New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Quick Answer
As of September 15, 2026, Kalshi implies 80% for the Ravens in New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens, NFL Week 2 2026, while our market-anchored fair value has the Ravens by 5.5 (77% to win) — a 2.1pp gap. Value side: the Saints. The model's own line is Ravens by 5.7 against a market line of Ravens by 8.5 — a 2.8-point lean toward the Saints, graded separately from any position.
Kickoff board
Week 2 · 2026-09-15No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
NO
-2.3
BAL
+1.2
Saints
23%
model win prob
Ravens
77%
model win prob
Market-anchored fair value: NO 23% (+2.2pp) Combo Edge Builder →
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
25%
Madden 27
75%
Madden 27
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The Ladder — Saints at Ravens
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
We think the median sits somewhere else than the market does.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9 more rungsRavens +14.5 → Ravens +3.5 · outside our published band, market only
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ravens +2.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ravens +1.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ravens −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ravens −1.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ravens −2.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ravens −3.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ravens −4.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ravens −5.5 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ravens −6.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ravens −7.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ravens −8.5 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ravens −9.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ravens −10.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ravens −13.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ravens −14.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
What the model sees in Saints at Ravens
The Saints travel to face the Ravens in Week 2. Our power ratings put the Ravens 13th of 32 at +1.2 (Playoff tier) and the Saints 25th at -2.3 (Below Avg tier) — a 3.5-point gap that home field widens to a 5.5-point line on the Ravens, 77% to win. It rates as the 16th-widest of the 16 games in Week 2.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Ravens offense grades +1.0 (12th of 32) against a Saints defense at -0.5 (13th) — 1.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Saints offense (-1.5, 27th) meets the Ravens defense (-0.3, 11th), a 1.2-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Ravens +0.4 (15th of 32) to -0.3 (32nd).
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Ravens at 9.2 wins (favored in 10 of 17) and the Saints at 7.8 (favored in 7) — 1.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Ravens' schedule and the 3rd-hardest on the Saints'.
One team has owned this series: the Ravens are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Ravens won 27-13 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Ravens are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 139 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 75-80% range won 74% of those. So a 77% Ravens number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 26 times in 100 — which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20NOBAL contract implies 80% for the Ravens against our 77% — a 2.1-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Saints as the value side at 22c.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Saints vs Ravens on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP20NOBAL
- Market-implied (Ravens)
- 80c · 80%
- Our model (Ravens)
- 77%
- Model vs market
- -2.1pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20NOBAL. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 80c on the Ravens is an implied 80% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 77%, a 2.1pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Saints vs Ravens trades
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Ravens | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 80% 80c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 78% 78c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 80% 80c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 80% 80c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Saints vs Ravens — frequently asked
Who is favored in Saints vs Ravens in Week 2?
Our power-rating model picks the Ravens by 5.5 points, a 77% win probability over the Saints, for a projected score of Ravens 25, Saints 19 on a ratings-implied 44.3-point total. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20NOBAL market implies 80% for the Ravens — a 2.1pp gap versus the model.
What is the biggest mismatch in Saints vs Ravens?
Ravens offense (+1.0, 12th of 32) against Saints defense (-0.5, 13th) — 1.5 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Ravens (+0.4, 15th).
How do you take a position on Saints vs Ravens?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20NOBAL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Ravens YES is quoted around 80c against our 77% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Ravens host the Saints?
New Orleans Saints visit the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD.
What does the model project for the Ravens and Saints this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Ravens at 9.2 wins (favored in 10) and the Saints at 7.8 (favored in 7). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Ravens' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Saints', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Saints vs Ravens?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP20NOBAL. The Ravens YES contract sits around 80c, which is an implied 80% — against our model's 77%. That is a 2.1pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Saints vs Ravens on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 2 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20NOBAL. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 77% on a team like the Ravens?
74% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 75-80% range 139 times, and those teams won 74% of them. The Ravens at 77% over the Saints sit in that band, off a 5.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Is Saints moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 23% against a market price implying 21%, an edge of +2.1 points. Model 23% vs market 20% on NO. We pass — no position.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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