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Home/NFL/Week 2/Vikings vs Bears
Gridiron EdgeWeek 2 · 2026NFC North rivalry

Minnesota Vikings 9, Chicago Bears 3

Final. The rematch: Bears vs Vikings, Week 18 →Upset: Vikings closed +180 and won. Every 2026 upset, by closing line →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, September 20, 2026 · Soldier Field, Chicago, IL

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, September 20, 2026): Minnesota Vikings 9, Chicago Bears 3 — NFL Week 2, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bears by 4.5 (65% to win); the Vikings won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Bears at 66c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

New to these pages? Watch the 4-minute guide →

Settled

Minnesota Vikings 9, Chicago Bears 3Final

Model call: MISS

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bears by 4.5 (65% to win). The Vikings won — that call missed.

Closing-line value on the Bears: -3c — we archived the Bears at 69c on Sep 14; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 66c on Sep 20. The market moved against our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 3 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Minnesota 9, Chicago 3: four field goals in the rain, and the offense that scored 59 last week did not reach the end zone

Will Reichard kicked three field goals, the last from 39 yards with 1:09 left, and a Minnesota defense that sacked Chicago four times held the Bears to three points a week after they put up 59 at Carolina. Caleb Williams left with a right hamstring injury in the fourth quarter. Twelve combined points cleared nothing: the closing total was 46.5, and the one position the ledger carried on this game was the under.

Vikings 9—Bears 3

Final✗ Call missed

Two claims on this page and they went opposite ways. The chip grades the stored probability, which had Chicago at 65.5% — the market’s number, anchored at weight zero from a 4.5-point line — and Chicago lost, so the chip reads a miss. The model’s own read was worse than the market’s: Chicago by 5.9 points against a line of 4.5, a lean toward the team that scored three. No game-winner position was published; the lean sat on the same side as the price and nothing cleared the floor. The position that was published is the other claim. The ledger carries 2026_02_MIN_CHI_total, a MODERATE under at the 45.5 rung (ticker KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP20MINCHI-46): the model priced the over at 50.1% against a Kalshi price of 56c, a 5.9-point edge to the under, entered at 45.5c for the NO side on Thursday 2026-09-18 with the YES at 54.5c, and the YES closed at 53.5c for a one-cent CLV in our favour. The game produced twelve points. That position resolved our way, and by thirty-three and a half points it was never in doubt after halftime. On the player board the one visible Chicago call cleared — Luther Burden III under 4.5 receptions at 43.5c, MODERATE, and he caught three. A Williams passing-yards under at 224.5 also sat in the ledger and would have resolved on his 138; it does not count, pass_yds is suppressed. Minnesota carried no PLAY rows on the final board. Three WATCH rows went two and one and are graded apart.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Bears −3.5 → Bears −4.5
Total
45.5 → 46.5
To win
MIN +154 / CHI −185 → MIN +180 / CHI −218

The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total rose 1 to 46.5; the game landed on 12.

How it happened

Q1

Reichard from 35, Santos from 50, and Byron Murphy Jr. intercepted an ill-advised throw

Reichard opened the scoring from 35 with 11:03 left in the first and Cairo Santos answered from 50 six minutes later. Murphy’s interception of Williams in the quarter was the first of two Chicago turnovers; Isaiah Rodgers recovered the fumble that was the other, and later blocked a field-goal attempt. In the rain at Soldier Field neither team would reach the end zone all afternoon.

After one
Vikings 3, Bears 3
Chicago turnovers
2 (1 INT, 1 fumble lost)
Attendance
58,914

ESPN — AP recap

Q2

A 49-yarder for 6-3, and that was the scoring for the next thirty-six minutes

Reichard hit from 49 with 8:18 left in the half. Nobody scored again until the fourth quarter. Chicago ran 31 times for 134 yards and reached the red zone three times without points; Minnesota went one for thirteen on third down and did not need to be better than that because Aaron Jones was carrying the ground game at 4.6 a rush.

Halftime
Vikings 6, Bears 3
Chicago red zone
0 for 3
Aaron Jones
23 car · 105 yds

ESPN — box score

Q3

Four sacks, two of them Dallas Turner’s, and a scoreless third quarter

Brian Flores’ front sacked Chicago four times for 29 yards; Turner had two, Blake Cashman had one to go with ten tackles. The Bears, who rolled up 552 yards a week earlier, finished with 297. Carson Wentz called it a gritty game for the whole team, and the quarter produced no points from either side.

