NFL Week 14 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated · model ratings
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, Kalshi has not listed Week 14 game markets yet, so there is no price to grade a pick against. The model's strongest side of the 15 games is the Patriots at 72% to win.
Every game below carries the model line, win probability, straight-up winner and projected score; picks light up the moment Kalshi opens the markets.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 15 Week 14 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
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- Vikings at Patriots — Model winner: Patriots (72%)
- Buccaneers at Ravens — Model winner: Ravens (63%)
- Saints at Panthers — Model winner: Panthers (62%)
- Falcons at Browns — Model winner: Browns (53%)
- Titans at Lions — Model winner: Lions (68%)
- Bears at Dolphins — Model winner: Bears (56%)
- Broncos at Jets — Model winner: Broncos (58%)
- Colts at Eagles — Model winner: Eagles (64%)
- Texans at Commanders — Model winner: Texans (50%)
- Chargers at Raiders — Model winner: Chargers (60%)
- Chiefs at Bengals — Model winner: Bengals (57%)
- Giants at Seahawks — Model winner: Seahawks (70%)
- Rams at 49ers — Model winner: Rams (54%)
- Bills at Packers — Model winner: Packers (54%)
- Steelers at Jaguars — Model winner: Jaguars (66%)
All 15 Week 14 games with our DAEPA model win probabilities, the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the Kalshi line and the edge.
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Week 14 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 15 games. Kalshi has not priced this week yet, so favorites and upsets are labelled the moment the markets open.
- Patriots over Vikings72%—
- Ravens over Buccaneers63%—
- Panthers over Saints62%—
- Browns over Falcons53%—
- Lions over Titans68%—
- Bears over Dolphins56%—
- Broncos over Jets58%—
- Eagles over Colts64%—
- Texans over Commanders50%—
- Chargers over Raiders60%—
- Bengals over Chiefs57%—
- Seahawks over Giants70%—
- Rams over 49ers54%—
- Packers over Bills54%—
- Jaguars over Steelers66%—
Winner = the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability. Kalshi = the mid price of that side’s contract, in cents. An upset is a model winner priced under 50¢; that is a straight-up call, not the play — the play on each game is the edge side in the board above.
Week 14 projected scores
- VikingsatPatriots17.2–27.544.7
- BuccaneersatRavens21.2–25.646.9
- SaintsatPanthers20.1–23.843.9
- FalconsatBrowns19.2–19.939.1
- TitansatLions17.3–26.043.3
- BearsatDolphins25.2–23.148.3
- BroncosatJets23.0–20.243.2
- ColtsatEagles20.5–25.145.5
- TexansatCommanders22.3–21.744.0
- ChargersatRaiders22.0–19.041.0
- ChiefsatBengals22.5–25.047.5
- GiantsatSeahawks19.1–28.347.3
- Ramsat49ers27.7–26.153.8
- BillsatPackers25.6–27.052.6
- SteelersatJaguars20.0–25.645.6
Projected score = the model margin split around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings). The total is a derivation from the power ratings, not a stored engine number; the margin is the same one behind the model line above. One decimal, so a projection is never mistaken for a final score.
NFL Week 14 predictions — frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 14 2026?
Kalshi hasn't listed Week 14 game markets yet, so there is no market price to grade a pick against. The board shows the DAEPA model line and win probability on all 15 games, and the picks light up the minute those markets open.
How are these NFL Week 14 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the model win probability minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means the model has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap is 5 points or more; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who wins straight up in NFL Week 14 2026?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 15 Week 14 games, with its win probability. Patriots over Vikings (72%); Ravens over Buccaneers (63%); Panthers over Saints (62%); Browns over Falcons (53%); Lions over Titans (68%); Bears over Dolphins (56%); Broncos over Jets (58%); Eagles over Colts (64%); Texans over Commanders (50%); Chargers over Raiders (60%); Bengals over Chiefs (57%); Seahawks over Giants (70%); Rams over 49ers (54%); Packers over Bills (54%); Jaguars over Steelers (66%). The winner is the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability; an upset is a model winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where the model and the price disagree by 5 points or more.
What are the projected scores for NFL Week 14?
Projected scores, winner first: Patriots 27.5, Vikings 17.2; Ravens 25.6, Buccaneers 21.2; Panthers 23.8, Saints 20.1; Browns 19.9, Falcons 19.2; Lions 26.0, Titans 17.3; Bears 25.2, Dolphins 23.1; Broncos 23.0, Jets 20.2; Eagles 25.1, Colts 20.5; Texans 22.3, Commanders 21.7; Chargers 22.0, Raiders 19.0; Bengals 25.0, Chiefs 22.5; Seahawks 28.3, Giants 19.1; Rams 27.7, 49ers 26.1; Packers 27.0, Bills 25.6; Jaguars 25.6, Steelers 20.0. Each score splits the model margin around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings) — the total is derived from the power ratings, not a stored engine number, which is why scores carry one decimal.
How often are the Week 14 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Model win probabilities from the DAEPA power-rating engine. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.