San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers
Thursday, December 17, 2026 · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Chargers by 1.5 in San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers, NFL Week 15 2026 — 54% to win, and Chargers 17th of 32, 49ers 14th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC17SFLAC yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Chargers at 49c or below (or 49ers at 41c or below) is where the model would take a position.
SF
+0.8
LAC
-0.4
49ers
46%
model win prob
Chargers
54%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC17SFLAChasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Chargers at 49c or below, or the 49ers at 41c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Thursday night's number, and what would make it a position
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers kicks off on Thursday — the only game on the schedule that day. The model's read: the Chargers at -0.4 (17th of 32, Average tier) against the 49ers at +0.8 (14th, Average tier), which after home field comes out Chargers by 1.5 and 54% to win.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the 49ers offense grades +2.9 (6th of 32) against a Chargers defense at -0.1 (10th) — 3.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Chargers offense (-0.7, 22nd) meets the 49ers defense (-2.9, 31st), a 2.3-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the 49ers grade +0.9, 4th in the league, against +0.4 (18th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the 49ers offense grades +2.9 (6th of 32) against a Chargers defense at -0.1 (10th) — 3.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Chargers offense (-0.7, 22nd) meets the 49ers defense (-2.9, 31st), a 2.3-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the 49ers grade +0.9, 4th in the league, against +0.4 (18th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.2 projected wins for the Chargers against 8.8 for the 49ers, favored in 9 and 8 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 12th-hardest on the Chargers' schedule and 7th-hardest on the 49ers'.
On the calendar, the 49ers are on a 4-day turnaround and the Chargers are on a 4-day turnaround. The 49ers come in off the Rams, the Chargers off the Raiders. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Chargers at 54% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC17SFLAC is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 54% / 46% — the tradable window is narrow: Chargers at 49c or below, 49ers at 41c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
49ers vs Chargers — frequently asked
Who is favored in 49ers vs Chargers in Week 15?
Our power-rating model favors the Chargers by 1.5 points, a 54% win probability over the 49ers. The Chargers rate 17th of 32 (-0.4) and the 49ers 14th (+0.8); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC17SFLAC yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in 49ers vs Chargers?
49ers offense (+2.9, 6th of 32) against Chargers defense (-0.1, 10th) — 3.0 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the 49ers (+0.9, 4th).
How do you take a position on 49ers vs Chargers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC17SFLAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Chargers at 49c or below, or the 49ers at 41c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Chargers host the 49ers?
San Francisco 49ers visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday, December 17, 2026 — a Thursday game in NFL Week 15, at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA.
What does the model project for the Chargers and 49ers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Chargers at 8.2 wins (favored in 9) and the 49ers at 8.8 (favored in 8). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Chargers' schedule and 7th-hardest on the 49ers', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 54% on a team like the Chargers?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Chargers at 54% over the 49ers sit in that band, off a 1.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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