Updated · model ratings
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, September 20, 2026): New Orleans Saints 24, Baltimore Ravens 17 — NFL Week 2, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Ravens by 8.5 (77% to win); the Saints won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Ravens at 79c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
New Orleans Saints 24, Baltimore Ravens 17Final
Model call: MISSOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Ravens by 8.5 (77% to win). The Saints won — that call missed.
Closing-line value on the Ravens: -1c — we archived the Ravens at 80c on Sep 14; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 79c on Sep 20. The market moved against our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 3 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
Baltimore led 17-9 late in the third quarter and had the ball at the New Orleans 49 with a chance to make it two scores. It went backwards sixteen yards and punted, and the Saints scored fifteen unanswered: a 21-yard touchdown to Chris Olave with a two-point run, then a drive from their own 32 that converted two third downs and two fourth downs and ended with Tyler Shough’s one-yard sneak with 1:28 left — ruled short on third down, ruled in on fourth, upheld. Lamar Jackson’s last throw was intercepted with thirteen seconds to play.
Saints 24—Ravens 17
Final✗ Call missedThe chip grades the stored probability, which had Baltimore at 77.4% — the market’s number, anchored at weight zero from an 8.5-point margin — and Baltimore lost, so it reads a miss. The model’s own read was also wrong and also less wrong than the market: Baltimore by 5.7, a 2.8-point lean toward New Orleans that did not clear the floor, so no position was published and no weekly-edges ledger row exists for 2026_02_NO_BAL. That is a model miss on a 77% favorite, and it should be read as one; the lean toward the Saints was the right direction and nobody traded it. Nothing outside the ledger was published on this game. The player board was one and four where it could be seen, all of it Mark Andrews: under 39.5 receiving yards at 59.5c lost on his 49, under 49.5 at 48.5c cleared on the same 49 by half a yard, and under 3.5, 4.5 and 5.5 receptions at 62c, 42.5c and 25c all lost on his six. Those five calls were one view — Andrews as a 34.7-yard, 3.3-catch afternoon — expressed five ways, and the view was wrong by about a catch and a half and fifteen yards. New Orleans carried no PLAY rows on the final board. Seven WATCH rows went five and two and are graded apart.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total fell 1 to 45.5; the game landed on 41.
Q1
Derrick Henry scored from the one with 2:52 left in the first quarter for a 7-0 Baltimore lead. He finished with 68 yards on sixteen carries and the touchdown. It was the only quarter Baltimore would win outright.
Q2
Daniel Carlson’s 23-yarder made it 7-3, Jackson found Rashod Bateman from 22 with 24 seconds left in the half for 14-3, and Carlson hit from 47 as time expired. Bateman would finish with seven catches for 88 on nine targets. New Orleans held the ball for 32:45 on the day and converted eight of fifteen third downs and both of its fourth downs.
Q3
Carlson hit from 51 for 9-14 and Tyler Loop from 49 for 17-9. Sacks by Trey Hendrickson and Mike Green forced a Saints three-and-out and gave Baltimore the ball at the New Orleans 49 late in the third with a chance to make it two scores. The Ravens went backwards sixteen yards and punted. On the next Baltimore possession Jackson threw deep on third-and-1 and Kool-Aid McKinstry broke it up; Jesse Minter said afterwards they had liked the play.
Q4
Shough hit Olave from 21 with 9:42 left and, after a Baltimore penalty moved the try to the one, Travis Etienne Jr. ran in the two-point conversion for 17-17. From their own 32 with 8:06 to play the Saints converted two third downs and two fourth downs; from the two, a penalty and an incompletion let Baltimore stop the clock, and Shough was ruled short on a third-down sneak and in on the fourth-down one with 1:28 left. Kellen Moore said they were always going for it. Julian Blackmon intercepted Jackson at the New Orleans 37 with thirteen seconds left.
