NFL Week 4 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated · model ratings
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, Kalshi has not listed Week 4 game markets yet, so there is no price to grade a pick against. The model's strongest side of the 16 games is the Seahawks at 69% to win.
Every game below carries the model line, win probability, straight-up winner and projected score; picks light up the moment Kalshi opens the markets.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 16 Week 4 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
- Steelers at Browns — Model winner: Browns (53%)
- Colts at Commanders — Model winner: Colts (52%)
- Titans at Ravens — Model winner: Ravens (65%)
- Patriots at Bills — Model winner: Bills (55%)
- Jets at Bears — Model winner: Bears (67%)
- Jaguars at Bengals — Model winner: Jaguars (51%)
- Cowboys at Texans — Model winner: Texans (58%)
- Cardinals at Giants — Model winner: Giants (65%)
- Rams at Eagles — Model winner: Rams (51%)
- Packers at Buccaneers — Model winner: Packers (53%)
- Dolphins at Vikings — Model winner: Vikings (61%)
- Chiefs at Raiders — Model winner: Chiefs (60%)
- Chargers at Seahawks — Model winner: Seahawks (69%)
- Broncos at 49ers — Model winner: 49ers (57%)
- Lions at Panthers — Model winner: Lions (53%)
- Falcons at Saints — Model winner: Saints (52%)
All 16 Week 4 games with our DAEPA model win probabilities, the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the Kalshi line and the edge.
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Every NFL line that moves before kickoff — before the market catches up
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: model win probability against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Week 4 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 16 games. Kalshi has not priced this week yet, so favorites and upsets are labelled the moment the markets open.
- Browns over Steelers53%—
- Colts over Commanders52%—
- Ravens over Titans65%—
- Bills over Patriots55%—
- Bears over Jets67%—
- Jaguars over Bengals51%—
- Texans over Cowboys58%—
- Giants over Cardinals65%—
- Rams over Eagles51%—
- Packers over Buccaneers53%—
- Vikings over Dolphins61%—
- Chiefs over Raiders60%—
- Seahawks over Chargers69%—
- 49ers over Broncos57%—
- Lions over Panthers53%—
- Saints over Falcons52%—
Winner = the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability. Kalshi = the mid price of that side’s contract, in cents. An upset is a model winner priced under 50¢; that is a straight-up call, not the play — the play on each game is the edge side in the board above.
Week 4 projected scores
- SteelersatBrowns18.6–19.538.1
- ColtsatCommanders25.9–24.850.7
- TitansatRavens18.3–25.744.0
- PatriotsatBills25.0–26.551.5
- JetsatBears19.0–27.146.1
- JaguarsatBengals24.6–23.948.5
- CowboysatTexans22.6–25.147.7
- CardinalsatGiants22.0–27.249.2
- RamsatEagles23.5–22.846.3
- PackersatBuccaneers25.3–24.149.4
- DolphinsatVikings20.0–23.243.2
- ChiefsatRaiders22.8–19.742.5
- ChargersatSeahawks17.4–26.243.6
- Broncosat49ers24.0–26.450.4
- LionsatPanthers23.4–22.145.5
- FalconsatSaints21.7–22.243.9
Projected score = the model margin split around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings). The total is a derivation from the power ratings, not a stored engine number; the margin is the same one behind the model line above. One decimal, so a projection is never mistaken for a final score.
NFL Week 4 predictions — frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 4 2026?
Kalshi hasn't listed Week 4 game markets yet, so there is no market price to grade a pick against. The board shows the DAEPA model line and win probability on all 16 games, and the picks light up the minute those markets open.
How are these NFL Week 4 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the model win probability minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means the model has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap is 5 points or more; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who wins straight up in NFL Week 4 2026?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 16 Week 4 games, with its win probability. Browns over Steelers (53%); Colts over Commanders (52%); Ravens over Titans (65%); Bills over Patriots (55%); Bears over Jets (67%); Jaguars over Bengals (51%); Texans over Cowboys (58%); Giants over Cardinals (65%); Rams over Eagles (51%); Packers over Buccaneers (53%); Vikings over Dolphins (61%); Chiefs over Raiders (60%); Seahawks over Chargers (69%); 49ers over Broncos (57%); Lions over Panthers (53%); Saints over Falcons (52%). The winner is the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability; an upset is a model winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where the model and the price disagree by 5 points or more.
What are the projected scores for NFL Week 4?
Projected scores, winner first: Browns 19.5, Steelers 18.6; Colts 25.9, Commanders 24.8; Ravens 25.7, Titans 18.3; Bills 26.5, Patriots 25.0; Bears 27.1, Jets 19.0; Jaguars 24.6, Bengals 23.9; Texans 25.1, Cowboys 22.6; Giants 27.2, Cardinals 22.0; Rams 23.5, Eagles 22.8; Packers 25.3, Buccaneers 24.1; Vikings 23.2, Dolphins 20.0; Chiefs 22.8, Raiders 19.7; Seahawks 26.2, Chargers 17.4; 49ers 26.4, Broncos 24.0; Lions 23.4, Panthers 22.1; Saints 22.2, Falcons 21.7. Each score splits the model margin around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings) — the total is derived from the power ratings, not a stored engine number, which is why scores carry one decimal.
How often are the Week 4 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Model win probabilities from the DAEPA power-rating engine. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.