New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Ravens by 6 in New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens, NFL Week 2 2026 — 68% to win, and Ravens 12th of 32, Saints 26th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP20NOBAL yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Ravens at 63c or below (or Saints at 27c or below) is where the model would take a position.
NO
-2.4
BAL
+1.3
Saints
32%
model win prob
Ravens
68%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26SEP20NOBALhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Ravens at 63c or below, or the Saints at 27c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
What the model sees in Saints at Ravens
The Saints travel to face the Ravens in Week 2. Our power ratings put the Ravens 12th of 32 at +1.3 (Average tier) and the Saints 26th at -2.4 (Average tier) — a 3.7-point gap that home field widens to a 6-point line on the Ravens, 68% to win. It rates as the 7th-widest of the 16 games in Week 2.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Ravens offense grades +1.2 (11th of 32) against a Saints defense at -0.5 (14th) — 1.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Saints offense (-1.6, 27th) meets the Ravens defense (-0.3, 12th), a 1.3-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Ravens +0.4 (15th of 32) to -0.3 (32nd).
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Ravens at 9.3 wins (favored in 10 of 17) and the Saints at 7.7 (favored in 7) — 1.6 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Ravens' schedule and the 3rd-hardest on the Saints'.
One team has owned this series: the Ravens are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Ravens won 27-13 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Ravens are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 68% on the Ravens here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP20NOBAL, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Ravens 68%, Saints 32%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Ravens contracts a buy at 63c or below and Saints contracts a buy at 27c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Saints vs Ravens — frequently asked
Who is favored in Saints vs Ravens in Week 2?
Our power-rating model favors the Ravens by 6 points, a 68% win probability over the Saints. The Ravens rate 12th of 32 (+1.3) and the Saints 26th (-2.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP20NOBAL yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Saints vs Ravens?
Ravens offense (+1.2, 11th of 32) against Saints defense (-0.5, 14th) — 1.7 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Ravens (+0.4, 15th).
How do you take a position on Saints vs Ravens?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP20NOBAL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Ravens at 63c or below, or the Saints at 27c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Ravens host the Saints?
New Orleans Saints visit the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD.
What does the model project for the Ravens and Saints this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Ravens at 9.3 wins (favored in 10) and the Saints at 7.7 (favored in 7). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Ravens' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Saints', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 68% on a team like the Ravens?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Ravens at 68% over the Saints sit in that band, off a 6-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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