Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans
Sunday, November 29, 2026 · NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Texans by 3 in Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans, NFL Week 12 2026 — 59% to win, and a 3-day rest edge for the Texans, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29BALHOU yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Texans at 54c or below (or Ravens at 36c or below) is where the model would take a position.
BAL
+1.3
HOU
+1.8
Ravens
41%
model win prob
Texans
59%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV29BALHOUhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Texans at 54c or below, or the Ravens at 36c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Rest first, ratings second: Ravens at Texans
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Texans come in with 3 more days off than the other side — 10 days' rest for the Texans against 7 days' rest for the Ravens. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Texans by 3 (59%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 3-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Ravens come in off the Panthers, the Texans off the Colts. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Texans grade +2.4 on that side of the ball (1st of 32) against a Ravens offense at +1.2 (11th) — 1.2 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Texans offense (-1.3, 26th) meets the Ravens defense (-0.3, 12th), a 1.0-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.2 projected wins for the Texans against 9.3 for the Ravens, favored in 11 and 10 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 13th-hardest on the Texans' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Ravens'.
One team has owned this series: the Ravens are 11-3 in 14 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 2 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Texans won 44-10 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Texans are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Texans at 59% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29BALHOU, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Texans 59%, Ravens 41%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Texans contracts a buy at 54c or below and Ravens contracts a buy at 36c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Ravens vs Texans — frequently asked
Who is favored in Ravens vs Texans in Week 12?
Our power-rating model favors the Texans by 3 points, a 59% win probability over the Ravens. The Texans rate 9th of 32 (+1.8) and the Ravens 12th (+1.3); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29BALHOU yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Texans have 3 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 3-point line or the 59% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Ravens vs Texans?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV29BALHOU on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Texans at 54c or below, or the Ravens at 36c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Texans host the Ravens?
Baltimore Ravens visit the Houston Texans on Sunday, November 29, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 12, at NRG Stadium, Houston, TX.
What does the model project for the Texans and Ravens this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Texans at 9.2 wins (favored in 11) and the Ravens at 9.3 (favored in 10). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Texans' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Ravens', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 59% on a team like the Texans?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Texans at 59% over the Ravens sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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