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Home/NFL/Week 1/Jets vs Titans
Gridiron EdgeWeek 1 · 2026

New York Jets vs Tennessee Titans

Updated · market price

Sunday, September 13, 2026 · Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN

Quick Answer

As of September 13, 2026, Kalshi implies 52% for the Titans in New York Jets vs Tennessee Titans, NFL Week 1 2026, while our model has the Titans by 3 (58% to win) — a 6.5pp gap. Value side: the Titans.

Every NFL edge on the board →

Kickoff board

Week 1 · 2026-09-13

2 actionable markets of 2 priced — largest edge 6.5pp on Titans moneyline.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Titans moneylineModel 58% vs market 52% on TEN.Market-anchored fair value: TEN 54% (+2.8pp) — the Combo Edge Builder prices this leg off the anchored line; the raw model is above.51.5c58%Lean3.4%
Tyjae Spears UNDER 2.5 ReceptionsProjection implies 55% on the under; the line prices 49%.49c55%Lean2.8%

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

The trench read: Robert Saleh faces the team that fired him, with both rosters rebuilt around each other's castoffs

The Jets and Titans swapped defensive linemen this offseason — Jermaine Johnson for T'Vondre Sweat — and now Johnson lines up for his old coach's new team. Sauce Gardner is a Colt, Geno Smith is a Jet, and what is left is two bottom-tier rosters mid-rebuild. The board above already carries three separate rows on this game, none of them a blowout call, and the reason sits in the trenches.

Jets pass rush · Titans protection

A shorthanded Jets pass rush meets one of the league's worst offensive lines

Close to even

Tennessee's offensive line grades near the bottom of the league, and left guard Peter Skoronski is the one bright spot on an otherwise shaky unit. The problem for New York is that its own defensive line grades one rung lower, and starting edge Joseph Ossai is out with a foot injury, pushing Will McDonald IV and rookie David Bailey into bigger roles. Bottom-tier unit against bottom-tier unit — nobody wins this cleanly.

Titans offensive line, PFF preseason rank
28th of 32
Jets defensive line, PFF preseason rank
29th of 32
Peter Skoronski, PFF grade
79.0

Source: PFF — 2026 NFL offensive line rankings

Titans edge · Jets protection

Jermaine Johnson faces his old team, for his new one

Close to even

In a straight swap this offseason, the Jets sent Johnson to Tennessee for defensive tackle T'Vondre Sweat — reuniting him with Robert Saleh, his former head coach in New York. He gets a Jets line that grades in the middle of the pack, anchored by left tackle Olu Fashanu, who posted strong pass-blocking grades in six of his last eight games last season, with rookie right tackle Armand Membou on the other side.

Jets offensive line, PFF preseason rank
21st of 32
Fashanu pass-block grade 74.7+, last 8 games of 2025
6 of 8

Source: PFF — 2026 NFL offensive line rankings

Titans pass offense · Jets secondary

Sauce Gardner is a Colt now — the Jets' secondary is rebuilding on the fly

Edge: Titans

Gardner went to Indianapolis for two first-round picks and receiver Adonai Mitchell. What is left at corner — Jarvis Brownlee Jr., Brandon Stephens, Qwan'tez Stiggers, Azareye'h Thomas — is described by beat reporters as genuinely unsettled, and rookie D'Angelo Ponds, who missed the whole preseason with a calf strain, is doubtful on top of it. That group draws rookie first-rounder Carnell Tate and veteran Calvin Ridley.

Gardner trade return
2026 + 2027 firsts, WR Adonai Mitchell
D'Angelo Ponds (calf), Friday designation
Doubtful

Source: Colts — Gardner acquired from the Jets

Titans run offense · Jets run defense

Tony Pollard against a Jets run defense that has not fixed the problem yet

Edge: Titans

Tennessee's run game was among the worst in the league last season, but Pollard is the early-down runner — he cleared a thousand yards behind it — with Tyjae Spears in the change-of-pace and passing-down role, and Kalshi lists both. The Jets' run defense was worse still by yards allowed, and the fix — Sweat inside next to David Onyemata — has never played a live snap together. Two weak units, one of them at least carrying a proven runner.

