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Home/NFL/Week 2/Vikings vs Bears
Gridiron EdgeWeek 2 · 2026NFC North rivalry

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

Updated · market price

Sunday, September 20, 2026 · Soldier Field, Chicago, IL

Quick Answer

As of September 15, 2026, Kalshi implies 69% for the Bears in Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears, NFL Week 2 2026, while our market-anchored fair value has the Bears by 6 (69% to win) — a 0.2pp agreement. Inside our floor for a position — no position. The model's own line is Bears by 5.9 against a market line of Bears by 5.5 — a 0.4-point lean toward the Bears, graded separately from any position.

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Kickoff board

Week 2 · 2026-09-15

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Bears moneylineModel 69% vs market 69% on CHI.Market-anchored fair value: CHI 68% (-0.1pp)68.5c69%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

The separation in this division game is on offense, not defense

Minnesota had the better defense last season by a wide margin and it is the team our power ratings grade well behind — because the gap between these two sits almost entirely in the offensive component, where Chicago rates roughly four and a half points clear. The reason is not complicated: the Bears return a top-five protection unit and the quarterback who ran it, while the Vikings open with their fourth different Week 1 starter in four years behind a line that gave up sacks at the second-highest rate in football.

Pressure · Bears protection

Brian Flores vs the quarterback who stopped taking sacks

Close to even

This is the duel the whole game runs through. Flores builds his defense on sending more rushers than anyone else and daring the quarterback to solve it before the ball is out — and Caleb Williams spent 2025 turning himself into the exact profile that plan struggles against. His sack rate fell from 10.8% to 4.1%, the largest single-season improvement by any quarterback since 1970, and he threw interceptions on 1.2% of his attempts, the lowest rate ever recorded by a passer with 1,000-plus career attempts. Watch third-and-medium: if Chicago is getting the ball out on schedule against five and six rushers, Minnesota has lost its best weapon before halftime.

Williams sack rate, 2024 → 2025
10.8% → 4.1%
Williams interception rate, 2025
1.2% — lowest ever at 1,000+ attempts
Bears sacks allowed, 2025
24

Source: Chicago Bears — By the Numbers, 2025 season

Trenches · interior protection

Joe Thuney vs a Minnesota interior that has never done this

Edge: Bears

Thuney won the inaugural Protector of the Year award at NFL Honors, made first-team All-Pro for a third straight season, and did not surrender a sack on 643 pass-blocking snaps. Minnesota's answer inside is the youngest part of its roster: Jalen Redmond, Levi Drake Rodriguez and Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins opened the season as the listed starting three in a 3-4 front, with Caleb Banks and Domonique Orange behind them. Flores manufactures interior pressure with movement and simulated looks rather than with individual wins, which is exactly why this is worth watching rather than assuming — but the personnel edge here is not close.

Thuney 2025 honors
Protector of the Year · 3rd straight first-team All-Pro
Thuney pass-block snaps without a sack allowed
643
Bears interior continuity, 2025
Thuney, Jackson and Dalman started every game

Source: Chicago Bears — 2025 position review: offensive line

Edge rush · Bears left tackle

Braxton Jones vs Dallas Turner

Edge: Vikings

Left tackle is the one genuinely unsettled job on an otherwise excellent Chicago line. Ozzy Trapilo had taken the position over in November and played well before tearing a patellar tendon in the wild-card game; Braxton Jones was named the Week 1 starter after the Bears released Jedrick Wills Jr., with Ben Johnson saying openly that the evaluation continues and Trapilo can have it back when he is ready. Minnesota's pressure package is thinner than it was — Jonathan Greenard was traded to Philadelphia on day two of the draft for two third-round picks — so it comes down to Turner in year three and Andrew Van Ginkel. Behind those two, the listed backups have one career sack between them, which means Minnesota cannot afford either to be off the field.

Turner sacks, 2025
8
Greenard trade
To Philadelphia, April 2026, for two third-round picks
Vikings backup edge rushers, career sacks
1 combined

Source: NFL.com — Vikings trade Jonathan Greenard to the Eagles

Turnovers · Bears secondary

Kyler Murray vs a takeaway defense that lost the men who made the takeaways

Close to even

Chicago finished 29th in yards allowed last season and still won eleven games, because it led the NFL with 33 takeaways against just 11 giveaways — a +22 differential no other team came near. Then it let the people responsible leave. Kevin Byard led the league with seven interceptions and walked in free agency, Jaquan Brisker walked with him, and Nahshon Wright, whose eight takeaways led the NFL, signed with the Jets. Coby Bryant and first-round rookie Dillon Thieneman are the replacements. On the other side, Murray made five starts in 2025 before a foot injury cost him twelve games, and he has never taken a regular-season snap in Kevin O'Connell's offense. Neither the turnover rate nor the quarterback is a settled quantity.