Reporting verified 2026-09-20. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Tyler Shough and the Saints produce two big drives at the end to topple the Ravens 24-17 · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line
New Orleans arrives 0-1 after a 31-30 overtime loss at Detroit in which Tyler Shough threw for 410 yards but the defense was gashed on the ground; Baltimore opens at home 1-0 off a 41-23 win at Indianapolis built on 202 rushing yards. The Ravens enter Week 2 with left tackle Ronnie Stanley (toe), left guard John Simpson (groin), WR Zay Flowers (hamstring) and edge Trey Hendrickson (finger) all missing Wednesday and Thursday practice. The trench question runs in both directions, and every unit below is priced off personnel that is still unsettled two days before kickoff.
Ravens run offense · Saints run defense
Baltimore ran 37 times for 202 yards at Indianapolis, with Henry taking 24 carries for 144 yards and three scores and Lamar Jackson adding 40 on seven keepers. New Orleans allowed Detroit 33 attempts for 165 yards, with Jahmyr Gibbs alone accounting for 156 on 29 carries. PFF's Week 1 review of the Saints had every interior defensive lineman graded 37.1 or lower against the run with four combined missed tackles among Nathan Shepherd, Davon Godchaux and Vernon Broughton. This is the clearest personnel-vs-personnel mismatch on the card, though it is partly hostage to whether Stanley and Simpson play.
Ravens pass protection · Saints pass rush
Ronnie Stanley (toe) and John Simpson (groin) both sat out Wednesday and Thursday; Fox Baltimore reports the depth chart points to second-year tackle Carson Vinson and guard Andrew Vorhees as the next men up. Baltimore's rebuilt line already allowed a 49% pressure rate in Week 1 — fifth-worst in the league per Sports Illustrated's review — with rookie right guard Vega Ioane and new center Jovaughn Gwyn each beaten multiple times. New Orleans gets Carl Granderson (sack at Detroit) and Chase Young, who forced a strip-sack that was overturned, but Young was limited Thursday with a calf issue and Cameron Jordan was limited with a hamstring. The edge is even only because both sides are shorthanded.
Source: Baltimore Ravens — Zay Flowers, Two Ravens Starting Offensive Linemen Not Practicing
Saints pass protection · Ravens pass rush
New Orleans surrendered five sacks at Detroit per Russell Street Report, and PFF charged right tackle Taliese Fuaga with six pressures including a sack on a 41.2 game grade — the worst mark among Saints linemen. Baltimore's counter is Trey Hendrickson, signed for four years and $112 million, who produced eight pressures without a sack in his Ravens debut; the team posted a 58.6% pressure rate with him on the field and 20.0% without him. Hendrickson did not practice Wednesday or Thursday with a finger injury, which is the single biggest swing factor in this unit. Nnamdi Madubuike (neck) has been limited and, per SI, is unlikely to play without a full week of work.
Source: Russell Street Report — Ravens Must Impose Their Will Against Vulnerable Saints
Saints pass offense · Ravens coverage
Olave opened with 10 catches for 182 yards at Detroit, including a 47-yard connection, and was limited Thursday with a hamstring. Baltimore's Week 1 depth chart lists Nate Wiggins as CB1 and Marlon Humphrey as CB2, with Chidobe Awuzie third; Wiggins allowed zero catches on two targets across 34 snaps and Humphrey graded 91 while giving up three catches for 29 yards. Russell Street Report frames the game as Humphrey drawing Olave, but no team source has confirmed a shadow assignment or fixed left/right split, so treat the pairing as reported expectation rather than confirmed. T.J. Tampa (knee) missed both practices, thinning the depth behind the top three.
