kyle Juszczyk
RB — Receptions
Christian McCaffrey
RB
Mike Evans
WR
Brock Purdy
QB
George Kittle
TE
Deebo Samuel Sr.
WR
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
Jordan Watkins
Kaelon Black
Brandin Cooks
Luke Farrell
Jacob Cowing
SF 49ers D/ST
Adrian Martinez
Brayden Willis
Christian Kirk
Colton Dowell
Demarcus Robinson
Glen Coffee
Hayden Rucci
Isaac Guerendo
Jake Tonges
Jordan James
Junior Bergen
Kurtis Rourke
Mac Jones
Malik Turner
Patrick Taylor
Ricky Pearsall
Sincere McCormick
One page per player: every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
NFC West ladder
Projected wins across the division, leader in gold — and four internal reads a click away.
49ers
12.7
+3.2
Seahawks
9.7
+3.7
Rams
8.1
+1.9
Cardinals
6.5
-3.9
Model has the 49ers 1st in the NFC West. Division hub →
Division odds: 49ers 80¢ to win the NFC West on Kalshi.
10,000-season simulation
How it works →Our current board, with the 94 games already played locked in and the remaining schedule played out 10,000 times with the league's actual tiebreaker procedure. The projection above is the middle of this; these are the odds around it. The sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games) — a separate fit from the +2.5 the game model uses on matchup pages.
Sim average wins
12.7
10,000 seasons · 93% reach 10+
Make playoffs
94%
0% win 6 or fewer
Win division
79%
29% take the 1 seed
Win Super Bowl
9.9%
1st of 32 · 19% reach it
The 49ers draw a 0.462 opponent win rate — the 32nd-hardest schedule in the league.
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings. Real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule. No injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices.
Madden 27 outlook
Full board →A second opinion, built from Madden 27 launch ratings alone and played across the real 2026 schedule 10,000 times. It knows nothing about our own model — which is what makes the disagreement worth reading.
Madden rank
2
84.6 composite · QB 85
Simulated wins
10.5
65% reach 10+
Playoffs
67%
41% win division
Super Bowl
7.8%
SoS 0.495 (20th hardest)
Madden and our model broadly agree on the 49ers — 2nd on talent against 4th on play-by-play.
Madden-only inputs — no injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices. Average error on a season win total is 2.27 wins, so the distribution is the product, not the mean. The 10,000-season simulation →
49ers 2026 — frequently asked
What is the San Francisco 49ers win total for 2026?
The Kalshi KXNFLWINS-27 ladder implies an expected 13.1 wins for the 49ers in 2026. Our 10,000-season simulation on our DAEPA power ratings projects 12.7 wins — a 0.4-win agreement with the market (LOW on our wins ladder).
Where do the 49ers rank in our 2026 power ratings?
The 49ers sit at a +3.2-point power rating — 4th of 32 — in the Playoff tier. That rating (offense +3.9, defense -1.3, special teams +0.6) is the input behind every 49ers prediction-market edge we publish.
Can you trade San Francisco 49ers games on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists 49ers season win totals (KXNFLWINS), individual game winners (KXNFLGAME, which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff), plus division, conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position that settles at $1 or $0.
What division are the 49ers in for 2026?
The 49ers play in the NFC West, alongside Cardinals, Rams, Seahawks. Our model has them projected 1st in the NFC West on 12.7 expected wins.
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Every NFL team
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
More 49ers markets
- NFL Week 7 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 8 predictions — early lines — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 6 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
- Will Derrick Henry score a TD? Live Kalshi odds → — Henry anytime TD, 2+ TDs and rushing-yard prices for every Ravens game, plus his TD record vs the market
- Markets 101: be the market maker, not the market taker → — Why the first-TD board prices out to ~118%, and how a resting bid a cent under the ask beats paying it
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
This team in the first-quarter report
Record, point differential, the market price then and now, our simulation and the next three games, on one card. Read the report →