Pollard rushing yards, 2025
1,082 · 5 TD
Jets run defense, 2025
4.4 YPC allowed · 29th in yards
Titans run offense, 2025
30th

Source: Pro-Football-Reference — 2025 Jets

Jets run offense · Titans run defense

Breece Hall, cleared to play, against a middling Titans run defense

Edge: Jets

Hall posted his first thousand-yard season last year and carries no game designation despite a groin note on this week's report. Tennessee's run defense sat in the middle of the league on yards per carry — not a weakness, but not a wall. This is the one clean statistical matchup New York has in the game, and it is also why the board's Hall row is about his receptions, not his carries.

Hall rushing yards, 2025
1,065
Titans run defense, 2025
4.3 YPC allowed · 15th

Source: Pro-Football-Reference — 2025 Jets

Quarterbacks · coaching

Robert Saleh's revenge game, and Cam Ward's second year under a new play-caller

Close to even

Saleh was fired by the Jets midway through 2024 and now coaches Tennessee against them in Nashville. Geno Smith, acquired from the Raiders, is New York's answer at quarterback after the Justin Fields era ended. Ward enters his second season under new coordinator Brian Daboll, hired specifically to develop him. Neither quarterback has a body of work with his current coordinator, which is the honest reason this unit is a wash.

Ward as a rookie, 2025
3,169 yds · 15 TD
Saleh
Fired by NYJ in 2024 · Titans HC since Jan 2026

Source: Titans — Robert Saleh hired as head coach

What this read does not know

  • D'Angelo Ponds was still listed doubtful (calf) on the Friday, Sept. 11 report, with Aaron Glenn saying the team wants more reps before playing him. If he is active, the Jets' corner rotation in the third unit is one body deeper than this read assumes.
  • No directional or gap-specific rushing splits were confirmed for either offense or defense — the run-game units rest on full-season totals only.
  • Garrett Wilson's full 2025 stat line could not be confirmed with confidence, which is why no number for him appears here even though his receptions row sits on the board above.
  • No PFF grades were found for Titans corners Alontae Taylor or Cor'Dale Flott, so the Jets' passing side of the game has no coverage read in this section.
  • The exact date of L'Jarius Sneed's release from Tennessee was not pinned down; his absence from the Titans' secondary is treated as fact, its timing is not.
  • Our own prop model is under a publication block for pass-yards and receiving-yards legs this week — the passing and receiving sides of the same run do not reconcile. No projection-based passing or receiving call appears anywhere in this read for that reason.

Reporting verified 2026-09-11. Further sources: Titans — official Week 1 injury report · JetNation — Ossai and Patrick out for Week 1 · Jets — Friday Week 1 injury report · PFF — 2026 NFL offensive line rankings · NFL.com — Titans-Jets trade: Sweat for Johnson · Jets — Geno Smith acquired from the Raiders · Last Word on Sports — Week 1 preview

PMP · WK 1 EDGE
Sun, Sep 13
AWAY NYJ -4.0
vs TEN -3
HOME TEN -3.7
Model · TEN 58% home win prob
Kalshi · TEN 52¢ yes mid
Edge +6.5pp model − market
📍 Nashville, TN BUY TEN
Model says Titans at 52c or better — 6.5pp above the market.Take the position on Kalshi →

Jets

42%

model win prob

Titans

58%

model win prob

Market-anchored fair value: TEN 54% (+2.8pp) — the Combo Edge Builder prices this leg off the anchored line; the raw model is above. Combo Edge Builder →

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →

46%

Madden 27

54%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Jets at Titans

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Jets at TitansSpreadLOCATIONBuy YES · Titans −3.5 →
0255075100%Titans −3.5Titans +14.5Titans +4.5Titans −1.5Titans −6.5Titans −20.5KALSHIPMP MODEL
Widest gap
🔒
at Titans −3.5
Market
38%
Kalshi · P(YES) at Titans −3.5
PMP Model
🔒
display-calibrated

We think the median sits somewhere else than the market does.

