Los Angeles Chargers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, December 6, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Buccaneers by 2.5 in Los Angeles Chargers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL Week 13 2026 — 57% to win, and Buccaneers 18th of 32, Chargers 17th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06LACTB yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Buccaneers at 52c or below (or Chargers at 38c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LAC
-0.4
TB
-0.5
Chargers
43%
model win prob
Buccaneers
57%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC06LACTBhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Buccaneers at 52c or below, or the Chargers at 38c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
What the model sees in Chargers at Buccaneers
The Chargers travel to face the Buccaneers in Week 13. Our power ratings put the Buccaneers 18th of 32 at -0.5 (Average tier) and the Chargers 17th at -0.4 (Average tier) — a 0.1-point gap that home field widens to a 2.5-point line on the Buccaneers, 57% to win. It rates as the 7th-widest of the 14 games in Week 13.
No unit matchup in this game separates by even a point on our scale. The Buccaneers grade +0.5 on offense (18th of 32) and -1.1 on defense (20th); the Chargers -0.7 (22nd) and -0.1 (10th). Evenly-graded units on both sides of the ball is exactly the profile that produces a model line built from nothing but home field.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.3 projected wins for the Buccaneers against 8.2 for the Chargers, favored in 7 and 9 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 12th-hardest on the Buccaneers' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Chargers'.
One team has owned this series: the Buccaneers are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Buccaneers won 40-17 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Buccaneers are 4-0. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 13 Tampa Bay home games in December since 2015, the median temperature was 75°F and the median wind 7 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Buccaneers at 57% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC06LACTB is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 57% / 43% — the tradable window is narrow: Buccaneers at 52c or below, Chargers at 38c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Chargers vs Buccaneers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Chargers vs Buccaneers in Week 13?
Our power-rating model favors the Buccaneers by 2.5 points, a 57% win probability over the Chargers. The Buccaneers rate 18th of 32 (-0.5) and the Chargers 17th (-0.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06LACTB yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Chargers vs Buccaneers?
Buccaneers offense (+0.5, 18th of 32) against Chargers defense (-0.1, 10th) — 0.5 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Chargers vs Buccaneers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC06LACTB on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Buccaneers at 52c or below, or the Chargers at 38c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Buccaneers host the Chargers?
Los Angeles Chargers visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, December 6, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 13, at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL.
What does the model project for the Buccaneers and Chargers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Buccaneers at 8.3 wins (favored in 7) and the Chargers at 8.2 (favored in 9). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Buccaneers' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Chargers', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 57% on a team like the Buccaneers?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Buccaneers at 57% over the Chargers sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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