Ravens pass offense · Saints pass defense
Flowers put up 150 yards and a 54-yard touchdown before aggravating a hamstring in the first half at Indianapolis; NBC Sports lists him questionable and he did not practice Wednesday or Thursday. Rookie Ja'Kobi Lane is on injured reserve after wrist surgery, leaving Rashod Bateman, Devontez Walker, LaJohntay Wester, Chris Moore and tight end Mark Andrews. New Orleans starts Kool-Aid McKinstry at left corner and Quincy Riley at right per Ourlads, backed by safeties Justin Reid and Julian Blackmon, and held Jared Goff to 206 passing yards on 39 attempts. If Flowers sits, this leans toward Baltimore leaning on Henry and Andrews rather than stressing the boundary.
Source: NBC Sports — Zay Flowers aggravates hamstring, questionable for Week 2
Saints pass offense · Ravens pass defense
Shough's confirmed Week 1 line is 35-of-56 for 410 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions with an 87.6 rating — the third 400-yard game in Saints history — but 325 of those yards came in the second half and overtime, after a 10-of-22, 85-yard, one-interception first half. Sharp Football charts him with 62 dropbacks in a Saints offense that passed on 70.9% of snaps, second-highest in the league. Baltimore's pass defense ranked 30th at 247.9 yards per game in 2025 and held Daniel Jones to 166 yards in the opener. Volume is the Saints' path; efficiency early is the open question.
Saints run offense · Ravens run defense
New Orleans managed 25 carries for 84 net yards at Detroit, with Etienne at 46 on nine and Kendre Miller 30 on nine; Sharp Football has the Saints at a 29.1% run rate, 31st in the league. Kamara was a full participant Wednesday and Thursday despite a knee designation. Baltimore held Indianapolis to 20 carries for 102 yards while Nnamdi Madubuike (neck) was limited, and the Ravens controlled possession 35:20 to 24:40. Game script, not talent, is the main reason to expect New Orleans to keep throwing.
Reporting verified 2026-09-18. Further sources: The Football Database — Ravens vs. Colts box score · Saints.com — Lions vs. Saints Week 1 box score · Louisiana Sports — PFF grades from Saints' loss to the Lions · Baltimore Ravens — Zay Flowers, Two Ravens Starting Offensive Linemen Not Practicing · Fox Baltimore — Ravens have injury concerns heading into week two · Sports Illustrated — Ravens Pass Protection Remains A Problem · Russell Street Report — Injury Report: Ravens vs. Saints (Thursday) · Russell Street Report — Ravens Must Impose Their Will Against Vulnerable Saints · Baltimore Ravens — Grades & Snap Counts, Week 1 vs. Colts · Sports Illustrated — Ravens Thursday Injury Report Raises Concern · Saints.com — Week 1 game notes, Lions 31 Saints 30 · Baltimore Ravens — 2026 Week 1 Depth Chart
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
NO
-2.7
BAL
+1.2
This one's been played. Get the full Week 2 card free, every remaining game priced against the market.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Saints
23%
fair value (books)
Ravens
77%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
25%
Madden 27
75%
Madden 27
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: fair value against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
The starting quarterback is not confirmed, so we publish no model number on this game. The market prices are shown as they are.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Share this Oracle Ladder
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Written before the game and kept as published. Final: New Orleans Saints 24, Baltimore Ravens 17 — the graded call is above.
The Saints travel to face the Ravens in Week 2. Our power ratings put the Ravens 11th of 32 at +1.2 (Playoff tier) and the Saints 26th at -2.7 (Below Avg tier) — a 3.9-point gap that home field widens to a 5.5-point line on the Ravens, 65% to win. It rates as the 2nd-widest of the 16 games in Week 2.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Ravens offense grades +2.0 (10th of 32) against a Saints defense at -1.5 (20th) — 3.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Saints offense (-0.9, 26th) meets the Ravens defense (-1.1, 17th), a 0.2-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Ravens +0.4 (17th of 32) to -0.3 (32nd).
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Ravens at 9.2 wins (favored in 10 of 17) and the Saints at 6.2 (favored in 5) — 3.0 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Ravens' schedule and the 3rd-hardest on the Saints'.
