Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Bears by 6.5 in Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears, NFL Week 2 2026 — 69% to win, and a NFC North game. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MINCHI yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Bears at 64c or below (or Vikings at 26c or below) is where the model would take a position.
MIN
-2.6
CHI
+1.5
Vikings
31%
model win prob
Bears
69%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MINCHIhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Bears at 64c or below, or the Vikings at 26c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
NFC North math: Vikings at Bears
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears is a NFC North game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 18. The model has the Bears by 6.5 (69%) off a +1.5 to -2.6 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC North, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bears offense grades +1.9 (8th of 32) against a Vikings defense at -0.5 (16th) — 2.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Vikings offense (-2.5, 29th) meets the Bears defense (-0.9, 19th), a 1.6-point gap.
On the standings side, NFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC North race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Bears at 8.9 wins (favored in 11 of 17) and the Vikings at 7.1 (favored in 4) — 1.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Bears' schedule and the 4th-hardest on the Vikings'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 25-23 in the Vikings' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Bears won 19-17 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Bears are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 69% on the Bears here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MINCHI, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Bears 69%, Vikings 31%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Bears contracts a buy at 64c or below and Vikings contracts a buy at 26c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the NFC North hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Vikings vs Bears — frequently asked
Who is favored in Vikings vs Bears in Week 2?
Our power-rating model favors the Bears by 6.5 points, a 69% win probability over the Vikings. The Bears rate 10th of 32 (+1.5) and the Vikings 27th (-2.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MINCHI yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a NFC North result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC North teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 18. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Bears by 6.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Vikings vs Bears?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MINCHI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Bears at 64c or below, or the Vikings at 26c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Bears host the Vikings?
Minnesota Vikings visit the Chicago Bears on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at Soldier Field, Chicago, IL.
What does the model project for the Bears and Vikings this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Bears at 8.9 wins (favored in 11) and the Vikings at 7.1 (favored in 4). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Bears' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Vikings', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 69% on a team like the Bears?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Bears at 69% over the Vikings sit in that band, off a 6.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Vikings–Bears, Week 18 →
More Week 2 matchups
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