Chicago Bears vs Seattle Seahawks

Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Bears come in with 3 more days off than the other side — 8 days' rest for the Seahawks against 11 days' rest for the Bears. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Seahawks by 6 (68%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 3-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.

The Bears come in off the Patriots, the Seahawks off the Chiefs. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.

The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Seahawks offense grades +2.3 (7th of 32) against a Bears defense at -0.9 (19th) — 3.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bears offense (+1.9, 8th) meets the Seahawks defense (+1.8, 4th), a 0.2-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.2, 2nd in the league, against +0.5 (14th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.

Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Seahawks at 10.8 wins (favored in 16 of 17) and the Bears at 8.9 (favored in 11) — 1.9 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 9th-hardest game on the Seahawks' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the Bears'. Nothing on the Bears' schedule projects harder than this one.

Scheduling note: this is a Monday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.

Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 68% on the Seahawks here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.

Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV02CHISEA, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Seahawks 68%, Bears 32%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Seahawks contracts a buy at 63c or below and Bears contracts a buy at 27c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.