After three
Vikings 6, Bears 3
Minnesota sacks
4 for 29 yds (Turner 2)
Chicago total yards
297 (552 in Week 1)

ESPN — AP recap

Q4

Williams left on a scramble, Reichard hit from 39, and Turner threw Bagent down on the last play

Williams was helped off midway through the quarter after hurting his right hamstring on a scramble deep in Minnesota territory; he finished 15 of 26 for 138 and five carries for 42. Tyson Bagent took over. Reichard’s 39-yarder with 1:09 left made it 9-3, and Turner’s sack of Bagent on the final play ended it. Minnesota is 2-0 for the first time since 2024 and has won seven straight at Soldier Field.

Williams
15/26 · 138 yds · 1 INT · 5 car · 42 yds
Reichard
3/3 (35, 49, 39)
Third down
MIN 3/13 · CHI 5/15

ESPN — AP recap

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game. result, pnl_cents and graded_at were null on 2026_02_MIN_CHI_total and on every Week 2 prop row when this was written — grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule. The under’s resolution above is read off the final score; the P/L is the ledger’s number, not this page’s, and entry_price on that row is the YES price, so the NO side’s cost is 100 minus it. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • The MIN_CHI total row was created 2026-09-18 18:17 UTC. The Week 2 TNF recap records that the totals model was retired from publication on 2026-09-16, and total_centre is NULL on this game’s fair-value row. This recap reports the ledger row as it stands — a MODERATE under at 45.5, with a ticker, an entry and a close capture — and does not resolve how it was surfaced after the retirement. If it was never on a public board, it belongs in the same bucket as the suppressed strikes and should not be counted.
  • Which quarter the Murphy interception and the Rodgers fumble recovery fell in comes from the AP recap and the box score, not from a play-by-play this recap read; the blocked field goal is described by the AP as late and is not placed more precisely here.
  • The severity of Williams’ hamstring injury was not known when this was published — Ben Johnson said the team would know more the next day.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price.

Reporting verified 2026-09-20. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Rodgers and Turner help the Vikings shut down the Bears for a 9-3 win in the rain · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line

Wentz-or-Murray Vikings meet a Bears offense that just hung 59, in a 1-0 NFC North collision.

Both teams enter 1-0 after combining for 98 points in Week 1 — the most ever by two teams that then met each other in Week 2 ([vikings.com](https://www.vikings.com/news/how-to-watch-listen-stream-bears-2026-week-2)). Minnesota's quarterback room is the central unresolved variable: Kyler Murray is working through concussion protocol and Carson Wentz is widely expected to start, with J.J. McCarthy behind him ([NationalFootballPost](https://www.nationalfootballpost.com/2026/09/14/vikings-expected-to-start-qb-carson-wentz-in-week-2), [Athlon](https://athlonsports.com/nfl/minnesota-vikings/vikings-carson-wentz-kyler-murray-jj-mccarthy-week-two-bears)). Traders watching this market should treat Friday's final injury report as the decisive information release, since Chicago's two running backs and Minnesota's starting quarterback and right tackle all carry unresolved practice designations ([vikings.com injury report](https://www.vikings.com/news/injury-report-week-2-chicago-bears-2026)).

Bears run offense · Vikings run defense

D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai vs. Minnesota's young interior front

Edge: Bears

Chicago ran for 291 yards in Week 1 at Carolina, and Ben Johnson said flatly that "the story of the game ended up being the rushing" — Swift went 124 yards and three touchdowns on 18 carries, Monangai added 100 yards on 10 carries with a 61-yard score ([chicagobears.com](https://www.chicagobears.com/news/game-recap-bears-offense-shines-in-season-opening-win-over-panthers)). Minnesota's rebuilt defensive line answered in the other direction, holding Green Bay to 66 rushing yards and making a fourth-and-1 stop late ([SI/Inside the Vikings](https://www.si.com/nfl/vikings/onsi/grading-every-vikings-position-group-in-sunday-s-39-22-win-over-packers-01m2e6zhj4hc)). The complication is health: both Swift (ankle/knee) and Monangai (hamstring) were limited Wednesday and Thursday ([NBC Sports PFT](https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/dandre-swift-kyle-monangai-remain-limited-on-thursday-injury-report)). This is the single largest volume-driver on the board and it runs straight at a Vikings line that lost both veteran starters this offseason.

