Spain won the 2026 World Cup.

How the Simulation Works

Poisson model, methodology, key findings

Full Simulation Results

All 48 teams ranked by win probability

Golden Boot Projections

Top 25 scorers — GPG rates, PK edge, value plays

The Complete Trading Guide

Free download · also on Kindle

Spain

Group H

+400

● high

Spain group stage overs. Their 4-3-3 generates the most chances of any team in the draw. Yamal and Williams force opponents to attack, creating open games.

England

Group L

+550

● high

England to reach the semifinals at plus-money is the best tournament market for England. They have the squad to go deep and Tuchel provides the tactical discipline Southgate lacked.

France

Group I

+700

● high

France vs. Norway over 2.5 goals. Mbappé vs. Haaland in the same match is the most explosive individual matchup in the group stage. Both teams attack.

Brazil

Group C

+800

● high

Brazil group stage clean sheet props are high-value. They've conceded only 14 goals in 18 WCQ matches. Morocco, Scotland, Haiti are all limited offensively.

Argentina

Group J

+800

● high

Argentina to advance from Group J is a near-lock at -400 range. The group is manageable and the squad is too good to go out.

Germany

Group E

+900

● high

Germany group stage over 2.5 goals in all 3 matches is near-lock value. They scored 13 goals in 5 Euro 2024 group/R16 matches. Curaçao, Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire are all vulnerable.

Netherlands

Group F

+1200

● high

Netherlands to top Group F is underpriced. Japan is dangerous but Netherlands have the better squad depth. Tunisia and Sweden are both manageable, though Sweden's attack is the real test.

Portugal

Group K

+1400

● high

Portugal to reach the semi-finals is underpriced. Group K is soft, and they have the squad depth to beat anyone not named Spain or England over 90 minutes.

Morocco

Group C

+2000

● high

Morocco clean sheet vs. Scotland and Haiti. Morocco conceded 1 open-play goal in 7 matches at the 2022 WC. Scotland and Haiti don't have the firepower to break this defense.

Belgium

Group G

+2000

● high

Belgium to win Group G. Egypt have Salah/Marmoush but Belgium's squad depth is superior. Scotland and Iran are both beatable. Belgium should advance with room to spare.

Croatia

Group L

+2500

● high

Croatia to advance from Group L. Ghana are solid but Croatia's tournament experience and defensive discipline make them the more dangerous knockout team. Back Croatia over Ghana for second place.

Japan

Group F

+3000

● high

Japan to top Group F is underpriced vs. Netherlands. Their 3-4-2-1 creates more chances than Netherlands in attack. The trap game narrative favors Japan.

Mexico

Group A

+3500

● high

Raúl Jiménez anytime scorer. The entire Mexico attack runs through Jiménez — PKs, crosses, hold-up play. He hit +150 in the opener and sits one goal back of Borgetti's all-time record (46), real motivation on home soil.

Switzerland

Group B

+4000

● high

Switzerland under 2.5 goals in group matches. Yakin's system is built to grind and counter. They rarely play open games even against weaker opposition.

United States

Group D

+5000

● high

USA to advance from Group D is underpriced at current odds. Hosts advance 85% historically, and Paraguay and Australia are both beatable.

Côte d'Ivoire

Group E

+5000

● medium

Côte d'Ivoire to win vs Ecuador at 28c (model 30.2%)

Uruguay

Group H

+5000

● high

Uruguay to advance from Group H. Second place behind Spain is their floor. Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde are both beatable. Bielsa will have them organized.

Colombia

Group K

+5000

● high

Luis Díaz to score in the tournament is nearly a lock. He's Bayern Munich's first-choice left winger playing in a system built for him. At +EV prices, back him in every group game.

Korea Republic

Group A

+6000

● high

Son Heung-min anytime scorer props remain live despite MD1 miss

Ecuador

Group E

+6000

● medium

Enner Valencia anytime scorer — the position

Senegal

Group I

+6000

● high

Senegal to advance from Group I. Norway is the direct competition for second place. Senegal's defensive structure (Koulibaly-led) can neutralize Norway's midfield even if Haaland scores.

Norway

Group I

+8000

● high

Erling Haaland Golden Boot. If Norway get out of the group, he wins it. Even in a tough group, he scores in nearly every game. The best single-player tournament prop available.

Türkiye

Group D

+8000

● medium

Türkiye to advance from Group D. With USA, Paraguay, and Australia, this is one of the most open groups at the tournament. Turkey's playmakers give them real quality. Group advancement at any plus money is a value look.

Australia

Group D

+10000

● low

Australia to advance from Group D is a speculative value play. The group is soft — Paraguay and Türkiye are beatable.

Paraguay

Group D

+12000

● high

Paraguay to advance from Group D at +200 or better. They are clearly the second-best team after USA. Australia are inferior in technical quality. Alfaro knows how to win at World Cups.

