As of October 30, 2026, Kalshi implies 63% for the Lions in Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions, NFL Week 8 2026, while the market line has the Lions by 3.5 (62% to win) — a 0.3pp agreement. Inside our floor for a position — no position. The PredictionMarketsPicks model's own line is Lions by 2.5 against a market line of Lions by 3.5 — a 1.0-point lean toward the Vikings, graded separately from any position.
No actionable edge on this game — 3 markets priced; 1 is flagged as a conflict (a wide gap on an unconfirmed input, so no stake) and the rest pass.
MarketPriceModelEdgeCall¼ Kelly
Kyler Murray UNDER 1.5 Pass TDsProvenance-limited row and the gap is wide — our input is not confirmed, so this is a conflict, not a play in either direction.58.5cMODERATEMODERATEConflict—
Justin Jefferson UNDER 5.5 ReceptionsProvenance-limited row — the disagreement is real but our input is not confirmed. Not a play.44.5c55%MODERATEPass—
Vikings moneylineModel 38% vs market 38% on MIN.Market-anchored fair value: MIN 38% (+0.5pp)37.5c38%Pass—
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Data quality & caveats
• 2 rows downgraded to WATCH: the disagreement is real but our projection input is provenance-limited.
The only unbeaten team left has the league’s best defense, and Detroit’s offense has been strongest against the blitz
Minnesota is 6-0 and allows a league-best 12.3 points a game, but its offense is among the league’s worst in yards per game. Detroit is 4-2 after a 20-17 win over Green Bay on a last-second field goal and ties for the league lead in sacks, though its defense gives up the most yards. The game turns on whether Kyler Murray and a banged-up offensive line can survive the Lions’ pass rush, and whether Jahmyr Gibbs is fully healthy. Both quarterback rooms clear our gate.
Injury report · Both teams
Quarterback gate and the Wednesday practice picture
Close to even
QB gate: PASS. Kyler Murray and Jared Goff are both absent from the Week 8 reports. Minnesota’s list is short but touches the offense: running back Aaron Jones and left guard Joe Huber (both knee) did not practice Wednesday and right tackle Brian O’Neill (knee) was limited. Detroit’s list is longer. Jahmyr Gibbs (shoulder) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) did not practice, and Aidan Hutchinson, Penei Sewell, Alim McNeill and DJ Wonnum sat out on rest designations that coach Dan Campbell planned in advance. Safety Kerby Joseph (knee) and cornerback Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (ankle) were limited. Gibbs said the shoulder issue is minor, but Thursday’s report is the signal to watch.
Murray / Goff
Neither on the Wednesday report — Vikings.com and Lions.com, 2026-10-28
Vikings not practicing
Aaron Jones (knee), Joe Huber (knee); O’Neill limited — Vikings.com, 2026-10-28
Lions not practicing
Gibbs (shoulder), St. Brown (ankle), Tyleik Williams (illness) plus four rest days — Lions.com, 2026-10-28
Lions limited
Joseph (knee), Rakestraw (ankle), Saylors (neck) — Lions.com, 2026-10-28
Gibbs on the shoulder
"It’s going to be fine," after an awkward fall late against Green Bay — Detroit Sports Nation, 2026-10-29
Murray and a thinning Minnesota offensive line against the league’s co-leader in sacks
Edge: Lions
Detroit’s 21 sacks are tied for the league lead, and Minnesota is the kind of offense that sacks can wreck: it averages 162.3 passing yards a game, fourth-worst, and Murray was sacked nine times in his first three starts. In the win over Indianapolis he finished with 139 net passing yards, Justin Jefferson had four catches for 44 yards, and a 35-yard Murray scramble was the biggest play of the day. All five Vikings linemen played every one of 59 snaps, but Blake Brandel and Will Fries graded among the lowest on the team in pass protection, and now Huber is not practicing and O’Neill is limited. Hutchinson and Wonnum sitting Wednesday is a rest day, not a concern. Detroit also allows the most yards per game, so Minnesota can find space if it holds up.
Lions sacks
21, tied for the league lead; 391 yards allowed per game, most in the league — SI, 2026-10-26
Vikings passing offense
162.3 yards per game, fourth-worst; 20.8 points per game — Side Lion Report Week 8 tracker, week of 2026-10-26
Murray in three starts
65 of 91, 2 TD, 0 INT, sacked 9 times — Yahoo, 2026-10-28
Vikings OL vs. Colts
Five starters played all 59 snaps; Brandel and Fries graded lowest in pass protection — Bring Me The Sports, 2026-10-26
Week 7 passing
139 net yards; Jefferson 4 for 44 — SI, 2026-10-26
Vikings defense · Lions rushing and passing offense
Gibbs and Goff against Brian Flores’s blitz-heavy defense
Edge: Vikings
Minnesota’s defense allows a league-best 12.3 points a game, almost five fewer than the second-ranked Chiefs. Against Indianapolis it blitzed about 85 percent of the time by one outlet’s count, with Blake Cashman grading 94.3 and Dallas Turner tied for third in the league with six sacks. Detroit’s answer is Goff, who leads the league in total EPA against the blitz and ranks fourth in EPA per play against it, plus a Gibbs workload of 134 carries for 620 yards and 270 receiving yards. Detroit scored only 20 against Green Bay and lost two fumbles, so finishing drives is the open question.
