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Home/NFL/Week 1/Falcons vs Steelers
Gridiron EdgeWeek 1 · 2026

Atlanta Falcons 13, Pittsburgh Steelers 20

Updated · market price

Sunday, September 13, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, September 13, 2026): Atlanta Falcons 13, Pittsburgh Steelers 20 — NFL Week 1, 2026. Our pre-game model had the Steelers by 2.5 (57% to win); the Steelers won, so that call hit. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

Settled

Atlanta Falcons 13, Pittsburgh Steelers 20Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game model had the Steelers by 2.5 (57% to win). The Steelers won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Steelers: +8c — we archived the Steelers at 63c on Sep 7; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 71c on Sep 12. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 2 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board

Week 1 · 2026-09-15

1 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 7.0pp on Steelers moneyline.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Steelers moneylineModel 57% vs market 50% on PIT.50c57%Lean3.5%

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Pittsburgh 20, Atlanta 13: three and a half points of steam, and the steam was right

The largest line move on the early slate. Pittsburgh opened -3 and closed -6.5 while the total fell from 42.5 to 40.5, with Tua Tagovailoa ruled out for Atlanta with an oblique injury and Cooper Rush starting. Pittsburgh won by seven on a T.J. Watt pick-six, and our position was on the side the market spent three days leaving behind.

Falcons 13—Steelers 20

Final✓ Call hit

This is the worst-priced position in the Week 1 book and the ledger row says why in one field: unanchored is true. Our engine had Pittsburgh at 57.1% against a Kalshi price of 72.5c, called that a 15.5-point gap in Atlanta’s favor, tiered it MODERATE and published Atlanta at an entry of 36.5c. Atlanta closed at 27.5c. That is nine cents of negative closing-line value, the second-worst of the week, on a position that then lost the game. The model was not merely on the wrong side; it was on the wrong side of a line that was actively running away from it, because the market was repricing a quarterback change our number had not absorbed. The derived grade above is a hit — the model favored Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh won — and the published position was Atlanta, and that pair is the clearest illustration on the slate of why the two must be reported separately. A moneyline read that agrees with the market and a position that fights it are not the same claim. The unanchored flag on this row is the single most actionable field in the whole Week 1 ledger: an unanchored position against a book that has moved three and a half points should not publish.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Steelers −3 → Steelers −6.5
Total
42.5 → 40.5
Moneyline
ATL +145 / PIT −175 → ATL +240 / PIT −298

The spread moved toward the side that won. The total fell 2 to 40.5; the game landed on 33.

How it happened

Q1

Atlanta played without Tagovailoa and the line knew first

Tua Tagovailoa was listed out with an oblique injury and Cooper Rush started. The market had already moved: Pittsburgh from -3 to -6.5 and the total from 42.5 down to 40.5, a repricing of both the side and the scoring environment. Rush threw a twenty-three-yard touchdown to Bijan Robinson in the first quarter and Atlanta did not reach the end zone again.

Line move
Pittsburgh -3 to -6.5
Total move
42.5 to 40.5
Atlanta touchdowns after Q1
0

ESPN box score — Falcons at Steelers

Q4

T.J. Watt intercepted it and ran thirty-five yards with it

Pittsburgh led 13-10 with fifteen seconds gone in the fourth when Watt picked off Rush and returned it thirty-five yards for the score that decided the game. It was one of two Atlanta turnovers, alongside a Jaquan Brisker interception.

Watt
1 INT returned 35 yards for TD
Score after
Pittsburgh 20, Atlanta 10
Atlanta turnovers
2

ESPN box score — Falcons at Steelers

Q4

Thirty-three combined points on a closing total of 40.5

Neither offense reached 270 yards. Atlanta averaged 4.2 a play and Pittsburgh 4.1. The two teams went a combined five of twenty-five on third down and Atlanta took nine penalties for ninety-six yards. The under was the correct read and the market had already found it, taking two points off the total before kickoff.

Combined points
33 on a 40.5 closing total
Third down
Atlanta 2-12, Pittsburgh 3-13
Total yards
Pittsburgh 264, Atlanta 238

ESPN box score — Falcons at Steelers

Q2

Aaron Rodgers threw forty times for 221 and one touchdown

Rodgers averaged 5.5 an attempt, took two sacks and threw a six-yard score to Pat Freiermuth for the only Pittsburgh offensive touchdown. DK Metcalf saw ten targets and caught four for forty. Pittsburgh ran for fifty-eight yards and won anyway, on a defensive score and two Chris Boswell field goals.

