Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 18, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, October 18, 2026): Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20 — NFL Week 6, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Colts by 6.5 (72% to win); the Titans won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Colts at 73c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20Final
Model call: MISSOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Colts by 6.5 (72% to win). The Titans won — that call missed.
Closing-line value on the Colts: 0c — we archived the Colts at 73c on Oct 11; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 73c on Oct 18. The market did not move on our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 7 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Indianapolis led 13-0 at halftime at Lucas Oil Stadium and had out-gained Tennessee 232 to 64 in the first half, per the AP, but Daniel Jones threw two interceptions, Jonathan Taylor lost a fumble on the first snap of the third quarter and the Titans scored 26 of the last 33 points for their first win of the season. Chimere Dike’s 58-yard punt return set up Cam Ward’s 8-yard touchdown to Carnell Tate, Oluwafemi Oladejo returned a blocked punt 14 yards for the lead, and Slye kicked a 49-yarder with 2:03 left and a 44-yarder with 43 seconds left. Tennessee gained 186 yards to the Colts’ 399. DraftKings opened Indianapolis −3.5 and closed −6.5; the underdog won outright, and 46 points finished over the closing 43.5 and under the opening 48.5.
Titans 26—Colts 20
Final✗ Call missedThe chip reads a miss. It grades our stored probability, which had Indianapolis at 71.7%: the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 6.5-point line, and the Colts lost. The model’s own read was Indianapolis by 6.7, a 0.2-point lean toward the Colts, tier NONE, and Tennessee won by six: the lean was wrong, though at a fifth of a point it was effectively the market’s number. The quarterback gate read PASS. The ledger holds no position on this game, and it is worth saying plainly why. A MODERATE Titans moneyline row, YES at 25.5¢, was voided Sunday at 15:34 UTC (no_longer_edge) before kickoff, and an earlier LOW Titans row was voided on 2026-10-07 as never published. Tennessee won, and neither row counts in either direction. The final pre-kickoff board carried no PLAY rows on this game. Seventeen visible WATCH rows went 7-10 and are graded apart, never folded into the record. Most of the damage is one ladder: Taylor under 59.5, 69.5, 79.5 and 89.5 rushing yards all lost on 94 yards, while the 99.5 and 109.5 rungs won. Tony Pollard under 49.5 and 59.5 rushing yards lost on 76, and his over 1.5 catches lost on zero from one target. Calvin Ridley over 1.5 catches lost on zero from two targets, Elic Ayomanor over 1.5 lost on one, and Jones under 9.5 rushing yards lost on 30. The wins were Taylor under 2.5 catches (two), Ward under 1.5 touchdown passes (one), Ward under 9.5 rushing yards (seven), Jones under 1.5 touchdown passes (one) and Laquon Treadwell over 1.5 catches (two). Four rows on suppressed stats (three Jones passing-yards strikes and a Pollard touchdown row) were never displayed and count in neither direction.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total fell 5 to 43.5; the game landed on 46.
Q1
Indianapolis’ first possession took 7:01 and reached the Titans’ 6, helped by a 36-yard completion down the left side. Jones then threw short right for Downs and Hooker, back from a concussion, intercepted at the 6. Replay upheld it, and the first quarter ended scoreless.
Q2
A 38-yard Jones completion to Taylor keyed a seven-play, 70-yard drive that ended with a 1-yard touchdown to Alie-Cox. Shrader added a 23-yarder at the end of a 13-play drive, Bynum intercepted Ward’s deep throw for Wan’Dale Robinson, and Shrader made a 47-yarder with 11 seconds left.
AP via ESPN — Titans use special teams plays and defense to rally past Colts 26-20
Q3
Taylor fumbled on the first play of the second half and Simmons recovered at the Indianapolis 33, setting up Slye’s 29-yard field goal. The Colts answered with an 11-play drive that ended when Flott intercepted Jones’ throw for Mallory at the Tennessee 11. Slye then made it 13-6 from 56 yards with 3:21 left in the third.
