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AFC West: 2026 Odds, Win Totals & Predictions

The prediction-market read on the AFC West. Our DAEPA model favors the Denver Broncos at 9.1 projected wins. Full projected standings, per-team win totals and the 12-game divisional schedule below.

Projected 2026 standings

#TeamProj WPWRTier
1Denver Broncos9.1+0.9Average2Los Angeles Chargers8.9+0.4Average3Las Vegas Raiders6.7-4.0Below Avg4Kansas City Chiefs6.5-4.0Below Avg

Projected wins = Σ single-game win probabilities (Poisson-binomial). Tap a team for its full schedule and Kalshi win-total edge.

AFC West winner market

A dedicated AFC West division-winner contract isn't consistently listed on Kalshi yet. In the meantime, the win-total ladders (KXNFLWINS) and conference & Super Bowl champion markets are the cleanest prediction-market read on this race — and the per-team hubs above carry each club's live line. When a division-winner market opens, the model-vs-market edge fills in here.

Head-to-head schedule (12 games)

Every AFC West team plays the other three twice. Model favorite is the side with the higher win probability (home-field included, +2.5 points).

WeekMatchupModel edge
Wk 1Broncos at ChiefsBroncos 57%
Wk 2Raiders at ChargersChargers 70%
Wk 4Chiefs at RaidersRaiders 57%
Wk 5Broncos at ChargersChargers 56%
Wk 6Chargers at ChiefsChargers 56%
Wk 8Chiefs at BroncosBroncos 71%
Wk 11Raiders at BroncosBroncos 71%
Wk 14Chargers at RaidersChargers 56%
Wk 15Broncos at RaidersBroncos 57%
Wk 17Chiefs at ChargersChargers 70%
Wk 18Chargers at BroncosBroncos 59%
Wk 18Raiders at ChiefsChiefs 57%

AFC West 2026 — frequently asked

Who is favored to win the AFC West in 2026?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Denver Broncos in the AFC West, projecting 9.1 wins — 0.2 ahead of the next team, the Chargers (8.9). The model sums single-game win probabilities across all 17 games for each team.

What are the projected win totals for the AFC West?

Broncos 9.1, Chargers 8.9, Raiders 6.7, