New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, September 27, 2026 · EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL

Patriots

44%

model win prob

Jaguars

56%

model win prob

Model line

Jaguars −2

Kalshi (Jaguars)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Jaguars — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

New England Patriots+3.32ndPlayoff

Jacksonville Jaguars+2.74thPlayoff

The prediction-market read

In Week 3, the New England Patriots travel to face the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Jaguars 4th of 32 (Playoff tier, +2.7) and the Patriots 2nd (Playoff tier, +3.3). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Jaguars by 2 — a 56% win probability for the Jaguars.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 56% (Jaguars) / 44% (Patriots) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Patriots vs Jaguars — frequently asked

Who is favored in Patriots vs Jaguars in Week 3?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Jaguars by 2 points and gives them a 56% win probability over the Patriots. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Patriots vs Jaguars?

Home win probability 56% (Jaguars), away 44% (Patriots). That comes from a power-rating differential of -0.6 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Jaguars rate 4th of 32 (Playoff tier), the Patriots 2nd (Playoff tier).

Can you trade Patriots vs Jaguars on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.