New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Patriots by 0 in New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL Week 3 2026 — 50% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 2.7 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NEJAC yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Jaguars at 45c or below (or Patriots at 45c or below) is where the model would take a position.
NE
+5.4
JAX
+2.7
Patriots
50%
model win prob
Jaguars
50%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NEJAChasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Jaguars at 45c or below, or the Patriots at 45c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Patriots–Jaguars is a coin flip on our numbers
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Jaguars rate +2.7 (6th of 32), the Patriots +5.4 (2nd) — 2.7 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 50%/50%, and this rates as the 2nd-closest game of the 16 in Week 3. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Jaguars at 9.5 wins (favored in 11 of 17) and the Patriots at 11.0 (favored in 15) — 1.5 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 6th-hardest game on the Jaguars' schedule and the 3rd-hardest on the Patriots'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Patriots offense grades +3.9 (4th of 32) against a Jaguars defense at 0.0 (9th) — 3.9 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Jaguars offense (+1.8, 9th) meets the Patriots defense (+1.3, 6th), a 0.5-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jaguars grade +0.9, 3rd in the league, against +0.2 (27th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
One team has owned this series: the Patriots are 6-2 in 8 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 5 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2024: Jaguars won 32-16 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Jaguars are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 10 Jacksonville home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 86°F and the median wind 7 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Patriots at 50% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NEJAC is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 50% / 50% — the tradable window is narrow: Jaguars at 45c or below, Patriots at 45c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Patriots vs Jaguars — frequently asked
Who is favored in Patriots vs Jaguars in Week 3?
Our power-rating model favors the Patriots by 0 points, a 50% win probability over the Jaguars. The Jaguars rate 6th of 32 (+2.7) and the Patriots 2nd (+5.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NEJAC yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Jaguars (+2.7, 6th) and Patriots (+5.4, 2nd) are only 2.7 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 50%/50%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Patriots vs Jaguars?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NEJAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jaguars at 45c or below, or the Patriots at 45c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Jaguars host the Patriots?
New England Patriots visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, September 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 3, at EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL.
What does the model project for the Jaguars and Patriots this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Jaguars at 9.5 wins (favored in 11) and the Patriots at 11.0 (favored in 15). This game ranks 6th-hardest on the Jaguars' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Patriots', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 50% on a team like the Patriots?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Patriots at 50% over the Jaguars sit in that band, off a 0-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.