Premier League Matchweek 6 — Two Exchanges, Every Leg Priced
Matchweek 6 · Oct 10–12
Home, draw and away on Kalshi beside Polymarket US, with the cheaper venue marked on each leg after that venue’s real trading fee. The corner number is what a complete set costs all-in — buy all three legs and exactly one pays $1, so under 100¢ would be riskless. It is not, and we say so rather than dressing a comparison tool up as an arbitrage scanner.
Coventry vs NewcastlePremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Ipswich Town vs FulhamPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Hull City vs EvertonPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Sunderland vs BrightonPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Manchester United vs TottenhamPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Arsenal vs Leeds UnitedPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Aston Villa vs BrentfordPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Chelsea vs BournemouthPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham ForestPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Liverpool vs Manchester CityPremier League · match result · best ask per legUpdated every 15 minutes · 60 Kalshi contracts and 30 Polymarket US contracts read this scan
The readMatchweek 1: we priced all 30 opening-weekend legs against ESPN’s line. None were underpriced.Prices read Friday, Aug 21 — the opening board, not this one. Kalshi was cheaper on raw price in all ten opening fixtures; the fee reversed it in nine. Taking the ask won 1 of 10; resting a bid won 10 of 10.Listed on Kalshi only
Polymarket US lists a fixture closer to matchweek, so these have one book for now — no cross-venue comparison is possible until the second one opens.
Everton vs ChelseaPremier League · match result · Kalshi all-in ask per legBrentford vs LiverpoolPremier League · match result · Kalshi all-in ask per legFulham vs Hull CityPremier League · match result · Kalshi all-in ask per legManchester City vs Ipswich TownPremier League · match result · Kalshi all-in ask per legNewcastle vs Aston VillaPremier League · match result · Kalshi all-in ask per legBournemouth vs SunderlandPremier League · match result · Kalshi all-in ask per legTwo venues, one fixture, two order books
Kalshi and Polymarket US are both CFTC-regulated US exchanges, and they are separate exchanges — no shared liquidity, no shared settlement, no shared book. Polymarket also runs an international book, which is not what is quoted here; every Polymarket price on this page comes from Polymarket US, the venue a US trader actually reaches. Prices are best asks, compared after each venue’s own fee, because a fee-blind comparison quietly favours whichever venue charges more.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Can you trade the Premier League on Kalshi and Polymarket US?
Yes, on both. Kalshi lists every Premier League fixture as a three-way match-result event — home, draw, away — where each contract trades between 1¢ and 99¢ and the price is the market-implied probability. Polymarket US lists the same three outcomes as separate contracts. Both are CFTC-regulated US exchanges, and both are separate order books: the same fixture can be priced differently on each, which is exactly what this page shows.
What is a complete set, and why does it cost more than $1?
A Premier League match has exactly three outcomes and they are mutually exclusive, so buying one contract on home, draw and away guarantees that exactly one pays out $1. That bundle is a complete set. If you could buy all three for less than $1 the profit would be riskless. In practice each leg trades at its ask rather than its midpoint and both venues charge a trading fee, so a set costs a little over $1 — on the fixtures priced here, typically 102¢ to 106¢ all-in. That gap is the round-trip cost of the market, not an edge.
Is there arbitrage between Kalshi and Polymarket US on the Premier League?
Not on the fixtures we have priced. Both books are tight and a complete set costs more than $1 whichever venue you buy it on, and still does when you take the cheaper venue leg by leg. What is real is smaller and more useful: the two venues frequently split the best price within a fixture — one has the cheaper favourite, the other the cheaper longshot — so shopping each leg saves roughly a cent per contract against buying the whole set in one place. We publish that number rather than calling it arbitrage.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket US show different prices for the same match?
Because they are different exchanges. They share no order book, no liquidity and no settlement process, so each price reflects only the traders on that venue. Polymarket also runs a separate international book, which is not what this page quotes — every Polymarket price here comes from Polymarket US. Treating quotes from two venues as interchangeable is the most common way to convince yourself an edge exists when it does not.
How do the trading fees compare?
Both venues charge a fee that peaks on coin-flip contracts and shrinks toward the extremes. Kalshi publishes its schedule: 7% of price × (1 − price) per contract, which is 1.75¢ on a 50¢ contract and about a third of a cent on a 95¢ one. Polymarket US publishes a fee coefficient of 0.06 per market, which we apply in the same shape. Every price comparison on this page is made after fees, because a fee-blind comparison systematically favours whichever venue charges more — and that is the venue we happen to earn a referral on, which is precisely why we do not do it that way.
Why do fixtures disappear from this board?
They drop off at kickoff. Both venues keep match markets open through live play, so an in-play fixture will still quote a price — but any difference between the two venues then measures which one updates faster, not where value is. A thin board on a Saturday afternoon means the slate is underway, not that the page is broken.
Which Premier League matchweek is this board showing?
Right now it is showing Matchweek 6 · Oct 10–12. The board is one rolling page, not a page per round: it lists whatever both venues have priced next, and the matchweek label comes from matching each kickoff date against the published 2026–27 fixture calendar. When a date sits outside every published window the page shows the date range rather than guessing a number. Fixtures drop off at kickoff, so the label rolls forward on its own as each round is played.