Skip to content
THE 7 ORACLESPowered by PredictionMarketsPicks
Pro
NFL EDGES

Live game edges — model vs. Kalshi, ranked

Gridiron Edge · 5-min refresh

NFL 2026

Power rankings, futures & win totals — all 32 teams

FED DESK

Kalshi vs Polymarket vs futures on the next FOMC decision

Fed Rate Tracker · live

COMBO EDGE

Correlation-aware Kalshi combos — free

Home/NFL/Week 5/Giants vs Commanders
Gridiron EdgeWeek 5 · 2026NFC East rivalry

New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27 (OT)

Final. The rematch: Commanders vs Giants, Week 10 →

Updated · model ratings

Forked Tue–Fri on Daniels's elbow; no designation Fri.

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 11, 2026): New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27 (OT) — NFL Week 5, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Commanders by 3.5 (62% to win); the game ended tied, so the call pushed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Commanders at 63c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

New to these pages? Watch the 4-minute guide →

Settled

New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27 (OT)Final / OT

Model call: PUSH

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Commanders by 3.5 (62% to win). The game ended tied, so the call pushed.

Closing-line value on the Commanders: +4c — we archived the Commanders at 59c on Oct 4; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 63c on Oct 11. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 6 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 5 · 2026-10-12

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Giants moneylineModel 38% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 37% on NYG — kept as the pre-game record.37c38%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Giants 27, Commanders 27: Jameis Winston erased a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit, and a scoreless overtime ended with Jayden Daniels going down at the Giants 24

New York and Washington tied 27-27 at Northwest Stadium after an overtime in which neither team scored. Daniels, back from a dislocated left elbow, ran for touchdowns of 38 and 26 yards and Washington led 27-13 with 11:05 left, before Winston hit Isaiah Likely and Malik Nabers for 17-yard scores, the second with 1:43 to go. In overtime Dominic Zvada missed his third field goal, Cam Skattebo was stripped with the Giants in range, and with 12 seconds left Daniels held the ball on a called pass and went down for no gain with no timeouts left. DraftKings opened Washington −2.5 and closed −3.5; the total fell from 48.5 to 41.5, and 54 points cleared both.

Giants 27—Commanders 27

Final / OT⊘ Push

The chip reads a push, which is the only thing it can read after a tie. It grades our stored probability, which had Washington at 62.2% — the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero from a 3.5-point line — and neither team won, so gradeMoneylineCall() returns push rather than a hit or a miss. This was a quarterback-adjusted game on our board (Winston for Dart on the Giants side), so the lean was capped at WATCH and no game-line position could publish; the ledger holds no row on this game at all. The model’s own read was Washington by 6.3, a 2.8-point WATCH lean toward the Commanders. A tie is a margin of zero, on the Giants’ side of 3.5, so the lean was wrong. The player board carried no PLAY row. Nineteen visible WATCH rows went 11-8 and are graded apart from the record. The wins: Daniels over 14.5, 19.5, 24.5 and 29.5 rushing yards (he ran for 103), Najee Harris under 19.5, 24.5, 29.5 and 39.5 rushing yards (nine yards on five carries), Skattebo under 59.5 and 69.5 rushing yards (he ran for 59, so the 59.5 cleared by half a yard), and Darnell Mooney over 1.5 catches (exactly two). The losses: Skattebo under 39.5 and 49.5 rushing yards and over 14.5 receiving yards (12), Likely under 4.5 catches and under 39.5 receiving yards — he caught 11 for 94 and two touchdowns, the miss worth owning — and Rachaad White over 1.5 catches and over 9.5 and 14.5 receiving yards (one catch, two yards). Three suppressed rows count in neither direction.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Commanders −2.5 → Commanders −3.5
Total
48.5 → 41.5
Moneyline
NYG +114 / WAS −135 → NYG +154 / WAS −185

The spread did not move. The total fell 7 to 41.5; the game landed on 54.

