NFL Week 13 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated · model ratings
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, Kalshi has not listed Week 13 game markets yet, so there is no price to grade a pick against. The model's strongest side of the 14 games is the Broncos at 69% to win.
Every game below carries the model line, win probability, straight-up winner and projected score; picks light up the moment Kalshi opens the markets.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 14 Week 13 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
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- Chiefs at Rams — Model winner: Rams (68%)
- Lions at Falcons — Model winner: Lions (50%)
- Jaguars at Bears — Model winner: Bears (54%)
- Bengals at Browns — Model winner: Browns (54%)
- Packers at Saints — Model winner: Packers (58%)
- 49ers at Giants — Model winner: Giants (52%)
- Chargers at Buccaneers — Model winner: Buccaneers (58%)
- Commanders at Titans — Model winner: Titans (51%)
- Eagles at Cardinals — Model winner: Eagles (61%)
- Dolphins at Broncos — Model winner: Broncos (69%)
- Panthers at Vikings — Model winner: Vikings (54%)
- Bills at Patriots — Model winner: Patriots (62%)
- Texans at Steelers — Model winner: Steelers (51%)
- Cowboys at Seahawks — Model winner: Seahawks (67%)
All 14 Week 13 games with our DAEPA model win probabilities, the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the Kalshi line and the edge.
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Week 13 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 14 games. Kalshi has not priced this week yet, so favorites and upsets are labelled the moment the markets open.
- Rams over Chiefs68%—
- Lions over Falcons50%—
- Bears over Jaguars54%—
- Browns over Bengals54%—
- Packers over Saints58%—
- Giants over 49ers52%—
- Buccaneers over Chargers58%—
- Titans over Commanders51%—
- Eagles over Cardinals61%—
- Broncos over Dolphins69%—
- Vikings over Panthers54%—
- Patriots over Bills62%—
- Steelers over Texans51%—
- Seahawks over Cowboys67%—
Winner = the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability. Kalshi = the mid price of that side’s contract, in cents. An upset is a model winner priced under 50¢; that is a straight-up call, not the play — the play on each game is the edge side in the board above.
Week 13 projected scores
- ChiefsatRams20.0–28.248.3
- LionsatFalcons23.0–22.545.5
- JaguarsatBears23.7–25.048.8
- BengalsatBrowns20.0–21.041.0
- PackersatSaints24.8–21.946.8
- 49ersatGiants26.4–26.753.1
- ChargersatBuccaneers21.1–23.744.8
- CommandersatTitans23.3–23.346.5
- EaglesatCardinals24.1–20.844.9
- DolphinsatBroncos19.3–26.245.5
- PanthersatVikings20.9–22.042.9
- BillsatPatriots24.0–27.551.5
- TexansatSteelers20.0–20.140.0
- CowboysatSeahawks22.9–29.152.0
Projected score = the model margin split around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings). The total is a derivation from the power ratings, not a stored engine number; the margin is the same one behind the model line above. One decimal, so a projection is never mistaken for a final score.
NFL Week 13 predictions — frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 13 2026?
Kalshi hasn't listed Week 13 game markets yet, so there is no market price to grade a pick against. The board shows the DAEPA model line and win probability on all 14 games, and the picks light up the minute those markets open.
How are these NFL Week 13 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the model win probability minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means the model has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap is 5 points or more; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who wins straight up in NFL Week 13 2026?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 14 Week 13 games, with its win probability. Rams over Chiefs (68%); Lions over Falcons (50%); Bears over Jaguars (54%); Browns over Bengals (54%); Packers over Saints (58%); Giants over 49ers (52%); Buccaneers over Chargers (58%); Titans over Commanders (51%); Eagles over Cardinals (61%); Broncos over Dolphins (69%); Vikings over Panthers (54%); Patriots over Bills (62%); Steelers over Texans (51%); Seahawks over Cowboys (67%). The winner is the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability; an upset is a model winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where the model and the price disagree by 5 points or more.
What are the projected scores for NFL Week 13?
Projected scores, winner first: Rams 28.2, Chiefs 20.0; Lions 23.0, Falcons 22.5; Bears 25.0, Jaguars 23.7; Browns 21.0, Bengals 20.0; Packers 24.8, Saints 21.9; Giants 26.7, 49ers 26.4; Buccaneers 23.7, Chargers 21.1; Titans 23.3, Commanders 23.3; Eagles 24.1, Cardinals 20.8; Broncos 26.2, Dolphins 19.3; Vikings 22.0, Panthers 20.9; Patriots 27.5, Bills 24.0; Steelers 20.1, Texans 20.0; Seahawks 29.1, Cowboys 22.9. Each score splits the model margin around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings) — the total is derived from the power ratings, not a stored engine number, which is why scores carry one decimal.
How often are the Week 13 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Model win probabilities from the DAEPA power-rating engine. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.