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Home/NFL/Week 8/Bears vs Seahawks
Gridiron EdgeWeek 8 · 2026

Bears vs Seahawks Prediction — Week 8, Mon Nov 2

Updated · market price

Week 8 game-week updates

  • · Kalshi: Seahawks 62¢ to win, +1¢ since yesterday, −10¢ since the market opened October 20, 2026.
  • · Lines: Seahawks −3 is the median across 9 books, moved from Seahawks −4.5 on the earliest line we archived (DraftKings, Sep 9).

Monday, November 2, 2026 · Lumen Field, Seattle, WA

Quick Answer

As of October 30, 2026, Kalshi implies 62% for the Seahawks in Chicago Bears vs Seattle Seahawks, NFL Week 8 2026, while the market line has the Seahawks by 3 (60% to win) — a 1.0pp agreement. Inside our floor for a position — no position. The PredictionMarketsPicks model's own line is Seahawks by 3.5 against a market line of Seahawks by 3.0 — a 0.4-point lean toward the Seahawks, graded separately from any position.

Every NFL edge on the board →

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Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 8 · 2026-10-30

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Bears moneylineModel 40% vs market 39% on CHI.Market-anchored fair value: CHI 40% (+0.5pp)38.5c40%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Chicago’s top-ranked rushing attack runs into the league’s second-best defense

Chicago is 5-2 after a 30-24 win over New England, with Caleb Williams back from a hamstring injury that cost him three games. Seattle is 4-3 after a 20-3 win over Kansas City that showcased its defense. The Bears lead the league in rushing but have slumped over three games, while Seattle is without left tackle Charles Cross and leans on Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Both quarterback rooms clear our gate, with two open items noted below.

Quarterback gate · Practice and availability notes

Injury and practice picture

Close to even

The quarterback gate reads PASS on both sides. Caleb Williams has played the last two games with no sign of a lingering hamstring problem, throwing for 308 yards against New England. We found no listing for Sam Darnold. The Bears did not have to file a report until Thursday, so their Week 8 practice picture is open. The bigger news is on the lines and in the backfield: Seattle left tackle Charles Cross has a high-ankle sprain and is expected to miss time, with guard Quenton Nelson newly acquired from the Colts. Chicago running back Kyle Monangai (toe) has missed three games, and tight end Cole Kmet is on injured reserve.

Williams (CHI)
Played the last two games; 22 of 33, 308 yards, 2 TD vs. New England — DAZN, 2026-10-28
Darnold (SEA)
Starter; no injury listing found — Yahoo Sports / Athlon, 2026-10-28
Cross (SEA LT)
High-ankle sprain; hope is 1-2 weeks, Week 8 appears unlikely — Chicity Sports, 2026-10-26
Monangai (CHI RB)
Toe, missed three games, absent from open practice Tuesday — Chicago Sun-Times, 2026-10-27
Kmet (CHI TE)
Injured reserve — DAZN, 2026-10-28

Source: Chicago Sun-Times — Bears practice report: RB Kyle Monangai still out (2026-10-27)

Bears rushing attack · Seahawks run defense

The Bears’ rushing attack against Seattle’s front seven

Edge: Seahawks

Chicago still ranks first in rushing at 154.3 yards per game, but that is down from nearly 200 after 295 yards across three games against Green Bay, Atlanta and New England, the worst stretch of the Ben Johnson era. D’Andre Swift has not topped 100 yards since the opener, and Monangai has missed three games. Seattle ranks sixth against the run, is second in the league in defensive EPA, and held Kansas City to a season-low 50 rushing yards. Chicago’s answer is Williams, who has thrown for more than 300 yards in the past two games and can extend plays, so the Bears do not have to win on the ground to move the ball.