Bears turnover differential, 2025
+22 — 1st in the NFL
Bears takeaways / giveaways, 2025
33 / 11 — 1st in both
Byard interceptions, 2025
7 — led the NFL

Source: Chicago Bears — By the Numbers, 2025 season

Coverage · boundary

Justin Jefferson vs Jaylon Johnson, both healthy for once

Edge: Vikings

Jefferson is coming off the least productive full season of his career and very little of it was on him — Minnesota cycled through three quarterbacks and he still cleared 1,000 yards for a sixth straight year, one of only three players ever to open a career that way. What he did not get was efficiency: 84 catches on 141 targets and two touchdowns. Chicago's counterweight is Johnson, and the Bears' problem in 2025 was availability rather than talent — Johnson played seven regular-season games around groin surgery and nickel Kyler Gordon played three. Both had a full offseason this year, which is the single biggest change to this matchup since November.

Jefferson 2025
84 rec · 141 tgt · 1,048 yds · 2 TD
Jaylon Johnson games played, 2025
7
Kyler Gordon games played, 2025
3

Source: Chicago Bears — Johnson and Gordon back at full strength

Trenches · Vikings protection

Montez Sweat and Gervon Dexter vs the line that could not stay upright

Edge: Bears

Minnesota gave up a sack on 11.03% of its pass plays last season — second-worst in the league, and the highest rate the franchise has posted since 1968. The cause was mostly the training room: 26 different offensive line combinations, Christian Darrisaw starting only ten games and playing several more on a snap limit, and Ryan Kelly limited to eight games and three trips into concussion protocol before retiring. The 2026 group is the same names minus Kelly, with Blake Brandel moving to center and Donovan Jackson in his second year at left guard. Chicago brings Sweat, who had ten sacks, and Dexter, who had six while starting every game — not an elite rush, but one that does not need to be if this line looks like last year's.

Vikings sack rate allowed, 2025
11.03% — 2nd-worst, franchise high since 1968
Offensive line combinations used, 2025
26
Darrisaw starts, 2025
10

Source: Vikings.com — 2025 position recap: offensive line

Run game

Swift and Monangai vs the soft side of a very good defense

Edge: Bears

Minnesota finished second in the NFL against the pass last season and 21st against the run, and Chicago is built to attack exactly that seam. D'Andre Swift ran for 1,087 yards and Kyle Monangai for 783, the only running back pairing in football with both men over 750, and the Bears finished third in rushing at 144.5 yards a game. This is also the structural answer to a heavy-pressure defense: stay ahead of schedule on the ground and Flores gets far fewer of the obvious passing downs his package is designed to punish.

Vikings run defense, 2025
124.1 yds/g — 21st
Vikings pass defense, 2025
158.5 yds/g — 2nd
Vikings total defense, 2025
282.6 yds/g — 3rd

Source: FOX Sports — 2025 NFL defense rankings

Situational · division margin

The last two of these were decided by three points and by two

Close to even

These teams split 2025 and neither game got past one score. Minnesota won the September opener in Chicago 27-24; the Bears took the November rematch in Minneapolis 19-17 on a Cairo Santos 48-yarder as the clock hit zero, set up by a 56-yard Devin Duvernay kickoff return. That is the honest frame for a market this tight — two opponents who know each other, small margins, and a result that has twice come down to the final possession. It is also the reason the special-teams units are worth your attention rather than a footnote.

