Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Lions by 7.5 in Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions, NFL Week 8 2026 — 66% to win, and the 14th-widest model gap in Week 8. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Lions at 61c or below (or Vikings at 29c or below) is where the model would take a position.
MIN
-2.6
DET
+2.5
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Vikings
34%
model win prob
Lions
66%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
30%
Madden 27
70%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Lions at 61c or below, or the Vikings at 29c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Vikings at Lions
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Lions −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Lions −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Lions −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Lions −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Lions −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Lions −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Lions −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Lions −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Lions −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Lions −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Why the model has the Lions by 7.5
The model does not think this one is close. The Lions rate 7th of 32 at +2.5, the Vikings 27th at -2.6, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Lions by 7.5 — 66% to win. That is the 14th-widest gap among the 14 games on the Week 8 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Vikings need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Lions grade +0.7 on that side of the ball (6th of 32) against a Vikings offense at -2.5 (28th) — 3.2 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Lions offense (+1.3, 10th) meets the Vikings defense (-0.5, 15th), a 1.8-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Lions at 9.8 wins (favored in 13 of 17) and the Vikings at 7.2 (favored in 4) — 2.7 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Lions' schedule and the 3rd-hardest on the Vikings'.
On the standings side, NFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 15, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC North race.
One team has owned this series: the Vikings are 32-16 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2025: Vikings won 23-10 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Lions are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 66% on the Lions here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Lions 66%, Vikings 34%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Lions contracts a buy at 61c or below and Vikings contracts a buy at 29c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the NFC North hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Vikings vs Lions on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET
- Market-implied (Lions)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Lions)
- 66%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Lions at 61c or below, or the Vikings at 29c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Vikings vs Lions trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Lions | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Vikings vs Lions — frequently asked
Who is favored in Vikings vs Lions in Week 8?
Our power-rating model picks the Lions by 7.5 points, a 66% win probability over the Vikings, for a projected score of Lions 25, Vikings 17 on a ratings-implied 42.5-point total. The Lions rate 7th of 32 (+2.5) and the Vikings 27th (-2.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What would it take for the Vikings to win?
The 7.5-point line comes from a 5.1-point rating gap, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Vikings still project at 34% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the unit matchup they win on paper. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
How do you take a position on Vikings vs Lions?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Lions at 61c or below, or the Vikings at 29c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Lions host the Vikings?
Minnesota Vikings visit the Detroit Lions on Sunday, November 1, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 8, at Ford Field, Detroit, MI.
What does the model project for the Lions and Vikings this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Lions at 9.8 wins (favored in 13) and the Vikings at 7.2 (favored in 4). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Lions' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Vikings', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Vikings vs Lions?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Lions at 61c or below or the Vikings at 29c or below, off a 7.5-point line.
Can you trade Vikings vs Lions on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 8 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 66% on a team like the Lions?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Lions at 66% over the Vikings sit in that band, off a 7.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 15. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Vikings–Lions, Week 15 →
More Week 8 matchups
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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