Updated · market price
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, September 13, 2026): New York Jets 23, Tennessee Titans 10 — NFL Week 1, 2026. Our pre-game model had the Titans by 3 (58% to win); the Jets won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Titans at 52c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
New York Jets 23, Tennessee Titans 10Final
Model call: MISSOur pre-game model had the Titans by 3 (58% to win). The Jets won — that call missed.
Closing-line value on the Titans: -2c — we archived the Titans at 54c on Sep 7; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 52c on Sep 12. The market moved against our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 2 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
Tennessee opened as a three-point home favorite and closed at a point and a half, with the moneyline crossing from +142 to a pick. The market saw something. It did not see enough of it: New York held the ball for thirty-eight minutes, ran for 152 yards and never trailed.
Jets 23—Titans 10
Final✗ Call missedThis is a clean model miss with nothing behind it to soften. Our stored pre-game probability had Tennessee at 58.0% — a shade stronger than the opener and well clear of where the market ended up — and New York won by thirteen. No Kalshi position was ever published on this game: there is no nfl_weekly_edges row for it, which means the gap between our number and the price never cleared the publication threshold. So the chip above is a model miss and not a position loss, and the distinction matters because it is the difference between being wrong in public and being wrong in a file. The market’s behaviour is the lesson. DraftKings opened Tennessee -3 and closed -1.5 while the total sat still at 39.5 both ways, which is a line absorbing information about the sides and none about the scoring. Our number moved the other way from the market and ended up 58% on the team that lost by two scores. When the line walks a point and a half against a model that is already past the market on the other side, that is the disagreement to investigate, not to hold.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that won.
Q3
New York held the ball for 38:46 to Tennessee’s 21:14 and went two-for-two on fourth down. The Jets converted only two of twelve third downs, which normally kills a drive count, and the fourth-down aggression plus 152 rushing yards kept the Titans off the field anyway.
Q3
Hall ran for 102 on twenty-two carries and scored from four early in the third to make it 17-3. Braelon Allen added ten carries for forty. Geno Smith attempted only twenty-four passes and was not sacked once.
Q4
Three made field goals, two of them past fifty, turned stalled drives into a twenty-point lead by the five-minute mark of the fourth. Sanders missed one of four. In a game whose total closed at 39.5, eleven points from a kicker is most of what a team needs.
Q4
Ward went nineteen of thirty-two for 140 with a late touchdown to Elic Ayomanor and took three sacks. Tennessee managed eleven first downs, 195 total yards and four yards a play. Anthony Hill Jr. made sixteen tackles, which is what a linebacker’s stat line looks like when the defense never leaves the field.
Reporting verified 2026-09-13. Further sources: ESPN box score — Jets at Titans · ESPN game page — Jets at Titans · ESPN — Week 1 highlights: best plays, moments, touchdowns
The Jets and Titans swapped defensive linemen this offseason — Jermaine Johnson for T'Vondre Sweat — and now Johnson lines up for his old coach's new team. Sauce Gardner is a Colt, Geno Smith is a Jet, and what is left is two bottom-tier rosters mid-rebuild. The board above already carries three separate rows on this game, none of them a blowout call, and the reason sits in the trenches.
Jets pass rush · Titans protection
Tennessee's offensive line grades near the bottom of the league, and left guard Peter Skoronski is the one bright spot on an otherwise shaky unit. The problem for New York is that its own defensive line grades one rung lower, and starting edge Joseph Ossai is out with a foot injury, pushing Will McDonald IV and rookie David Bailey into bigger roles. Bottom-tier unit against bottom-tier unit — nobody wins this cleanly.
Titans edge · Jets protection
In a straight swap this offseason, the Jets sent Johnson to Tennessee for defensive tackle T'Vondre Sweat — reuniting him with Robert Saleh, his former head coach in New York. He gets a Jets line that grades in the middle of the pack, anchored by left tackle Olu Fashanu, who posted strong pass-blocking grades in six of his last eight games last season, with rookie right tackle Armand Membou on the other side.
Titans pass offense · Jets secondary
Gardner went to Indianapolis for two first-round picks and receiver Adonai Mitchell. What is left at corner — Jarvis Brownlee Jr., Brandon Stephens, Qwan'tez Stiggers, Azareye'h Thomas — is described by beat reporters as genuinely unsettled, and rookie D'Angelo Ponds, who missed the whole preseason with a calf strain, is doubtful on top of it. That group draws rookie first-rounder Carnell Tate and veteran Calvin Ridley.
Titans run offense · Jets run defense
Tennessee's run game was among the worst in the league last season, but Pollard is the early-down runner — he cleared a thousand yards behind it — with Tyjae Spears in the change-of-pace and passing-down role, and Kalshi lists both. The Jets' run defense was worse still by yards allowed, and the fix — Sweat inside next to David Onyemata — has never played a live snap together. Two weak units, one of them at least carrying a proven runner.
