NFL Playoff Odds 2026: Projected Records by Division
Simulation run as of
Projected standings for all eight divisions — projected record, PWR and the odds of a division title and a playoff berth for every team, from our 10,000-season simulation on our own power ratings. Played games are fixed as results before each run. Tap a team for its schedule, win-total ladder and live Kalshi prices.
Quick Answer
As of September 11, 2026, the projected 2026 NFL standings put the New England Patriots on top of the AFC at 10.3–6.7 (72% to make the playoffs) and the Seattle Seahawks on top of the NFC at 11.1–5.9 (74%) — the mean of 10,000 simulated seasons with 2 played games fixed.
AFC division favorites: East — Patriots (10.3 W, 45% to win it) · North — Ravens (9.1 W, 33% to win it) · South — Jaguars (9.4 W, 34% to win it) · West — Broncos (9.1 W, 38% to win it)
NFC division favorites: East — Eagles (9.5 W, 38% to win it) · North — Lions (9.8 W, 34% to win it) · South — Falcons (8.6 W, 30% to win it) · West — Seahawks (11.1 W, 46% to win it)
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AFC standings
AFC East
Division hub →
New England PatriotsPatriots10.3–6.7+5.545%72%2
Buffalo BillsBills9.9–7.1+3.838%65%3
Miami DolphinsDolphins6.8–10.2-3.39%23%4
New York JetsJets6.8–10.2-4.08%23%AFC North
Division hub →
Baltimore RavensRavens9.1–7.9+1.233%54%2
Cincinnati BengalsBengals8.6–8.4-0.626%46%3
Pittsburgh SteelersSteelers8.2–8.8-0.523%41%4
Cleveland BrownsBrowns7.8–9.2-2.318%36%
NFC standings
NFC East
Division hub →
Philadelphia EaglesEagles9.5–7.5+2.438%56%2
Dallas CowboysCowboys8.8–8.2+1.428%45%3
New York GiantsGiants7.7–9.3-1.317%31%4
Washington CommandersCommanders7.6–9.4-1.517%31%NFC North
Division hub →
Detroit LionsLions9.8–7.2+2.534%58%2
Green Bay PackersPackers9.6–7.4+3.032%56%3
Chicago BearsBears8.8–8.2+1.423%45%4
Minnesota VikingsVikings7.3–9.8-2.611%25%
Proj W–L = simulated mean wins and the losses that leaves over 17 games. PWR — points per game above an average team on a neutral field (PWR = Off PR + Def PR + ST PR). Div = share of simulated seasons ending in a division title; Playoffs = share reaching the postseason by any route. Projections, not results — no actual won-lost record is shown.
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NFL standings 2026 — frequently asked
How are these 2026 NFL standings projected?
Every row is the mean of a 10,000-season simulation run on our own power ratings. Each simulated season plays out the full 17-game schedule with home field, rating uncertainty and the real NFL tiebreaker procedure (head-to-head, division record, common games, conference record, strength of victory, strength of schedule). Games already played are fixed as results in every simulated season — 2 so far — so the projection is what the rest of the season looks like from here, not a preseason guess frozen in August. The same figure is printed on every team hub, division hub and the win-totals board.
When do the standings update?
The simulation re-runs after each week's games on the refreshed power ratings, and this page picks up the newest run within an hour. The stamp under the headline is the run date of the simulation you are reading — never the time the page was built. Actual won-lost records are not listed separately yet; played results enter the projection through the simulation.
What is PWR?
PWR — points per game above an average team on a neutral field. PWR = Off PR + Def PR + ST PR. A +7 team is expected to beat an average opponent by a touchdown on a neutral field; two teams four points apart make the stronger side roughly a 60% favorite before home field. Tiers: Elite at +7 and up, Contender at +4, Playoff at +1, Average at −2, Below Average at −5, Rebuild below that.
How do I read the playoff odds?
Div % is the share of simulated seasons in which the team won its division outright after tiebreakers; Playoff % is the share in which it reached the postseason by any route — division title or one of the three wild cards per conference. The four Div % figures in a division sum to 100%; Playoff % does not, since seven teams per conference qualify. Compare a team's Playoff % to the price of its Kalshi contracts on the team hub — a gap of several points is where a position starts to be worth building.
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