How it happened

Q2

Croskey-Merritt scored on the first drive, the Giants missed twice, and Washington led 12-3 at the half

Washington went 69 yards in four plays and two minutes, Jacory Croskey-Merritt running the last 33, but Drew Stevens missed the extra point. The Giants’ first drive ended in a missed field goal; Zvada then made a 51-yarder with 55 seconds left in the first quarter. Stevens kicked from 28 and, after a Giants lost fumble, from 40, and New York’s last drive of the half ended in a second miss.

Halftime
Commanders 12, Giants 3
Washington’s opening drive
4 plays · 69 yds · 2:00 · TD, PAT missed

ESPN — play-by-play

Q3

Daniels went 38 yards, and Likely answered at the end of a 13-play drive

Zvada’s 56-yarder opened the half’s scoring. Washington replied with 77 yards in five plays, Daniels running the final 38 for a 19-6 lead. The Giants took 7:03 and 13 plays to go 63 yards, and Winston found Likely from the 3 with 44 seconds left in the quarter.

After three
Commanders 19, Giants 13
Giants touchdown drive
13 plays · 63 yds · 7:03

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

Daniels from 26 and a two-point throw made it 27-13; Winston answered twice from 17

Daniels ran 26 yards for his second touchdown and threw to Terry McLaurin for two, and Washington led by 14 with 11:05 left. Winston went 75 yards in nine plays and hit Likely from 17; the ball was punched out just after he crossed and the score stood on review. The Giants got it back with 4:56 left, went 72 yards in ten plays, and Winston found Nabers from 17 to tie it with 1:43 to go. Washington’s last regulation drive went four plays and punted.

End of regulation
Giants 27, Commanders 27
Giants fourth quarter
2 TD drives · 147 yds · 19 plays
Winston
33 of 54 · 326 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT

ESPN — play-by-play

Overtime

A third Zvada miss, a Skattebo fumble in range, and a scramble that ran out the clock

The Giants opened overtime with eight plays and 39 yards and Zvada missed again. After a Washington punt they drove 67 yards in eight plays before Daron Payne stripped Skattebo with New York in field-goal range. Washington took over with 1:55 left and moved 53 yards in six plays to the Giants 24, and with 12 seconds left Daniels held the ball on a called pass and went down for no gain; with no timeouts, the clock ran out before Washington could spike it.

Final (OT)
Giants 27, Commanders 27 · overtime 0-0
Zvada
2 of 5 field goals · long 56
Daniels
17 of 25 · 199 yds; 9 carries · 103 yds · 2 TD
Nabers / Likely
11 catches · 121 yds · 1 TD / 11 catches · 94 yds · 2 TD
Total yards / turnovers
NYG 408 · 2 — WAS 378 · 0

AP via ESPN — Jayden Daniels returns and scores twice, but overtime gaffe costs Commanders in 27-27 tie vs. Giants

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game, and there is no nfl_weekly_edges row for it in any status: the quarterback gate read ADJUSTED, and a game-line position stands only on PASS. Every nfl_prop_edges row on the final pre-kickoff board had result and pnl_cents null when this was written — grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every outcome above is derived from the ESPN box score and play-by-play, and the prop grades by script (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W5_SUNDAY_RECAPS_2026-10-12/prop-reconciliation-w05-sunday.csv), never by hand. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • The distances of Zvada’s three misses are not in ESPN’s scoring summary and are left out.
  • The AP has Washington getting the ball with two minutes left in overtime; ESPN’s drive chart starts that drive at 1:55. The drive chart is used above. The replay review on Likely’s second touchdown and the account of the final play call are the AP’s.
  • Jermaine Eluemunor was carried off with a left calf injury and Colton Hood was helped off after a kickoff late in the third quarter (AP). ESPN’s pre-game list had both questionable. Their severity, and how Daniels’ left elbow came through his first game back in a brace, was not known when this was published.
  • DraftKings moved from Washington −2.5 to −3.5, and the total fell seven points, from 48.5 to 41.5. ESPN’s core-odds endpoint carries no timestamp for the open, so no cause is claimed for either move — including Daniels’ return.

