Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Quick Answer
As of September 7, 2026, Kalshi implies 53% for the Vikings in Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings, NFL Week 1 2026, while our model has the Packers by 3 (60% to win) — a 12.6pp gap. Value side: the Packers.
Kickoff board
Week 1 · 2026-09-071 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 12.6pp on Packers moneyline.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Watch: the Packers–Vikings Week 1 read
Watch: why our model made Green Bay a 60% road favorite in Minneapolis while Kalshi had the Packers near 49% — the Week 1 gap behind the 11-point edge.
What the clip covers
- The model made Green Bay a 60% favorite on the road in Minneapolis; Kalshi was pricing the Packers near 49% when the clip published on July 29, 2026 — a gap of roughly 11 points.
- The gap is the position, not the side. A market favorite is only worth holding when the model number sits meaningfully above the traded price — picking the winner and finding an edge are two different jobs.
- Week 1 lines price off how last season ended, which is where our power ratings and the market diverge most — openers are the widest part of the season for model-vs-market disagreement.
- The clip quotes a July 29 snapshot. The model and Kalshi figures in the tile above this section recompute hourly, so treat the 11-point number as where the read started, not where it stands today.
GB
+3.0
MIN
-2.6
Packers
60%
model win prob
Vikings
40%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
48%
Madden 27
52%
Madden 27
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Season outlook
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Packers vs Vikings player props
Our projection against the live Kalshi contract. Every prop is an “X or more” contract that pays $1 if the player gets there, so the price of the side we call, in cents,is the market’s implied probability — the edge is the gap between that and ours, in percentage points. Closest strike to our projection first.
| Player | Contract | Call | Our odds | Mkt | Edge | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler MurrayQB | 3+ pass TDsover 2.5 | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE |
| Kyler MurrayQB | 30+ rush ydsover 29.5 | YES | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | STRONG |
All 18 player-prop edges for Week 1 →Locked numbers are Pro.
Packers vs Vikings: where the prop prices are
The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — the Oracle calls above are the opinion.
| Player | Prop | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 4+ rec | 58.0¢ | 59% | -1.3¢ | over · Kalshi 60.7¢under · Novig 42.6¢ |
| Justin Jefferson | 6+ rec | 55.5¢ | 57% | -1.3¢ | over · Kalshi 58.7¢under · ProphetX 45.2¢ |
| Matthew Golden | 40+ rec yds | 49.0¢ | 50% | -1.1¢ | over · Novig 52.6¢under · ProphetX 52.2¢ |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 40+ rush yds | 31.0¢ | off-ladder | — | over · Novig 36.5¢ |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 50+ rush yds | 21.0¢ | off-ladder | — | Kalshi only |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 60+ rush yds | 13.5¢ | off-ladder | — | over · Kalshi 14.8¢ |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 70+ rush yds | 9.0¢ | off-ladder | — | Kalshi only |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 80+ rush yds | 6.0¢ | off-ladder | — | over · Kalshi 7.5¢ |
All 56 priced prop strikes for this game →+ 141 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.
NFC North math: Packers at Vikings
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings is a NFC North game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 10. The model has the Packers by 3 (60%) off a -2.6 to +3.0 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC North, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Packers offense grades +3.3 (5th of 32) against a Vikings defense at -0.5 (15th) — 3.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Vikings offense (-2.5, 28th) meets the Packers defense (-0.5, 14th), a 2.0-point gap.
On the standings side, NFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 10, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC North race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Vikings at 7.2 wins (favored in 4 of 17) and the Packers at 9.7 (favored in 13) — 2.6 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 8th-hardest game on the Vikings' schedule and the 9th-hardest on the Packers'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 26-20 in the Packers' favour, plus 2 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Vikings won 16-3 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Vikings are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 60% on the Packers here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13GBMIN contract implies 53% for the Vikings against our 40% — a 12.6-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Packers as the value side at 48c.
Full division picture on the NFC North hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Packers vs Vikings on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP13GBMIN
- Market-implied (Vikings)
- 53c · 53%
- Our model (Vikings)
- 40%
- Model vs market
- -12.6pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP13GBMIN. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 53c on the Vikings is an implied 53% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 40%, a 12.6pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Packers vs Vikings trades
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Vikings | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 53% 53c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 54% 54c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 53% 53c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 53% 53c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Packers vs Vikings — frequently asked
Who is favored in Packers vs Vikings in Week 1?
Our power-rating model favors the Packers by 3 points, a 60% win probability over the Vikings. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13GBMIN market implies 53% for the Vikings — a 12.6pp gap versus the model.
How much does a NFC North result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC North teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 10. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Packers by 3 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Packers vs Vikings?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13GBMIN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Vikings YES is quoted around 53c against our 40% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Vikings host the Packers?
Green Bay Packers visit the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, September 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 1, at U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN.
What does the model project for the Vikings and Packers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Vikings at 7.2 wins (favored in 4) and the Packers at 9.7 (favored in 13). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Vikings' schedule and 9th-hardest on the Packers', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Packers vs Vikings?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP13GBMIN. The Vikings YES contract sits around 53c, which is an implied 53% — against our model's 40%. That is a 12.6pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Packers vs Vikings on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 1 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13GBMIN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 60% on a team like the Packers?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Packers at 60% over the Vikings sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Is Packers moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 60% against a market price implying 48%, an edge of +12.6 points. Model 60% vs market 48% on GB. We rate it attack, sized at 6.0% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 10. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Packers–Vikings, Week 10 →
More Week 1 matchups
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