Updated · market price
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, September 13, 2026): Green Bay Packers 22, Minnesota Vikings 39 — NFL Week 1, 2026. Our pre-game model had the Packers by 3 (60% to win); the Vikings won, so that call missed. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Green Bay Packers 22, Minnesota Vikings 39Final
Model call: MISSOur pre-game model had the Packers by 3 (60% to win). The Vikings won — that call missed.
Closing-line value on the Packers: -2c — we archived the Packers at 48c on Sep 7; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 46c on Sep 12. The market moved against our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 2 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
1 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 10.1pp on Packers moneyline.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Green Bay opened as a road favorite and closed a 2.5-point underdog — the largest repricing on the slate. Minnesota trailed 22-10 in the third and scored twenty-nine straight, the last twenty-two of them in the fourth quarter. Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones Sr. both scored on the ground, twenty-seven carries between them, almost exactly split.
Packers 22—Vikings 39
Final✗ Call missedOur loudest miss of the late window, and the market told us so in advance. The model had Minnesota at 39.9% — Green Bay by about three — against a Kalshi price that implied 45.5% for the Packers, and we published Green Bay at an entry of 48c on a 14.6-point gap, tiered STRONG. It closed at 44.5c: three and a half cents against us, on a line that had simultaneously flipped four full points at DraftKings from Green Bay -1.5 to Minnesota -2.5 while the total climbed from 44.5 to 46.5. Two independent venues moved hard onto Minnesota and our number moved onto Green Bay, and Minnesota won by seventeen. There is a second thing to own here that has nothing to do with the number. This page carried a deep-dive card that headlined Jordan Mason as having taken over the Minnesota backfield from Aaron Jones Sr. while its own body described a tandem; the correction filed on September 12 said plainly that Mason is the lead on the ground and Jones through the air, and that they are 1 and 1A. The game agreed with the correction and not with the headline: Mason fifteen carries for fifty-nine and a score, Jones twelve for forty and a score. The role-split fix in the handoff is not housekeeping. It is the difference between a claim this recap has to walk back and one it can stand on.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that won. The total rose 2 to 46.5; the game landed on 61.
Q1
Trey Smack opened with a fifty-nine-yard field goal and Jordan Love found Watson for eighty-one on the next possession, though the extra point failed. Watson finished with six catches for 147 and two scores. Green Bay led 12-3 in the second quarter and 22-10 in the third.
Q4
T.J. Hockenson scored from sixteen with two minutes left in the third. Then Aaron Jones Sr. from three with a two-point conversion to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Mason from one, and Jefferson from nine inside a three-minute stretch of the fourth. Green Bay did not score in the final quarter.
Q4
Mason took fifteen carries for fifty-nine with a long of twenty-eight; Jones took twelve for forty. Each scored a rushing touchdown in the fourth-quarter run, and Jones was targeted in the passing game as well. This is the tandem the correction described, not a starter and a backup.
Q4
Wentz went twelve of nineteen for 133 and three scores for a 123.5 rating after Kyler Murray left the game questionable with a concussion having thrown an interception. Minnesota gained 239 yards to Green Bay’s 419 and won by seventeen, on the back of eight-of-fifteen third downs and four-for-four in the red zone.
Reporting verified 2026-09-13. Further sources: ESPN box score — Packers at Vikings · ESPN game page — Packers at Vikings · ESPN — Week 1 highlights: best plays, moments, touchdowns
Micah Parsons is a Packer now, not a Cowboy — but he is on the PUP list off a torn ACL and will not play, and Rashan Gary was traded to Dallas. Green Bay's offensive line, one of the lowest-graded units in the league, has to hold up anyway against a Brian Flores defense built to blitz, while Kyler Murray makes his Minnesota debut against the coordinator who knows him best.
Packers offensive line · Vikings pressure
PFF ranks Green Bay's offensive line near the bottom of the league and writes that only right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele projects as a reliably strong starter — and both he and left guard Aaron Banks carry Questionable tags with knee issues on the final report. Both got three limited practices in; Banks has called himself a game-time decision. They face a Flores defense that blitzes on early downs more than almost anyone, a scheme built to punish exactly this kind of uncertainty up front.
Packers pass rush · Vikings offensive line
Micah Parsons, acquired from Dallas in August 2025, is on reserve/PUP recovering from the torn ACL that ended his season and is expected to miss at least four games. Rashan Gary, who led the returning group in sacks, was traded to Dallas this offseason. That leaves Lukas Van Ness as the presumptive lead rusher against a Vikings line PFF grades in the top half, anchored by left tackle Christian Darrisaw, who took only a rest day this week and carries no injury designation.