Bears Week 1 rushing yards
291 (of 552 total)
Swift / Monangai Week 1
124 yds, 3 TD / 100 yds, 1 TD
Vikings Week 1 rush yards allowed
66 (to Green Bay)

Source: chicagobears.com game recap

Vikings pass rush · Bears pass protection

Brian Flores's pressure package vs. Joe Thuney and a patched Bears line

Edge: Vikings

Flores blitzed on 74 percent of Green Bay's dropbacks in Week 1 and overwhelmed the Packers' line late ([vikings.com](https://www.vikings.com/news/nfl-power-rankings-week-1-victory-over-packers)); Minnesota reportedly led the league in blitz rate at 71.7 percent ([Windy City Gridiron via Yahoo](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/week-2-nfl-preview-chicago-150000390.html)). Chicago's line already gave up 15 pressures, two sacks and three quarterback hits to Carolina, with All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney charged for a team-high four pressures ([SI/Bear Digest](https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/onsi/everything-that-went-wrong-for-chicago-bears-in-week-1-win-over-carolina-panthers)). Right tackle Darnell Wright missed Wednesday with a knee issue before returning limited Thursday, and Thuney took a veteran rest day ([vikings.com injury report](https://www.vikings.com/news/injury-report-week-2-chicago-bears-2026)). Minnesota's edge duo arrives hot — Dallas Turner and Andrew Van Ginkel produced 15 combined pressures and back-to-back late sacks against Green Bay ([SI](https://www.si.com/nfl/vikings/onsi/grading-every-vikings-position-group-in-sunday-s-39-22-win-over-packers-01m2e6zhj4hc)).

Vikings Week 1 blitz rate
74% of Packers dropbacks
Bears Week 1 pressures allowed
15 pressures, 2 sacks, 3 QB hits
Turner + Van Ginkel Week 1
15 combined pressures

Source: vikings.com Week 1 power rankings

Vikings pass protection · Bears pass rush

Christian Darrisaw's line vs. Montez Sweat and Dayo Odeyingbo

Close to even

Minnesota's line — Darrisaw, Donovan Jackson, Blake Brandel, Will Fries, Brian O'Neill — allowed three sacks and cleared only 3.1 yards per carry in the opener, drawing a C grade and two early false starts ([SI](https://www.si.com/nfl/vikings/onsi/grading-every-vikings-position-group-in-sunday-s-39-22-win-over-packers-01m2e6zhj4hc)). O'Neill is the flag here: limited Wednesday, did not practice Thursday with a knee issue, with rookie Caleb Tiernan listed behind him ([injury report](https://www.vikings.com/news/injury-report-week-2-chicago-bears-2026), [depth chart](https://www.vikings.com/news/depth-chart-nfl-regular-season-2026)). Chicago's front was underwhelming in Week 1 — 22 pressures but only 2.0 sacks on 43 dropbacks, with Montez Sweat and Dayo Odeyingbo at five pressures apiece and Odeyingbo's 62.9 grade the unit's best ([A to Z Sports](https://atozsports.com/nfl/chicago-bears-news/bears-defense-performance-week-1-dennis-allen-dillon-thieneman-malik-muhammad/)). Chicago pointedly did not add an edge rusher this offseason ([Sun-Times](https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2026/07/29/bears-training-camp-edge-rusher-defensive-end-likely-not-add-dennis-allen-ryan-poles-dayo-odeyingbo-montez-sweat-austin-booker-nfl)).