Rodgers
24/40, 221 yards, 1 TD, 5.5 yards per attempt
Metcalf
4 receptions on 10 targets, 40 yards
Pittsburgh rushing
58 yards

ESPN box score — Falcons at Steelers

What this recap does not know

  • The Kalshi position on Atlanta (entry 36.5c, close 27.5c, CLV -9c, tier MODERATE, 15.5pp edge, unanchored true) is read from nfl_weekly_edges; result and pnl_cents were null at publication. The loss is derived from the final score.
  • Whether our pre-game probability accounted for Tagovailoa being out is not established. The unanchored flag says the position was not centred on a market fair line; it does not by itself prove the injury was unmodelled.
  • The Cooper Rush UNDER 0.5 passing touchdowns call (STRONG, run 2026w01-20260912T222210Z-121a58) resolved against us — he threw one — but the full Atlanta and Pittsburgh prop set is not graded in this entry.
  • All game facts come from a single source, the ESPN box score and scoring summary. No post-game quotes were obtained.
  • The Kalshi close quoted is the last archived pre-kickoff snapshot.

Reporting verified 2026-09-13. Further sources: ESPN box score — Falcons at Steelers · ESPN game page — Falcons at Steelers · ESPN — Week 1 highlights: best plays, moments, touchdowns

The trench read: Pittsburgh's defense meets a Falcons team that lost its quarterback twice this week

Atlanta walks in without its top two pass rushers and now without its top two quarterbacks — Cooper Rush starts Sunday. The page above still has this closer than the market does, largely on the strength of Atlanta's offensive line and Bijan Robinson. This is a game where the trenches and the quarterback story pull in opposite directions.

Falcons QB

Cooper Rush starts — not Tua Tagovailoa, not Michael Penix Jr.

Edge: Steelers

Atlanta released Kirk Cousins in March, signed Tagovailoa, and he won the job in camp — then aggravated an oblique injury in Thursday's practice and was ruled out Friday. Penix, still recovering from a November 2025 ACL tear, was never cleared to start and is also out. Rush, a career 9–7 starter, makes his first Atlanta start against the head coach he used to back up in Dallas, Mike McCarthy.

Tua Tagovailoa (oblique)
OUT — ruled out Friday
Michael Penix Jr. (ACL, Nov 2025)
OUT
Cooper Rush, career as a starter
9–7

Source: Steelers.com — Week 1 injury report (Falcons)

Falcons defensive line · Steelers offensive line

Atlanta's pass rush is close to non-existent right now

Edge: Steelers

James Pearce Jr., who led the team in pressures as a rookie, is suspended for the first eight games. Jalon Walker, Atlanta's highest-graded returning lineman, is out for the season with a torn ACL. Entering the year, PFF ranks what is left as the worst defensive line in the league. Aaron Rodgers should have time.

James Pearce Jr.
suspended 8 games — 45 pressures in 2025
Jalon Walker
out for season — ACL
ATL defensive line rank, 2026 (PFF)
32nd

Source: PFF — 2026 NFL defensive line rankings

Steelers defensive line · Falcons offensive line

The flip side: Pittsburgh's front vs Atlanta's offensive line

Edge: Steelers

T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig each graded well with forty-plus pressures apiece last season, and PFF ranks the unit third in the league. Atlanta answers with a genuinely good line — top ten by Sharp Football — that brought back the second-highest share of its snaps of any line in the league. Closer than the rest of this game would suggest, and the reason the page above does not have it as a rout.

PIT defensive line rank, 2026 (PFF)
3rd
ATL offensive line snap continuity
80.4% — 2nd-highest
ATL offensive line rank (Sharp Football)
10th

Source: Yahoo Sports — Falcons offensive line ranked among the best

Steelers CB1 · Falcons WR1

Joey Porter Jr.'s back — and his contract — vs Drake London

Close to even

Porter allowed no touchdowns in man coverage last season with opponents completing half their throws at him, and he would normally shadow London. He is in a contract-extension standoff, missed about a month with a back injury, was limited all three days this week and is officially questionable. If he sits, Asante Samuel Jr. — a smaller, slot-suited corner — is a real downgrade on London specifically.