Bears rushing
154.3 yards per game, first in the NFL, down from nearly 200 — Chicago Sun-Times, 2026-10-28
Last three games
295 rushing yards vs. GB, ATL and NE — Chicago Sun-Times, 2026-10-28
Seattle run defense
Sixth against the run; held KC to 50 rush yards — Chicago Sun-Times, 2026-10-28
Seattle defense
Second in EPA — Yahoo Sports / Athlon, 2026-10-28
Swift (CHI RB)
124 yards and 3 TD in Week 1, no 100-yard game since — Chicago Sun-Times, 2026-10-28

Source: Chicago Sun-Times — Bears look to bust slump in rushing attack (2026-10-28)

Seahawks passing game · Bears pass rush

Darnold and Smith-Njigba against Chicago’s pass defense

Close to even

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 58 catches for 867 yards and eight touchdowns, with 150 yards against Kansas City, and has passed 100 yards in six of Seattle’s seven games. Darnold is the weak point: an NFL-high eight interceptions on 7.3 yards per attempt, and Seattle ranks 18th in dropback EPA. Chicago has 19 sacks and Darnold has been sacked or trapped 14 times, and the Bears’ defense is tied for 11th in dropback EPA allowed. With Cross out, Josh Jones played 13 snaps at left tackle against Kansas City and graded 70.2, while Seattle’s interior guards graded poorly. Nelson’s role is unconfirmed.

Smith-Njigba (SEA WR)
58 catches, 867 yards, 8 TD; 100+ yards in six of seven games — ClutchPoints / DAZN, 2026-10-28
Darnold (SEA)
NFL-high 8 INT; 7.3 yards per attempt — Yahoo Sports / Athlon, 2026-10-28
Chicago pass rush
19 sacks; Darnold sacked or trapped 14 times — ClutchPoints, 2026-10-28
Seattle left tackle
Josh Jones, 13 snaps vs. KC, 70.2 PFF grade — Yahoo Sports / Athlon, 2026-10-28
Seattle offense
18th in dropback EPA; 29th in EPA per rush — Yahoo Sports / Athlon, 2026-10-28

Source: Yahoo Sports / Athlon — Sam Darnold Has an All-Pro Guard Now (2026-10-28)

What this read does not know

  • We could not find Chicago’s Week 8 Wednesday report. The Sun-Times reported on 2026-10-27 that the Bears did not have to file until Thursday, so Williams’s practice status this week is not confirmed. His last confirmed clean status is off the report as of 10/19. (https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2026/10/27/bears-practice-report-kyle-monangai-zavier-scott-seahawks-walk-through)
  • We found no current Sam Darnold injury status in either direction. No listing appeared in the sources we read, which is absence of evidence rather than a clean bill of health. Seattle’s Wednesday report was not retrieved. (https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/sam-darnold-pro-guard-now-174500505.html)
  • Cross, Nelson and Monangai are all unsettled. Cross is expected to miss time but no designation exists, Seattle’s coach was noncommittal on Nelson, and Monangai’s availability is not guaranteed. (https://www.chicitysports.com/chicago-bears-pass-rushers-paying-close-attention-seahawks-injury-update/)
  • Some figures come from secondary previews. The sack total, Darnold’s sacked-or-trapped count and Smith-Njigba’s 100-yard games come from ClutchPoints and DAZN rather than a stat feed. (https://clutchpoints.com/nfl/nfl-stories/bears-seahawks-bold-predictions-week-8-monday-night-football)

Reporting verified 2026-10-29. Further sources: Chicago Sun-Times — Bears practice report: RB Kyle Monangai still out (2026-10-27) · Chicago Sun-Times — Bears look to bust slump in rushing attack (2026-10-28) · Yahoo Sports / Athlon — Sam Darnold Has an All-Pro Guard Now (2026-10-28) · Chicity Sports — Bears pass rushers paying close attention to Seahawks injury update (2026-10-26) · DAZN — Bears vs. Seahawks Week 8 preview (2026-10-28) · ClutchPoints — Bears vs. Seahawks Week 8 preview (2026-10-28)

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

Bears vs Seahawks: where the prop prices are How prop price gaps work →

The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — our Oracle calls are the opinion.

No Kalshi strike in this game is 5¢+ off the sportsbooks right now — the market agrees with itself.