Vikings Week 1 sacks allowed
3
Bears Week 1 pass rush
22 pressures, 2.0 sacks on 43 dropbacks
Brian O'Neill (knee) practice
LP Wed, DNP Thu

Source: SI / Inside the Vikings position grades

Vikings pass offense · Bears secondary

Justin Jefferson vs. Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson

Edge: Vikings

Chicago's outside corners were the worst-graded part of a defense that gave up 361 passing yards and 37 points to Bryce Young. Jaylon Johnson allowed 127 receiving yards on seven targets — the most by any cornerback in Week 1 — and Tyrique Stevenson allowed 77 yards and two touchdowns on five targets with a perfect 158.3 rating against ([A to Z Sports](https://atozsports.com/nfl/chicago-bears-news/bears-defense-performance-week-1-dennis-allen-dillon-thieneman-malik-muhammad/), [SI/Bear Digest](https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/onsi/everything-that-went-wrong-for-chicago-bears-in-week-1-win-over-carolina-panthers)). Johnson called Jefferson flawless this week — "I don't think there's a flaw to his game" — and framed the assignment as a team responsibility rather than a one-on-one shadow job, which argues against a pure travel plan ([Heavy](https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/chicago-bears/jaylon-johnson-justin-jefferson-no-flaw-bears-vikings/)). Jefferson has 59 catches for 790 yards and four touchdowns in 10 career games against Chicago ([Heavy](https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/chicago-bears/jaylon-johnson-justin-jefferson-no-flaw-bears-vikings/)). Slot coverage is thinner still: nickel Kyler Gordon opened the year on PUP and is out at least the first four games ([Sun-Times](https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2026/08/30/bears-leave-cb-kyler-gordon-on-pup-list-to-start-season-ruling-him-out-for-first-4-games)).

Jaylon Johnson Week 1 coverage
127 yds allowed, most by any CB
Jefferson vs. Chicago, career
59 rec, 790 yds, 4 TD in 10 games
Kyler Gordon (nickel)
On PUP, out first four games

Source: A to Z Sports Bears Week 1 defensive review

Vikings pass offense · Bears secondary

Carson Wentz, Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy — three names, one job

Close to even

Murray was concussed on a first-quarter scramble against Green Bay after going 3-of-5 for 18 yards, and Wentz relieved him for 12-of-19, 133 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions in the 39-22 win ([footballnationusa](https://www.footballnationusa.com/post/kyler-murray-concussion-wentz-expected-to-start-week-2), [NBC Sports PFT](https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/packers-melt-down-in-fourth-quarter-vikings-pull-off-39-22-victory)). Murray was a limited participant Wednesday and Thursday; Kevin O'Connell said "Kyler's going to be a limited practice participant today, working through the protocol," and pointed to Friday as the decision day ([A to Z Sports](https://atozsports.com/nfl/minnesota-vikings-news/vikings-kyler-murray-injury-update-concussion-protocol-concerns/)). ESPN's Dan Graziano reported the sense that Murray starts if he clears in time and Wentz starts if he does not ([via Athlon](https://athlonsports.com/nfl/minnesota-vikings/vikings-carson-wentz-kyler-murray-jj-mccarthy-week-two-bears)). McCarthy was the emergency third quarterback in Week 1 and is not in line to start; note also that Wentz is reported 4-0 in his career against Chicago ([Yahoo/Windy City Gridiron](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/week-2-nfl-preview-chicago-150000390.html)).

Wentz Week 1 relief line
12/19, 133 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
Murray practice status
Limited Wed and Thu, still in protocol
McCarthy Week 1 role
Emergency third QB

Source: NationalFootballPost — Vikings expected to start Wentz

Vikings run offense · Bears run defense

Aaron Jones without Jordan Mason vs. a Bears run defense that just leaked 5.7 a carry

Close to even

Minnesota ran 34 times against Green Bay but managed only 3.1 yards per carry, and Jordan Mason — who shared the top of the depth chart with Aaron Jones — has since gone on injured reserve with a thumb injury ([SI](https://www.si.com/nfl/vikings/onsi/grading-every-vikings-position-group-in-sunday-s-39-22-win-over-packers-01m2e6zhj4hc), [vikings.com injury report](https://www.vikings.com/news/injury-report-week-2-chicago-bears-2026), [The Viking Age](https://thevikingage.com/minnesota-vikings-chicago-bears-week-2-tracker-injury-updates-predictions-storylines)). The opening is real: Carolina gained 125 rushing yards on 22 carries, 5.7 per attempt, against Chicago ([SI/Bear Digest](https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/onsi/everything-that-went-wrong-for-chicago-bears-in-week-1-win-over-carolina-panthers)). Dennis Allen's group ran eight defensive linemen out for 10-plus snaps and the tone in the film room was unmistakable — tackle Kentavius Street, asked how Allen sounded, answered "Have you ever disappointed your parents?" ([SI](https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/onsi/why-dennis-allen-s-disappointment-points-to-an-improved-bears-defense-in-week-2)). Whether Minnesota can convert that opening with a thinner back room is the open question.

