NFL Week 16 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated · model ratings
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, Kalshi has not listed Week 16 game markets yet, so there is no price to grade a pick against. The model's strongest side of the 16 games is the Patriots at 69% to win.
Every game below carries the model line, win probability, straight-up winner and projected score; picks light up the moment Kalshi opens the markets.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model
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- Texans at Eagles — Model winner: Eagles (58%)
- Packers at Bears — Model winner: Bears (53%)
- Bills at Broncos — Model winner: Bills (50%)
- Rams at Seahawks — Model winner: Seahawks (59%)
- Buccaneers at Falcons — Model winner: Falcons (58%)
- Browns at Ravens — Model winner: Ravens (66%)
- Bengals at Colts — Model winner: Colts (60%)
- Chargers at Dolphins — Model winner: Dolphins (51%)
- Commanders at Vikings — Model winner: Vikings (54%)
- Cardinals at Saints — Model winner: Saints (63%)
- Patriots at Jets — Model winner: Patriots (69%)
- Panthers at Steelers — Model winner: Steelers (61%)
- Titans at Raiders — Model winner: Raiders (51%)
- 49ers at Chiefs — Model winner: Chiefs (53%)
- Jaguars at Cowboys — Model winner: Cowboys (55%)
- Giants at Lions — Model winner: Lions (67%)
All 16 Week 16 games with our DAEPA model win probabilities, the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the Kalshi line and the edge.
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Week 16 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 16 games. Kalshi has not priced this week yet, so favorites and upsets are labelled the moment the markets open.
- Eagles over Texans58%—
- Bears over Packers53%—
- Bills over Broncos50%—
- Seahawks over Rams59%—
- Falcons over Buccaneers58%—
- Ravens over Browns66%—
- Colts over Bengals60%—
- Dolphins over Chargers51%—
- Vikings over Commanders54%—
- Saints over Cardinals63%—
- Patriots over Jets69%—
- Steelers over Panthers61%—
- Raiders over Titans51%—
- Chiefs over 49ers53%—
- Cowboys over Jaguars55%—
- Lions over Giants67%—
Winner = the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability. Kalshi = the mid price of that side’s contract, in cents. An upset is a model winner priced under 50¢; that is a straight-up call, not the play — the play on each game is the edge side in the board above.
Week 16 projected scores
- TexansatEagles18.1–20.738.9
- PackersatBears25.0–25.950.9
- BillsatBroncos24.8–24.249.0
- RamsatSeahawks22.5–25.548.0
- BuccaneersatFalcons21.9–24.646.5
- BrownsatRavens16.7–22.739.5
- BengalsatColts23.3–26.349.6
- ChargersatDolphins22.2–22.244.4
- CommandersatVikings22.3–23.545.8
- CardinalsatSaints20.6–24.645.2
- PatriotsatJets26.3–19.445.7
- PanthersatSteelers20.8–24.044.8
- TitansatRaiders20.2–20.340.5
- 49ersatChiefs25.0–25.850.8
- JaguarsatCowboys25.8–27.553.3
- GiantsatLions20.7–26.847.5
Projected score = the model margin split around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings). The total is a derivation from the power ratings, not a stored engine number; the margin is the same one behind the model line above. One decimal, so a projection is never mistaken for a final score.
NFL Week 16 predictions — frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 16 2026?
Kalshi hasn't listed Week 16 game markets yet, so there is no market price to grade a pick against. The board shows the DAEPA model line and win probability on all 16 games, and the picks light up the minute those markets open.
How are these NFL Week 16 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the model win probability minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means the model has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap is 5 points or more; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who wins straight up in NFL Week 16 2026?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 16 Week 16 games, with its win probability. Eagles over Texans (58%); Bears over Packers (53%); Bills over Broncos (50%); Seahawks over Rams (59%); Falcons over Buccaneers (58%); Ravens over Browns (66%); Colts over Bengals (60%); Dolphins over Chargers (51%); Vikings over Commanders (54%); Saints over Cardinals (63%); Patriots over Jets (69%); Steelers over Panthers (61%); Raiders over Titans (51%); Chiefs over 49ers (53%); Cowboys over Jaguars (55%); Lions over Giants (67%). The winner is the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability; an upset is a model winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where the model and the price disagree by 5 points or more.
What are the projected scores for NFL Week 16?
Projected scores, winner first: Eagles 20.7, Texans 18.1; Bears 25.9, Packers 25.0; Bills 24.8, Broncos 24.2; Seahawks 25.5, Rams 22.5; Falcons 24.6, Buccaneers 21.9; Ravens 22.7, Browns 16.7; Colts 26.3, Bengals 23.3; Dolphins 22.2, Chargers 22.2; Vikings 23.5, Commanders 22.3; Saints 24.6, Cardinals 20.6; Patriots 26.3, Jets 19.4; Steelers 24.0, Panthers 20.8; Raiders 20.3, Titans 20.2; Chiefs 25.8, 49ers 25.0; Cowboys 27.5, Jaguars 25.8; Lions 26.8, Giants 20.7. Each score splits the model margin around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings) — the total is derived from the power ratings, not a stored engine number, which is why scores carry one decimal.
How often are the Week 16 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Model win probabilities from the DAEPA power-rating engine. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.