Gridiron EdgeWeek 8 · 2026NFC North rivalry

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

Updated October 15, 2026 · model ratings

Sunday, November 1, 2026 · Ford Field, Detroit, MI

Quick Answer

As of October 15, 2026, PredictionMarketsPicks' model favors the Lions by 3.5 in Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions, NFL Week 8 2026 — 59% to win, and a NFC North game. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Lions at 54c or below (or Vikings at 36c or below) is where the model would take a position.

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PMP · WK 8 MARKET PENDING

Sun, Nov 1

AWAY

MIN +0.0

vs DET -3.5

HOME

DET +0.8

Model · DET 59% home win prob

Kalshi · DET — yes mid

Edge — model − market

📍 Detroit, MI MARKET PENDING

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Vikings

41%

our model

Lions

59%

our model

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →

30%

Madden 27

70%

Madden 27

KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Lions at 54c or below, or the Vikings at 36c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.

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Price GapsPROWhere the best price is right now — Kalshi vs Polymarket vs the books.→Combo Edge BuilderFREEPrice a same-game combo for this slate — true joint probability, free, no leg cap.→NFL Win ProbabilityFREETurn any spread and total into a win probability and projected score.→Prop BoardLIVEEvery listed player prop, model number against the Kalshi price.→

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The Ladder — Vikings at Lions

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Vikings at LionsSpreadMARKET READ

Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.

StrikeKalshi YES · 0–100¢Take itBooksGap

Market

—

Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

Legend

Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
book consensus (no-vig)
Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.

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Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

Vikings at Lions Kalshi spread ladder for Week 8: the Kalshi price at every spread strike — The Vikings–Lions spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

Vikings vs Lions power ratings (Week 8)

TeamRatingRankTier

Minnesota Vikings+0.015thAverage

Detroit Lions+0.812thAverage

Vikings and Lions season outlook

MINDET

Average wins10.99.3

Make playoffs76%50%

Win division44%20%

Win Super Bowl4.1%3.1%

10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

NFC North math: Vikings at Lions

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions is a NFC North game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 15. The model has the Lions by 3.5 (59%) off a +0.8 to +0.0 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC North, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.

No unit matchup in this game separates by even a point on our scale. The Lions grade +2.2 on offense (6th of 32) and -1.9 on defense (25th); the Vikings -2.5 (30th) and +2.0 (2nd). Evenly-graded units on both sides of the ball is exactly the profile that produces a model line built from nothing but home field.

On the standings side, NFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 15, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC North race.

Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Lions at 9.3 wins (favored in 10 of 17) and the Vikings at 10.9 (favored in 10) — 1.6 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 12th-hardest game on the Lions' schedule and the 4th-hardest on the Vikings'.

One team has owned this series: the Vikings are 32-16 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2025: Vikings won 23-10 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Lions are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Lions at 59% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Lions 59%, Vikings 41%. Applying our 5 points floor, that makes Lions contracts a buy at 54c or below and Vikings contracts a buy at 36c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.

Full division picture on the NFC North hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Vikings vs Lions on Kalshi

Kalshi event: KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET
Market-implied (Lions): not listed yet
Our ratings line (Lions): 59%
Model vs market: —

Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Lions at 54c or below, or the Vikings at 36c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.

Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

Where Vikings vs Lions trades

Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

Venue	Lions	Trade
Kalshi	not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game	Trade on Kalshi →
Novig	not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link	Sign-up offer →
Polymarket	no captured price for this game — international book	Sign-up offer →
Polymarket US	no captured price for this game — US exchange	Sign-up offer →
Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract	same Kalshi contract, not listed yet	Open Robinhood →
Coinbasesame Kalshi contract	same Kalshi contract, not listed yet	Open Coinbase →
DraftKings Predictions	price not available — sign-up offer →	Sign-up offer →
FanDuel Predicts	price not available — sign-up offer →	Sign-up offer →
Fanatics Markets	price not available — sign-up offer →	Sign-up offer →

A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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Vikings vs Lions — frequently asked

Who will win Lions vs Vikings?

Our model has the Lions at 59% to beat the Vikings in Week 8.

Who is favored in Vikings vs Lions in Week 8?

Our power-rating model picks the Lions by 3.5 points, a 59% win probability over the Vikings. The Lions rate 12th of 32 (+0.8) and the Vikings 15th (+0.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.

How much does a NFC North result matter here?

Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC North teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 15. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Lions by 3.5 on ratings and home field alone.

How do you take a position on Vikings vs Lions?

The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Lions at 54c or below, or the Vikings at 36c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

When and where do the Lions host the Vikings?

Minnesota Vikings visit the Detroit Lions on Sunday, November 1, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 8, at Ford Field, Detroit, MI.

What does the model project for the Lions and Vikings this season?

Across all 17 games the model projects the Lions at 9.3 wins (favored in 10) and the Vikings at 10.9 (favored in 10). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Lions' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Vikings', by win probability.

What are the Kalshi odds for Vikings vs Lions?

Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Lions at 54c or below or the Vikings at 36c or below, off a 3.5-point line.

Can you trade Vikings vs Lions on Kalshi?

Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 8 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV01MINDET. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.

How often does the model win when it is 59% on a team like the Lions?

57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Lions at 59% over the Vikings sit in that band, off a 3.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?

Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

Trade this game on Kalshi →Lions hub →Vikings hub →Kalshi NFL hub →Week 8 edge board →NFL predictions hub →

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The rematch

They run it back in Week 15. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Vikings–Lions, Week 15 →

After this one

Vikings: Week 9 vs BillsModel line →Lions: Week 9 at DolphinsModel line →

More Week 8 matchups

Panthers at PackersPackers −4.5

Ravens at BillsBills −3

Titans at BengalsBengals −9

Cardinals at CowboysCowboys −6

Colts at JaguarsJaguars −6.5

Raiders at JetsJets −3.5

Browns at SteelersSteelers −3

Falcons at BuccaneersFalcons −2.5

Chargers at RamsRams −7.5

Chiefs at BroncosBroncos −3.5

Patriots at DolphinsPatriots −6

Eagles at CommandersCommanders −1

Bears at SeahawksSeahawks −4

Full Week 8 board →Next: NFL Week 9 predictions →

Same model, inside your AI agent

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