Vikings Week 1 rushing
34 carries, 3.1 yds/carry
Bears Week 1 rush defense
125 yds on 22 carries (5.7 avg)
Jordan Mason
Placed on injured reserve (thumb)

Source: SI / Bear Digest — what went wrong in Week 1

Bears pass offense · Vikings secondary

Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze vs. a Vikings secondary that graded out worst on the roster

Edge: Bears

Williams opened with 269 passing and 65 rushing yards, four total touchdowns and a 124.1 rating ([chicagobears.com](https://www.chicagobears.com/news/game-recap-bears-offense-shines-in-season-opening-win-over-panthers)). Odunze was a non-factor by volume — two catches on three targets for 52 yards, crowded out by a game script that produced six rushing touchdowns — and is widely flagged for positive regression at home in Week 2 ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/bears-rome-odunze-little-volume-in-week-1-rout/)). Minnesota's secondary drew a D grade after allowing Jordan Love 387 yards and two touchdowns with four completions of 30-plus yards, with Harrison Smith still working back from injury ([SI](https://www.si.com/nfl/vikings/onsi/grading-every-vikings-position-group-in-sunday-s-39-22-win-over-packers-01m2e6zhj4hc)). Minnesota's listed outside corners are Isaiah Rodgers and Byron Murphy Jr. ([depth chart](https://www.vikings.com/news/depth-chart-nfl-regular-season-2026)).

Williams Week 1
269 pass yds, 65 rush yds, 4 total TD, 124.1 rating
Odunze Week 1
2 rec on 3 targets, 52 yds
Vikings Week 1 pass defense
387 yds, 2 TD allowed to Jordan Love

Source: chicagobears.com game recap

What this read does not know

  • No official Friday game-status designations were published as of Sept 17. Every Bears and Vikings player on this week's report is carried with practice participation only (DNP/LP/FP), not Out/Doubtful/Questionable. The brief supplied to this research described Swift, Monangai and Murray as QUESTIONABLE; that designation could not be confirmed in any primary source. What is confirmed is that Swift (ankle/knee) and Monangai (hamstring) were limited both Wednesday and Thursday, and Murray (concussion) was limited both days ([vikings.com](https://www.vikings.com/news/injury-report-week-2-chicago-bears-2026), [NBC Sports PFT](https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/dandre-swift-kyle-monangai-remain-limited-on-thursday-injury-report)). The Friday report is the release that resolves this.
  • Whether Murray clears concussion protocol. O'Connell explicitly deferred to Friday and to medical staff; no clearance has been announced ([A to Z Sports](https://atozsports.com/nfl/minnesota-vikings-news/vikings-kyler-murray-injury-update-concussion-protocol-concerns/)). Wentz is the expectation, not a confirmed start.
  • Conflicting depth-chart orderings at Vikings QB. The vikings.com Week 1 depth chart lists Murray first, then Wentz, then McCarthy ([vikings.com](https://www.vikings.com/news/depth-chart-nfl-regular-season-2026)); the brief supplied to this research described Wentz as listed first. No source was found showing an official flip to Wentz atop the chart.
  • Brian O'Neill's availability at right tackle. He was limited Wednesday and did not practice Thursday (knee) with no designation yet ([vikings.com](https://www.vikings.com/news/injury-report-week-2-chicago-bears-2026)). If he sits, rookie Caleb Tiernan is the listed backup, but no reporting confirms a starting plan.
  • Cornerback side assignments could not be confirmed for either team. No source located specifies which Bears corner plays left versus right, nor which Vikings corner plays which side. Jaylon Johnson described the Jefferson assignment as a team-wide responsibility rather than a shadow job, which cuts against assuming he travels ([Heavy](https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/chicago-bears/jaylon-johnson-justin-jefferson-no-flaw-bears-vikings/)).
  • Jauan Jennings' status. Minnesota's listed WR3 did not practice Wednesday or Thursday for personal reasons, with no return timeline reported ([vikings.com](https://www.vikings.com/news/injury-report-week-2-chicago-bears-2026)).
  • Bears left tackle stability. Braxton Jones won the Week 1 job out of a live camp competition that included Jedrick Wills, Theo Benedet and Kiran Amegadjie, and Ozzy Trapilo — listed on this week's report with a knee issue — was earlier expected to miss the season ([chicagobears.com](https://www.chicagobears.com/news/bears-2026-training-camp-position-preview-offensive-line), [vikings.com injury report](https://www.vikings.com/news/injury-report-week-2-chicago-bears-2026)). The two reports are not obviously reconcilable and Trapilo's actual status is unclear.
  • Andrew Van Ginkel's chest injury. Limited Wednesday and Thursday with no designation ([vikings.com](https://www.vikings.com/news/injury-report-week-2-chicago-bears-2026)); he is half of Minnesota's edge rotation and the pressure unit's projection depends on him.
  • Week 1 sample size. Every efficiency number cited here comes from one game against a specific opponent — Green Bay for Minnesota, Carolina for Chicago. Neither Vikings' 66-rush-yards-allowed nor Bears' 5.7-yards-per-carry-allowed should be treated as a stable rate.
  • Weather. One outlet lists roughly 70°F with showers and thunderstorms likely at kickoff ([The Viking Age](https://thevikingage.com/minnesota-vikings-chicago-bears-week-2-tracker-injury-updates-predictions-storylines)); this is a forecast from three days out and no official game-day weather report exists yet. Wet conditions would matter disproportionately to the two units that lean hardest on volume rushing.
  • Reported Week 1 game date discrepancy. Sources variously date the Vikings-Packers opener to September 13 and September 15, 2026; September 13 appears correct given the Sunday slate, but the conflict is noted rather than resolved.

