New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

Sunday, November 29, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Jets

40%

model win prob

Dolphins

60%

model win prob

Model line

Dolphins −3.5

Kalshi (Dolphins)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Dolphins — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

New York Jets-3.029thBelow Avg

Miami Dolphins-2.026thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 12, the New York Jets travel to face the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Dolphins 26th of 32 (Average tier, -2.0) and the Jets 29th (Below Avg tier, -3.0). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Dolphins by 3.5 — a 60% win probability for the Dolphins.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 60% (Dolphins) / 40% (Jets) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

This is a AFC East divisional game — both teams meet twice in 2026, and division results carry the tiebreakers that decide the AFC East race. Track the full division on the AFC East hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Jets vs Dolphins — frequently asked

Who is favored in Jets vs Dolphins in Week 12?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Dolphins by 3.5 points and gives them a 60% win probability over the Jets. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Jets vs Dolphins?

Home win probability 60% (Dolphins), away 40% (Jets). That comes from a power-rating differential of +1.0 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Dolphins rate 26th of 32 (Average tier), the Jets 29th (Below Avg tier).

Can you trade Jets vs Dolphins on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.