Vikings defense
12.3 points allowed per game, best in the league — DAZN, 2026-10-26
Dallas Turner
6 sacks, tied for third in the league — DAZN, 2026-10-26
Blake Cashman vs. Colts
94.3 PFF grade, 2 sacks, 4 pressures — Bring Me The Sports, 2026-10-26
Goff vs. the blitz
0.32 EPA per play, fourth-best; league-best 21.71 total EPA — Side Lion Report Week 8 tracker, week of 2026-10-26
—Gibbs’s true availability and workload. The shoulder is described as minor by Gibbs and Campbell, but he did not practice Wednesday and the severity is unclear until Thursday’s and Friday’s reports. (https://detroitsportsnation.com/jahmyr-gibbs-shoulder-injury-lions-vikings-week-8/richardknight/detroit-lions/10/29/2026/503266/)
—Minnesota’s knee cluster. Aaron Jones and Joe Huber did not practice and O’Neill was limited, and we found no timeline for any of them. If Huber and O’Neill are both out, the matchup against Detroit’s rush changes a lot. (https://www.vikings.com/news/lions-injury-report-week-8-2026-nfl-season)
—The 85 percent blitz figure. It comes from one outlet’s account of the Colts game, not a season-long rate, and the DAZN piece gave no blitz-rate or pressure-rate numbers. (https://bringmethesports.com/vikings-snap-counts-and-notable-pff-grades-from-latest-on-brand-win-over-colts)
—Detroit’s pass-rush production by player. We confirmed the team’s 21 sacks but could not confirm Aidan Hutchinson’s 2026 sack total or pressure rate, and four rested starters make Wednesday’s practice a poor indicator. (https://www.si.com/nfl/vikings/onsi/harmon-s-longship-week-7-4-vikings-thoughts-win-vs-colts-trade-urgency-offensive-struggles-more-01m5w9d2s1m9)
—Kerby Joseph’s return. SI listed him on the physically-unable-to-perform list and a tracker projects a return around November 22, yet he was limited Wednesday. Whether he is active this week is unconfirmed. (https://sidelionreport.com/lions-vs-vikings-week-8-tracker-how-to-watch-storylines-injuries-and-prediction-01m5z0kcpvjv)
The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — our Oracle calls are the opinion.
No Kalshi strike in this game is 5¢+ off the sportsbooks right now — the market agrees with itself.
Vikings vs Lions: where the prop prices are — Kalshi mid vs sportsbook consensus per strike, widest gap first
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 8 card free, every game priced against the market.
Every NFL game priced against the live Kalshi line, every week — $150/yr
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: fair value against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Our projection against the live Kalshi contract. Every prop is an “X or more” contract that pays $1 if the player gets there, so the price of the side we call, in cents,is the market’s implied probability — the edge is the gap between that and ours, in percentage points. Closest strike to our projection first.
Vikings vs Lions player props — the called side, its Kalshi price and our tier on the strike closest to our projection; our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions is a NFC North game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 15. The model has the Lions by 2.5 (57%) off a +0.6 to +0.6 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC North, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
No unit matchup in this game separates by even a point on our scale. The Lions grade +2.1 on offense (9th of 32) and -2.0 on defense (24th); the Vikings -2.4 (30th) and +2.4 (1st). Evenly-graded units on both sides of the ball is exactly the profile that produces a model line built from nothing but home field.
On the standings side, NFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 15, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC North race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Lions at 9.6 wins (favored in 9 of 17) and the Vikings at 11.6 (favored in 10) — 2.0 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 13th-hardest game on the Lions' schedule and the 5th-hardest on the Vikings'.
One team has owned this series: the Vikings are 32-16 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2025: Vikings won 23-10 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Lions are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Lions at 57% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET contract implies 63% for the Lions against a fair value (books) of 62% — a 0.3-point gap. That is inside our floor for a position (2 points net of the book's spread), so we pass — the market and the fair value are telling the same story.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Vikings vs Lions on Kalshi
Kalshi event
KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET
Market-implied (Lions)
63c · 63%
Fair value — books (Lions)
62%
Fair value vs market
-0.3pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 63c on the Lions is an implied 63% — no odds conversion needed. Our books-anchored fair value has 62%, a 0.3pp agreement. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
The earliest line we archived, on Sep 13, had the Lions −4.5 (DraftKings). The median across 9 books now is the Lions −3.5. On Kalshi the Lions trade at 63¢ to win, a 63% implied chance.
