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Home/NFL/Week 3/Patriots vs Jaguars
Gridiron EdgeWeek 3 · 2026

New England Patriots 6, Jacksonville Jaguars 35

Final. Jaguars' next game: Jaguars vs Colts, Week 8 →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, September 27, 2026 · EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, September 27, 2026): New England Patriots 6, Jacksonville Jaguars 35 — NFL Week 3, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Jaguars by 2.5 (59% to win); the Jaguars won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Jaguars at 60c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

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Settled

New England Patriots 6, Jacksonville Jaguars 35Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Jaguars by 2.5 (59% to win). The Jaguars won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Jaguars: +2c — we archived the Jaguars at 57c on Sep 21; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 60c on Sep 27. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 4 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Every game · Week 3

The best play from every Week 3 game, and where to get in

This game: Trevor Lawrence under 2 TD passes (NO), rest 50¢ on a thin book.

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 3 · 2026-09-28

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Patriots moneylineModel 41% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 40% on NE — kept as the pre-game record.40c41%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Jacksonville 35, New England 6: three Lawrence touchdown passes, three Maye turnovers, and a fourth-quarter benching

Trevor Lawrence threw touchdowns to Josh Cameron, Jakobi Meyers and — on a fingertip catch — Parker Washington, Jacksonville scored on all five of its red-zone trips, and Drake Maye lost a fumble with nobody near him, threw a third-and-goal interception to Travis Hunter at the 2 and another straight to Jarrian Jones before Mike Vrabel pulled him. Maye has one touchdown pass and six interceptions in three games for last season’s AFC champion. Liam Coen is the first coach since Matt LaFleur to win 15 of his first 20.

Patriots 6—Jaguars 35

Final✓ Call hit

The chip grades the stored probability, which had Jacksonville at 58.8% — the market’s number, anchored at weight zero from a 2.5-point Jaguars line — and Jacksonville won, so it reads a hit. The model’s own read was Jacksonville by 0.4, a 2.1-point lean toward New England at WATCH, and Jacksonville won by 29; the lean was wrong and the page published it only in points. The position in the ledger was the Jaguars, and it is the only one of the nine moneyline positions on this Sunday’s early and late windows that cashed: 2026_03_NE_JAX_moneyline, HIGH, Jaguars YES at 55.5c on Thursday 2026-09-17 (12:03 UTC), the anchored 58.75% against a Kalshi price of 54.5c, a 4.25-point edge to Jacksonville, closing at 59.5c for a CLV of plus 4c. Like Week 2’s Denver and Washington rows, that is a books-anchored probability against the Kalshi price with the model’s own lean on the other team, and this one landed on the right side. The article’s call did not. Saturday it took Lawrence under two touchdown passes, the NO at 51c, PLAY, HIGH, rest at 50, walk away above 56; he threw three, and that call is graded a loss at the price it was made. By the final pre-kickoff board that strike had moved to WATCH at MODERATE, so the board’s one visible call on this game was a different one — JAX Bhayshul Tuten under 14.5 receiving yards, HIGH, the YES at 38.5c so the NO cost 61.5c, closing 38.5c, CLV flat — and he caught two for 17. A loss. Twenty-eight WATCH rows went 16-12 and are graded apart; the New England room’s eight went 8-0, which is the sort of number a room produces when its offense scores six points.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Jaguars −1.5 → Jaguars −3
Total
45.5 → 46.5
Moneyline
NE −102 / JAX −118 → NE +130 / JAX −155

The spread moved toward the side that won. The total rose 1 to 46.5; the game landed on 41.

How it happened

Q2

The ball slipped out of Maye’s hand with nobody around him; Cameron scored on the short field

New England had crossed midfield when Maye fumbled — the AP says the ball simply slipped out of his right hand on a play with no defender near him. Jacksonville went 62 yards in ten plays from its own 38 and Lawrence found Cameron from 12 early in the second quarter. Cameron was playing significant snaps in place of Brian Thomas Jr., who had dropped two passes in the loss at Denver. Maye’s day: two fumbles, one lost, two interceptions.

After one
0-0
Cameron
1 rec · 12 yds · 1 TD
Maye
14/25 · 199 yds · 0 TD · 2 INT · 2 fumbles (1 lost)

ESPN — AP recap

Q2

Meyers against his old team, Hunter’s first career interception at the 2, and Little’s 70-yard try that pushed right

Marcus Jones intercepted a tipped Lawrence pass and New England turned it into an Andy Borregales field goal, 7-3. Lawrence went 65 yards in nine plays to Meyers from ten, and Maye drove the Patriots 70 yards to the 2 — where, on third-and-goal, he threw into coverage and Hunter took it for his first career interception. Cam Little then just missed a 70-yard field goal as the half ended, a couple of feet right, with plenty of distance.

