Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, November 22, 2026 · Estadio Banorte, Mexico City, Mexico (neutral site)
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the 49ers by 3.5 in Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers, NFL Week 11 2026 — 62% to win, and a neutral-site game, so the model applies no home-field adjustment. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MINSF yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, 49ers at 57c or below (or Vikings at 33c or below) is where the model would take a position.
MIN
-2.6
SF
+1.0
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Vikings
38%
model win prob
49ers
62%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
29%
Madden 27
71%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MINSF hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the 49ers at 57c or below, or the Vikings at 33c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Vikings at 49ers
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| 49ers −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| 49ers −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| 49ers −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| 49ers −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| 49ers −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| 49ers −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| 49ers −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| 49ers −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| 49ers −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| 49ers −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
No home field: pricing Vikings–49ers on neutral ground
The schedule flags this one as a neutral-site game, which changes how the number is built. The model zeroes out the usual 2.5-point home adjustment, so the line is pure ratings: +1.0 for the 49ers against -2.6 for the Vikings, giving the 49ers by 3.5 and 62% to win. The 49ers are the designated home team on paper only. Take home field out and the ratings gap is all that is left — which is why this number is a full 2.5 points different from what the same matchup would price at in San Francisco.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the 49ers offense grades +3.1 (6th of 32) against a Vikings defense at -0.5 (15th) — 3.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Vikings offense (-2.5, 28th) meets the 49ers defense (-3.0, 31st), a 0.5-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the 49ers grade +0.9, 4th in the league, against +0.4 (16th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the 49ers at 8.9 wins (favored in 8 of 17) and the Vikings at 7.2 (favored in 4) — 1.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 13th-hardest game on the 49ers' schedule and the 7th-hardest on the Vikings'.
One team has owned this series: the Vikings are 7-3 in 10 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 6 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2024: Vikings won 23-17 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the 49ers are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 62% on the 49ers here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MINSF, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: 49ers 62%, Vikings 38%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes 49ers contracts a buy at 57c or below and Vikings contracts a buy at 33c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Vikings vs 49ers on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MINSF
- Market-implied (49ers)
- not listed yet
- Our model (49ers)
- 62%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MINSF yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the 49ers at 57c or below, or the Vikings at 33c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Vikings vs 49ers trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | 49ers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Vikings vs 49ers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Vikings vs 49ers in Week 11?
Our power-rating model picks the 49ers by 3.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Vikings, for a projected score of 49ers 26, Vikings 22 on a ratings-implied 48.2-point total. The 49ers rate 14th of 32 (+1.0) and the Vikings 27th (-2.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MINSF yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Is there a home-field advantage in this game?
No. The schedule flags it as a neutral-site game, so the model applies zero home-field points instead of the usual 2.5. The 49ers are the designated home team for scheduling purposes only. The resulting line — 49ers by 3.5 — is the raw ratings gap between +1.0 and -2.6.
How do you take a position on Vikings vs 49ers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MINSF on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the 49ers at 57c or below, or the Vikings at 33c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Where do the 49ers and Vikings play this game?
Minnesota Vikings and the San Francisco 49ers meet at Estadio Banorte, Mexico City, Mexico on Sunday, November 22, 2026, NFL Week 11. The 49ers are the designated home team, so the game does not carry home-field advantage in our model.
What does the model project for the 49ers and Vikings this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the 49ers at 8.9 wins (favored in 8) and the Vikings at 7.2 (favored in 4). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the 49ers' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Vikings', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Vikings vs 49ers?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MINSF yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the 49ers at 57c or below or the Vikings at 33c or below, off a 3.5-point line.
Can you trade Vikings vs 49ers on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 11 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MINSF. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 62% on a team like the 49ers?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The 49ers at 62% over the Vikings sit in that band, off a 3.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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