RungMarketModelGap
6 more rungsTitans +14.5 → Titans +6.5 · outside our published band, market only
Titans +14.5🔒outside range—NO →
Titans +13.5🔒outside range—NO →
Titans +10.5🔒outside range—NO →
Titans +9.5🔒outside range—NO →
Titans +7.5🔒outside range—NO →
Titans +6.5🔒outside range—NO →
Titans +5.5🔒outside range—NO →
Titans +4.5🔒🔒🔒NO →
Titans +3.5🔒🔒🔒NO →
Titans +2.5🔒🔒🔒NO →
Titans +1.5🔒🔒🔒NO →
Titans −0.5—🔒—not listed
Titans −1.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Titans −2.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Titans −3.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Titans −4.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Titans −5.5🔒——YES →
Titans −6.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Titans −7.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Titans −9.5🔒outside range—YES →
6 more rungsTitans −10.5 → Titans −20.5 · outside our published band, market only
Titans −10.5🔒outside range—YES →
Titans −13.5🔒outside range—YES →
Titans −14.5🔒outside range—YES →
Titans −16.5🔒——YES →
Titans −17.5🔒——YES →
Titans −20.5🔒——YES →

Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →

Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier
New York Jets-4.031stBelow Avg
Tennessee Titans-3.729thBelow Avg

Season outlook

NYJTEN
Average wins6.86.9
Make playoffs23%25%
Win division8%10%
Win Super Bowl0.7%0.7%

10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

Jets vs Titans player props

Our projection against the live Kalshi contract. Every prop is an “X or more” contract that pays $1 if the player gets there, so the price of the side we call, in cents,is the market’s implied probability — the edge is the gap between that and ours, in percentage points. Closest strike to our projection first.

Jets vs Titans player props — our odds against the Kalshi price of the called side, on the strike closest to our projection
PlayerContractCallOur oddsMktEdgeTier
Tyjae SpearsRB3+ receptionsover 2.5NOSkew55%49¢+5.3 ppMODERATE

All 11 player-prop edges for Week 1 →

Prop ladders in this game

All ladders →

Every Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called.

Tyjae SpearsReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED
0255075100%2+ rec3+ rec8+ recKALSHIBOOKS
Widest gap
—
one strike priced
Market
71%
Kalshi · P(YES) at 2+ rec
PMP Model
—
display-calibrated
Model pending

Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.

Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →

Carnell TateReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED
0255075100%2+ rec3+ rec4+ rec5+ rec6+ recKALSHIBOOKS
Widest gap
—
one strike priced
Market
82%
Kalshi · P(YES) at 2+ rec
PMP Model
—
display-calibrated
Model pending

Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.

Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →

Calvin RidleyReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED
0255075100%2+ rec3+ rec4+ recKALSHIBOOKS
Widest gap
—
one strike priced
Market
62%
Kalshi · P(YES) at 2+ rec
PMP Model
—
display-calibrated
Model pending

Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.

Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →

Kenyon SadiqReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED
0255075100%2+ rec3+ recKALSHIBOOKS
Widest gap
—
one strike priced
Market
48%
Kalshi · P(YES) at 2+ rec
PMP Model
—
display-calibrated
Model pending

Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.

Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →

Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

Jets vs Titans: where the prop prices are

The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — the Oracle calls above are the opinion.

Jets vs Titans: where the prop prices are — Kalshi mid vs sportsbook consensus per strike, widest gap first
PlayerPropKalshiConsensusGapBest price
Gunnar Helm25+ rec yds40.0¢48%-8.0¢over · Kalshi 43.7¢under · ESPN Bet 57.4¢
Tyjae SpearsRB3+ rec47.5¢51%-3.3¢over · Kalshi 49.8¢under · Novig 50.5¢
Tony Pollard10+ rec yds46.5¢50%-3.2¢over · Kalshi 48.7¢under · Novig 51.5¢
Garrett Wilson60+ rec yds53.5¢50%+3.1¢over · Fanatics 54.5¢under · ProphetX 48.5¢
Carnell Tate40+ rec yds46.0¢49%-2.8¢over · Kalshi 48.7¢under · ProphetX 55.2¢
Carnell Tate4+ rec42.5¢45%-2.7¢over · Kalshi 44.7¢under · ProphetX 55.2¢
Kenyon Sadiq15+ rec yds47.5¢50%-2.5¢over · ProphetX 46.9¢under · ESPN Bet 52.4¢
Calvin Ridley3+ rec37.0¢39%-1.9¢over · ProphetX 39.1¢under · ProphetX 64.3¢

All 147 priced prop strikes for this game →+ 84 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.

Jets vs Titans — player pages

All players →

Tyjae Spears

RB — Receptions

Every strike Kalshi lists on that player, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, and our model's probability beside both.

Reading the Week 1 line on Jets–Titans

Week 1 is the widest-error week of the season for every model, ours included — nothing about 2026 is on tape yet, and the ratings are priors, not measurements. With that stated plainly: the Titans rate -3.7 (29th), the Jets -4.0 (31st), and the model opens on the Titans by 3, 58% to win. Every number on this page will move more between now and kickoff than it will in any week that follows.