Reporting verified 2026-10-12. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Jayden Daniels returns and scores twice, but overtime gaffe costs Commanders in 27-27 tie vs. Giants

An Oracle Fork on Jayden Daniels — who may return to find both his receivers hurt

Jayden Daniels practised in full on Wednesday for the first time since dislocating his left elbow in Week 2, and Dan Quinn said the goal is a full week and a Sunday start — but nobody has named him and no designation is filed, so this game is an Oracle Fork and the page above carries our line both with him and without. Two things complicate the comeback. He will wear a brace that deliberately does not fully extend, for the rest of the season. And his top two receivers both missed Wednesday with hamstrings.

Quarterback rooms · the injury and practice picture

The Oracle Fork: a full practice, a brace that will not straighten, and no designation

Close to even

Daniels dislocated his left elbow in Week 2 at Dallas, missed two games, and on Wednesday took a full practice for the first time since. Quinn’s language is as close to a commitment as anyone has given: the goal is a full week of practice and a start on Sunday, and "we won’t put him out there before he’s ready." That is intent, not a designation — the game-status column is empty for every player on both rosters, and it stays empty until Friday. The detail that makes this a genuine fork rather than a formality is the hardware: the brace is designed not to fully extend, specifically to stop the joint being hyperextended again, and he will wear it the rest of the season. Quinn wants him clasping the ball and rolling to the ground rather than absorbing hits mid-throw. Daniels says he consulted multiple specialists and is "super confident", and that he will "embrace the brace". If he cannot go, the branch is Athan Kaliakmanis — and with Marcus Mariota out with a knee injury, Kaliakmanis is the only healthy quarterback left on the roster, which is a materially different game.

Wednesday participation
FULL — first full session since the Week 2 left elbow dislocation; no game status filed
Quinn, on the record
"The goal is for him to have a full week of practice and start on Sunday. We won’t put him out there before he’s ready."
The backup branch
Athan Kaliakmanis — with Mariota out (knee), the only other healthy QB on the roster

Source: commanders.com — Commanders vs Giants Week 5 injury report (2026-10-07)

Commanders pass offense · the injury picture

He may come back to no receivers: McLaurin and Diggs both missed Wednesday

Edge: Giants

This is arguably bigger than the quarterback question and it has had a fraction of the attention. Stefon Diggs leads Washington with eighteen catches for 170 yards and three touchdowns; Terry McLaurin has ten catches on 22 targets. Both were non-participants on Wednesday, both with hamstrings. A quarterback returning from a two-game absence behind a brace that will not straighten, throwing to a third and fourth receiver, is not the same event as "Daniels is back". Washington’s 23-man injury report is itself the story — six non-participants, eleven limited, with three players designated to return from injured reserve this week. The one piece of structural good news is the line: Washington grades ninth in composite pass protection, which is what makes the clean-pocket read below possible at all. The counterweight on the other side of the ball is that Washington’s own run blocking grades last in the league.

Wednesday, Washington receivers
Stefon Diggs (hamstring) DNP · Terry McLaurin (hamstring) DNP
Washington’s injury report
23 players listed — 6 DNP, 11 limited, 6 full; three designated to return from IR
Pass protection
Washington 9th in composite pass protection; last in run-block win rate

Source: Commanders On SI — Week 5 injury report roundup (2026-10-08)

Commanders pass offense · Giants coverage

The Giants cannot rush the passer and still lead the league in takeaways

Edge: Commanders

New York is the strangest defense in football right now. Their pressure rate is 22.1%, dead last, their rushers’ get-off is the slowest in the league, Kayvon Thibodeaux has no sacks, Abdul Carter has one on 92 pass-rush snaps, and Brian Burns tore an ACL in Week 3 and is gone for the season — Harbaugh’s own assessment is that they need to get to the quarterback more. And yet they are tied first in the NFL in interceptions, second in pass breakups, and take the ball away on 17.5% of opponent drives, with at least one interception in every game. Deonte Banks came back in Week 4 with a 98-yard interception returned for a touchdown and four pass breakups and was named conference defensive player of the week; the rookie linebacker leads the league in solo tackles. So the shape of this is a quarterback in a brace, with his third and fourth receivers, getting a clean pocket and all day to throw — into the most opportunistic back end in the league. That is a high-variance combination rather than a comfortable one for either side.

