Chicago Bears vs Seattle Seahawks
Updated Β· model ratings
QB-adjusted: Case Keenum starts for Bears
Monday, November 2, 2026 Β· Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Quick Answer
As of October 14, 2026, PredictionMarketsPicks' model favors the Seahawks by 9 in Chicago Bears vs Seattle Seahawks, NFL Week 8 2026 β 73% to win, and the 7th-widest model gap in Week 8. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV02CHISEA yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Seahawks at 68c or below (or Bears at 22c or below) is where the model would take a position.
CHI
+2.2
SEA
+3.9
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Bears
27%
our model
Seahawks
73%
our model
Run this matchup yourself β Full PWR board for all 32 β Player prop gaps for this game β
43%
Madden 27
57%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV02CHISEA hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Seahawks at 68c or below, or the Bears at 22c or below β a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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Every NFL line that moves before kickoff β before the market catches up
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record β
The Ladder β Bears at Seahawks
All ladders βOur margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30β70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0β100Β’
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) Β· hollow = outside the 30β70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; βpaysβ is 100Β’ Γ· cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright β a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Bears vs Seahawks power ratings (Week 8)
Bears and Seahawks season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings β real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works β
Why the model has the Seahawks by 9
The model does not think this one is close, and the quarterback is a big part of why. On ratings alone the Seahawks rate 1st of 32 at +3.9 and the Bears 7th at +2.2; with home field that is the Seahawks by 4.3. Then the Bears are without their usual starting quarterback (Case Keenum starts), and our QB-out term moves the line 4.6 points toward the Seahawks β 8.8 in all, the Seahawks by 9 on a half-point line and 73% to win. That is the 7th-widest gap among the 14 games on the Week 8 board. A line this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Bears need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.
No unit matchup in this game separates by even a point on our scale. The Seahawks grade +0.5 on offense (14th of 32) and +2.2 on defense (1st); the Bears +1.9 (10th) and -0.1 (11th). Evenly-graded units on both sides of the ball is exactly the profile that produces a model line built from nothing but home field, though special teams does tilt to the Seahawks (+1.2, 1st).
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 10.3 projected wins for the Seahawks against 9.5 for the Bears, favored in 15 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 10th-hardest on the Seahawks' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Bears'. Nothing on the Bears' schedule projects harder than this one.
On the calendar, the Bears are on 11 days and the Seahawks are on 8 days. The Bears come in off the Patriots, the Seahawks off the Chiefs. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.
Scheduling note: this is a Monday game β the only one on the schedule that day β so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 312 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 70-75% range won 71% of those. So a 73% Seahawks number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 29 times in 100 β which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.
There is no market to compare against yet β Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV02CHISEA β and we are not going to invent a price. What the model will say when it opens: Seahawks YES is only worth buying at 68c or below, which is a demanding ask on a side the model already has at 73%. The likelier position on a game this lopsided is the Bears at 22c or below, where the payoff does the work. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks β you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bears vs Seahawks on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV02CHISEA
- Market-implied (Seahawks)
- not listed yet
- Our ratings line (Seahawks)
- 73%
- Model vs market
- β
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV02CHISEA yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Seahawks at 68c or below, or the Bears at 22c or below β a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Bears vs Seahawks trades
Each venueβs own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Seahawks | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet β opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi β |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig β $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer β |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game β international book | Sign-up offer β |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game β US exchange | Sign-up offer β |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood β |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase β |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available β sign-up offer β | Sign-up offer β |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available β sign-up offer β | Sign-up offer β |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available β sign-up offer β | Sign-up offer β |
A price under a venue name is that venueβs own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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Watch the breakdown: Bears vs Seahawks
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Who will win Seahawks vs Bears?
Our model has the Seahawks at 73% to beat the Bears in Week 8.
Who is favored in Bears vs Seahawks in Week 8?
Our power-rating model picks the Seahawks by 9 points, a 73% win probability over the Bears. The Seahawks rate 1st of 32 (+3.9) and the Bears 7th (+2.2); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV02CHISEA yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What would it take for the Bears to win?
The 9-point line comes from a 1.7-point rating gap, 2.5 points of home field and a 4.6-point QB-out term (the Bears without their usual starter), and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it β which is why the Bears still project at 27% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the Bears defense (-0.1, 11th of 32) holding up. Beyond the quarterback term, the model does not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
How do you take a position on Bears vs Seahawks?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV02CHISEA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Seahawks at 68c or below, or the Bears at 22c or below. There is no point spread β you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Seahawks host the Bears?
Chicago Bears visit the Seattle Seahawks on Monday, November 2, 2026 β a Monday game in NFL Week 8, at Lumen Field, Seattle, WA.
What does the model project for the Seahawks and Bears this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Seahawks at 10.3 wins (favored in 15) and the Bears at 9.5 (favored in 11). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Seahawks' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Bears', by win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Bears vs Seahawks?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV02CHISEA yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game β anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Seahawks at 68c or below or the Bears at 22c or below, off a 9-point line.
Can you trade Bears vs Seahawks on Kalshi?
Yes β as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 8 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV02CHISEA. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 73% on a team like the Seahawks?
71% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 β trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input β the model put a team in the 70-75% range 312 times, and those teams won 71% of them. The Seahawks at 73% over the Bears sit in that band, off a 9-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game β result, hit or miss, closing-line value β so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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