Week 1 2025, at Chicago
Vikings 27, Bears 24
Week 11 2025, at Minnesota
Bears 19, Vikings 17
Deciding play, Week 11
Santos 48-yard FG at 0:00

Source: ESPN — Bears 19, Vikings 17 (Nov 16, 2025)

What this read does not know

  • This was written on September 10 and neither team has played a 2026 snap. Both open on September 13 — Chicago hosts Carolina, Minnesota visits Green Bay — so nothing in this read reflects 2026 form. Everything here is 2025 evidence plus offseason change.
  • Week 2 injury reports do not exist yet. The first practice participation report for this game lands Wednesday, September 16, and any availability judgement before then is guesswork.
  • Kyler Murray is the largest single unknown on the field. He started five games in 2025 before a foot injury, has never played a regular-season down in Kevin O'Connell's system, and the Vikings have said publicly they are reshaping the offense around his mobility. Nobody — including Minnesota — knows yet what that offense looks like at full speed.
  • Chicago's 2025 defensive value came almost entirely from turnovers, and turnover rates are the least repeatable thing a defense does. With Byard, Brisker and Wright all gone, we have no basis for assuming the 33 takeaways carry forward, and no basis for assuming they collapse either.
  • The Bears' left tackle job is genuinely open. Braxton Jones starts Week 1 with the coaching staff saying the evaluation is ongoing and Ozzy Trapilo, who held the job late last season, working back from a patellar tendon tear. A change between Week 1 and Week 2 is live.
  • Sources disagree on Minnesota's exact 2025 blitz rate — figures between 40% and 49% appear in different outlets covering different seasons — so no blitz percentage is published here. The qualitative point, that Flores sends extra rushers more than any coordinator in the league, is not in dispute.
  • Minnesota named Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones co-starters at running back and has not settled the split, which matters because Chicago's run defense ranked 27th last season and is the most obvious way into it.
  • The Vikings' cornerback room past Byron Murphy Jr. and Isaiah Rodgers is thin and untested, which is a real vulnerability against a three-receiver Chicago set — but it is also untested in both directions, and we have no 2026 snaps to grade it on.

Reporting verified 2026-09-10. Further sources: Chicago Bears — By the Numbers, 2025 season · Chicago Bears — 2025 position review: offensive line · Chicago Bears — 2026 training camp preview: running back · Chicago Bears — Johnson and Gordon back at full strength · Vikings.com — 2025 position recap: offensive line · Vikings.com — Week 1 2026 depth chart · NFL.com — NFC North 2026 training camp preview · NFL.com — Vikings trade Jonathan Greenard to the Eagles · FOX Sports — 2025 NFL defense rankings · ESPN — Justin Jefferson 2025 game log · ESPN — Bears 19, Vikings 17 (Nov 16, 2025) · New York Jets — Jets sign former Bears DB Nahshon Wright

PMP · WK 2 MODEL LINE
Sun, Sep 20
AWAY MIN -2.6
vs CHI -6
HOME CHI +1.4
Model · CHI 69% home win prob
Kalshi · CHI 69¢ yes mid
Edge +0.2pp model − market
📍 Chicago, IL PASS — no position

Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 2 card free, every game priced against our model.

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Vikings

31%

model win prob

Bears

69%

model win prob

Market-anchored fair value: CHI 68% (-0.1pp) Combo Edge Builder →

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →

39%

Madden 27

61%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Vikings at Bears

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Vikings at BearsSpreadPRICEDBuy YES · Bears −1.5 →
0255075100%Bears −1.5Bears +14.5Bears +4.5Bears −1.5Bears −6.5Bears −20.5KALSHIPMP MODEL
Widest gap
🔒
at Bears −1.5
Market
67%
Kalshi · P(YES) at Bears −1.5
PMP Model
🔒
display-calibrated

Priced. The market and the model tell the same story at every rung.

RungMarketModelGap
9 more rungsBears +14.5 → Bears +3.5 · outside our published band, market only
Bears +14.5🔒outside range—NO →
Bears +13.5🔒outside range—NO →
Bears +10.5🔒outside range—NO →
Bears +9.5🔒outside range—NO →
Bears +7.5🔒outside range—NO →
Bears +6.5🔒outside range—NO →
Bears +5.5🔒outside range—NO →
Bears +4.5🔒outside range—NO →
Bears +3.5🔒outside range—NO →
Bears +2.5🔒outside range—NO →
Bears +1.5🔒🔒🔒NO →
Bears −0.5—🔒—not listed
Bears −1.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Bears −2.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Bears −3.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Bears −4.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Bears −5.5🔒——YES →
Bears −6.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Bears −7.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Bears −9.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Bears −10.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Bears −13.5🔒outside range—YES →
4 more rungsBears −14.5 → Bears −20.5 · outside our published band, market only
Bears −14.5🔒outside range—YES →
Bears −16.5🔒——YES →
Bears −17.5🔒——YES →
Bears −20.5🔒——YES →

Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →

Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier
Minnesota Vikings-2.627thBelow Avg
Chicago Bears+1.410thPlayoff

Season outlook

MINCHI
Average wins7.99.3
Make playoffs31%51%
Win division13%28%
Win Super Bowl1.1%3.3%

10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

NFC North math: Vikings at Bears

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears is a NFC North game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 18. The model has the Bears by 6 (69%) off a +1.4 to -2.6 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC North, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.