Sweden

Group F

+12000

● high

Viktor Gyökeres to score in every Sweden group game. He's the PK taker, the main striker, and statistically the hottest scorer in Europe. Sweden's group is hard — Netherlands are favorites — but Gyökeres will get chances.

South Africa

Group A

+15000

● high

South Africa Under 2.5 goals in every Group A game. Broos teams give up very few and score very little. Ronwen Williams is elite. These games will be 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 type scores.

Canada

Group B

+15000

● high

Jonathan David anytime scorer vs Qatar (MD2 bounce-back)

Scotland

Group C

+20000

● medium

Scotland group games unders. Clarke's sides are organized and defensive. Scotland vs any 30+ ranked team will be sub-2.5 goals. Back the under in every Scotland group game.

Iran

Group G

+20000

● high

Iran to advance from Group G at +250 or better. Belgium are aging. Egypt are peers. New Zealand are beatable. Taremi alone is worth two wins in Group G.

Austria

Group J

+20000

● high

Austria group games overs. Rangnick's teams press constantly and create open games. Austria concede because they commit bodies forward. Back overs in every Austria group game — especially vs teams ranked outside the top 20.

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Group B

+20000

● medium

Bosnia set-piece header threat (Lukic / Katic / Dzeko)

Qatar

Group B

+25000

● high

Qatar to be eliminated in the group stage. They were the worst team at WC 2022 as hosts. Group B has Canada and Switzerland — both clearly better.

Ghana

Group L

+25000

● medium

Iñaki Williams to score in the tournament at +160 or better. He's a La Liga regular at Athletic Bilbao and Ghana's most direct striker — at a major tournament he gets minutes, touches, and chances.

Czechia

Group A

+25000

● high

Czechia to win vs South Africa (MD2, June 18)

Tunisia

Group F

+30000

● medium

Tunisia group games unders. Their defensive 4-3-3 produces sub-2.5 goal games consistently. Even vs strong opponents, Tunisia make it hard. Back unders in every Tunisia group game.

Algeria

Group J

+30000

● medium

Algeria to advance from Group J at +180 or better. Austria are their direct competitor but Algeria have Mahrez plus a Bundesliga-and-Ligue-1 core in Amoura, Aouar, and Gouiri. They should finish above Austria.

Egypt

Group G

+35000

● high

Egypt to advance from Group G. Salah and Marmoush are two of the most dangerous attacking players in the tournament. Belgium are declining. Scotland are limited. Back Egypt to advance — this is significant +EV.

Saudi Arabia

Group H

+40000

● low

Saudi Arabia to score vs Cape Verde at -130. They'll have territorial advantage vs the smallest qualifier. Al-Dawsari will create something. Take the money-line or the 'Saudi Arabia to score' market.

Uzbekistan

Group K

+40000

● medium

Uzbekistan to advance from Group K at +400 or better. Colombia are inconsistent. Portugal at 2026 are an aging squad beyond Ronaldo. Cannavaro's system is sophisticated and Khusanov (Man City) is a legitimate world-class player.

Haiti

Group C

+50000

● high

Under 2.5 goals Haiti vs Scotland. Scotland trends under, Haiti sits deep. Neither team will run up the score. Competitive physical game stays below 3 goals.

Panama

Group L

+50000

● low

Panama to keep it close vs Ghana. The 5-4-1 vs a Ghana squad in transition could produce a 1-0 or 1-1. At +250 or better, a speculative unit makes sense.

Iraq

Group I

+50000

● medium

Iraq vs Norway — under 3.5 goals. Iraq defend compactly and will park the bus. Haaland will get chances but Iraq's low-block is hard to break. Norway don't score 4 against organized defenses.

Cape Verde

Group H

+60000

● medium

Cape Verde to beat or draw Saudi Arabia in Group H. Cape Verde are more organized and technically superior to Saudi Arabia's domestic players. Ryan Mendes is simply the better player.

Jordan

Group J

+75000

● medium

Mousa Tamari to score at the World Cup (anytime in group stage) at +250. He plays Ligue 1, he scores, and Jordan will sit back giving him counter-attacking space.

DR Congo

Group K

+75000

● medium

Yoane Wissa anytime scorer vs Uzbekistan. DRC are heavy favorites in this match-up and Wissa is their primary attack weapon. He creates his own shots.

New Zealand

Group G

+80000

● high

Chris Wood anytime goal scorer at +280 or better vs Iran or vs Egypt. Wood scores in big games. He always does.

Curaçao

Group E

+100000

● high

Curaçao to cover +3.5 goals vs Germany. Germany are favorites but typically win 2-0 or 3-0 in group stage, not 6-0. Curaçao low-block limits the damage.