Arizona Cardinals vs Kansas City Chiefs
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, November 22, 2026 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Chiefs by 5.5 in Arizona Cardinals vs Kansas City Chiefs, NFL Week 11 2026 — 66% to win, and Chiefs 20th of 32, Cardinals 30th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22ARIKC yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Chiefs at 61c or below (or Cardinals at 29c or below) is where the model would take a position.
ARI
-3.7
KC
-0.6
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Cardinals
34%
model win prob
Chiefs
66%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
31%
Madden 27
69%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV22ARIKC hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Chiefs at 61c or below, or the Cardinals at 29c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Cardinals at Chiefs
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chiefs −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chiefs −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chiefs −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chiefs −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chiefs −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chiefs −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chiefs −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chiefs −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Chiefs −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Chiefs −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
What the model sees in Cardinals at Chiefs
The Cardinals travel to face the Chiefs in Week 11. Our power ratings put the Chiefs 20th of 32 at -0.6 (Average tier) and the Cardinals 30th at -3.7 (Below Avg tier) — a 3.1-point gap that home field widens to a 5.5-point line on the Chiefs, 66% to win. It rates as the 13th-widest of the 13 games in Week 11.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Chiefs offense grades -0.2 (20th of 32) against a Cardinals defense at -2.9 (30th) — 2.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cardinals offense (-0.7, 22nd) meets the Chiefs defense (-0.8, 18th), a 0.1-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Chiefs +0.4 (19th of 32) to -0.1 (30th).
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Chiefs at 8.2 wins (favored in 9 of 17) and the Cardinals at 6.5 (favored in 3) — 1.7 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Chiefs' schedule and the 8th-hardest on the Cardinals'.
One team has owned this series: the Chiefs are 5-1 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Chiefs won 44-21 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Chiefs are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 66% on the Chiefs here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22ARIKC, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Chiefs 66%, Cardinals 34%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Chiefs contracts a buy at 61c or below and Cardinals contracts a buy at 29c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Cardinals vs Chiefs on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV22ARIKC
- Market-implied (Chiefs)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Chiefs)
- 66%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22ARIKC yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Chiefs at 61c or below, or the Cardinals at 29c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Cardinals vs Chiefs trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Chiefs | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Cardinals vs Chiefs — frequently asked
Who is favored in Cardinals vs Chiefs in Week 11?
Our power-rating model picks the Chiefs by 5.5 points, a 66% win probability over the Cardinals, for a projected score of Chiefs 26, Cardinals 21 on a ratings-implied 46.9-point total. The Chiefs rate 20th of 32 (-0.6) and the Cardinals 30th (-3.7); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22ARIKC yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Cardinals vs Chiefs?
Chiefs offense (-0.2, 20th of 32) against Cardinals defense (-2.9, 30th) — 2.8 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Chiefs (+0.4, 19th).
How do you take a position on Cardinals vs Chiefs?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV22ARIKC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Chiefs at 61c or below, or the Cardinals at 29c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Chiefs host the Cardinals?
Arizona Cardinals visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, November 22, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 11, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO.
What does the model project for the Chiefs and Cardinals this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Chiefs at 8.2 wins (favored in 9) and the Cardinals at 6.5 (favored in 3). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Chiefs' schedule and 8th-hardest on the Cardinals', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Cardinals vs Chiefs?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22ARIKC yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Chiefs at 61c or below or the Cardinals at 29c or below, off a 5.5-point line.
Can you trade Cardinals vs Chiefs on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 11 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV22ARIKC. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 66% on a team like the Chiefs?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Chiefs at 66% over the Cardinals sit in that band, off a 5.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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