Jets run offense · Titans run defense
Hall posted his first thousand-yard season last year and carries no game designation despite a groin note on this week's report. Tennessee's run defense sat in the middle of the league on yards per carry — not a weakness, but not a wall. This is the one clean statistical matchup New York has in the game, and it is also why the board's Hall row is about his receptions, not his carries.
Quarterbacks · coaching
Saleh was fired by the Jets midway through 2024 and now coaches Tennessee against them in Nashville. Geno Smith, acquired from the Raiders, is New York's answer at quarterback after the Justin Fields era ended. Ward enters his second season under new coordinator Brian Daboll, hired specifically to develop him. Neither quarterback has a body of work with his current coordinator, which is the honest reason this unit is a wash.
Reporting verified 2026-09-11. Further sources: Titans — official Week 1 injury report · JetNation — Ossai and Patrick out for Week 1 · Jets — Friday Week 1 injury report · PFF — 2026 NFL offensive line rankings · NFL.com — Titans-Jets trade: Sweat for Johnson · Jets — Geno Smith acquired from the Raiders · Last Word on Sports — Week 1 preview
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
NYJ
-2.7
TEN
-4.9
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Jets
42%
our model
Titans
58%
our model
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
46%
Madden 27
54%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
The starting quarterback is not confirmed, so we publish no model number on this game. The market prices are shown as they are.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Written before the game and kept as published. Final: New York Jets 23, Tennessee Titans 10 — the graded call is above.
Week 1 is the widest-error week of the season for every model, ours included — nothing about 2026 is on tape yet, and the ratings are priors, not measurements. With that stated plainly: the Titans rate -4.9 (32nd), the Jets -2.7 (27th), and the model opens on the Titans by 3, 58% to win. Every number on this page will move more between now and kickoff than it will in any week that follows.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Titans at 4.5 wins (favored in 1 of 17) and the Jets at 6.3 (favored in 3) — 1.9 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Titans' schedule and the 14th-hardest on the Jets'. It is the softest spot on the Titans' entire schedule.
No unit matchup in this game separates by even a point on our scale. The Titans grade -2.9 on offense (31st of 32) and -2.3 on defense (26th); the Jets -1.4 (28th) and -2.0 (25th). Evenly-graded units on both sides of the ball is exactly the profile that produces a model line built from nothing but home field.
One team has owned this series: the Jets are 8-4 in 12 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2024: Jets won 24-17 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Titans are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 9 Tennessee home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 81°F and the median wind 4 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Titans at 58% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NYJTEN contract implies 50% for the Titans against our 58% — a 8.0-point gap. No position on this game.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game model number was 58% for the Titans. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Titans | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 50% 50c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 51% 51c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket.com (international) | no captured price for this game — international book | Informational |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game — US exchange | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 50% 50c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 50% 50c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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New York Jets 23, Tennessee Titans 10 — final, played Sunday, September 13, 2026; our pre-game model had the Titans by 3 (58% to win), and the Jets won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff our power-rating model favored the Titans by 3 points, a 58% win probability over the Jets. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NYJTEN market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Less reliable than any other week, and we would rather say so. The -4.9 / -2.7 ratings behind the 3-point line are preseason priors built from prior-season performance and roster change — no 2026 snaps are in them. Week 1 is the point of maximum uncertainty for the model and for the market, which is also why prices move most in it.
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NYJTEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. Titans YES is quoted around 50c against our 58% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
New York Jets visit the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, September 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 1, at Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Titans at 4.5 wins (favored in 1) and the Jets at 6.3 (favored in 3). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Titans' schedule and 14th-hardest on the Jets', by win probability.
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NYJTEN. The Titans YES contract sits around 50c, which is an implied 50% — against our ratings line's 58%. That is a 8.0pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
This game has been played, so the Week 1 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NYJTEN has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Titans at 58% over the Jets sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Patriots at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −2.5
49ers at RamsModel: Rams −4
Bears at PanthersModel: Bears −0.5
Buccaneers at BengalsModel: Bengals −2.5
Saints at LionsModel: Lions −7.5
Bills at TexansModel: Texans −0.5
Ravens at ColtsModel: Colts −1.5
Browns at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −7.5
Falcons at SteelersModel: Steelers −2.5
Cardinals at ChargersModel: Chargers −5.5
Dolphins at RaidersModel: even
Packers at VikingsModel: Packers −3
Commanders at EaglesModel: Eagles −6.5
Cowboys at GiantsModel: even
Broncos at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −0.5The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
One of 64 games in the first-quarter report
Every Week 1–4 game, with the opening and closing line, in one book. Read the report →
