Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, Kalshi implies 52% for the Vikings in Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings, NFL Week 1 2026, while our model has the Packers by 3 (59% to win) — a 10.5pp gap. Value side: the Packers.
GB
+2.9
MIN
-2.6
Packers
59%
model win prob
Vikings
41%
model win prob
Power-rating comparison
NFC North math: Packers at Vikings
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings is a NFC North game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 10. The model has the Packers by 3 (59%) off a -2.6 to +2.9 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC North, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Packers offense grades +3.2 (5th of 32) against a Vikings defense at -0.5 (16th) — 3.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Vikings offense (-2.5, 29th) meets the Packers defense (-0.5, 15th), a 2.0-point gap.
On the standings side, NFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 10, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC North race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Vikings at 7.1 wins (favored in 4 of 17) and the Packers at 9.7 (favored in 13) — 2.6 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 8th-hardest game on the Vikings' schedule and the 9th-hardest on the Packers'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 26-20 in the Packers' favour, plus 2 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Vikings won 16-3 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Vikings are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Packers at 59% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13GBMIN contract implies 52% for the Vikings against our 41% — a 10.5-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Packers as the value side at 50c.
Full division picture on the NFC North hub.
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Packers vs Vikings — frequently asked
Who is favored in Packers vs Vikings in Week 1?
Our power-rating model favors the Packers by 3 points, a 59% win probability over the Vikings. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13GBMIN market implies 52% for the Vikings — a 10.5pp gap versus the model.
How much does a NFC North result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC North teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 10. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Packers by 3 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Packers vs Vikings?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13GBMIN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Vikings YES is quoted around 52c against our 41% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Vikings host the Packers?
Green Bay Packers visit the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, September 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 1, at U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN.
What does the model project for the Vikings and Packers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Vikings at 7.1 wins (favored in 4) and the Packers at 9.7 (favored in 13). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Vikings' schedule and 9th-hardest on the Packers', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 59% on a team like the Packers?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Packers at 59% over the Vikings sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 10. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Packers–Vikings, Week 10 →
More Week 1 matchups
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