Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints
Sunday, December 27, 2026 · Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Saints by 3.5 in Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints, NFL Week 16 2026 — 61% to win, and Saints 26th of 32, Cardinals 30th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27ARINO yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Saints at 56c or below (or Cardinals at 34c or below) is where the model would take a position.
ARI
-3.6
NO
-2.4
Cardinals
39%
model win prob
Saints
61%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC27ARINOhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Saints at 56c or below, or the Cardinals at 34c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
What the model sees in Cardinals at Saints
The Cardinals travel to face the Saints in Week 16. Our power ratings put the Saints 26th of 32 at -2.4 (Average tier) and the Cardinals 30th at -3.6 (Below Avg tier) — a 1.2-point gap that home field widens to a 3.5-point line on the Saints, 61% to win. It rates as the 5th-widest of the 16 games in Week 16.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Saints offense grades -1.6 (27th of 32) against a Cardinals defense at -2.9 (29th) — 1.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cardinals offense (-0.7, 23rd) meets the Saints defense (-0.5, 14th), a 0.2-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Saints at 7.7 wins (favored in 7 of 17) and the Cardinals at 6.4 (favored in 3) — 1.3 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Saints' schedule and the 10th-hardest on the Cardinals'.
Recent history, for context only: 9 regular-season meetings since 2002, 5-4 in the Cardinals' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Cardinals won 20-13 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Saints are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 61% on the Saints here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27ARINO, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Saints 61%, Cardinals 39%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Saints contracts a buy at 56c or below and Cardinals contracts a buy at 34c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Cardinals vs Saints — frequently asked
Who is favored in Cardinals vs Saints in Week 16?
Our power-rating model favors the Saints by 3.5 points, a 61% win probability over the Cardinals. The Saints rate 26th of 32 (-2.4) and the Cardinals 30th (-3.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27ARINO yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Cardinals vs Saints?
Saints offense (-1.6, 27th of 32) against Cardinals defense (-2.9, 29th) — 1.3 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Cardinals vs Saints?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC27ARINO on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Saints at 56c or below, or the Cardinals at 34c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Saints host the Cardinals?
Arizona Cardinals visit the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, December 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 16, at Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA.
What does the model project for the Saints and Cardinals this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Saints at 7.7 wins (favored in 7) and the Cardinals at 6.4 (favored in 3). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Saints' schedule and 10th-hardest on the Cardinals', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 61% on a team like the Saints?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Saints at 61% over the Cardinals sit in that band, off a 3.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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