Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, November 22, 2026 · Neutral site
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the 49ers by 3.5 in Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers, NFL Week 11 2026 — 60% to win, and a neutral-site game, so the model applies no home-field adjustment. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MINSF yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, 49ers at 55c or below (or Vikings at 35c or below) is where the model would take a position.
MIN
-2.6
SF
+0.8
Vikings
40%
model win prob
49ers
60%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MINSFhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the 49ers at 55c or below, or the Vikings at 35c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
No home field: pricing Vikings–49ers on neutral ground
The schedule flags this one as a neutral-site game, which changes how the number is built. The model zeroes out the usual 2.5-point home adjustment, so the line is pure ratings: +0.8 for the 49ers against -2.6 for the Vikings, giving the 49ers by 3.5 and 60% to win. The 49ers are the designated home team on paper only. Take home field out and the ratings gap is all that is left — which is why this number is a full 2.5 points different from what the same matchup would price at in San Francisco.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the 49ers offense grades +2.9 (6th of 32) against a Vikings defense at -0.5 (16th) — 3.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Vikings offense (-2.5, 29th) meets the 49ers defense (-2.9, 31st), a 0.4-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the 49ers grade +0.9, 4th in the league, against +0.4 (16th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the 49ers at 8.8 wins (favored in 8 of 17) and the Vikings at 7.1 (favored in 4) — 1.7 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 13th-hardest game on the 49ers' schedule and the 7th-hardest on the Vikings'.
One team has owned this series: the Vikings are 7-3 in 10 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 6 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2024: Vikings won 23-17 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the 49ers are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 60% on the 49ers here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MINSF, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: 49ers 60%, Vikings 40%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes 49ers contracts a buy at 55c or below and Vikings contracts a buy at 35c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Vikings vs 49ers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Vikings vs 49ers in Week 11?
Our power-rating model favors the 49ers by 3.5 points, a 60% win probability over the Vikings. The 49ers rate 14th of 32 (+0.8) and the Vikings 27th (-2.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MINSF yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Is there a home-field advantage in this game?
No. The schedule flags it as a neutral-site game, so the model applies zero home-field points instead of the usual 2.5. The 49ers are the designated home team for scheduling purposes only. The resulting line — 49ers by 3.5 — is the raw ratings gap between +0.8 and -2.6.
How do you take a position on Vikings vs 49ers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MINSF on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the 49ers at 55c or below, or the Vikings at 35c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Where do the 49ers and Vikings play this game?
Minnesota Vikings and the San Francisco 49ers meet at a neutral site on Sunday, November 22, 2026, NFL Week 11. The 49ers are the designated home team, so the game does not carry home-field advantage in our model.
What does the model project for the 49ers and Vikings this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the 49ers at 8.8 wins (favored in 8) and the Vikings at 7.1 (favored in 4). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the 49ers' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Vikings', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 60% on a team like the 49ers?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The 49ers at 60% over the Vikings sit in that band, off a 3.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.