Giants pass rush
22.1% pressure rate — last in the NFL; slowest get-off; Burns out for the season (ACL, Week 3)
Giants takeaways
Tied 1st in interceptions, 2nd in pass breakups, takeaways on 17.5% of opponent drives
Deonte Banks, Week 4
98-yard pick-six and a career-high four pass breakups — conference defensive player of the week

Source: giants.com — Week 5 Washington preview: Harbaugh, Reese, Banks, Nabers, Daniels

Giants run offense · Commanders defense

Washington’s second-half defense against an offense built to grind — and short its own stars

Close to even

Washington allows 30.5 points a game, 30th, has conceded touchdowns on twelve of fifteen red-zone trips, and is tied for last in second-half scoring allowed at 17.8 points — against 12.8 in the first half. New York, meanwhile, ranks second in the league in time of possession and runs on nearly half its snaps. On paper that is a team built to exploit exactly this. The reason it may not is that New York is bad at starting drives and is missing the people who finish them: they average 3.7 yards a play on first down, the lowest in the league, and 3.4 on first-down runs. Cam Skattebo has averaged 3.1 yards a carry over the last three games and was limited Wednesday with a shoulder. Malik Nabers, their best receiver, did not practise with a knee. Left tackle Andrew Thomas did not practise with a groin, which is chronic — he missed Thursday practice back in Week 3 prep too — and that matters more than usual because Washington blitzes on 44.4% of dropbacks, second-most in the league, and Winston was 9-of-18 for 3.9 yards an attempt with an interception when blitzed in Week 4.

Washington defense
30.5 points allowed per game (30th); TDs on 12 of 15 red-zone trips (80%, 30th); tied last in second-half points allowed
Giants first down
3.7 yards per play on first down — lowest in the league; 3.4 per first-down rush (29th)
Winston when blitzed, Week 4
9/18, 3.9 yards per attempt, 1 INT, 36.8 rating — 28th among quarterbacks

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Giants–Commanders Week 5 worksheet

What this read does not know

  • This is an Oracle Fork, so our lean is capped at a WATCH in both branches and we publish no position. The two branches are exactly one flat quarterback term apart by construction, which means they price a league-average starter against a league-average backup. They cannot know that the backup is a seventh-round rookie with one career appearance, nor that he would be the only healthy quarterback on the roster, nor that the starter is returning in a brace that will not fully extend. The fork gives the range honestly; it does not price the man.
  • Both branches carry the same price. Our anchor weighting on the margin is zero, so the fork moves our model line and our lean and never the published probability. The rule that a position must hold in both branches cannot bite here — not because the position survived a test, but because there is no position to test.
  • The market has already priced the return, which is the most useful thing to know about it. Washington opened as a home favorite and has stayed there, and the reporting is explicit that the possible Daniels return is the factor holding the home side up. So a Friday confirmation that he starts should not be expected to move the number much; a Friday ruling that he does not is the event, and one market write-up put it plainly that the line would flip quickly on a Kaliakmanis start. Our own market anchor matches the book consensus on this game.
  • There is no published with-and-without-Daniels efficiency split for 2026, and we are not inventing one. What is on the record is small and cuts against the easy narrative: across his six quarters before the injury Daniels averaged 5.1 yards an attempt, the lowest in the league, with three touchdowns and no turnovers. Washington’s only win this season came with Mariota starting, and Daniels is 0-2 as a starter — but each of those two-game samples is contaminated, because Daniels left Week 2 mid-game and Mariota left Week 4 after ten snaps. Points allowed are identical across both splits at 30.5 a game, which points at the defense rather than the quarterback as the reason this team is 1-3.
  • No Thursday report existed when this was written, and no designations exist at all. Everything above is Wednesday participation. Friday resolves Daniels, McLaurin, Diggs, Nabers and Thomas, and any of those five changes the read. Mariota’s status is a particular trap: one market preview called him doubtful, another called him out, and Quinn said Washington does not currently plan to place him on injured reserve. No designation is filed, so we state none.
  • Kaliakmanis is one game of evidence and the shape of it is odd. In the Week 4 loss in London he went 15-of-33 for 186 yards with a touchdown and an interception on 84% of the snaps, and the interception came off a tipped ball. The interesting part is that he threw six passes of 30-plus air yards, the most by any quarterback in a game this season, at a 14.1-yard average depth of target. That is not a conservative caretaker profile, and it would make the without-Daniels branch higher-variance than a flat quarterback term implies in either direction.
  • One name worth getting right, because it recurs and is easy to get wrong: the Giants’ head coach is John Harbaugh. Jaxson Dart is out for the season after knee surgery, so Jameis Winston is the unambiguous starter on a two-year extension rather than a placeholder, and Brian Burns is also out for the year.

