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Gridiron Edge

NFL Week 8 2026 Predictions & Picks

Updated · market prices

Pro: our fair value vs the live Kalshi price on every game· $111 your first year →

Quick Answer

As of October 30, 2026, our Week 8 calls (13 still to play): the model sides with the market favorite in all 12 called games straight up. The model disagrees with the Kalshi price on 4 of 14 games; the widest gap is Dolphins at 27% to win versus Kalshi's 24¢. Ravens at Bills is held until both starting quarterbacks are confirmed. Week 8 picks straight up: Packers over Panthers (pre-game call), Bengals over Titans, Cowboys over Cardinals, Lions over Vikings, Jaguars over Colts, Jets over Raiders, Steelers over Browns, Buccaneers over Falcons, Rams over Chargers, Chiefs over Broncos, Patriots over Dolphins, Commanders over Eagles, Seahawks over Bears.

Next widest: Buccaneers at 59% to win versus Kalshi's 56¢; Jets at 55% to win versus Kalshi's 53¢.

Every game below carries the published win probability, the Kalshi price, and the gap between them — plus the straight-up winner and the model's lean.

See all 14 Week 8 games →Week 9 early picks →

Week 8 straight-up picks

Kalshi has priced 12 of these 14 games and our published probability is anchored to the market on each, so the straight-up pick matches the market favorite by construction — that agreement is the method, not a finding. Widest disagreement this week: our own ratings line sits 3.0 points closer to the Colts than the market's, a read we grade separately and never publish as an edge. One game is held until both starting quarterbacks are confirmed, so it carries no call yet.

WinnerModelKalshi
  1. Packers over Panthers · pre-game call    62%—
  2. Ravens at Bills · QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed—61.5¢
  3. Bengals over Titans    86%85.5¢
  4. Cowboys over Cardinals    73%74.5¢
  5. Lions over Vikings    62%62.5¢
  6. Jaguars over Colts    81%80.5¢
  7. Jets over Raiders    55%52.5¢
  8. Steelers over Browns    62%64.5¢
  9. Buccaneers over Falcons    59%55.5¢
  10. Rams over Chargers    72%73.5¢
  11. Chiefs over Broncos    55%52.5¢
  12. Patriots over Dolphins    73%76.5¢
  13. Commanders over Eagles    70%70.5¢
  14. Seahawks over Bears    60%61.5¢

Winner = the side with the higher published win probability. Once Kalshi prices a game that probability is market-anchored — it is the market’s number, which is why the Model and Kalshi columns sit within a point of each other and why no upset is labelled. Before a market opens it is the model’s own read. The model’s separate opinion is the lean, in points, graded on its own and never published as an edge. Kalshi = the mid price of the winner’s contract, in cents. A straight-up call is not the play — the play on each game is the edge side on its matchup page.

Week 8 is underway. Next up: NFL Week 9 predictions — early lines →

Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model

Thursday edge sheet: all 14 Week 8 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.

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  1. Panthers at Packers — Final: Panthers 19, Packers 27 · model had Packers (62%, pre-game)
  2. Ravens at Bills — QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
  3. Titans at Bengals — Winner: Bengals (86%)
  4. Cardinals at Cowboys — Winner: Cowboys (73%)
  5. Vikings at Lions — Winner: Lions (62%)
  6. Colts at Jaguars — Winner: Jaguars (81%)
  7. Raiders at Jets — Winner: Jets (55%) · The play: Jets ≤ 53¢
  8. Browns at Steelers — Winner: Steelers (62%) · The play: Browns ≤ 36¢
  9. Falcons at Buccaneers — Winner: Buccaneers (59%) · The play: Buccaneers ≤ 56¢
  10. Chargers at Rams — Winner: Rams (72%)
  11. Chiefs at Broncos — Winner: Chiefs (55%)
  12. Patriots at Dolphins — Winner: Patriots (73%) · The play: Dolphins ≤ 24¢
  13. Eagles at Commanders — Winner: Commanders (70%)
  14. Bears at Seahawks — Winner: Seahawks (60%)

All 14 Week 8 games with the published win probability (fair value (books) once priced), the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the model’s own line and the edge.

Who's overrated this week? Experts vs. market → — the Kalshi contracts behind every price are on the Kalshi NFL markets board, and the NFL power ratings are the numbers underneath every model line on this page.

Biggest NFL upsets of 2026, by closing line →

Injury report, by unit: which defenses have lost several starters from the same front seven or secondary this week — the defensive injury cluster board.

Week 8 QB & injury watch

Where a quarterback's status moves our number. An unconfirmed starter gets two lines that collapse to one when the team names him; an unvetted room gets no line until it is.

How to use these pages: what every box on a game page means →

Live: every Week 8 game where our model and Kalshi disagree enough to call. Full edge board →

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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →

W1W2W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11W12W13W14W15W16W17W18
MatchupLineEdge
Panthersat
Packers
Packers −3.5—
Ravensat
Bills
QB pending
Titansat
Bengals
Bengals −12+0pp
Cardinalsat
Cowboys
Cowboys −7-1pp
Vikingsat
Lions
Lions −3.5-0pp
Coltsat
Jaguars
Jaguars −10+1pp
Raidersat
Jets
Jets −1.5+3pp
Brownsat
Steelers
Steelers −3.5-2pp
Falconsat
Buccaneers
Buccaneers −2.5+3pp
Chargersat
Rams
Rams −6.5-2pp
Chiefsat
Broncos
Chiefs −1.5-3pp
Patriotsat
Dolphins
Patriots −7+3pp
Eaglesat
Commanders
Commanders −6-0pp
Bearsat
Seahawks
Seahawks −3-1pp

Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Week 8

Same contracts on both venues · cost to buy after fees · as of 10:41 AM ET

Where Kalshi and Polymarket US differ most this week

  1. Raiders at Jets · Braelon Allen first TD: Kalshi 10.6¢ · Polymarket US 16.9¢ after fees — Kalshi 6.3¢ less
  2. Ravens at Bills · Josh Allen first TD: Kalshi 16.9¢ · Polymarket US 21.1¢ after fees — Kalshi 4.2¢ less
  3. Ravens at Bills · Derrick Henry first TD: Kalshi 18¢ · Polymarket US 22.2¢ after fees — Kalshi 4.2¢ less
  4. Chargers at Rams · Blake Corum first TD: Kalshi 8.5¢ · Polymarket US 11.7¢ after fees — Kalshi 3.2¢ less
  5. Titans at Bengals · Tee Higgins first TD: Kalshi 14.8¢ · Polymarket US 18¢ after fees — Kalshi 3.1¢ less

Not every market is listed on both venues. Each tile prices the market favorite to win on both venues; the strip lists the same-question pairs, across every game this week, where the cost after fees differs most. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee. Prices older than 30 minutes show as no current price.

Week 8 primetime, live

CAR at GB — full breakdown →
PHI at WAS — full breakdown →
CHI at SEA — full breakdown →

Run Week 8 yourself

All tools →
Price GapsPROWhere the best price is right now — Kalshi vs Polymarket US vs the books.→Combo Edge BuilderFREEPrice a same-game combo for this slate — true joint probability, free, no leg cap.→NFL Win ProbabilityFREETurn any spread and total into a win probability and projected score.→Prop BoardLIVEEvery listed player prop, model number against the Kalshi price.→

Rankings NFL power rankings (Week 8)

Week 8 players to watch

All players →

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB

Bijan Robinson

RB

Puka Nacua

WR

Ja'Marr Chase

WR

Jonathan Taylor

RB

James Cook

RB

CeeDee Lamb

WR

Chase Brown

RB

Justin Jefferson

WR

A.J. Brown

WR

Saquon Barkley

RB

Ashton Jeanty

RB

Kenneth Walker III

RB

Omarion Hampton

RB

Javonte Williams

RB

DeVonta Smith

WR

One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

Biggest edges · Live on KalshiEvery NFL edge on the board →
PMP · WK 8 POSITION
Sun, Nov 1
AWAY NE +3.0
vs NE -7
HOME MIA -4.3
Fair (books) · MIA 27% home win prob
Kalshi · MIA 24¢ yes mid
Edge +3.3pp fair − Kalshi
📍 Miami Gardens, FL BUY MIA
PMP · WK 8 POSITION
Sun, Nov 1
AWAY ATL -0.5
vs TB -2.5
HOME TB +0.8
Fair (books) · TB 59% home win prob
Kalshi · TB 56¢ yes mid
Edge +3.2pp fair − Kalshi
📍 Tampa, FL BUY TB
PMP · WK 8 MODEL LINE
Sun, Nov 1
AWAY KC +0.4
vs KC -1.5
HOME DEN +1.8
Fair (books) · DEN 45% home win prob
Kalshi · DEN 48¢ yes mid
Edge -2.8pp fair − Kalshi
📍 Denver, CO NO CALL — model under review

Watch the Week 8 breakdown

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What moved on Kalshi since yesterday

Bengals · Titans at Bengals+1¢86¢Commanders · Eagles at Commanders+1¢71¢Panthers · Panthers at Packers+1¢37¢

Change in the Kalshi contract price for that side to win, in cents of probability, between the two most recent daily captures (as of October 30, 2026). A move is a price change, not a call.

NFL Week 8 predictions — frequently asked

Who does the model pick in NFL Week 8 2026?

The fair value (books) disagrees with the Kalshi price by 2 points net of the book's spread on 4 of 14 Week 8 games. The biggest gap is Patriots at Dolphins, where the pick is the Dolphins at a 27% win probability against a Kalshi price of 24¢. Every game's pick, line and edge is in the board above.

How are these NFL Week 8 predictions made?

Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.

What does the edge on each game mean?

Edge is the published win probability — the fair value (books) once a game is priced — minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means that number has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap clears 2 points net of the book's spread; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.

Who will win each NFL Week 8 game?

The model's straight-up winner in each of the 14 Week 8 games, with its win probability (13 still to play; a game that has kicked off is listed as its pre-game call). Packers over Panthers (62%, pre-game); Ravens at Bills (QB pending); Bengals over Titans (86%); Cowboys over Cardinals (73%); Lions over Vikings (62%); Jaguars over Colts (81%); Jets over Raiders (55%); Steelers over Browns (62%); Buccaneers over Falcons (59%); Rams over Chargers (72%); Chiefs over Broncos (55%); Patriots over Dolphins (73%); Commanders over Eagles (70%); Seahawks over Bears (60%). The winner is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced); an upset is a winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where that number and the price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread.

What are the NFL Week 8 picks straight up?

Week 8 picks straight up: Packers over Panthers (pre-game call), Bengals over Titans, Cowboys over Cardinals, Lions over Vikings, Jaguars over Colts, Jets over Raiders, Steelers over Browns, Buccaneers over Falcons, Rams over Chargers, Chiefs over Broncos, Patriots over Dolphins, Commanders over Eagles, Seahawks over Bears. Ravens at Bills is held until both starting quarterbacks are confirmed (QB pending), so it carries no call yet. Each pick is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced) — the model's straight-up call, not a position. The play on each game is the side where that number and the Kalshi price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread, on its matchup page.

How often are the Week 8 picks updated?

Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.

Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?

Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

Win probabilities are the market-anchored fair value (books) once a game is priced; the model’s own line is the lean. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.