Updated · model ratings
Forked Sun 10/18 – Wed 10/21 on Jameis Winston; collapsed when the club named J.J. McCarthy after Wednesday's practice.
Sunday, October 25, 2026 · NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, October 25, 2026): New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21 (OT) — NFL Week 7, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Texans by 10.5 (82% to win); the Giants won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Texans at 81c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21 (OT)Final / OT
Model call: MISSOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Texans by 10.5 (82% to win). The Giants won — that call missed.
Closing-line value on the Texans: +4c — we archived the Texans at 77c on Oct 18; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 81c on Oct 25. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 8 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
New York won as a 10-point underdog on its first possession of overtime: Skattebo broke a 42-yard run and Singletary went the last 30 on the next play. McCarthy, starting after John Harbaugh benched Jameis Winston, completed 20 of 28 for 252 yards, and Skattebo ran 17 times for 124 as Houston allowed a season-high 188 rushing yards. C.J. Stroud threw for a season-low 153 yards; his 3-yard touchdown to Xavier Hutchinson tied it with 52 seconds left in regulation, and the Texans went three-and-out to open overtime. DraftKings opened Houston a 5.5-point favorite and closed it at 10; the Giants won outright, and 48 points finished over a 43.5 total that never moved.
Giants 27—Texans 21
Final / OT✗ Call missedThe chip reads a miss. It grades our stored probability, which had Houston at 82.4% (New York 17.6%): the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 10.5-point line. New York won in overtime. The quarterback gate read ADJUSTED: the Giants fork collapsed on 2026-10-21, when McCarthy was named the starter. The model’s own read was Houston by 5.0, a 5.5-point lean toward the Giants. That is REVIEW tier, a lean of 5 points or more, which the board masks before kickoff, so it was never shown as a call and is not graded here in either direction, even though New York won outright. The ledger held no row on this game. The final pre-kickoff board carried no PLAY rows. Twenty visible WATCH rows went 15-5 and are graded apart, never folded into the record. Dalton Schultz won all five (2.5 and 3.5 catches, 19.5, 24.5 and 29.5 receiving yards) on five catches for 45, Isaiah Likely’s four unders (39.5 and 49.5 yards, 4.5 and 5.5 catches) won on two for 12, Tyrone Tracy Jr.’s three rushing unders (19.5 through 29.5) won on 15, and Malachi Fields, Hutchinson and Jaylin Noel each won an over 1.5 catches. The losses: Noel over 2.5 catches (two; he left in the fourth quarter with a toe injury, per the AP), Kayshon Boutte, Darnell Mooney and Tracy over 1.5 catches (one each), and Skattebo over 4.5 receiving yards (minus 3). No row on this game was on a suppressed stat.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that lost.
Q1
Ka’imi Fairbairn opened the scoring from 58 yards. Malik Nabers’s 42-yard catch set up Tracy’s 2-yard touchdown run on the next play for a 7-3 Giants lead, and Dominic Zvada missed from 56, wide right, late in the quarter.
AP via ESPN — Singletary’s 30-yard run in OT gives Giants 27-21 win over Texans
Q2
Fairbairn added a 57-yarder, McCarthy found Thomas Fidone II open for 29 yards, and Winston plunged in from the 1 for a 14-6 lead. Stroud answered with a 90-yard drive, a 6-yard touchdown to Marvin Harrison Jr. in his second game as a Texan and a 2-point throw to Cade Stover to tie it at 14 with 34 seconds left. Zvada then missed from 44, wide right.
AP via ESPN — Singletary’s 30-yard run in OT gives Giants 27-21 win over Texans
Q4
New York’s 14-play, 80-yard drive spanned the third and fourth quarters and ended with Skattebo breaking several tackles on a 16-yard touchdown run, celebrated with a backflip, for a 21-14 lead with 8:55 left. Houston punted on its first three possessions of the second half before Stroud’s 3-yard touchdown to Hutchinson tied it with 52 seconds to go.
AP via ESPN — Singletary’s 30-yard run in OT gives Giants 27-21 win over Texans
Overtime
Houston got the ball first in overtime and went three-and-out, Kayvon Thibodeaux dropping a possible interception on second down. Skattebo ran 42 yards on second down and Singletary went the last 30 on the next play, two weeks after Skattebo’s overtime fumble against Washington cost the Giants a chance to win. “This week, I made sure I took care of it,” Skattebo said.
AP via ESPN — Singletary’s 30-yard run in OT gives Giants 27-21 win over Texans
Reporting verified 2026-10-25. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Singletary’s 30-yard run in OT gives Giants 27-21 win over Texans
The Giants named J.J. McCarthy their starter on Wednesday after Jameis Winston was benched late in the Week 6 loss. He makes his first start behind an offensive line whose three tackles all missed practice, against a Houston front third in the league in sacks. Our line on this game is QB-adjusted for McCarthy, so the lean is capped at WATCH and no game-line position publishes.
Quarterback rooms · the injury and practice picture
John Harbaugh named McCarthy the Week 7 starter after Wednesday’s practice at the Quest Diagnostics Training Center, with Winston the backup and Jake Haener the emergency third quarterback. Harbaugh’s framing: "What gives us the best chance to be our best?", and "as we go forward here, this is going to be our direction". Three days earlier he had said only that the club was "working through that now, honing in on a decision". The reason: Winston was benched early in the fourth quarter of the Week 6 loss after his second interception, and McCarthy threw for 243 yards on eleven of twenty-one in just over eleven minutes, with a touchdown and an interception on his first drive, plus 26 rushing yards, leading three scoring drives from 34-10 down. Winston’s season: five games, four starts, 57 percent completions, a career-low 6.1 yards an attempt, seven touchdowns against five interceptions, twenty-ninth of fifty-six quarterbacks in expected points per play. Jaxson Dart, the quarterback the Giants’ rating was originally built on, is out for the season with a knee injury suffered in Week 2. Because our rating was built on Dart, the line on this page carries a quarterback adjustment for McCarthy. The model counts him as a starter-caliber quarterback rather than a backup, so it marks the Giants down less than it would for a true backup. On an adjusted room the lean is capped at WATCH and no game-line position publishes.
