NFL Week 13 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated Β· model ratings
Quick Answer
As of October 28, 2026, the Week 13 slate is not loaded yet.
Every game below carries the model line, win probability and straight-up winner; picks light up the moment Kalshi opens the markets.
Week 13 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 14 games. Kalshi has not priced this week yet, so favorites and upsets are labelled the moment the markets open. 14 games are held until both starting quarterbacks are confirmed, so they carry no call yet.
- Chiefs at Rams Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Lions at Falcons Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Jaguars at Bears Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Bengals at Browns Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Packers at Saints Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- 49ers at Giants Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Chargers at Buccaneers Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Commanders at Titans Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Eagles at Cardinals Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Dolphins at Broncos Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Panthers at Vikings Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Bills at Patriots Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Texans at Steelers Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Cowboys at Seahawks Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
Winner = the side with the higher published win probability. Once Kalshi prices a game that probability is market-anchored β it is the marketβs number, which is why the Model and Kalshi columns sit within a point of each other and why no upset is labelled. Before a market opens it is the modelβs own read. The modelβs separate opinion is the lean, in points, graded on its own and never published as an edge. Kalshi = the mid price of the winnerβs contract, in cents. A straight-up call is not the play β the play on each game is the edge side on its matchup page.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles Β· DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 14 Week 13 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
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- Chiefs at Rams β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Lions at Falcons β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Jaguars at Bears β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Bengals at Browns β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Packers at Saints β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- 49ers at Giants β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Chargers at Buccaneers β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Commanders at Titans β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Eagles at Cardinals β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Dolphins at Broncos β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Panthers at Vikings β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Bills at Patriots β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Texans at Steelers β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Cowboys at Seahawks β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
All 14 Week 13 games with the published win probability (fair value (books) once priced), the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the modelβs own line and the edge.
Who's overrated this week? Experts vs. market β β the Kalshi contracts behind every price are on the Kalshi NFL markets board, and the NFL power ratings are the numbers underneath every model line on this page.
Injury report, by unit: which defenses have lost several starters from the same front seven or secondary this week β the defensive injury cluster board.
Week 13 QB & injury watch
Where a quarterback's status moves our number. An unconfirmed starter gets two lines that collapse to one when the team names him; an unvetted room gets no line until it is.
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Chiefs at Rams because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Chiefs at Rams β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Lions at Falcons because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Lions at Falcons β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Jaguars at Bears because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Jaguars at Bears β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Bengals at Browns because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Bengals at Browns β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Packers at Saints because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Packers at Saints β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in 49ers at Giants because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. 49ers at Giants β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Chargers at Buccaneers because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Chargers at Buccaneers β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Commanders at Titans because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Commanders at Titans β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Eagles at Cardinals because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Eagles at Cardinals β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Dolphins at Broncos because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Dolphins at Broncos β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Panthers at Vikings because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Panthers at Vikings β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Bills at Patriots because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Bills at Patriots β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Texans at Steelers because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Texans at Steelers β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Cowboys at Seahawks because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Cowboys at Seahawks β
How to use these pages: what every box on a game page means β
Live: every Week 13 game where our model and Kalshi disagree enough to call. Full edge board β
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record β
Week 13 primetime, live
Run Week 13 yourself
All tools βRankings NFL power rankings (Week 8)
Week 13 players to watch
All players βOne page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
NFL Week 13 predictions β frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 13 2026?
Kalshi hasn't listed Week 13 game markets yet, so there is no market price to grade a pick against. The board shows the DAEPA model line and win probability on all 14 games, and the picks light up the minute those markets open.
How are these NFL Week 13 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the published win probability β the fair value (books) once a game is priced β minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means that number has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54Β’. We only call a pick when the gap clears 2 points net of the book's spread; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who will win each NFL Week 13 game?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 14 Week 13 games, with its win probability. Chiefs at Rams (QB pending); Lions at Falcons (QB pending); Jaguars at Bears (QB pending); Bengals at Browns (QB pending); Packers at Saints (QB pending); 49ers at Giants (QB pending); Chargers at Buccaneers (QB pending); Commanders at Titans (QB pending); Eagles at Cardinals (QB pending); Dolphins at Broncos (QB pending); Panthers at Vikings (QB pending); Bills at Patriots (QB pending); Texans at Steelers (QB pending); Cowboys at Seahawks (QB pending). The winner is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced); an upset is a winner priced under 50Β’ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls β the play is the side where that number and the price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread.
How often are the Week 13 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game β result, hit or miss, closing-line value β so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Win probabilities are the market-anchored fair value (books) once a game is priced; the modelβs own line is the lean. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only β trade responsibly.