Season-long, the model can barely split them: 6.7 projected wins for the Titans against 6.7 for the Jets, favored in 3 and 4 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 17th-hardest on the Titans' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Jets'. It is the softest spot on the Titans' entire schedule.

The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Titans grade -1.5 on that side of the ball (21st of 32) against a Jets offense at -3.1 (30th) — 1.7 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Titans offense (-2.8, 29th) meets the Jets defense (-2.1, 26th), a 0.6-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jets grade +1.3, 1st in the league, against +0.6 (12th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.

One team has owned this series: the Jets are 8-4 in 12 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2024: Jets won 24-17 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Titans are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 9 Tennessee home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 81°F and the median wind 4 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.

Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Titans at 58% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NYJTEN contract implies 52% for the Titans against our 58% — a 6.5-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Titans as the value side at 52c.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Jets vs Titans on Kalshi

Kalshi event
KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NYJTEN
Market-implied (Titans)
52c · 52%
Our model (Titans)
58%
Model vs market
+6.5pp

Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NYJTEN. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 52c on the Titans is an implied 52% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 58%, a 6.5pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.

Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

Where Jets vs Titans trades

2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.

VenueTitansTrade
Kalshi52% 52cTrade on Kalshi →
Novig51% 51cOpen Novig →
Polymarketno captured price for this game — international bookSign-up offer →
Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract52% 52cOpen Robinhood →
Coinbasesame Kalshi contract52% 52cOpen Coinbase →
DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
Fanatics Marketsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

Jets vs Titans — frequently asked

Who is favored in Jets vs Titans in Week 1?

Our power-rating model picks the Titans by 3 points, a 58% win probability over the Jets, for a projected score of Titans 22, Jets 19 on a ratings-implied 41.7-point total. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NYJTEN market implies 52% for the Titans — a 6.5pp gap versus the model.

How reliable is a Week 1 model line?

Less reliable than any other week, and we would rather say so. The -3.7 / -4.0 ratings behind the 3-point line are preseason priors built from prior-season performance and roster change — no 2026 snaps are in them. Week 1 is the point of maximum uncertainty for the model and for the market, which is also why prices move most in it.

How do you take a position on Jets vs Titans?

The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NYJTEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Titans YES is quoted around 52c against our 58% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

When and where do the Titans host the Jets?

New York Jets visit the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, September 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 1, at Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN.

What does the model project for the Titans and Jets this season?

Across all 17 games the model projects the Titans at 6.7 wins (favored in 3) and the Jets at 6.7 (favored in 4). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Titans' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Jets', by model win probability.

What are the Kalshi odds for Jets vs Titans?

Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NYJTEN. The Titans YES contract sits around 52c, which is an implied 52% — against our model's 58%. That is a 6.5pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.

Can you trade Jets vs Titans on Kalshi?

Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 1 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NYJTEN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.

How often does the model win when it is 58% on a team like the Titans?

57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Titans at 58% over the Jets sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?

Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

Is Titans moneyline worth a position?

Our model puts it at 58% against a market price implying 52%, an edge of +6.5 points. Model 58% vs market 52% on TEN. We rate it lean, sized at 3.4% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.

Is Tyjae Spears UNDER 2.5 Receptions worth a position?

Our model puts it at 55% against a market price implying 49%, an edge of +5.8 points. Projection implies 55% on the under; the line prices 49%. We rate it lean, sized at 2.8% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.

Trade this game on Kalshi →Titans hub →Jets hub →Kalshi NFL hub →Week 1 edge board →NFL predictions hub →

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More Week 1 matchups

Patriots at SeahawksSeahawks −2.5
49ers at RamsRams −4
Bears at PanthersBears −0.5
Buccaneers at BengalsBengals −2.5
Saints at LionsLions −7.5
Bills at TexansTexans −0.5
Ravens at ColtsColts −1.5
Browns at JaguarsJaguars −7.5
Falcons at SteelersSteelers −2.5
Cardinals at ChargersChargers −5.5
Dolphins at Raiderseven
Packers at VikingsPackers −3
Commanders at EaglesEagles −6.5
Cowboys at Giantseven
Broncos at ChiefsChiefs −0.5

Full Week 1 board →Next: NFL Week 2 predictions →

Same model, inside your AI agent

The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.

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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.

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