Packers secondary · Vikings WR1
Jaire Alexander was released, and Green Bay now leans on Keisean Nixon and second-year corner Brandon Cisse on the outside. Jefferson is coming off a down 2025 by his own standard — his per-game yardage fell to well under his career average — and has said openly that he wants the year behind him. Neither side of this matchup arrives at full strength, which is why it grades as a wash rather than a mismatch.
Vikings quarterback · Packers defensive scheme
Arizona released Murray in March, Minnesota signed him to a one-year deal and named him the Week 1 starter over J.J. McCarthy in August — McCarthy has since dropped to third on the depth chart behind Carson Wentz. The wrinkle is on the other sideline: Green Bay's new defensive coordinator, Jonathan Gannon, was Murray's head coach in Arizona. Whether that familiarity shows up on the field is not something anyone can know in advance.
Packers run game
Jacobs will not play. He is on the commissioner's exempt list and ineligible to suit up, per Green Bay reporting this week, after a groin injury had already kept him out of August camp. MarShawn Lloyd sits first on the unofficial depth chart, with Chris Brooks and Kaleb Johnson — acquired from Pittsburgh — sharing the work behind the offensive line flagged above.
Source: WBAY — Packers running back group set without Jacobs
Vikings run game · Packers run defense
Minnesota is not running a starter and a backup. Jordan Mason is the early-down and short-yardage runner; Aaron Jones Sr. is the passing-game back, and he still gets real carries. Kalshi prices it that way: Mason's only listed markets are rushing yards, while Jones is the only Vikings back with a receiving market at all — and his own rushing ladder implies a share, not mop-up work. Green Bay's run defense was ordinary last season — 2,001 yards allowed, per StatMuse — so this is a matchup the Vikings can lean on if the Murray debut stalls — just do not expect one back to absorb it.
Source: Kalshi — Vikings @ Packers Week 1 rushing-yards ladders
Reporting verified 2026-09-12. Further sources: StatMuse — Packers rushing yards allowed, 2025 · PFF — 2026 offensive line rankings · Packers.com — Week 1 injury report, three questionable · Vikings.com — Week 1 injury report vs Green Bay · Yahoo Sports — Packers final Week 1 injury report · WBAY — Packers running back group set without Jacobs · NFL.com — Packers release Jaire Alexander · Yahoo Sports — Jordan Mason turning heads in Minnesota · Packernet — Week 1 preview, the matchups that decide the opener
Watch: why our model made Green Bay a 60% road favorite in Minneapolis while Kalshi had the Packers near 49% — the Week 1 gap behind the 11-point edge.
What the clip covers
GB
+3.0
MIN
-2.6
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 1 card free, every game priced against our model.
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Packers
60%
model win prob
Vikings
40%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
48%
Madden 27
52%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Vikings −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Vikings −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Vikings −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Vikings −4.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 more rungsVikings −6.5 → Vikings −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
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Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings is a NFC North game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 10. The model has the Packers by 3 (60%) off a -2.6 to +3.0 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC North, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Packers offense grades +3.3 (5th of 32) against a Vikings defense at -0.5 (15th) — 3.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Vikings offense (-2.5, 28th) meets the Packers defense (-0.5, 14th), a 2.0-point gap.
On the standings side, NFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 10, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC North race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Vikings at 7.2 wins (favored in 4 of 17) and the Packers at 9.7 (favored in 13) — 2.6 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 8th-hardest game on the Vikings' schedule and the 9th-hardest on the Packers'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 26-20 in the Packers' favour, plus 2 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Vikings won 16-3 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Vikings are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 60% on the Packers here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13GBMIN contract implies 50% for the Vikings against our 40% — a 10.1-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Vikings as the value side.
Full division picture on the NFC North hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game model number was 40% for the Vikings. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Vikings | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 50% 50c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 100% 100c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 50% 50c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 50% 50c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Green Bay Packers 22, Minnesota Vikings 39 — final, played Sunday, September 13, 2026; our pre-game model had the Packers by 3 (60% to win), and the Vikings won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff our power-rating model favored the Packers by 3 points, a 60% win probability over the Vikings. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13GBMIN market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC North teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 10. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Packers by 3 on ratings and home field alone.
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13GBMIN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Vikings YES is quoted around 50c against our 40% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Green Bay Packers visit the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, September 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 1, at U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Vikings at 7.2 wins (favored in 4) and the Packers at 9.7 (favored in 13). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Vikings' schedule and 9th-hardest on the Packers', by model win probability.
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP13GBMIN. The Vikings YES contract sits around 50c, which is an implied 50% — against our model's 40%. That is a 10.1pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
This game has been played, so the Week 1 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP13GBMIN has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Packers at 60% over the Vikings sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Our model puts it at 60% against a market price implying 50%, an edge of +10.1 points. Model 60% vs market 50% on GB. We rate it attack, sized at 5.1% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
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They run it back in Week 10. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Packers–Vikings, Week 10 →
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
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