Silver Edge 15-Min
Kalshi lists a fresh silver contract every fifteen minutes. Once the window opens the strike is locked — so we can tell you what it is actually worth, and what it costs to act.
Once a window opens, its reference price is locked. From that moment the contract's fair value is arithmetic rather than a forecast:
- S — the live silver price, polled straight from Pyth, the source Kalshi settles on.
- K— the reference price locked at the window's open (for example $62.144).
- τ — time left in the window.
- σ — how much silver has actually been moving, measured over the last fifteen minutes.
There is no drift term. We are not claiming to know which way silvergoes next — at this horizon nobody credibly does, and our own hourly model tested worse than the market's own pricing. Setting drift to zero is the honest choice, and it is what makes the number above a measurement rather than an opinion.
Quick Answer
Silver Edge 15-Min prices Kalshi's KXSILVER15M markets — one up-or-down contract per 15-minute window, settling on Pyth 1-minute candle closes. Once a window opens its reference price is locked, so fair value becomes arithmetic: we compute it live from the distance to that strike, the time left, and realized volatility, with no directional call. We also draw the round-trip fee band, because near 50¢ it costs about 3.5¢ to get in and out and most windows offer less edge than that. Window open.
Current Silver window
Reference price locked at $62.184
Closes in
4:17
Live price
$62.172
server · 9s ago
vs reference
-0.012
below
Model fair value
37.5¢
YES contract
Market mid
43¢
42–43¢ · book as of 13s ago
Fair value vs the book — with the fee dead zone
The book is 5.0¢ above model fair value — outside the 3.8¢ round-trip cost band. That is worth a look, not a trade signal: we are logging these to see whether they beat the book over time, and we will publish the answer either way.
This window
- YES bid / ask
- 42¢ / 43¢
- Contracts traded
- 15,201
- Open interest
- 6,443
- Round-trip fee at fair
- 3.28¢
Next window
Opens at 2:15 PM ET. Its reference price locks at that moment — until then there is no strike to price against, which is why the card above only exists once a window is live.
Trade silver windows on KalshiRelated Tools
The fee is the whole story
Kalshi charges a quadratic taker fee on these markets — 0.07 × P × (1 − P) per contract. That works out to about 1.75¢ at 50¢, 1.47¢ at 70¢, and 0.63¢ at 90¢. Near the middle, where these contracts spend most of their lives, a round trip costs roughly 3.5¢ before the spread. Add a typical few-cent spread and the market has to be around two percentage points wrong just for you to break even.
That is why the gauge above draws a dead zone instead of a signal. Ninety-six windows a day is a lot of opportunities to pay a fee, and churning every window compounds the cost far faster than most people expect. If you want to see what a given entry actually costs, the Kalshi fee calculator does the arithmetic.
Why we can price these honestly
These contracts settle on Pyth's 1-minute silver candles — and Pyth is the same feed we already poll every ten seconds. For silver, our price source and Kalshi's settlement source are the same publisher, which is not true of the 15-minute bitcoin markets (those settle on CF Benchmarks). The page polls Pyth directly in your browser, so the gauge keeps moving between server refreshes; the order book comes from our servers and is labelled with its own age so you always know how fresh each half is.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do Kalshi's silver 15-minute markets settle?
Each KXSILVER15M contract asks whether the silver price is up over a 15-minute window. It resolves YES if the close of the 1-minute Pyth silver candle at the window's close is at or above the close of the 1-minute candle at the window's open. Pyth is the settlement source Kalshi names in the contract itself, and the reference price is rounded to 3 decimal places. That reference price locks the moment the window opens — before then there is no strike, which is why a fair value only exists once trading is live.
Why isn't fair value 50¢ in the middle of a silver 15-minute window?
Because the strike is already fixed. At the moment the window opens, the contract genuinely is a coin flip. But three minutes in, with the price sitting above the locked reference and eleven minutes left on the clock, the odds are no longer even — they are a specific number you can compute from the distance to the strike, the time remaining, and how much silver has actually been moving. That is what this tool shows: P(YES) = Φ((ln(S/K) − σ²τ/2) / (σ√τ)), with the drift term deliberately set to zero. It is arithmetic on a known strike, not a forecast of where silver is heading.
What does it cost to trade a silver 15-minute contract?
Kalshi charges a quadratic taker fee of 0.07 × P × (1 − P) per contract on these series. At 50¢ that is about 1.75¢ each way, so a round trip near the middle costs roughly 3.5¢ before you pay anything for the spread. On a contract that lives for fifteen minutes and is priced near a coin flip, that fee is the single biggest fact about the product: the market has to be about two percentage points wrong, after the spread, just for a trade to break even. The tool draws that cost as a dead zone around fair value, and most of the time the market sits inside it.
Is there an edge in Kalshi's 15-minute silver markets?
Usually not, and we would rather say so than manufacture a signal every fifteen minutes. We publish fair value and the cost band; when the book drifts outside that band mid-window we flag it as worth a look. We are logging those flags to see whether they actually beat the market's own pricing over time, and we will publish the answer either way. Until that record clears a real bar, nothing here is sold as a pick, alerted on, or scored in our track record.
When do the silver 15-minute markets trade?
Roughly around the clock on weekdays — 96 windows a day, one every fifteen minutes — and dark over the weekend. Those hours are Kalshi's call rather than a stock-exchange calendar, so this page derives them from the windows Kalshi has actually listed instead of assuming a schedule. When nothing is listed, the tool says so and resumes when Kalshi lists the next window.
How is this different from the Silver Edge tool?
Silver Edge covers Kalshi's weekly silver ladder — many strikes on one longer-dated contract, priced against an options-implied view. This tool covers a completely different product: a single up-or-down contract on a fifteen-minute window, where there is no options chain to lean on at that horizon. The weekly tool asks which strike is mispriced; this one asks what the current window is actually worth right now, given a strike that is already locked.
How much volume do these markets have?
Sampled across 200 settled windows in early August 2026, KXSILVER15M averaged ~7,000 contracts per window. For scale, Kalshi's 15-minute bitcoin market runs about 1.8 million per window over the same sample, so metals are a small fraction of that — but ~7,000 contracts in a fifteen-minute window is real retail liquidity, with a two-sided book quoted a few cents wide. These are new products, so treat any volume figure as a snapshot rather than a settled fact.
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