New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, September 20, 2026 · M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD

Saints

43%

model win prob

Ravens

57%

model win prob

Model line

Ravens −2.5

Kalshi (Ravens)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Ravens — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

New Orleans Saints-0.921stAverage

Baltimore Ravens-1.123rdAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 2, the New Orleans Saints travel to face the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Ravens 23rd of 32 (Average tier, -1.1) and the Saints 21st (Average tier, -0.9). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Ravens by 2.5 — a 57% win probability for the Ravens.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 57% (Ravens) / 43% (Saints) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Saints vs Ravens — frequently asked

Who is favored in Saints vs Ravens in Week 2?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Ravens by 2.5 points and gives them a 57% win probability over the Saints. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Saints vs Ravens?

Home win probability 57% (Ravens), away 43% (Saints). That comes from a power-rating differential of -0.2 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Ravens rate 23rd of 32 (Average tier), the Saints 21st (Average tier).

Can you trade Saints vs Ravens on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.