Halftime
Jaguars 14, Patriots 3
Meyers
7 rec · 64 yds · 1 TD
Red zone
JAX 5/5 · NE 0/3

ESPN — AP recap

Q3

Borregales missed from 38; Washington’s fingertip catch; Jones’ pick and Rodriguez 18 seconds later

New England opened the half with a 42-yard drive and Borregales missed from 38. Jacksonville then held the ball for 15 plays, 72 yards and 8:42, and Washington made a fingertip catch in the end zone from 17. On the next snap Maye threw directly to cornerback Jones, who returned it 31 yards, and Chris Rodriguez Jr. scored from five 18 seconds later — 28-3, with the Jaguars eight of twelve on third down for the day.

After three
Jaguars 28, Patriots 3
Lawrence
19/29 · 182 yds · 3 TD · 1 INT
Third down
JAX 8/12 · NE 4/12

ESPN — box score

Q4

A backward pass to Chism, a tipped completion to Hollins, three points; then Lawrence knelt at the 1 and Tuten finished it

Facing first-and-30 after back-to-back penalties, Maye threw backward to Efton Chism III, who slipped a tackle and completed a pass to Mack Hollins that Hunter tipped — a 16-yard gain that led to Borregales from 40. Jacksonville answered with a 49-yard drive on which Lawrence took a knee at the 1 to run clock before Tuten scored from a yard out with 8:02 left. Maye gave way to Tommy DeVito. Vrabel: “If it’s not there, I think sometimes you can want it too badly, and we can’t force it.”

Tuten
15 carries · 73 yds · 1 TD
Maye this season
1 TD pass · 6 INT in 3 games (AP)
Turnovers
NE 3 · JAX 1

ESPN — AP recap

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has graded this game’s position: 2026_03_NE_JAX_moneyline graded WIN (plus 44c) at 2026-09-28 00:55 UTC (20:55 ET Sunday), via the canonical settle pass (gridiron_edge/scripts/capture_edge_clv.py --season 2026 --week 3 --mode settle --tables game), run by Cowork once Kalshi had finalized the contracts — the same code the Tue/Wed launchd schedule runs. That grade matches the outcome stated above; the P/L figure is the ledger’s number, not this page’s. The prop rows on this page are not yet graded by the ledger — the Tue/Wed launchd pass owns them (--tables prop was not run) — so every prop grade above is derived from the ESPN box score by script (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W3_SUNDAY_2026/prop-reconciliation-w03-sunday.csv), never by hand; entry_price on a NO or UNDER row is the YES price, so that side’s cost is 100 minus it, and no P/L is summed on this page. If the ledger ever disagrees with anything above, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • The Lawrence passing-touchdown strike was PLAY at HIGH in Saturday evening’s article and WATCH at MODERATE on the 14:40 UTC Sunday board. Why it moved was not read (watch_reason was not inspected). The article’s call is graded at its stated price; the board’s WATCH row is graded apart; neither is folded into the other.
  • The distance of Borregales’ miss (38) and the details of the trick play are the AP’s; ESPN’s drive chart records the possession outcomes only. Little’s attempt is logged as a missed field goal without distance; the 70 is the AP’s.
  • Greg Van Roten (thigh) did not return; Christian Barmore and Carlton Davis III missed snaps and returned. No severity is known.
  • ESPN’s summary carried no weather block. Attendance (42,156) is ESPN’s figure and is not independently confirmed.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price; the entry and close quoted are the ledger’s captures, the DraftKings numbers are ESPN’s archived open and close, and the prop grades are resolutions against the box score, not settlements read off the exchange.

Reporting verified 2026-09-27. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Lawrence throws 3 TD passes as Jaguars rout Patriots and raise more questions about Maye · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line

New England’s interior rush against a Jaguars run game that has not broken 4.7 a carry

Two 1-1 teams whose second weeks pulled in opposite directions: New England held Pittsburgh to three points, Jacksonville lost 20-13 at Denver after opening with a 34-10 win over Cleveland. Both quarterbacks are clean on the injury report — the Patriots’ own report says so explicitly for both. The game is likeliest to be decided in the middle of the Jacksonville offensive line.