Reporting verified 2026-10-08. Further sources: commanders.com — Commanders vs Giants Week 5 injury report (2026-10-07) · commanders.com — practice notes: Jayden Daniels returns as a full participant · Yardbarker / Field Level Media — Daniels to "embrace the brace" and play vs the Giants (Quinn quote, 2026-10-07) · giants.com — Giants vs Commanders Week 5 injury report (Nabers, Thomas, Skattebo) · giants.com — Week 5 Washington preview: Harbaugh, Reese, Banks, Nabers, Daniels · Commanders On SI — Week 5 injury report roundup (2026-10-08) · Sharp Football Analysis — Giants–Commanders Week 5 worksheet · commanders.com — Commanders–Colts stats and snaps (Kaliakmanis’s debut, Mariota’s knee) · commanders.com — Athan Kaliakmanis on his quarterback debut against the Colts · NBC Sports — Jaxson Dart done for 2026 with a knee injury (2026-09-23) · NFL.com — Giants’ Brian Burns tore an ACL in the win over Tennessee · Pro Football Reference — 2026 Washington Commanders · Pro Football Reference — 2026 New York Giants · amNY — Harbaugh on facing Jayden Daniels (2026-10-07)

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 5 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 11
AWAY NYG -0.7
vs WAS -3.5
HOME WAS -1.8
Fair (books) · WAS 62% home win prob
Kalshi · WAS — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Landover, MD PASS — no position

This one's been played. Get the full Week 5 card free, every remaining game priced against the market.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Giants

38%

fair value (books)

Commanders

62%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

45%

Madden 27

55%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

All tools →
Price GapsPROWhere the best price is right now — Kalshi vs Polymarket US vs the books.→Combo Edge BuilderFREEPrice a same-game combo for this slate — true joint probability, free, no leg cap.→NFL Win ProbabilityFREETurn any spread and total into a win probability and projected score.→Prop BoardLIVEEvery listed player prop, model number against the Kalshi price.→

Go Pro · 26% off your first year

Every NFL game priced against the live Kalshi line, every week — $150/yr

Pro is the layer around the free game edges: fair value against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.

Go Pro →

$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.

Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →

The Ladder — Giants at Commanders How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Giants at CommandersSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
    Go Pro · $150/yr, $111 your first year →

    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Giants at Commanders Kalshi spread ladder for Week 5: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Giants–Commanders spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Giants vs Commanders power ratings (Week 5) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    New York Giants-0.720thAverage
    Washington Commanders-1.825thAverage

    Giants and Commanders season outlook

    NYGWAS
    Average wins9.86.1
    Make playoffs66%9%
    Win division60%5%
    Win Super Bowl3.2%0.5%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Giants vs Commanders — player pages

    All players →

    Malik Nabers

    WR

    Cam Skattebo

    RB

    Terry McLaurin

    WR

    Jayden Daniels

    QB

    Stefon Diggs

    WR

    Rachaad White

    RB

    Isaiah Likely

    TE

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: NFC East math: Giants at Commanders

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27 (OT) — the graded call is above.

    New York Giants at Washington Commanders is a NFC East game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 10. The model has the Commanders by 6.5 (67%) off a -1.8 to -0.7 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC East, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows. One input in this line is not a rating: the Giants are without their usual starting quarterback (Jameis Winston starts), and our QB-out term moves the line 4.9 points toward the Commanders — already inside the number above.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Giants offense grades +0.7 (13th of 32) against a Commanders defense at -2.4 (27th) — 3.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Commanders offense (+0.3, 18th) meets the Giants defense (-1.4, 19th), a 1.7-point gap.

    On the standings side, NFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 10, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC East race.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Commanders at 6.1 wins (favored in 7 of 17) and the Giants at 9.8 (favored in 7) — 3.7 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Commanders' schedule and the 8th-hardest on the Giants'.

    Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 30-17 in the Giants' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Commanders won 29-21 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Commanders are 4-0. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.

    Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favorites went 68%. The 67% on the Commanders here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT11NYGWAS, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Full division picture on the NFC East hub.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Giants vs Commanders on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT11NYGWAS
    Market-implied (Commanders)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Commanders)
    62%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 62% for the Commanders. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Giants vs Commanders trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueCommandersTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig63% 63cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket.com (international)no captured price for this game — international bookInformational
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

    Embed this game on your site

    A live tile locked to Giants vs Commanders, Week 5 — our model's win probability against the Kalshi price for this one game, not "whichever game is closest today" — for a team blog, a newsletter or a Discord landing page. Free to preview on your own page; publishing runs on an Enterprise license, and the credit line stays on.

    The MPU (300×250) and Leaderboard (728×90) sizes are IAB standard ad units — paste one where an ad already goes. Every NFL prediction-market widget.

    Article width · 560×320

    <iframe
  src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/giants-vs-commanders-week-05-2026/hero"
  width="560"
  height="320"
  frameborder="0"
  loading="lazy"
  title="Giants vs Commanders, Week 5 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks">
</iframe>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Giants vs Commanders, Week 5 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/giants-vs-commanders-week-05-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

    Sidebar · 320×340

    <iframe
  src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/giants-vs-commanders-week-05-2026/sidebar"
  width="320"
  height="340"
  frameborder="0"
  loading="lazy"
  title="Giants vs Commanders, Week 5 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks">
</iframe>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Giants vs Commanders, Week 5 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/giants-vs-commanders-week-05-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

    MPU · ad slot · 300×250

    <iframe
  src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/giants-vs-commanders-week-05-2026/mpu"
  width="300"
  height="250"
  frameborder="0"
  loading="lazy"
  title="Giants vs Commanders, Week 5 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks">
</iframe>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Giants vs Commanders, Week 5 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/giants-vs-commanders-week-05-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

    Leaderboard · ad slot · 728×90

    <iframe
  src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/giants-vs-commanders-week-05-2026/leaderboard"
  width="728"
  height="90"
  frameborder="0"
  loading="lazy"
  title="Giants vs Commanders, Week 5 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks">
</iframe>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Giants vs Commanders, Week 5 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/giants-vs-commanders-week-05-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

    Embed this game’s spread ladder

    A live card locked to Giants vs Commanders, Week 5 — the Kalshi price at every spread strike for this one game — for a preview post or a game-day thread. Free to preview on your own page; publishing runs on an Enterprise license, and the credit line stays on.

    Every NFL prediction-market widget.

