Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, December 13, 2026 · Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Packers by 1.5 in Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers, NFL Week 14 2026 — 54% to win, and a Green Bay December game that has run a median 32°F since 2015. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13BUFGB yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Packers at 49c or below (or Bills at 41c or below) is where the model would take a position.
BUF
+3.8
GB
+3.0
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Bills
46%
model win prob
Packers
54%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
50%
Madden 27
50%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26DEC13BUFGB hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Packers at 49c or below, or the Bills at 41c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Bills at Packers
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Packers −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Packers −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Packers −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Packers −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Packers −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Packers −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Packers −9.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
3 more rungsPackers −10.5 → Packers −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| |||||||||||||||||||
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Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Cold-weather math: Bills at Packers in December
Start with the conditions, because they are the one thing about this game we can measure historically. Across 12 Green Bay home games in December since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 32°F with 9 mph of wind, and 83% of them were at or below 40°F — the coldest in the sample read 10°F. Our model prices none of that: it sees +3.0 for the Packers, +3.8 for the Bills, and lands on the Packers by 1.5 (54%). Weather is an argument you add to that number, not one already inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.1 (2nd of 32) against a Packers defense at -0.5 (14th) — 4.6 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Packers offense (+3.3, 5th) meets the Bills defense (-0.7, 16th), a 4.0-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.7 projected wins for the Packers against 10.1 for the Bills, favored in 13 and 13 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 6th-hardest on the Packers' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Bills'.
The series is dead level: 3-3 across 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Bills won 27-17 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Packers are 2-2. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Packers at 54% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC13BUFGB is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 54% / 46% — the tradable window is narrow: Packers at 49c or below, Bills at 41c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bills vs Packers on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26DEC13BUFGB
- Market-implied (Packers)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Packers)
- 54%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13BUFGB yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Packers at 49c or below, or the Bills at 41c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Bills vs Packers trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Packers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Bills vs Packers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bills vs Packers in Week 14?
Our power-rating model picks the Packers by 1.5 points, a 54% win probability over the Bills, for a projected score of Packers 27, Bills 26 on a ratings-implied 52.6-point total. The Packers rate 5th of 32 (+3.0) and the Bills 4th (+3.8); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13BUFGB yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the weather usually like for Green Bay games in December?
Across 12 Green Bay home games in December since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 32°F with 9 mph wind, 83% of them at or below 40°F, and the coldest at 10°F. That is a historical profile, not a forecast for this date — and our model carries no weather term, so it is not inside the 1.5-point line.
How do you take a position on Bills vs Packers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC13BUFGB on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Packers at 49c or below, or the Bills at 41c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Packers host the Bills?
Buffalo Bills visit the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, December 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 14, at Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI.
What does the model project for the Packers and Bills this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Packers at 9.7 wins (favored in 13) and the Bills at 10.1 (favored in 13). This game ranks 6th-hardest on the Packers' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Bills', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Bills vs Packers?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13BUFGB yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Packers at 49c or below or the Bills at 41c or below, off a 1.5-point line.
Can you trade Bills vs Packers on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 14 game market is KXNFLGAME-26DEC13BUFGB. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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