The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bears offense grades +2.0 (8th of 32) against a Vikings defense at -0.5 (15th) — 2.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Vikings offense (-2.5, 28th) meets the Bears defense (-1.1, 19th), a 1.4-point gap.

On the standings side, NFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC North race.

Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Bears at 8.8 wins (favored in 11 of 17) and the Vikings at 7.2 (favored in 4) — 1.7 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Bears' schedule and the 4th-hardest on the Vikings'.

Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 25-23 in the Vikings' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Bears won 19-17 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Bears are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.

Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 69% on the Bears here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.

Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MINCHI contract implies 69% for the Bears against our 69% — a 0.2-point gap. That is inside our 5-point threshold, so we pass — the market and the model are telling the same story.

Full division picture on the NFC North hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Vikings vs Bears on Kalshi

Kalshi event
KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MINCHI
Market-implied (Bears)
69c · 69%
Our model (Bears)
69%
Model vs market
+0.2pp

Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MINCHI. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 69c on the Bears is an implied 69% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 69%, a 0.2pp agreement. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.

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Where Vikings vs Bears trades

3 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.

VenueBearsTrade
Kalshi69% 69cTrade on Kalshi →
Novig68% 68cOpen Novig →
Polymarketinternational book70% 70cOpen Polymarket →
Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract69% 69cOpen Robinhood →
Coinbasesame Kalshi contract69% 69cOpen Coinbase →
DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
Fanatics Marketsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

Vikings vs Bears — frequently asked

Who is favored in Vikings vs Bears in Week 2?

Our power-rating model picks the Bears by 6 points, a 69% win probability over the Vikings, for a projected score of Bears 25, Vikings 20 on a ratings-implied 45.1-point total. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MINCHI market implies 69% for the Bears — a 0.2pp agreement with the model.

How much does a NFC North result matter here?

Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC North teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 18. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Bears by 6 on ratings and home field alone.

How do you take a position on Vikings vs Bears?

The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MINCHI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Bears YES is quoted around 69c against our 69% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

When and where do the Bears host the Vikings?

Minnesota Vikings visit the Chicago Bears on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at Soldier Field, Chicago, IL.

What does the model project for the Bears and Vikings this season?

Across all 17 games the model projects the Bears at 8.8 wins (favored in 11) and the Vikings at 7.2 (favored in 4). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Bears' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Vikings', by model win probability.

What are the Kalshi odds for Vikings vs Bears?

Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MINCHI. The Bears YES contract sits around 69c, which is an implied 69% — against our model's 69%. That is a 0.2pp agreement, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.

Can you trade Vikings vs Bears on Kalshi?

Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 2 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MINCHI. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.

How often does the model win when it is 69% on a team like the Bears?

68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Bears at 69% over the Vikings sit in that band, off a 6-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?

Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

Is Bears moneyline worth a position?

Our model puts it at 69% against a market price implying 69%, an edge of +0.2 points. Model 69% vs market 69% on CHI. We pass — no position.

Trade this game on Kalshi →Bears hub →Vikings hub →Kalshi NFL hub →Week 2 edge board →NFL predictions hub →

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The rematch

They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Vikings–Bears, Week 18 →

More Week 2 matchups

Lions at BillsBills −4
Panthers at FalconsFalcons −4
Saints at RavensRavens −5.5
Bengals at TexansTexans −4
Steelers at PatriotsPatriots −7
Packers at JetsPackers −2.5
Browns at BuccaneersBuccaneers −4.5
Eagles at TitansEagles −3
Jaguars at BroncosBroncos −0.5
Raiders at ChargersChargers −6.5
Seahawks at CardinalsSeahawks −6
Commanders at CowboysCowboys −4.5
Dolphins at 49ers49ers −6.5
Colts at ChiefsChiefs −2.5
Giants at RamsRams −7.5

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