New York Giants vs Houston Texans
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 25, 2026 · NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Texans by 5.5 in New York Giants vs Houston Texans, NFL Week 7 2026 — 65% to win, and Texans 9th of 32, Giants 22nd. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25NYGHOU yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Texans at 60c or below (or Giants at 30c or below) is where the model would take a position.
NYG
-1.3
HOU
+2.0
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Giants
35%
model win prob
Texans
65%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
37%
Madden 27
63%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT25NYGHOU hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Texans at 60c or below, or the Giants at 30c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Giants at Texans
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Texans −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Texans −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Texans −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Texans −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Texans −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Texans −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Texans −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Texans −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Texans −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Texans −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
What the model sees in Giants at Texans
The Giants travel to face the Texans in Week 7. Our power ratings put the Texans 9th of 32 at +2.0 (Playoff tier) and the Giants 22nd at -1.3 (Average tier) — a 3.3-point gap that home field widens to a 5.5-point line on the Texans, 65% to win. It rates as the 14th-widest of the 14 games in Week 7.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Texans grade +2.6 on that side of the ball (1st of 32) against a Giants offense at +0.8 (14th) — 1.8 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Texans offense (-1.3, 25th) meets the Giants defense (-2.2, 27th), a 0.9-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Texans grade +0.7, 8th in the league, against +0.1 (29th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Texans at 9.3 wins (favored in 12 of 17) and the Giants at 7.7 (favored in 6) — 1.6 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Texans' schedule and the 5th-hardest on the Giants'.
One team has owned this series: the Giants are 5-1 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Giants won 24-16 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Texans are 0-4. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 65% on the Texans here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25NYGHOU, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Texans 65%, Giants 35%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Texans contracts a buy at 60c or below and Giants contracts a buy at 30c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Giants vs Texans on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT25NYGHOU
- Market-implied (Texans)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Texans)
- 65%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25NYGHOU yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Texans at 60c or below, or the Giants at 30c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Giants vs Texans trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Texans | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Giants vs Texans — frequently asked
Who is favored in Giants vs Texans in Week 7?
Our power-rating model picks the Texans by 5.5 points, a 65% win probability over the Giants, for a projected score of Texans 24, Giants 19 on a ratings-implied 43.1-point total. The Texans rate 9th of 32 (+2.0) and the Giants 22nd (-1.3); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25NYGHOU yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Giants vs Texans?
Giants offense (+0.8, 14th of 32) against Texans defense (+2.6, 1st) — 1.8 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Texans (+0.7, 8th).
How do you take a position on Giants vs Texans?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT25NYGHOU on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Texans at 60c or below, or the Giants at 30c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Texans host the Giants?
New York Giants visit the Houston Texans on Sunday, October 25, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 7, at NRG Stadium, Houston, TX.
What does the model project for the Texans and Giants this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Texans at 9.3 wins (favored in 12) and the Giants at 7.7 (favored in 6). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Texans' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Giants', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Giants vs Texans?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25NYGHOU yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Texans at 60c or below or the Giants at 30c or below, off a 5.5-point line.
Can you trade Giants vs Texans on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 7 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT25NYGHOU. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 65% on a team like the Texans?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Texans at 65% over the Giants sit in that band, off a 5.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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