Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers
Sunday, November 22, 2026 · Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Ravens by 0.5 in Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers, NFL Week 11 2026 — 52% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 3.2 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22BALCAR yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Panthers at 43c or below (or Ravens at 47c or below) is where the model would take a position.
BAL
+1.3
CAR
-1.9
Ravens
52%
model win prob
Panthers
48%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV22BALCARhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Panthers at 43c or below, or the Ravens at 47c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Ravens–Panthers is a coin flip on our numbers
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Panthers rate -1.9 (24th of 32), the Ravens +1.3 (12th) — 3.2 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 48%/52%, and this rates as the 1st-closest game of the 13 in Week 11. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Panthers at 7.5 wins (favored in 4 of 17) and the Ravens at 9.3 (favored in 10) — 1.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 12th-hardest game on the Panthers' schedule and the 8th-hardest on the Ravens'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Ravens offense grades +1.2 (11th of 32) against a Panthers defense at -1.7 (22nd) — 2.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Panthers offense (-0.8, 24th) meets the Ravens defense (-0.3, 12th), a 0.5-point gap.
The series is dead level: 3-3 across 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Ravens won 13-3 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Panthers are 1-3. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 11 Carolina home games in November since 2015, the median temperature was 57°F and the median wind 5 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Ravens at 52% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26NOV22BALCAR is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 48% / 52% — the tradable window is narrow: Panthers at 43c or below, Ravens at 47c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Ravens vs Panthers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Ravens vs Panthers in Week 11?
Our power-rating model favors the Ravens by 0.5 points, a 52% win probability over the Panthers. The Panthers rate 24th of 32 (-1.9) and the Ravens 12th (+1.3); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22BALCAR yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Panthers (-1.9, 24th) and Ravens (+1.3, 12th) are only 3.2 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 48%/52%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Ravens vs Panthers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV22BALCAR on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Panthers at 43c or below, or the Ravens at 47c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Panthers host the Ravens?
Baltimore Ravens visit the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, November 22, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 11, at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC.
What does the model project for the Panthers and Ravens this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Panthers at 7.5 wins (favored in 4) and the Ravens at 9.3 (favored in 10). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Panthers' schedule and 8th-hardest on the Ravens', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 52% on a team like the Ravens?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Ravens at 52% over the Panthers sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 11 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Week 11 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.