Bears vs Seahawks: where the prop prices are — Kalshi mid vs sportsbook consensus per strike, widest gap first
PlayerPropKalshiConsensusGapBest price
Caleb Williams225+ pass yds49.5¢51.9%3bk-2.4¢over · Kalshi 52.8¢under · Novig 51¢
Caleb Williams20+ rush yds52.5¢53.9%3bk-1.4¢over · Kalshi 55.7¢under · Novig 49¢
Sam DarnoldQB5+ rush yds50.5¢51.3%6bk-0.8¢over · Novig 52.6¢under · Novig 50¢
Luther Burden50+ rec yds53.5¢53.8%3bk-0.3¢over · Kalshi 55.7¢under · Novig 48.1¢
Jaxon Smith-Njigba100+ rec yds51.0¢50.8%4bk+0.2¢over · ESPN Bet 51.2¢under · Novig 49¢
AJ Barneranytime TD28.0¢—one-sidedover · Novig 29¢under · Kalshi 74.4¢
Caleb Williamsanytime TD16.5¢—one-sidedover · Novig 17¢under · Novig 84¢
Caleb Williams2+ pass TDs40.0¢—no booksKalshi only

Bears vs Seahawks player props — every Kalshi strike vs the books →+ 97 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.

PMP · WK 8 MODEL LINE
Mon, Nov 2
AWAY CHI +3.2
vs SEA -3
HOME SEA +4.1
Fair (books) · SEA 60% home win prob
Kalshi · SEA 62¢ yes mid
Edge -1.0pp fair − Kalshi
📍 Seattle, WA PASS — no position

Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 8 card free, every game priced against the market.

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Bears

40%

fair value (books)

Seahawks

60%

fair value (books)

Market-anchored fair value: CHI 40% (+0.5pp) Combo Edge Builder →

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

43%

Madden 27

57%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

All tools →
Price GapsPROWhere the best price is right now — Kalshi vs Polymarket US vs the books.→Combo Edge BuilderFREEPrice a same-game combo for this slate — true joint probability, free, no leg cap.→NFL Win ProbabilityFREETurn any spread and total into a win probability and projected score.→Prop BoardLIVEEvery listed player prop, model number against the Kalshi price.→

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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →

The Ladder — Bears at Seahawks How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Bears at SeahawksSpreadPRICEDView Seahawks −3.5 on Kalshi →

Kalshi prices Seahawks −3.5 at 47¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.

Headline rung · Seahawks +3.5
YES 74¢NO 27¢
pays 1.4x · books — · Oracle 🔒

Priced. The market and the model tell the same story at every rung.

Legend
  • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
  • book consensus (no-vig)
  • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
  • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

Share this Oracle Ladder

Bears at Seahawks Kalshi spread ladder for Week 8: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
The Bears–Seahawks spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

Bears vs Seahawks power ratings (Week 8) What PWR measures →

TeamRatingRankTier
Chicago Bears+3.22ndPlayoff
Seattle Seahawks+4.11stContender

Bears and Seahawks season outlook

CHISEA
Average wins10.710.1
Make playoffs73%62%
Win division25%22%
Win Super Bowl6.4%7.4%

10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

Bears vs Seahawks player props What YES, NO and the tier mean →

Our projection against the live Kalshi contract. Every prop is an “X or more” contract that pays $1 if the player gets there, so the price of the side we call, in cents,is the market’s implied probability — the edge is the gap between that and ours, in percentage points. Closest strike to our projection first.

Bears vs Seahawks player props — the called side, its Kalshi price and our tier on the strike closest to our projection; our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated
PlayerContractCallOur oddsMktTier
Sam DarnoldQB5+ rush ydsover 4.5YESPro subscribers onlyPro subscribers onlyMODERATE

All 31 player-prop edges for Week 8 →Locked numbers are Pro.

Bears vs Seahawks — player pages

All players →

Sam Darnold

QB — Rush Yds

D'Andre Swift

RB

Rome Odunze

WR

Colston Loveland

TE

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR

Luther Burden III

WR

Caleb Williams

QB

Kyle Monangai

RB

Rashid Shaheed

WR

Zach Charbonnet

RB

AJ Barner

TE

Emanuel Wilson

RB

CHI Bears D/ST

Cooper Kupp

Eric Saubert

Kalif Raymond

Roschon Johnson

Sam Roush

SEA Seahawks D/ST

Tory Horton

One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

A 3-day rest edge, sized: Bears at Seahawks

How this read is built →

The Bears come in with 3 more days off — 8 days' rest for the Seahawks against 11 days' rest for the Bears. We measured what that is worth across 3,120 games since 2013: about a tenth of a point per day, so roughly 0.3 points here. The market already charges for rest — closing lines move about 0.14 points per day of it — and rested teams have not beaten the close for it. The rest gap is real but small. What moves this game is the 0.9-point ratings gap, which has the Seahawks by 3.5, 59% to win.