Porter (back)
questionable — limited Wed/Thu/Fri
Porter in man coverage, 2025
0 TD allowed · 50% completion

Source: Steelers Now — Porter could miss Week 1 with or without a new deal

Falcons run offense · Steelers run defense

Bijan Robinson vs Pittsburgh's front — the closest individual battle in the game

Close to even

PFF has Atlanta's running back room as the best in the league behind Robinson, who was a two-way threat all of last season. He runs behind that top-ten line into the third-ranked defensive line in football. Strength on strength, not a mismatch in either direction — and with Rush under center it is the part of Atlanta's offense most likely to carry the load.

Robinson, 2025
1,478 rush yds · 820 rec yds
ATL running back unit rank (PFF)
1st

Source: PFF — running back unit rankings, Falcons top the list

Steelers QB · receivers

Aaron Rodgers, in his stated final season, with a new $59M weapon

Edge: Steelers

Rodgers has said 2026 is his last year. Michael Pittman Jr. arrived by trade from Indianapolis on a three-year extension to pair with DK Metcalf outside, against an Atlanta secondary with solid continuity in Jessie Bates III and rookie Xavier Watts — but almost no pass rush in front of it to shorten Rodgers' clock.

Rodgers
2026 confirmed as final season
Pittman
3 yr / $59M extension after trade from IND

Source: NFL.com — Michael Pittman Jr. traded to Steelers

What this read does not know

  • Porter's status is the single biggest swing variable in the game. As of Friday, Sept 11, he is questionable and was limited all week; a game-day decision is the likeliest outcome.
  • No outlet confirmed a cornerback-to-receiver assignment for Atlanta's A.J. Terrell against Metcalf and Pittman.
  • Tagovailoa was only ruled out Friday. Any market, preview or projection built before then on him starting — including some still circulating — is stale.
  • Steelers safety DeShon Elliott is on injured reserve for at least four games, pushing Jalen Ramsey into more slot and nickel work than usual. How that changes Pittsburgh's coverage rules was not independently confirmed.
  • Our own prop model is under a publication block for pass-yards and receiving-yards legs this week — the passing and receiving sides of the same run do not reconcile. No projection-based passing or receiving call appears anywhere in this read for that reason.

Reporting verified 2026-09-11. Further sources: Steelers.com — Week 1 injury report (Falcons) · The Falcoholic — Tua Tagovailoa ruled out for Sunday · Steelers Depot — Cooper Rush to start against Steelers · Steelers Depot — first depth chart of the 2026 regular season · PFF — 2026 NFL defensive line rankings · Behind the Steel Curtain — Steelers will face a depleted Falcons pass rush · Still Curtain — Asante Samuel Jr. as Porter insurance

PMP · WK 1 MODEL LINE
Sun, Sep 13
AWAY ATL -0.4
vs PIT -2.5
HOME PIT -0.5
Model · PIT 57% home win prob
Kalshi · PIT 50¢ yes mid
Edge +7.1pp model − market
📍 Pittsburgh, PA PASS — no edge

Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 1 card free, every game priced against our model.

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Falcons

43%

model win prob

Steelers

57%

model win prob

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →

44%

Madden 27

56%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Falcons at Steelers

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Falcons at SteelersSpreadONE STRIKE PRICED
0255075100%Steelers −0.5Steelers −4.5Steelers −14.5KALSHIPMP MODEL
Widest gap
—
one strike priced
Market
—
Kalshi · P(YES)
PMP Model
—
display-calibrated
Model pending

Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.

RungMarketModelGap
Steelers −0.5—🔒—not listed
Steelers −1.5—🔒—not listed
Steelers −2.5—🔒—not listed
Steelers −3.5—🔒—not listed
Steelers −4.5—🔒—not listed
Steelers −6.5—🔒—not listed
Steelers −7.5—🔒—not listed
Steelers −9.5—outside range—not listed
3 more rungsSteelers −10.5 → Steelers −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
Steelers −10.5—outside range—not listed
Steelers −13.5—outside range—not listed
Steelers −14.5—outside range—not listed

Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →

Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier
Atlanta Falcons-0.416thAverage
Pittsburgh Steelers-0.517thAverage

Season outlook

ATLPIT
Average wins8.18.7
Make playoffs41%47%
Win division30%24%
Win Super Bowl2.3%2.3%

10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

Reading the Week 1 line on Falcons–Steelers

Week 1 is the widest-error week of the season for every model, ours included — nothing about 2026 is on tape yet, and the ratings are priors, not measurements. With that stated plainly: the Steelers rate -0.5 (17th), the Falcons -0.4 (16th), and the model opens on the Steelers by 2.5, 57% to win. Every number on this page will move more between now and kickoff than it will in any week that follows.

Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.3 projected wins for the Steelers against 8.6 for the Falcons, favored in 10 and 8 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 14th-hardest on the Steelers' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Falcons'.

No unit matchup in this game separates by even a point on our scale. The Steelers grade -0.6 on offense (21st of 32) and -0.4 on defense (12th); the Falcons +0.2 (19th) and -0.7 (17th). Evenly-graded units on both sides of the ball is exactly the profile that produces a model line built from nothing but home field.

One team has owned this series: the Steelers are 5-1 in 7 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Steelers won 18-10 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Steelers are 4-0. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Steelers at 57% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13ATLPIT contract implies 50% for the Steelers against our 57% — a 7.1-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Steelers as the value side.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Falcons vs Steelers on Kalshi

Kalshi event
KXNFLGAME-26SEP13ATLPIT
Market-implied (Steelers)
50c · 50%
Our model (Steelers)
57%
Model vs market
+7.1pp

This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game model number was 57% for the Steelers. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

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Where Falcons vs Steelers trades

2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.

VenueSteelersTrade
Kalshi50% 50cTrade on Kalshi →
Novig73% 73cOpen Novig →
Polymarketno captured price for this game — international bookSign-up offer →
Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract50% 50cOpen Robinhood →
Coinbasesame Kalshi contract50% 50cOpen Coinbase →
DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
Fanatics Marketsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

Falcons vs Steelers — frequently asked

Who won Falcons vs Steelers in Week 1?

Atlanta Falcons 13, Pittsburgh Steelers 20 — final, played Sunday, September 13, 2026; our pre-game model had the Steelers by 2.5 (57% to win), and the Steelers won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

Who did the model favor in Falcons vs Steelers before kickoff?

Before kickoff our power-rating model favored the Steelers by 2.5 points, a 57% win probability over the Falcons. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13ATLPIT market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

How reliable is a Week 1 model line?

Less reliable than any other week, and we would rather say so. The -0.5 / -0.4 ratings behind the 2.5-point line are preseason priors built from prior-season performance and roster change — no 2026 snaps are in them. Week 1 is the point of maximum uncertainty for the model and for the market, which is also why prices move most in it.

How do you take a position on Falcons vs Steelers?

The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13ATLPIT on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Steelers YES is quoted around 50c against our 57% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

When and where do the Steelers host the Falcons?

Atlanta Falcons visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, September 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 1, at Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA.

What does the model project for the Steelers and Falcons this season?

Across all 17 games the model projects the Steelers at 8.3 wins (favored in 10) and the Falcons at 8.6 (favored in 8). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Steelers' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Falcons', by model win probability.

What are the Kalshi odds for Falcons vs Steelers?

Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP13ATLPIT. The Steelers YES contract sits around 50c, which is an implied 50% — against our model's 57%. That is a 7.1pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.

Could you trade Falcons vs Steelers on Kalshi?

This game has been played, so the Week 1 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP13ATLPIT has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

How often does the model win when it is 57% on a team like the Steelers?

57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Steelers at 57% over the Falcons sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

Is Steelers moneyline worth a position?

Our model puts it at 57% against a market price implying 50%, an edge of +7.0 points. Model 57% vs market 50% on PIT. We rate it lean, sized at 3.5% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.

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More Week 1 matchups

Patriots at SeahawksSeahawks −2.5
49ers at RamsRams −4
Bears at PanthersBears −0.5
Buccaneers at BengalsBengals −2.5
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Bills at TexansTexans −0.5
Ravens at ColtsColts −1.5
Browns at JaguarsJaguars −7.5
Jets at TitansTitans −3
Cardinals at ChargersChargers −5.5
Dolphins at Raiderseven
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