    Article width · 560×300

    <iframe
  src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-ladder/giants-vs-commanders-week-05-2026/hero"
  width="560"
  height="300"
  frameborder="0"
  loading="lazy"
  title="Giants vs Commanders, Week 5 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks">
</iframe>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Giants vs Commanders, Week 5 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/giants-vs-commanders-week-05-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

    Sidebar · 320×280

    <iframe
  src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-ladder/giants-vs-commanders-week-05-2026/sidebar"
  width="320"
  height="280"
  frameborder="0"
  loading="lazy"
  title="Giants vs Commanders, Week 5 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks">
</iframe>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Giants vs Commanders, Week 5 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/giants-vs-commanders-week-05-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

    Watch the breakdown: Giants vs Commanders

    Jaguars vs. Texans: Find the Edge on Kalshi! 🏈 | 7 Oracles NFL Prediction Market Analysis — video thumbnail4:36Jaguars vs. Texans: Find the Edge on Kalshi! 🏈 | 7 Oracles NFL Prediction Market AnalysisOct 16, 2026NFL Week 6 Prediction Markets Picks: Saints vs Giants, Cowboys-Packers Over | Fade The Field Ep. 19 — video thumbnail45:31NFL Week 6 Prediction Markets Picks: Saints vs Giants, Cowboys-Packers Over | Fade The Field Ep. 19Oct 15, 2026NFL Week 5 Best Investments: Favorites, Underdogs, Overs, Unders, and Props! — video thumbnail19:28NFL Week 5 Best Investments: Favorites, Underdogs, Overs, Unders, and Props!Oct 8, 2026

    Giants vs Commanders — frequently asked

    Who won Giants vs Commanders in Week 5?

    New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27 (OT) — final, played Sunday, October 11, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Commanders by 3.5 (62% to win), and the game ended tied, so the call pushed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Giants vs Commanders before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Commanders by 3.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Giants. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT11NYGWAS market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    How much does a NFC East result matter here?

    Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC East teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 10. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Commanders by 6.5 on ratings and home field alone.

    How do you take a position on Giants vs Commanders?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11NYGWAS on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Commanders at 60c or below, or the Giants at 36c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Commanders host the Giants?

    New York Giants visit the Washington Commanders on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD.

    What does the model project for the Commanders and Giants this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Commanders at 6.1 wins (favored in 7) and the Giants at 9.8 (favored in 7). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Commanders' schedule and 8th-hardest on the Giants', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Giants vs Commanders?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT11NYGWAS, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Giants vs Commanders on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 5 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT11NYGWAS has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 67% on a team like the Commanders?

    68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Commanders at 67% over the Giants sit in that band, off a 6.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Giants moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 38% against a market price implying 37%, an edge of +0.8 points. Model 38% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 37% on NYG — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

    Trade this game on Kalshi →Commanders hub →Giants hub →Kalshi NFL hub →Week 5 edge board →NFL predictions hub →

    Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 5 card, market price vs our number. Free.

    No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

    The rematch

    They run it back in Week 10. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Giants–Commanders, Week 10 →

    Next up for each team

    Giants: Week 6 vs SaintsModel line →Commanders: Week 6 at 49ersModel line →

    More Week 5 matchups

    Buccaneers at CowboysModel: Cowboys −9Eagles at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −3Bengals at DolphinsModel: Bengals −2Raiders at PatriotsModel: Patriots −8Vikings at SaintsModel: Saints −0.5Browns at JetsModel: Jets −1Colts at SteelersModel: Steelers −2Texans at TitansModel: Texans −1.5Broncos at ChargersModel: Broncos −0.5Lions at CardinalsModel: Lions −1.5Bears at PackersModel: Packers −4.549ers at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −4.5Ravens at FalconsModel: Falcons −4.5Bills at RamsModel: Rams −3

    Full Week 5 board →Next: NFL Week 6 predictions →

    Same model, inside your AI agent

    The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.

    See the in-season NFL tools →

    Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.

    More NFL model boards