One team has owned this series: the Ravens are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Ravens won 27-13 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Ravens are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favorites went 68%. The 65% on the Ravens here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20NOBAL, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 77% for the Ravens. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Ravens | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 78% 78c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game — US exchange | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
A live tile locked to Saints vs Ravens, Week 2 — our model's win probability against the Kalshi price for this one game, not "whichever game is closest today" — for a team blog, a newsletter or a Discord landing page. Free to preview on your own page; publishing runs on an Enterprise license, and the credit line stays on.
The MPU (300×250) and Leaderboard (728×90) sizes are IAB standard ad units — paste one where an ad already goes. Every NFL prediction-market widget.
Article width · 560×320
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/saints-vs-ravens-week-02-2026/hero" width="560" height="320" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Saints vs Ravens, Week 2 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Saints vs Ravens, Week 2 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/saints-vs-ravens-week-02-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Sidebar · 320×340
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/saints-vs-ravens-week-02-2026/sidebar" width="320" height="340" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Saints vs Ravens, Week 2 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Saints vs Ravens, Week 2 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/saints-vs-ravens-week-02-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
MPU · ad slot · 300×250
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/saints-vs-ravens-week-02-2026/mpu" width="300" height="250" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Saints vs Ravens, Week 2 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Saints vs Ravens, Week 2 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/saints-vs-ravens-week-02-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Leaderboard · ad slot · 728×90
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/saints-vs-ravens-week-02-2026/leaderboard" width="728" height="90" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Saints vs Ravens, Week 2 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Saints vs Ravens, Week 2 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/saints-vs-ravens-week-02-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
A live card locked to Saints vs Ravens, Week 2 — the Kalshi price at every spread strike for this one game — for a preview post or a game-day thread. Free to preview on your own page; publishing runs on an Enterprise license, and the credit line stays on.
Every NFL prediction-market widget.
Article width · 560×300
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-ladder/saints-vs-ravens-week-02-2026/hero" width="560" height="300" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Saints vs Ravens, Week 2 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Saints vs Ravens, Week 2 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/saints-vs-ravens-week-02-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Sidebar · 320×280
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-ladder/saints-vs-ravens-week-02-2026/sidebar" width="320" height="280" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Saints vs Ravens, Week 2 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Saints vs Ravens, Week 2 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/saints-vs-ravens-week-02-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
New Orleans Saints 24, Baltimore Ravens 17 — final, played Sunday, September 20, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Ravens by 8.5 (77% to win), and the Saints won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Ravens by 8.5 points, a 77% win probability over the Saints. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20NOBAL market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Ravens offense (+2.0, 10th of 32) against Saints defense (-1.5, 20th) — 3.4 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Ravens (+0.4, 17th).
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP20NOBAL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Ravens at 75c or below, or the Saints at 21c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
New Orleans Saints visit the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Ravens at 9.2 wins (favored in 10) and the Saints at 6.2 (favored in 5). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Ravens' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Saints', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20NOBAL, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 2 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP20NOBAL has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Ravens at 65% over the Saints sit in that band, off a 5.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 2 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Lions at BillsModel: Bills −4
Panthers at FalconsModel: Falcons −4
Vikings at BearsModel: Bears −6
Bengals at TexansModel: Texans −4
Steelers at PatriotsModel: Patriots −7
Packers at JetsModel: Packers −2.5
Browns at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −4.5
Eagles at TitansModel: Eagles −3
Jaguars at BroncosModel: Broncos −0.5
Raiders at ChargersModel: Chargers −6.5
Seahawks at CardinalsModel: Seahawks −6
Commanders at CowboysModel: Cowboys −4.5
Dolphins at 49ersModel: 49ers −6.5
Colts at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −2.5
Giants at RamsModel: Rams −7.5The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
One of 64 games in the first-quarter report
Every Week 1–4 game, with the opening and closing line, in one book. Read the report →
