New York Jets vs Tennessee Titans
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Quick Answer
As of September 7, 2026, Kalshi implies 54% for the Titans in New York Jets vs Tennessee Titans, NFL Week 1 2026, while our model has the Titans by 3 (58% to win) — a 4.5pp agreement. No actionable edge — we pass.
Kickoff board
Week 1 · 2026-09-07No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
NYJ
-4.0
TEN
-3.7
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 1 card free, every game priced against our model.
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Jets
42%
model win prob
Titans
58%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
46%
Madden 27
54%
Madden 27
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Power-rating comparison
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Jets vs Titans: where the prop prices are
The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — the Oracle calls above are the opinion.
| Player | Prop | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 2+ pass TDs | 33.0¢ | — | — | Kalshi only |
| Cam Ward | 225+ pass yds | 32.5¢ | — | — | Kalshi only |
| Cam Ward | 250+ pass yds | 25.5¢ | — | — | Kalshi only |
| Cam Ward | 275+ pass yds | 15.5¢ | — | — | Kalshi only |
| Cam Ward | 325+ pass yds | 6.5¢ | — | — | Kalshi only |
| Cam Ward | 10+ rush yds | 48.0¢ | off-ladder | — | over · Kalshi 50.8¢under · DK 52.6¢ |
| Garrett Wilson | 110+ rec yds | 13.5¢ | off-ladder | — | Kalshi only |
| Garrett Wilson | 120+ rec yds | 9.5¢ | off-ladder | — | Kalshi only |
See all 22 priced prop strikes for this game on the board →+ 30 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.
Reading the Week 1 line on Jets–Titans
Week 1 is the widest-error week of the season for every model, ours included — nothing about 2026 is on tape yet, and the ratings are priors, not measurements. With that stated plainly: the Titans rate -3.7 (29th), the Jets -4.0 (31st), and the model opens on the Titans by 3, 58% to win. Every number on this page will move more between now and kickoff than it will in any week that follows.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 6.7 projected wins for the Titans against 6.7 for the Jets, favored in 3 and 4 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 17th-hardest on the Titans' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Jets'. It is the softest spot on the Titans' entire schedule.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Titans grade -1.5 on that side of the ball (21st of 32) against a Jets offense at -3.1 (30th) — 1.7 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Titans offense (-2.8, 29th) meets the Jets defense (-2.1, 26th), a 0.6-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jets grade +1.3, 1st in the league, against +0.6 (12th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
One team has owned this series: the Jets are 8-4 in 12 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2024: Jets won 24-17 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Titans are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 9 Tennessee home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 81°F and the median wind 4 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Titans at 58% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NYJTEN contract implies 54% for the Titans against our 58% — a 4.5-point gap. That is inside our 5-point threshold, so we pass — the market and the model are telling the same story.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Jets vs Titans on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NYJTEN
- Market-implied (Titans)
- 54c · 54%
- Our model (Titans)
- 58%
- Model vs market
- +4.5pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NYJTEN. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 54c on the Titans is an implied 54% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 58%, a 4.5pp agreement. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Jets vs Titans trades
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Titans | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 54% 54c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 53% 53c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 54% 54c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 54% 54c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Jets vs Titans — frequently asked
Who is favored in Jets vs Titans in Week 1?
Our power-rating model favors the Titans by 3 points, a 58% win probability over the Jets. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NYJTEN market implies 54% for the Titans — a 4.5pp agreement with the model.
How reliable is a Week 1 model line?
Less reliable than any other week, and we would rather say so. The -3.7 / -4.0 ratings behind the 3-point line are preseason priors built from prior-season performance and roster change — no 2026 snaps are in them. Week 1 is the point of maximum uncertainty for the model and for the market, which is also why prices move most in it.
How do you take a position on Jets vs Titans?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NYJTEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Titans YES is quoted around 54c against our 58% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Titans host the Jets?
New York Jets visit the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, September 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 1, at Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN.
What does the model project for the Titans and Jets this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Titans at 6.7 wins (favored in 3) and the Jets at 6.7 (favored in 4). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Titans' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Jets', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Jets vs Titans?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NYJTEN. The Titans YES contract sits around 54c, which is an implied 54% — against our model's 58%. That is a 4.5pp agreement, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Jets vs Titans on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 1 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NYJTEN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 58% on a team like the Titans?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Titans at 58% over the Jets sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Is Titans moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 58% against a market price implying 54%, an edge of +4.5 points. Model 58% vs market 54% on TEN. We pass — no position.
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