Bitcoin Edge 15-Min
Live fair value, countdown and the cost-of-trading floor for every Kalshi 15-minute bitcoin window. No picks — the record fills up in public first.
The arithmetic
P(above) = Φ( ( ln(spot / strike) − σ²τ / 2 ) / (σ√τ) ), τ = seconds left / seconds in a year, σ = realized bitcoin vol (annualized)
Fee per contract = ⌈0.07 × p × (1 − p)⌉ cents, taken on each fill. Breakeven YES price is the highest p with p + fee(p) ≤ P(above). Distance to strike is ln(spot/strike) / (σ√τ), in sigmas.
Quick Answer
Bitcoin Edge 15-Min prices Kalshi's KXBTC15M markets — one above/below contract per 15-minute window, 24/7, settling on the 60-second CF Benchmarks BRTI average. Once a window opens its strike is locked, so fair value is arithmetic: distance to the strike, time left, realized volatility. The page shows that beside the Kalshi mid, draws the fee band, marks the settlement-averaging minute, and sizes a quarter-Kelly stake. It publishes no picks: across 406 graded windows the model has not beaten the market's own Brier in any bucket. Window open.
What this cockpit is for
A 15-minute bitcoin window is not a market you research; it is one you sit in front of. The useful things are the ones that change every second — how far spot sits from the locked strike in volatility units, how many seconds remain, whether the last-minute average has started, and what a YES contract has to cost for the arithmetic to work after Kalshi’s fee. That is what is on screen, every window, with no pick attached.
Sizing arithmetic on the model’s own fair value — not a recommendation. The model has not beaten the market’s price in any 15-minute bucket yet (see the gate below), so treat its fair value as a second opinion, not a call.
Every window is scored against the Kalshi price it was shown beside. Picks are a separate, stricter gate — per-bucket Brier vs the market on a holdout — and it has not cleared.
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Related Tools
Why the last 60 seconds are a different game
The contract does not settle on the price at the close; it settles on the average of the CF Benchmarks index across the final minute. Once that minute starts, every second of price you see is already part of the answer, and the remaining uncertainty is not “which way does bitcoin go” but “what does a partly-known average end up at.” The cockpit draws that band in gold and tells you when you are inside it. Trading through it is a choice; being surprised by it should not be.
The gate, in public
Every window is graded against the Kalshi price the model was shown beside. A pick would need the model to beat the market’s own Brier score, per minute-remaining bucket, after fees, on data it was not fitted to. Here is where that stands:
| Minutes left | Distance | Windows | Model Brier | Market Brier | Model − market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 | <0.5σ | 149 | 0.2675 | 0.2620 | -0.0055 |
| 10-15 | >1σ | 126 | 0.2213 | 0.2190 | -0.0024 |
| 10-15 | 0.5-1σ | 124 | 0.2476 | 0.2398 | -0.0078 |
| 10-15 | unknown | 3 | 0.2521 | 0.2609 | +0.0088 |
| 5-10 | >1σ | 2 | 0.0110 | 0.0361 | +0.0251 |
| 5-10 | 0.5-1σ | 2 | 0.4268 | 0.3430 | -0.0838 |
Lower Brier is better; a positive last column means the model beat the market in that bucket. Gate: not cleared — 0 of 3 buckets with 30+ windows beat the market · 406 graded windows over 4.239583333333333 days · overall model − market -0.0054. Picks turn on only when every populated bucket is positive on a holdout, and then only as the Pro/Discord layer.
The hourly tool is a different product on a different clock — options-implied probability against Kalshi’s hourly ladder. The two are kept apart on purpose: Bitcoin Edge (hourly) →
Frequently Asked Questions
How does a Kalshi 15-minute bitcoin contract settle?
Each KXBTC15M contract asks whether bitcoin is above a strike at the end of a 15-minute window. The strike is the reference price locked when the window opens. It settles on the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index averaged over the final 60 seconds of the window — not on a single print, and not on a spot exchange price. That last minute is why the cockpit marks it as a separate band: while it runs, the price you see is already being averaged into the settle, and a position opened there is a coin flip on the average, not on the direction.
What does the fair value on this page mean?
It is the probability, from the distance between the live BRTI-constituent spot and the locked strike, the time left in the window, and realized bitcoin volatility, that the window settles above the strike. It is arithmetic once the strike is locked — there is no directional call in it. The Kalshi mid beside it is what the market thinks. When they differ by more than the fee band, the page shows the gap, and nothing more.
Why does this page publish no picks?
Because the model has not earned them. Every 15-minute window is graded in public against the Kalshi price it was shown beside, and the promotion gate is strict: per minute-remaining bucket, the model must beat the market's own Brier score after fees on a holdout. As of the day the gate went live, the 15-minute model lost to the market in every populated bucket. The scoreboard is on this page; a pick would be a lie on top of it.
What is the fee-adjusted breakeven?
Kalshi charges a taker fee of 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per contract, rounded up per fill, which peaks near 1.75¢ at 50¢. The breakeven shown is the highest YES price at which buying YES still has non-negative expected value at the model's fair value once that fee is paid. Near a coin flip it takes about 3.5¢ of edge to get in and out — and most windows never offer that.
Is this the same as the hourly Bitcoin Edge?
No, and they are never combined into one number. The hourly tool prices Kalshi's KXBTCD strike ladder against the IBIT options chain — a cross-market comparison against a professional book. Nothing lists a fifteen-minute option, so the 15-minute rung needs a short-horizon model and pays a tax on the spread instead. Two engines, two clocks, two ledgers.
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