The Bears come in off the Patriots, the Seahawks off the Chiefs. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.

No unit matchup in this game separates by even a point on our scale. The Seahawks grade +0.6 on offense (14th of 32) and +2.3 on defense (2nd); the Bears +2.5 (6th) and +0.2 (7th). Evenly-graded units on both sides of the ball is exactly the profile that produces a model line built from nothing but home field, though special teams does tilt to the Seahawks (+1.1, 1st).

Season-long, the model can barely split them: 10.1 projected wins for the Seahawks against 10.7 for the Bears, favored in 14 and 14 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 6th-hardest on the Seahawks' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Bears'. Nothing on the Bears' schedule projects harder than this one.

Scheduling note: this is a Monday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.

Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Seahawks at 59% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV02CHISEA contract implies 62% for the Seahawks against a fair value (books) of 60% — a 1.0-point gap. That is inside our floor for a position (2 points net of the book's spread), so we pass — the market and the fair value are telling the same story.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Bears vs Seahawks on Kalshi

Kalshi event
KXNFLGAME-26NOV02CHISEA
Market-implied (Seahawks)
62c · 62%
Fair value — books (Seahawks)
60%
Fair value vs market
-1.0pp

Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26NOV02CHISEA. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 62c on the Seahawks is an implied 62% — no odds conversion needed. Our books-anchored fair value has 60%, a 1.0pp agreement. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.

Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

Bears vs Seahawks line history

The earliest line we archived, on Sep 9, had the Seahawks −4.5 (DraftKings). The median across 9 books now is the Seahawks −3. On Kalshi the Seahawks trade at 62¢ to win, a 62% implied chance.

BookEarliest line we archivedNowSpread trend
DraftKingsSeahawks −4.5 · O/U 47.5Sep 9Seahawks −3 · O/U 46.5
FanDuelSeahawks −3 · O/U 46.5Oct 20Seahawks −3 · O/U 46.5
BetMGMSeahawks −3 · O/U 47Oct 25Seahawks −3 · O/U 46.5
CaesarsSeahawks −5 · O/U 47.5Sep 9Seahawks −3 · O/U 46.5
BetRiversSeahawks −3 · O/U 46.5Oct 20Seahawks −3 · O/U 46.5
ESPN BETSeahawks −3.5 · O/U 46.5Oct 26Seahawks −3 · O/U 46.5
FanaticsSeahawks −3 · O/U 46.5Oct 28Seahawks −3 · O/U 46.5
NovigSeahawks −3.5 · O/U 46.5Oct 21Seahawks −3.5 · O/U 46.5
ProphetXSeahawks −3 · —Oct 26Seahawks −3 · O/U 46.5
Kalshia contract, not a spreadSeahawks 62¢ to win

Posted spreads and totals as our odds feed recorded them; a row is added only when a book moves its line. “Earliest line we archived” is our first capture, which is not necessarily the market’s open. Spreads are stated for the favorite. The Kalshi price is that exchange’s own moneyline contract.

Where Bears vs Seahawks trades Why the venues differ →

3 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.

VenueSeahawksTrade
Kalshi62% 62cTrade on Kalshi →
Novig62% 62cOpen Novig →
Polymarket USPolymarketPartnerUS exchange — separate book61% 61cOpen Polymarket US →
Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract62% 62cOpen Robinhood →
Coinbasesame Kalshi contract62% 62cOpen Coinbase →
DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Bears at Seahawks

Same contracts on both venues · cost to buy after fees · as of 10:10 AM ET

Game linesKalshi10:10 AM ETPolymarket USPolymarketPartner10:51 AM ETBest price
Bears to win40¢41.7¢ after fees38.8¢40.4¢ after feesPolymarket US1.3¢ less
Seahawks to win62¢63.6¢ after fees61.5¢63.1¢ after feesEven
Seahawks −3.547¢48.7¢ after fees46.5¢48.2¢ after feesEven
Over 46.551¢52.7¢ after fees51¢52.7¢ after feesEven
Player props on both venues
Emanuel Wilson anytime TDno current priceno two-sided book—
Emanuel Wilson 2+ TDsno current priceno two-sided book—
Luther Burden III 20+ rec ydsno current priceno two-sided book—
Caleb Williams anytime TDno current price17¢18¢ after fees—
Jaxon Smith-Njigba first TD15¢15.9¢ after fees14¢14.8¢ after feesPolymarket US1.1¢ less
Sam Darnold 300+ pass ydsno current price22¢23.2¢ after fees—
Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TDno current price53¢54.7¢ after fees—
Luther Burden III 50+ rec ydsno current price57¢58.7¢ after fees—
This game on Kalshi →This game on Polymarket US →