Book
Earliest line we archived
Now
Spread trend
DraftKings
Lions −4.5 · O/U 47.5Sep 13
Lions −3 · O/U 46.5
FanDuel
Lions −3 · O/U 48.5Oct 20
Lions −3.5 · O/U 46.5
BetMGM
Lions −3 · O/U 46Oct 26
Lions −3.5 · O/U 46
Caesars
Lions −5.5 · O/U 47Sep 13
Lions −3.5 · O/U 46
BetRivers
Lions −3 · O/U 48Oct 20
Lions −3.5 · O/U 45.5
ESPN BET
Lions −3 · O/U 46.5Oct 26
Lions −3.5 · O/U 45.5
Fanatics
Lions −3.5 · O/U 46Oct 26
Lions −3.5 · O/U 46
Novig
Lions −3.5 · O/U 48.5Oct 20
Lions −3.5 · O/U 45.5
ProphetX
Lions −2.5 · O/U 46.5Oct 26
Lions −3.5 · O/U 46.5
Kalshi
a contract, not a spread
Lions 63¢ to win
Posted spreads and totals as our odds feed recorded them; a row is added only when a book moves its line. “Earliest line we archived” is our first capture, which is not necessarily the market’s open. Spreads are stated for the favorite. The Kalshi price is that exchange’s own moneyline contract.
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Vikings at Lions
Same contracts on both venues · cost to buy after fees · as of 10:10 AM ET
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/Polymarket%20US%20Rulebook%20(2026.09.30).pdf for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Polymarket US lists 452 other markets for this game that we haven’t matched to a Kalshi contract (first score, first touchdown, double result, exact margin, race to points).
Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same question: the same team, the same line, the same player, stat and threshold. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 6.95% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max $1.74 per 100. The best-price column compares those costs; it needs a two-sided book on both venues, and a price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.
Kalshi vs Novig on this game — Detroit Lions to win: Kalshi 64.6¢ (ask + fee) · Novig 63.0¢ (no fee pregame) · Novig 1.6¢ cheaper (both books as of 10:57 AM ET). Every game → · NFL on Novig · Trade on Novig →
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Oracle Ladders venue check
At 4+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 56¢, the books imply 53¢ — 1.5 points below the book read.
Legend
Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
book consensus (no-vig)
Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Oracle Ladders venue check
At 5+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 53¢, the books imply 51¢ — 1.9 points below the book read.
Legend
Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
book consensus (no-vig)
Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Oracle Ladders venue check
At 5+ rec Kalshi's YES costs 47¢, the books imply 45¢ — 1.4 points above the book read.
Legend
Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
book consensus (no-vig)
Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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The market line has the Lions at 62% to beat the Vikings in Week 8.
Who is favored in Vikings vs Lions in Week 8?
The market line has the Lions by 3.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Vikings (our model's own line: Lions by 2.5). Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET market implies 63% for the Lions — a 0.3pp agreement with the market line.
How much does a NFC North result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC North teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 15. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Lions by 2.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Vikings vs Lions?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. Lions YES is quoted around 63c against a fair value (books) of 62%. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Lions host the Vikings?
Minnesota Vikings visit the Detroit Lions on Sunday, November 1, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 8, at Ford Field, Detroit, MI.
What does the model project for the Lions and Vikings this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Lions at 9.6 wins (favored in 9) and the Vikings at 11.6 (favored in 10). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Lions' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Vikings', by win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Vikings vs Lions?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET. The Lions YES contract sits around 63c, which is an implied 63% — against our books-anchored fair value of 62%. That is a 0.3pp agreement, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Vikings vs Lions on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, and the Week 8 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 57% on a team like the Lions?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Lions at 57% over the Vikings sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
What happens on Kalshi if Vikings vs Lions ends in a tie?
Your position is not voided. On a team contract with no Tie strike listed, Yes and No holders are each paid 50c a contract, and overtime counts toward the result. A player prop on someone who never plays settles at the last fair price rather than refunding, and a game postponed more than 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Every rule is at predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi/settlement-rules.
Is Kyler Murray UNDER 1.5 Pass TDs worth a position?
Kalshi prices it at 59%. Provenance-limited row and the gap is wide — our input is not confirmed, so this is a conflict, not a play in either direction. Our sources disagree by more than 15 points on this one, so we publish it as a conflict and take no position.
Is Justin Jefferson UNDER 5.5 Receptions worth a position?
Kalshi prices it at 45%. Provenance-limited row — the disagreement is real but our input is not confirmed. Not a play. We pass — no position.
Is Vikings moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 38% against a market price implying 38%, an edge of +0.3 points. Model 38% vs market 38% on MIN. We pass — no position.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 15. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Vikings–Lions, Week 15 →
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