Patriots pass rush · Jaguars interior protection

Christian Barmore and Milton Williams against a patched Jaguars interior

Edge: Patriots

Barmore and Williams led the disruption in New England’s 20-3 win over Pittsburgh, and they face a Jacksonville line managing two interior bodies: centre Robert Hainsey (elbow, groin) and Cole Van Lanen (knee) were limited early in the week and back to full in the latest official report. Bhayshul Tuten has 28 carries for 131 yards on the season — 4.7 a carry, respectable but not the kind of number that lets an offense escape obvious passing downs. If Jacksonville is throwing on third-and-long against that interior, the game gets short.

Bhayshul Tuten, two games
28 carries, 131 yds
Jaguars O-line
Hainsey and Van Lanen limited Wednesday, full in the latest report
Patriots Week 2
Won 20-3 at Pittsburgh

Source: PatsFans — Patriots-Jaguars Week 3 keys and key matchups

Jaguars pass offense · Patriots coverage

Parker Washington against a New England secondary that just shut down Pittsburgh

Edge: Jaguars

Washington leads Jacksonville with 12 catches for 181 yards and a touchdown and is the most likely beneficiary if Jakobi Meyers (thumb, limited Wednesday) is compromised. New England’s answer starts with Carlton Davis III, a full participant through a neck issue. The Patriots’ defensive problem this week is elsewhere: Dre’Mont Jones (shoulder) and Craig Woodson (shoulder) both sat out Wednesday, and safety Brenden Schooler (back) was limited.

Parker Washington, two games
12 rec, 181 yds, 1 TD
Jakobi Meyers (thumb)
Limited Wednesday; full and no designation by Friday
Patriots (Thursday)
Dre’Mont Jones, Craig Woodson, Eli Raridon DNP

Source: patriots.com — Week 3 injury report: Patriots at Jaguars

Patriots run offense · Jaguars run defense

Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson against the Jacksonville front seven

Edge: Patriots

New England ran for 136 yards against Pittsburgh’s front last week, which is the template for how this team wants to play — control the down-and-distance, let the interior rush win the rest. The consistency has not been there across both games, and Morgan Moses (foot) was limited on Wednesday at tackle. Jacksonville had no Wednesday DNPs at all, which is the healthiest report of any team in this batch.

Patriots rushing, Week 2
136 yds vs Pittsburgh
Morgan Moses (foot)
Limited Wednesday and in the latest report
Jaguars Wednesday DNPs
None

Source: patriots.com — Week 3 injury report: Patriots at Jaguars

What this read does not know

  • New England’s two Wednesday DNPs on defense did not practise Thursday either. Dre’Mont Jones (shoulder) and Craig Woodson (shoulder) sat again; Jacksonville’s LeQuint Allen Jr. (hip) was limited.
  • New England’s Week 1 result could not be independently sourced in this research — only that the Patriots are 1-1 and beat Pittsburgh 20-3 in Week 2. Treat any characterisation of their season shape accordingly.
  • The matchup judgements above come from one outlet (PatsFans) and were not verified against a second. The injury facts are from the club’s own report and are solid; the who-has-the-edge reads are not.
  • Jakobi Meyers’s thumb looks resolved — full practice and no Friday designation — so Jacksonville’s passing distribution should look like its first two games.
  • We publish no position on this game — the model rows for it sit in held stat families on a run with a systemic one-way lean. See the week’s handoff.

Reporting verified 2026-09-25. Further sources: patriots.com — Week 3 injury report: Patriots at Jaguars · PatsFans — Patriots-Jaguars Week 3 keys and key matchups · steelers.com — Steelers fall to Patriots 20-3 at home · NFL.com — official Week 3 injury report (latest practice participation) · ESPN — NFL injuries, Friday 09-25 designations

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 3 MODEL LINE
Sun, Sep 27
AWAY NE +3.0
vs JAX -2.5
HOME JAX +2.8
Fair (books) · JAX 59% home win prob
Kalshi · JAX — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Jacksonville, FL PASS — no position

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Patriots

41%

fair value (books)

Jaguars

59%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

59%

Madden 27

41%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

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The Ladder — Patriots at Jaguars How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Patriots at JaguarsSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Patriots at Jaguars Kalshi spread ladder for Week 3: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Patriots–Jaguars spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Patriots vs Jaguars power ratings (Week 3) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    New England Patriots+3.04thPlayoff
    Jacksonville Jaguars+2.85thPlayoff

    Patriots and Jaguars season outlook

    NEJAX
    Average wins10.110.5
    Make playoffs74%80%
    Win division41%74%
    Win Super Bowl6.8%7.8%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Patriots vs Jaguars — player pages

    All players →

    A.J. Brown

    WR

    Drake Maye

    QB

    Bhayshul Tuten

    RB

    TreVeyon Henderson

    RB

    Rhamondre Stevenson

    RB

    Parker Washington

    WR

    Brian Thomas Jr.

