Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, January 10, 2027 · U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Bears by 1.5 in Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings, NFL Week 18 2026 — 55% to win, and the second NFC North meeting of the year. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN10CHIMIN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Vikings at 40c or below (or Bears at 50c or below) is where the model would take a position.
CHI
+1.5
MIN
-2.6
Bears
55%
model win prob
Vikings
45%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-27JAN10CHIMINhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Vikings at 40c or below, or the Bears at 50c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
The rematch: what the model sees the second time around
This is the second meeting. The Bears and Vikings already played in Week 2, and now the Bears make the return trip in Week 18. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: -2.6 against +1.5, plus home field, equals the Bears by 1.5 (55%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings — a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bears offense grades +1.9 (8th of 32) against a Vikings defense at -0.5 (16th) — 2.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Vikings offense (-2.5, 29th) meets the Bears defense (-0.9, 19th), a 1.6-point gap.
On the standings side, NFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 2, so a season sweep is on the table here on the NFC North race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Vikings at 7.1 wins (favored in 4 of 17) and the Bears at 8.9 (favored in 11) — 1.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 11th-hardest game on the Vikings' schedule and the 12th-hardest on the Bears'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 25-23 in the Vikings' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Bears won 19-17 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Vikings are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Bears at 55% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-27JAN10CHIMIN is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 45% / 55% — the tradable window is narrow: Vikings at 40c or below, Bears at 50c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the NFC North hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bears vs Vikings — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bears vs Vikings in Week 18?
Our power-rating model favors the Bears by 1.5 points, a 55% win probability over the Vikings. The Vikings rate 27th of 32 (-2.6) and the Bears 10th (+1.5); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN10CHIMIN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a NFC North result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC North teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 2. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Bears by 1.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Bears vs Vikings?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-27JAN10CHIMIN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Vikings at 40c or below, or the Bears at 50c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Vikings host the Bears?
Chicago Bears visit the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, January 10, 2027 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 18, at U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN.
What does the model project for the Vikings and Bears this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Vikings at 7.1 wins (favored in 4) and the Bears at 8.9 (favored in 11). This game ranks 11th-hardest on the Vikings' schedule and 12th-hardest on the Bears', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 55% on a team like the Bears?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Bears at 55% over the Vikings sit in that band, off a 1.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 2. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Bears–Vikings, Week 2 →
More Week 18 matchups
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