Sponsored by Polymarket US

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/Polymarket%20US%20Rulebook%20(2026.09.30).pdf for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Polymarket US lists 477 other markets for this game that we haven’t matched to a Kalshi contract (first half spread, second half spread, full game spread, receiving yards, full game total).

Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same question: the same team, the same line, the same player, stat and threshold. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 6.95% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max $1.74 per 100. The best-price column compares those costs; it needs a two-sided book on both venues, and a price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.

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<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Bears vs Seahawks, Week 8 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/bears-vs-seahawks-week-08-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

Watch the breakdown: Bears vs Seahawks

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Bears vs Seahawks — frequently asked

Who will win Seahawks vs Bears?

The market line has the Seahawks at 60% to beat the Bears in Week 8.

Who is favored in Bears vs Seahawks in Week 8?

The market line has the Seahawks by 3 points, a 60% win probability over the Bears (our model's own line: Seahawks by 3.5). Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV02CHISEA market implies 62% for the Seahawks — a 1.0pp agreement with the market line.

Does the rest advantage change the model line?

Barely. The Bears have 3 more days off, and across 3,120 games since 2013 a rest day has been worth about a tenth of a point, so roughly 0.3 points here — not the point or two it is often credited with. Closing lines already charge about 0.14 points per rest day, and teams with the edge have not beaten the close for it (48.5% against the spread in the 10-days-vs-7 spot, n=301). The 3.5-point line and 60% win probability are driven by the ratings gap.

How do you take a position on Bears vs Seahawks?

The contract is KXNFLGAME-26NOV02CHISEA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. Seahawks YES is quoted around 62c against a fair value (books) of 60%. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

When and where do the Seahawks host the Bears?

Chicago Bears visit the Seattle Seahawks on Monday, November 2, 2026 — a Monday game in NFL Week 8, at Lumen Field, Seattle, WA.

What does the model project for the Seahawks and Bears this season?

Across all 17 games the model projects the Seahawks at 10.1 wins (favored in 14) and the Bears at 10.7 (favored in 14). This game ranks 6th-hardest on the Seahawks' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Bears', by win probability.

What are the Kalshi odds for Bears vs Seahawks?

Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26NOV02CHISEA. The Seahawks YES contract sits around 62c, which is an implied 62% — against our books-anchored fair value of 60%. That is a 1.0pp agreement, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.

Can you trade Bears vs Seahawks on Kalshi?

Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, and the Week 8 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV02CHISEA. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.

How often does the model win when it is 59% on a team like the Seahawks?

57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Seahawks at 59% over the Bears sit in that band, off a 3.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?

Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

What happens on Kalshi if Bears vs Seahawks ends in a tie?

Your position is not voided. On a team contract with no Tie strike listed, Yes and No holders are each paid 50c a contract, and overtime counts toward the result. A player prop on someone who never plays settles at the last fair price rather than refunding, and a game postponed more than 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Every rule is at predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi/settlement-rules.

Is Bears moneyline worth a position?

Our model puts it at 40% against a market price implying 39%, an edge of +1.0 points. Model 40% vs market 39% on CHI. We pass — no position.

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After this one

Bears: Week 9 vs BuccaneersModel line →Seahawks: Week 9 vs CardinalsModel line →

More Week 8 matchups

Panthers at PackersModel: Packers −5Ravens at BillsModel: Bills −3.5Titans at BengalsModel: Bengals −9.5Cardinals at CowboysModel: Cowboys −6.5Vikings at LionsModel: Lions −2.5Colts at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −7Raiders at JetsModel: Jets −4Browns at SteelersModel: Steelers −3Falcons at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −3.5Chargers at RamsModel: Rams −8.5Chiefs at BroncosModel: Broncos −4Patriots at DolphinsModel: Patriots −5Eagles at CommandersModel: Commanders −7

Full Week 8 board →Next: NFL Week 9 predictions →

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