Q4
Dike returned the first punt of the fourth quarter 58 yards to the Indianapolis 28, and four plays later Ward found Tate for an 8-yard touchdown. On the Colts’ next punt Rigoberto Sanchez was blocked and Oladejo scored from 14 yards for a 20-13 lead with 10:17 left. Taylor’s 4-yard run tied it, a 36-yard pass interference penalty on Cam Taylor-Britt set up Slye’s 49-yarder, the Colts turned it over on downs, and Slye added a 44-yarder before Indianapolis’ last drive ended on downs too.
AP via ESPN — Titans use special teams plays and defense to rally past Colts 26-20
Reporting verified 2026-10-18. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Titans use special teams plays and defense to rally past Colts 26-20 for 1st win of the season
Both quarterbacks are confirmed and the gate has nothing to add, which is fitting for a game neither passing attack is built to decide. Indianapolis is first in the league in rushing efficiency and dead last in the share of its touchdowns that come through the air; Tennessee is third against the run and 32nd in points scored. Ward just took four sacks and his offense ran 54 plays. The matchup is Jonathan Taylor against a front that has been genuinely good, and whether Tennessee’s league-worst scoring offense can stay within reach long enough for that to matter.
Colts run offense · Titans run defense
The strength-on-strength of the week, and the only unit on the field that is good on both sides. Indianapolis leads the NFL in rushing expected points added; it has scored just over a quarter of its touchdowns through the air, the lowest share in the league, and its passing offense is 30th in EPA, so the run game is not a preference, it is the offense. Tennessee’s run defense is third in EPA, which is remarkable for a team that trails constantly — opponents run on 51% of their snaps against it, the second-highest rate anyone faces, because the game script allows it, and it has held up anyway. Jonathan Taylor was a limited participant Wednesday for rest only. The Colts’ interior has its own question: Matt Goncalves left practice for a concussion evaluation. If Tennessee holds Taylor, it forces Daniel Jones into a game he has not played this season; if it does not, the clock does the rest.
Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Titans–Colts Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar)
Titans pass offense · Colts coverage
Indianapolis’s pass defense is bad in general — 8.0 yards an attempt allowed, 29th; 17.5 passing points a game allowed, 28th — and good at one thing, which happens to be the thing Ward is worst at. The Colts play man coverage on 29% of snaps, third-most in the league. Against man, Ward completes 52% at 4.1 yards an attempt, 28th among starters; on throws ten or more yards downfield he completes 40%, 29th. His season high is 222 passing yards and he has cleared 200 once in five games, with a touchdown rate under 2%. The Titans have scored 20 or fewer in every game, 11.6 points a game, and run 54.6 plays a game, both last in the league. Carnell Tate, who leads all rookies in receptions, caught one pass for six yards against Houston a week after 145 against Baltimore. The one Titans edge is that the Colts take the ball away on 3.6% of possessions, the lowest rate in football — Ward can be bad without being punished for it.
Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Titans–Colts Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar)
Colts pass rush · Titans pass protection
Ward was sacked four times by Houston, the most he has taken in a game this season, three of them by Will Anderson Jr. in the fourth quarter, and Saleh called it "a step back as an entire offense, not just Cam." The Titans’ protection has been the running story of Ward’s two seasons, and this week it faces a Colts rush that is itself unsettled: Jaylahn Tuimoloau left Wednesday’s practice for a concussion evaluation, Arden Key is on the report, and Laiatu Latu is the one edge rusher who was not listed. Tennessee did not list a single offensive lineman on Wednesday, so the line it ran out against Houston is the line it runs out here. The Colts’ own protection is the quieter half: Jalen Travis did not practise with an ankle and Goncalves is in the protocol, and Jones — 1.8 yards a carry on his own runs, returning from an Achilles — is not a quarterback who escapes a collapsing pocket.
