New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins
Sunday, November 29, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Dolphins by 3.5 in New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins, NFL Week 12 2026 — 60% to win, and the second AFC East meeting of the year. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NYJMIA yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Dolphins at 55c or below (or Jets at 35c or below) is where the model would take a position.
NYJ
-4.0
MIA
-3.0
Jets
40%
model win prob
Dolphins
60%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NYJMIAhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Dolphins at 55c or below, or the Jets at 35c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
The rematch: what the model sees the second time around
This is the second meeting. The Jets and Dolphins already played in Week 7, and now the Jets make the return trip in Week 12. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: -3.0 against -4.0, plus home field, equals the Dolphins by 3.5 (60%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings — a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.
No unit matchup in this game separates by even a point on our scale. The Dolphins grade -1.3 on offense (25th of 32) and -2.5 on defense (28th); the Jets -3.1 (30th) and -2.2 (27th). Evenly-graded units on both sides of the ball is exactly the profile that produces a model line built from nothing but home field, though special teams does tilt to the Jets (+1.3, 1st).
On the standings side, AFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 7, so a season sweep is on the table here on the AFC East race.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 6.7 projected wins for the Dolphins against 6.5 for the Jets, favored in 4 and 4 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 17th-hardest on the Dolphins' schedule and 10th-hardest on the Jets'. It is the softest spot on the Dolphins' entire schedule.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 28-20 in the Dolphins' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Dolphins won 34-10 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Dolphins are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 60% on the Dolphins here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NYJMIA, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Dolphins 60%, Jets 40%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Dolphins contracts a buy at 55c or below and Jets contracts a buy at 35c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC East hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Jets vs Dolphins — frequently asked
Who is favored in Jets vs Dolphins in Week 12?
Our power-rating model favors the Dolphins by 3.5 points, a 60% win probability over the Jets. The Dolphins rate 28th of 32 (-3.0) and the Jets 31st (-4.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NYJMIA yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC East result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC East teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 7. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Dolphins by 3.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Jets vs Dolphins?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NYJMIA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Dolphins at 55c or below, or the Jets at 35c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Dolphins host the Jets?
New York Jets visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, November 29, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 12, at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL.
What does the model project for the Dolphins and Jets this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Dolphins at 6.7 wins (favored in 4) and the Jets at 6.5 (favored in 4). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Dolphins' schedule and 10th-hardest on the Jets', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 60% on a team like the Dolphins?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Dolphins at 60% over the Jets sit in that band, off a 3.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 7. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Jets–Dolphins, Week 7 →
More Week 12 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.