San Francisco 49ers: 2026 Win Total & Market Edge
The prediction-market read on the 49ers: our DAEPA model projects 8.8 wins in 2026 (14th of 32, Average tier), beside the live Kalshi win-total line. Full schedule, per-game win probabilities and NFC West standing below.
2026 win total: our model vs. Kalshi
Model projection
8.8
±2.0 wins
Kalshi market
9.8
KXNFLWINS-27SF
Edge
-0.5
wins
Model agrees with the market
Edge (raw model−market) flagged at ±2.50 wins this week. No single rung sits near 50¢.
See all 32 teams on the win-totals board → Informational only — verify the market and trade responsibly.
Power rating breakdown
Overall
+0.8
14th · Average
Offense
+2.9
points/gm
Defense
-2.9
points/gm
Special teams
+0.9
points/gm
Methodology: DAEPA model docs → (66.2% backtested game accuracy across 6,218 games).
2026 schedule & model win probabilities
All 17 regular-season games. Win probability is the DAEPA margin (power-rating differential + 2.5-point home-field) run through a Normal model, σ=13.5. The sum of these 17 numbers is the 8.8-win projection above.
NFC West projected standing
Division hub →49ers 2026 — frequently asked
What is the San Francisco 49ers win total for 2026?
The Kalshi KXNFLWINS-27 ladder implies an expected 9.8 wins for the 49ers in 2026. Our DAEPA power-rating model projects 8.8 wins — a 0.5-win agreement with the market.
Where do the 49ers rank in our 2026 power ratings?
The 49ers sit at a +0.8-point power rating — 14th of 32 — in the Average tier. That rating (offense +2.9, defense -2.9, special teams +0.9) is the input behind every 49ers prediction-market edge we publish.
Can you trade San Francisco 49ers games on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists 49ers season win totals (KXNFLWINS), individual game winners (KXNFLGAME, which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff), plus division, conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position that settles at $1 or $0.
What division are the 49ers in for 2026?
The 49ers play in the NFC West, alongside Cardinals, Rams, Seahawks. Our model has them projected 3rd in the NFC West on 8.8 expected wins.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.