Question 1

Can you trade the Premier League on Kalshi and Polymarket US?

Accepted Answer

Yes, on both. Kalshi lists every Premier League fixture as a three-way match-result event — home, draw, away — where each contract trades between 1¢ and 99¢ and the price is the market-implied probability. Polymarket US lists the same three outcomes as separate contracts. Both are CFTC-regulated US exchanges, and both are separate order books: the same fixture can be priced differently on each, which is exactly what this page shows.

Question 2

What is a complete set, and why does it cost more than $1?

Accepted Answer

A Premier League match has exactly three outcomes and they are mutually exclusive, so buying one contract on home, draw and away guarantees that exactly one pays out $1. That bundle is a complete set. If you could buy all three for less than $1 the profit would be riskless. In practice each leg trades at its ask rather than its midpoint and both venues charge a trading fee, so a set costs a little over $1 — on the fixtures priced here, typically 102¢ to 106¢ all-in. That gap is the round-trip cost of the market, not an edge.

Question 3

Is there arbitrage between Kalshi and Polymarket US on the Premier League?

Accepted Answer

Not on the fixtures we have priced. Both books are tight and a complete set costs more than $1 whichever venue you buy it on, and still does when you take the cheaper venue leg by leg. What is real is smaller and more useful: the two venues frequently split the best price within a fixture — one has the cheaper favourite, the other the cheaper longshot — so shopping each leg saves roughly a cent per contract against buying the whole set in one place. We publish that number rather than calling it arbitrage.

Question 4

Why do Kalshi and Polymarket US show different prices for the same match?

Accepted Answer

Because they are different exchanges. They share no order book, no liquidity and no settlement process, so each price reflects only the traders on that venue. Polymarket also runs a separate international book, which is not what this page quotes — every Polymarket price here comes from Polymarket US. Treating quotes from two venues as interchangeable is the most common way to convince yourself an edge exists when it does not.

Question 5

How do the trading fees compare?

Accepted Answer

Both venues charge a fee that peaks on coin-flip contracts and shrinks toward the extremes. Kalshi publishes its schedule: 7% of price × (1 − price) per contract, which is 1.75¢ on a 50¢ contract and about a third of a cent on a 95¢ one. Polymarket US publishes a fee coefficient of 0.06 per market, which we apply in the same shape. Every price comparison on this page is made after fees, because a fee-blind comparison systematically favours whichever venue charges more — and that is the venue we happen to earn a referral on, which is precisely why we do not do it that way.

Question 6

Why do fixtures disappear from this board?

Accepted Answer

They drop off at kickoff. Both venues keep match markets open through live play, so an in-play fixture will still quote a price — but any difference between the two venues then measures which one updates faster, not where value is. A thin board on a Saturday afternoon means the slate is underway, not that the page is broken.

Question 7

Which Premier League matchweek is this board showing?

Accepted Answer

Right now it is showing Matchweek 4 · Sep 12–14. The board is one rolling page, not a page per round: it lists whatever both venues have priced next, and the matchweek label comes from matching each kickoff date against the published 2026–27 fixture calendar. When a date sits outside every published window the page shows the date range rather than guessing a number. Fixtures drop off at kickoff, so the label rolls forward on its own as each round is played.

Premier League Matchweek 4 — Two Exchanges, Every Leg Priced

Frequently Asked Questions