NFL Week 16 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated Β· model ratings
Quick Answer
As of October 14, 2026, the Week 16 slate is not loaded yet.
Every game below carries the model line, win probability and straight-up winner; picks light up the moment Kalshi opens the markets.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles Β· DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 16 Week 16 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
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- Texans at Eagles β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Packers at Bears β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Bills at Broncos β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Rams at Seahawks β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Buccaneers at Falcons β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Browns at Ravens β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Bengals at Colts β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Chargers at Dolphins β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Commanders at Vikings β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Cardinals at Saints β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Patriots at Jets β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Panthers at Steelers β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Titans at Raiders β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- 49ers at Chiefs β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Jaguars at Cowboys β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Giants at Lions β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
All 16 Week 16 games with the published win probability (fair value (books) once priced), the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the modelβs own line and the edge.
Who's overrated this week? Experts vs. market β β the Kalshi contracts behind every price are on the Kalshi NFL markets board, and the NFL power ratings are the numbers underneath every model line on this page.
Injury report, by unit: which defenses have lost several starters from the same front seven or secondary this week β the defensive injury cluster board.
Live: every Week 16 game where our model and Kalshi disagree enough to call. Full edge board β
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record β
Week 16 primetime, live
Run Week 16 yourself
All tools βWeek 16 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 16 games. Kalshi has not priced this week yet, so favorites and upsets are labelled the moment the markets open. 16 games are held until both starting quarterbacks are confirmed, so they carry no call yet.
- Texans at Eagles Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Packers at Bears Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Bills at Broncos Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Rams at Seahawks Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Buccaneers at Falcons Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Browns at Ravens Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Bengals at Colts Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Chargers at Dolphins Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Commanders at Vikings Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Cardinals at Saints Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Patriots at Jets Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Panthers at Steelers Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Titans at Raiders Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- 49ers at Chiefs Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Jaguars at Cowboys Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Giants at Lions Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
Winner = the side with the higher published win probability. Once Kalshi prices a game that probability is market-anchored β it is the marketβs number, which is why the Model and Kalshi columns sit within a point of each other and why no upset is labelled. Before a market opens it is the modelβs own read. The modelβs separate opinion is the lean, in points, graded on its own and never published as an edge. Kalshi = the mid price of the winnerβs contract, in cents. A straight-up call is not the play β the play on each game is the edge side on its matchup page.
NFL Week 16 predictions β frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 16 2026?
Kalshi hasn't listed Week 16 game markets yet, so there is no market price to grade a pick against. The board shows the DAEPA model line and win probability on all 16 games, and the picks light up the minute those markets open.
How are these NFL Week 16 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the published win probability β the fair value (books) once a game is priced β minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means that number has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54Β’. We only call a pick when the gap clears 2 points net of the book's spread; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who will win each NFL Week 16 game?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 16 Week 16 games, with its win probability. Texans at Eagles (QB pending); Packers at Bears (QB pending); Bills at Broncos (QB pending); Rams at Seahawks (QB pending); Buccaneers at Falcons (QB pending); Browns at Ravens (QB pending); Bengals at Colts (QB pending); Chargers at Dolphins (QB pending); Commanders at Vikings (QB pending); Cardinals at Saints (QB pending); Patriots at Jets (QB pending); Panthers at Steelers (QB pending); Titans at Raiders (QB pending); 49ers at Chiefs (QB pending); Jaguars at Cowboys (QB pending); Giants at Lions (QB pending). The winner is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced); an upset is a winner priced under 50Β’ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls β the play is the side where that number and the price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread.
How often are the Week 16 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game β result, hit or miss, closing-line value β so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Win probabilities are the market-anchored fair value (books) once a game is priced; the modelβs own line is the lean. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only β trade responsibly.