Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, November 29, 2026 · NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Texans by 3 in Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans, NFL Week 12 2026 — 60% to win, and a 3-day rest edge for the Texans, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29BALHOU yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Texans at 55c or below (or Ravens at 35c or below) is where the model would take a position.
BAL
+1.2
HOU
+2.0
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Ravens
40%
model win prob
Texans
60%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
58%
Madden 27
42%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV29BALHOU hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Texans at 55c or below, or the Ravens at 35c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Ravens at Texans
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Texans −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Texans −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Texans −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Texans −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Texans −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Texans −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Texans −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Texans −10.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | ||||||||||
2 more rungsTexans −13.5 → Texans −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| ||||||||||||||
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Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Rest first, ratings second: Ravens at Texans
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Texans come in with 3 more days off than the other side — 10 days' rest for the Texans against 7 days' rest for the Ravens. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Texans by 3 (60%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 3-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Ravens come in off the Panthers, the Texans off the Colts. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Texans grade +2.6 on that side of the ball (1st of 32) against a Ravens offense at +1.0 (12th) — 1.5 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Texans offense (-1.3, 25th) meets the Ravens defense (-0.3, 11th), a 1.0-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.3 projected wins for the Texans against 9.2 for the Ravens, favored in 12 and 10 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 13th-hardest on the Texans' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Ravens'.
One team has owned this series: the Ravens are 11-3 in 14 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 2 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Texans won 44-10 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Texans are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 60% on the Texans here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29BALHOU, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Texans 60%, Ravens 40%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Texans contracts a buy at 55c or below and Ravens contracts a buy at 35c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Ravens vs Texans on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV29BALHOU
- Market-implied (Texans)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Texans)
- 60%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29BALHOU yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Texans at 55c or below, or the Ravens at 35c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Ravens vs Texans trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Texans | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Ravens vs Texans — frequently asked
Who is favored in Ravens vs Texans in Week 12?
Our power-rating model picks the Texans by 3 points, a 60% win probability over the Ravens, for a projected score of Texans 22, Ravens 19 on a ratings-implied 41.4-point total. The Texans rate 9th of 32 (+2.0) and the Ravens 13th (+1.2); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29BALHOU yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Texans have 3 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 3-point line or the 60% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Ravens vs Texans?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV29BALHOU on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Texans at 55c or below, or the Ravens at 35c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Texans host the Ravens?
Baltimore Ravens visit the Houston Texans on Sunday, November 29, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 12, at NRG Stadium, Houston, TX.
What does the model project for the Texans and Ravens this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Texans at 9.3 wins (favored in 12) and the Ravens at 9.2 (favored in 10). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Texans' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Ravens', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Ravens vs Texans?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29BALHOU yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Texans at 55c or below or the Ravens at 35c or below, off a 3-point line.
Can you trade Ravens vs Texans on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 12 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV29BALHOU. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 60% on a team like the Texans?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Texans at 60% over the Ravens sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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