Texans pass rush · Giants pass protection
This is the decisive matchup and it needs no model. Houston has eighteen sacks, third in the league. New York’s Andrew Thomas (groin), Jermaine Eluemunor (calf) and Marcus Mbow (knee) all did not practice on Wednesday — the entire tackle rotation. A quarterback making his first start of the season behind that is the whole story of the game, and it is the kind of mismatch that does not care what any rating says. The qualifier in New York’s favor is that Houston’s own tackle room is compromised too: Trent Brown (wrist) and Blake Fisher (thumb) both missed Wednesday, and we could not establish who starts there.
Source: giants.com — Giants vs Texans Week 7 injury report (2026-10-21, 4:00 p.m.)
Texans pass offense · Giants coverage
Houston has twenty-five pass plays of twenty-plus yards, tied for most in the league, and C.J. Stroud is posting career bests in expected points per dropback and success rate on 1,714 passing yards, second in the league, with nine touchdowns against one interception. The Giants’ coverage numbers look good and are good in a specific, limited way: fifth in yards an attempt, fourth in yards a completion, fifth in passing yards a game, and only one passer has reached two hundred yards against them. But they allow a passing touchdown on 6.3 percent of attempts, twenty-seventh — a defense that concedes little between the twenties and then gives up the score, which is the worst possible shape against an offense built on explosives. New York was also without Jevón Holland and Greg Newsome II in concussion protocol on Wednesday.
Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Giants vs Texans Week 7 worksheet (Rich Hribar, 2026-10-21)
Reporting verified 2026-10-22. Further sources: giants.com — J.J. McCarthy to start at quarterback in Week 7 at Houston (2026-10-21) · giants.com — Week 7 tracker: latest news, notes, roster moves (2026-10-21) · giants.com — Giants vs Texans Week 7 injury report (2026-10-21) · NFL.com — Giants to start J.J. McCarthy at quarterback in Week 7 vs Texans · Pro Football Rumors — Giants plan to start J.J. McCarthy in Week 7 (2026-10-21, 11:11 a.m.) · amNY — Giants-Texans preview (2026-10-21, 5:14 p.m.) · Sharp Football Analysis — Giants vs Texans Week 7 worksheet (2026-10-21) · Fox Sports — 2026 defense rankings, through Week 6 (2026-10-20)
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
NYG
-0.7
HOU
+0.5
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Giants
18%
fair value (books)
Texans
82%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
37%
Madden 27
63%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Written before the game and kept as published. Final: New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21 (OT) — the graded call is above.
The Giants travel to face the Texans in Week 7. Our power ratings put the Texans 15th of 32 at +0.5 (Average tier) and the Giants 20th at -0.7 (Average tier) — a 1.2-point gap that home field and the quarterback situation turn into a 5-point line on the Texans, 64% to win. It rates as the 5th-widest of the 14 games in Week 7. One input in this line is not a rating: the Giants are without their usual starting quarterback (J.J. McCarthy starts), and our QB-out term moves the line 1.3 points toward the Texans — already inside the number above.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Texans offense grades +0.4 (16th of 32) against a Giants defense at -1.4 (19th) — 1.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Giants offense (+0.7, 13th) meets the Texans defense (-0.4, 13th), a 1.1-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Texans grade +0.6, 7th in the league, against +0.1 (27th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Texans at 7.3 wins (favored in 10 of 17) and the Giants at 9.8 (favored in 7) — 2.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Texans' schedule and the 4th-hardest on the Giants'.
One team has owned this series: the Giants are 5-1 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Giants won 24-16 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Texans are 0-4. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favorites went 59%. The 64% on the Texans here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT25NYGHOU, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 82% for the Texans. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Texans | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
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19:28NFL Week 5 Best Investments: Favorites, Underdogs, Overs, Unders, and Props!Oct 8, 2026New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21 (OT) — final, played Sunday, October 25, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Texans by 10.5 (82% to win), and the Giants won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Texans by 10.5 points, a 82% win probability over the Giants. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT25NYGHOU market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Texans offense (+0.4, 16th of 32) against Giants defense (-1.4, 19th) — 1.8 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Texans (+0.6, 7th).
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT25NYGHOU on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Texans at 80c or below, or the Giants at 16c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
New York Giants visit the Houston Texans on Sunday, October 25, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 7, at NRG Stadium, Houston, TX.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Texans at 7.3 wins (favored in 10) and the Giants at 9.8 (favored in 7). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Texans' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Giants', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT25NYGHOU, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 7 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT25NYGHOU has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
Our model puts it at 82% against a market price implying 81%, an edge of +1.4 points. Model 82% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 81% on HOU — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.
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Patriots at BearsModel: Bears −2.5
Steelers at SaintsModel: Steelers −2.5
49ers at FalconsModel: 49ers −2
Bengals at RavensModel: Bengals −1.5
Buccaneers at PanthersModel: Panthers −3
Colts at VikingsModel: Vikings −4
Dolphins at JetsModel: Jets −4.5
Browns at TitansModel: Browns −1
Broncos at CardinalsModel: Broncos −2.5
Packers at LionsModel: Lions −1.5
Rams at RaidersModel: Rams −2.5
Chiefs at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −5
Cowboys at EaglesModel: Cowboys −1The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
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