Reporting verified 2026-09-18. Further sources: chicagobears.com game recap · vikings.com Week 1 power rankings · SI / Inside the Vikings position grades · A to Z Sports Bears Week 1 defensive review · NationalFootballPost — Vikings expected to start Wentz · SI / Bear Digest — what went wrong in Week 1 · vikings.com — How to Watch, Listen to & Stream Vikings at Bears, 2026 Week 2 · NFL.com — Vikings at Bears 2026 REG 2 Game Center · vikings.com — Updated Vikings at Bears Injury Report for Week 2 of 2026 · NBC Sports ProFootballTalk — Swift, Monangai remain limited on Thursday injury report · SI / Bear Digest — Bears injury report: Darnell Wright upgraded, Swift and Monangai status quo · Athlon Sports — Carson Wentz set to start Week 2 as Kyler Murray's concussion lingers

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 2 MODEL LINE
Sun, Sep 20
AWAY MIN +0.6
vs CHI -4.5
HOME CHI +3.2
Fair (books) · CHI 65% home win prob
Kalshi · CHI — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Chicago, IL PASS — no position

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Vikings

35%

fair value (books)

Bears

65%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

39%

Madden 27

61%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Vikings at Bears How to read the Ladder →

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Vikings at BearsSpreadQB HOLD

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    The starting quarterback is not confirmed, so we publish no model number on this game. The market prices are shown as they are.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

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    Vikings at Bears Kalshi spread ladder for Week 2: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Vikings–Bears spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Vikings vs Bears power ratings (Week 2) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Minnesota Vikings+0.614thAverage
    Chicago Bears+3.22ndPlayoff

    Vikings and Bears season outlook

    MINCHI
    Average wins11.610.7
    Make playoffs84%73%
    Win division47%25%
    Win Super Bowl5.1%6.4%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Vikings vs Bears — player pages

    All players →

    Justin Jefferson

    WR

    D'Andre Swift

    RB

    Rome Odunze

    WR

    Colston Loveland

    TE

    Jordan Mason

    RB

    Luther Burden III

    WR

    Caleb Williams

    QB

    Kyle Monangai

    RB

    Jordan Addison

    WR

    Kyler Murray

    QB

    Aaron Jones

    RB

    Jauan Jennings

    WR

    T.J. Hockenson

    TE

    Gavin Bartholomew

    Demond Claiborne

    MIN Vikings D/ST

    Tai Felton

    CHI Bears D/ST

    Kalif Raymond

    Roschon Johnson

    Sam Roush

    Zavion Thomas

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: NFC North math: Vikings at Bears

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Minnesota Vikings 9, Chicago Bears 3 — the graded call is above.

    Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears is a NFC North game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 18. The model has the Bears by 6 (66%) off a +3.2 to +0.6 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC North, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.

    The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Bears grade +0.2 on that side of the ball (7th of 32) against a Vikings offense at -2.4 (30th) — 2.6 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Bears offense (+2.5, 6th) meets the Vikings defense (+2.4, 1st), a 0.1-point gap.

    On the standings side, NFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC North race.

    Season-long, the model can barely split them: 10.7 projected wins for the Bears against 11.6 for the Vikings, favored in 14 and 10 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 14th-hardest on the Bears' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Vikings'. Nothing on the Vikings' schedule projects harder than this one.

    Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 25-23 in the Vikings' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Bears won 19-17 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Bears are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.

    Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favorites went 68%. The 66% on the Bears here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MINCHI, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Full division picture on the NFC North hub.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Vikings vs Bears on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MINCHI
    Market-implied (Bears)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Bears)
    held — QB pending
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 65% for the Bears. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Vikings vs Bears trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueBearsTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig66% 66cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Vikings vs Bears

    Bears Playoff Odds After the Caleb Williams Injury: Is the Kalshi Price a Steal? — video thumbnailShortBears Playoff Odds After the Caleb Williams Injury: Is the Kalshi Price a Steal?Sep 21, 20262026 Win Total Predictions: Bears, Vikings, and More | Fade the Field Ep. 15 — video thumbnail32:082026 Win Total Predictions: Bears, Vikings, and More | Fade the Field Ep. 15Aug 4, 2026

    Vikings vs Bears — frequently asked

    Who won Vikings vs Bears in Week 2?

    Minnesota Vikings 9, Chicago Bears 3 — final, played Sunday, September 20, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bears by 4.5 (65% to win), and the Vikings won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Vikings vs Bears before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Bears by 4.5 points, a 65% win probability over the Vikings. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MINCHI market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    How much does a NFC North result matter here?

    Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC North teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 18. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Bears by 6 on ratings and home field alone.

    How do you take a position on Vikings vs Bears?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MINCHI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Bears at 63c or below, or the Vikings at 33c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Bears host the Vikings?

    Minnesota Vikings visit the Chicago Bears on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at Soldier Field, Chicago, IL.

    What does the model project for the Bears and Vikings this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Bears at 10.7 wins (favored in 14) and the Vikings at 11.6 (favored in 10). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Bears' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Vikings', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Vikings vs Bears?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MINCHI, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Vikings vs Bears on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 2 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MINCHI has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 66% on a team like the Bears?

    68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Bears at 66% over the Vikings sit in that band, off a 6-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Trade this game on Kalshi →Bears hub →Vikings hub →Kalshi NFL hub →Week 2 edge board →NFL predictions hub →

    Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 2 card, market price vs our number. Free.

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    The rematch

    They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Vikings–Bears, Week 18 →

    Next up for each team

    Vikings: Week 3 at BuccaneersModel line →Bears: Week 3 vs EaglesModel line →

    More Week 2 matchups

    Lions at BillsModel: Bills −4Panthers at FalconsModel: Falcons −4Saints at RavensModel: Ravens −5.5Bengals at TexansModel: Texans −4Steelers at PatriotsModel: Patriots −7Packers at JetsModel: Packers −2.5Browns at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −4.5Eagles at TitansModel: Eagles −3Jaguars at BroncosModel: Broncos −0.5Raiders at ChargersModel: Chargers −6.5Seahawks at CardinalsModel: Seahawks −6Commanders at CowboysModel: Cowboys −4.5Dolphins at 49ersModel: 49ers −6.5Colts at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −2.5Giants at RamsModel: Rams −7.5

    Full Week 2 board →Next: NFL Week 3 predictions →

    Same model, inside your AI agent

    The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.

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    Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.

    One of 64 games in the first-quarter report

    Every Week 1–4 game, with the opening and closing line, in one book. Read the report →

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