2026 NFL Standings & Playoff Odds
Simulation run as of
Standings for all eight divisions — every team's actual W–L, then projected record, PWR and the odds of a division title and a playoff berth from our 10,000-season simulation on our own power ratings. Played games are fixed as results before each run. Tap a team for its schedule, win-total ladder and live Kalshi prices.
Quick Answer
As of October 14, 2026, the projected 2026 NFL standings put the Jacksonville Jaguars on top of the AFC at 11.2–5.8 (83% to make the playoffs) and the San Francisco 49ers on top of the NFC at 12.2–4.8 (89%) — the mean of 10,000 simulated seasons with 79 played games fixed.
AFC division favorites: East — Patriots (10.7 W, 48% to win it) · North — Ravens (10.5 W, 39% to win it) · South — Jaguars (11.2 W, 72% to win it) · West — Chiefs (10.4 W, 51% to win it)
NFC division favorites: East — Giants (9.5 W, 48% to win it) · North — Vikings (10.9 W, 44% to win it) · South — Panthers (8.3 W, 39% to win it) · West — 49ers (12.2 W, 65% to win it)
This week on the boardNFL Week 6 predictions →Week 7 predictions →Week 5 results →
Week 6 gamesSeahawks at BroncosTexans at JaguarsBears at FalconsRavens at BrownsTitans at ColtsJets at PatriotsSaints at GiantsPanthers at EaglesSteelers at BuccaneersCardinals at RamsChargers at ChiefsBills at RaidersCowboys at PackersCommanders at 49ers
AFC standings
AFC East
Division hub →
Buffalo BillsBills4–110.9–6.1+2.443%77%2
New England PatriotsPatriots3–210.7–6.3+3.948%79%3
New York JetsJets2–37.4–9.6-2.38%25%4
Miami DolphinsDolphins0–54.1–12.9-4.61%2%AFC North
Division hub →
Baltimore RavensRavens4–110.5–6.5+1.839%70%2
Cincinnati BengalsBengals3–29.9–7.1+1.528%60%3
Cleveland BrownsBrowns3–28.9–8.1-0.918%42%4
Pittsburgh SteelersSteelers3–28.8–8.2-0.515%41%
NFC standings
NFC East
Division hub →
New York GiantsGiants3–1–19.5–7.5-1.048%59%2
Philadelphia EaglesEagles2–38.2–8.8-0.128%37%3
Dallas CowboysCowboys2–37.7–9.3-0.818%28%4
Washington CommandersCommanders1–3–16.3–10.7-1.85%12%NFC North
Division hub →
Minnesota VikingsVikings5–010.9–6.1+0.044%76%2
Chicago BearsBears3–29.5–7.5+2.218%53%3
Green Bay PackersPackers3–29.5–7.5+1.419%52%4
Detroit LionsLions3–29.3–7.7+0.820%50%
Proj W–L = simulated mean wins and the losses that leaves over 17 games. PWR — points per game above an average team on a neutral field (PWR = Off PR + Def PR + ST PR). Div = share of simulated seasons ending in a division title; Playoffs = share reaching the postseason by any route. W–L is the actual record from final scores; everything to its right is a projection.
What the standings pay: Super Bowl LXI champion odds
Projected standings are the who-is-good; the Kalshi champion market is the what-it-pays. Every team's live title price on the KXSB winner series, updated hourly.
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The standings hide things
The quarter-season report sets every record beside its point differential and the Kalshi price from Sept 8 to Oct 8. Read the report →
NFL standings 2026 — frequently asked
How are these 2026 NFL standings projected?
Every row is the mean of a 10,000-season simulation run on our own power ratings. Each simulated season plays out the full 17-game schedule with home field, rating uncertainty and the real NFL tiebreaker procedure (head-to-head, division record, common games, conference record, strength of victory, strength of schedule). Games already played are fixed as results in every simulated season — 79 so far — so the projection is what the rest of the season looks like from here, not a preseason guess frozen in August. The same figure is printed on every team hub, division hub and the win-totals board.
When do the standings update?
The simulation re-runs after each week's games on the refreshed power ratings, and this page picks up the newest run within an hour. The stamp under the headline is the run date of the simulation you are reading — never the time the page was built. The W–L column is each team's actual record, read from final scores and updated as games finish; played results also enter the projection through the simulation.
What is PWR?
PWR — points per game above an average team on a neutral field. PWR = Off PR + Def PR + ST PR. A +7 team is expected to beat an average opponent by a touchdown on a neutral field; two teams four points apart make the stronger side roughly a 60% favorite before home field. Tiers: Elite at +7 and up, Contender at +4, Playoff at +1, Average at −2, Below Average at −5, Rebuild below that.
How do I read the playoff odds?
Div % is the share of simulated seasons in which the team won its division outright after tiebreakers; Playoff % is the share in which it reached the postseason by any route — division title or one of the three wild cards per conference. The four Div % figures in a division sum to 100%; Playoff % does not, since seven teams per conference qualify. Compare a team's Playoff % to the price of its Kalshi contracts on the team hub — a gap of several points is where a position starts to be worth building.
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