Source: Heavy — Robert Saleh makes Cam Ward statement after struggles in the Week 5 loss
Colts pass offense · Titans coverage
Jones landed on the Colts’ report for the first time this season on Wednesday with an ankle and practised in full, so he plays — but what he does when he plays is the question. He is at 5.8 yards an attempt, 29th, with a 1.7% touchdown rate, 30th, and has not reached seven yards an attempt in any game; his best weekly finish is 23rd. The receivers around him are a patchwork: Alec Pierce is on injured reserve, Ashton Dulin is sidelined with a hamstring, Josh Downs was limited with rest and a hamstring, and Keenan Allen sat for rest. Darius Slayton practised in full after a knee injury against Pittsburgh. The matchup is kind: Tennessee allows a 73.9% completion rate, 31st, and 7.8 yards an attempt, 26th, and both Baltimore and Houston threw more than expected against it. Its secondary is also down — Amani Hooker is in the concussion protocol and Kevin Winston Jr. did not practise. The Titans allow a 3.4% touchdown rate, tenth, which with Jones’s 1.7% suggests a long afternoon of field goals.
Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Titans–Colts Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar)
Reporting verified 2026-10-15. Further sources: tennesseetitans.com — Week 6 injury report, Titans at Colts (2026-10-14) · tennesseetitans.com — Quick hits on the Titans from Wednesday of Colts week · Colts On SI — Colts open Week 6 with several key names on the injury report · NBC Sports ProFootballTalk — Colts list Daniel Jones as full practice participant with ankle injury · Sharp Football Analysis — Titans–Colts Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar) · Heavy — Robert Saleh makes Cam Ward statement after struggles in the Week 5 loss · Yardbarker — Stock up, stock down in the Texans’ 26-3 win over the Titans (Anderson’s three sacks) · SI — Titans vs Colts Week 6 preview (records, Ward season line) · ESPN — 2026 NFL standings (used in place of Pro Football Reference, which 403’d this session)
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
TEN
-4.9
IND
-1.6
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Titans
28%
fair value (books)
Colts
72%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
29%
Madden 27
71%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
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Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20 — the graded call is above.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts is a AFC South game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 15. The model has the Colts by 6.5 (68%) off a -1.6 to -4.9 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the AFC South, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Colts offense grades -0.6 (21st of 32) against a Titans defense at -2.3 (26th) — 1.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Titans offense (-2.9, 31st) meets the Colts defense (-1.8, 22nd), a 1.1-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC South games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 15, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC South race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Colts at 6.7 wins (favored in 7 of 17) and the Titans at 4.5 (favored in 1) — 2.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Colts' schedule and the 8th-hardest on the Titans'. It is the softest spot on the Colts' entire schedule.
One team has owned this series: the Colts are 34-14 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Colts won 38-14 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Colts are 4-0. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favorites went 68%. The 68% on the Colts here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18TENIND, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Full division picture on the AFC South hub.
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This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 72% for the Colts. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
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|---|---|---|
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Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20 — final, played Sunday, October 18, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Colts by 6.5 (72% to win), and the Titans won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Colts by 6.5 points, a 72% win probability over the Titans. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT18TENIND market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC South teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 15. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Colts by 6.5 on ratings and home field alone.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT18TENIND on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Colts at 70c or below, or the Titans at 26c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Tennessee Titans visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, October 18, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 6, at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Colts at 6.7 wins (favored in 7) and the Titans at 4.5 (favored in 1). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Colts' schedule and 8th-hardest on the Titans', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18TENIND, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 6 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT18TENIND has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Colts at 68% over the Titans sit in that band, off a 6.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Our model puts it at 28% against a market price implying 27%, an edge of +1.3 points. Model 28% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 27% on TEN — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.
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They run it back in Week 15. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Titans–Colts, Week 15 →
Seahawks at BroncosModel: even
Texans at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −2.5
Bears at FalconsModel: Falcons −0.5
Ravens at BrownsModel: Browns −4.5
Jets at PatriotsModel: Patriots −8.5
Saints at GiantsModel: Giants −0.5
Panthers at EaglesModel: Panthers −1.5
Steelers at BuccaneersModel: Steelers −2
Cardinals at RamsModel: Rams −9.5
Chargers at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −5.5
Bills at RaidersModel: Bills −3
Cowboys at PackersModel: Packers −4.5
Commanders at 49ersModel: 49ers −7The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