    WR

    Jakobi Meyers

    WR

    Trevor Lawrence

    QB

    Chris Rodriguez Jr.

    RB

    Hunter Henry

    TE

    Travis Hunter

    WR

    Brenton Strange

    TE

    JAC Jaguars D/ST

    DeMario Douglas

    Eli Raridon

    NE Patriots D/ST

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: Patriots–Jaguars is a coin flip on our numbers

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: New England Patriots 6, Jacksonville Jaguars 35 — the graded call is above.

    The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Patriots rate +3.0 (4th of 32) against +2.8 for the Jaguars (5th) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 0.2-point gap between them, so the model lands at 51% for the Jaguars anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 6th-closest of the 16 games in Week 3, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.

    Season-long, the model can barely split them: 10.5 projected wins for the Jaguars against 10.1 for the Patriots, favored in 12 and 13 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 10th-hardest on the Jaguars' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Patriots'.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Patriots offense grades +3.0 (4th of 32) against a Jaguars defense at -0.2 (11th) — 3.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Jaguars offense (+2.2, 8th) meets the Patriots defense (-0.3, 12th), a 2.5-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jaguars grade +0.8, 2nd in the league, against +0.2 (23rd) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.

    One team has owned this series: the Patriots are 6-2 in 8 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 5 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2024: Jaguars won 32-16 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Jaguars are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 10 Jacksonville home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 86°F and the median wind 7 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Jaguars at 51% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NEJAC, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Patriots vs Jaguars on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NEJAC
    Market-implied (Jaguars)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Jaguars)
    59%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 59% for the Jaguars. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Patriots vs Jaguars trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueJaguarsTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig59% 59cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket.com (international)no captured price for this game — international bookInformational
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Patriots vs Jaguars, Week 3 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/patriots-vs-jaguars-week-03-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

    Watch the breakdown: Patriots vs Jaguars

    FTF E12: 2026 Expert NFL Win Total Predictions: Broncos, Jags and More! — video thumbnail37:40FTF E12: 2026 Expert NFL Win Total Predictions: Broncos, Jags and More!Jul 15, 2026The New England Patriots will win 11 games in 2026 — video thumbnailShortThe New England Patriots will win 11 games in 2026Jul 11, 2026Fade the Field Ep. 11 — video thumbnail37:32Fade the Field Ep. 11Jun 23, 2026

    Patriots vs Jaguars — frequently asked

    Who won Patriots vs Jaguars in Week 3?

    New England Patriots 6, Jacksonville Jaguars 35 — final, played Sunday, September 27, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Jaguars by 2.5 (59% to win), and the Jaguars won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Patriots vs Jaguars before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Jaguars by 2.5 points, a 59% win probability over the Patriots. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NEJAC market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    Why does the model call this a toss-up?

    Because the Jaguars (+2.8, 5th) and Patriots (+3.0, 4th) are only 0.2 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 59%/41%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.

    How do you take a position on Patriots vs Jaguars?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NEJAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jaguars at 57c or below, or the Patriots at 39c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Jaguars host the Patriots?

    New England Patriots visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, September 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 3, at EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL.

    What does the model project for the Jaguars and Patriots this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Jaguars at 10.5 wins (favored in 12) and the Patriots at 10.1 (favored in 13). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Jaguars' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Patriots', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Patriots vs Jaguars?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NEJAC, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Patriots vs Jaguars on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 3 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NEJAC has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 51% on a team like the Jaguars?

    52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Jaguars at 51% over the Patriots sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Patriots moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 41% against a market price implying 40%, an edge of +1.3 points. Model 41% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 40% on NE — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

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    Next up for each team

    Patriots: Week 4 at BillsModel line →Jaguars: Week 4 at BengalsModel line →

    More Week 3 matchups

    Falcons at PackersModel: Packers −6Chargers at BillsModel: Bills −7.5Panthers at BrownsModel: Browns −1.5Jets at LionsModel: Lions −6Texans at ColtsModel: Colts −1.5Chiefs at DolphinsModel: Chiefs −1Titans at GiantsModel: evenBengals at SteelersModel: Steelers −2Seahawks at CommandersModel: Seahawks −8Cardinals at 49ersModel: 49ers −7.5Vikings at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −2.5Ravens at CowboysModel: Ravens −0.5Raiders at SaintsModel: Saints −5Rams at BroncosModel: Rams −0.5Eagles at BearsModel: Eagles −2

    Full Week 3 board →Next: NFL Week 4 predictions →

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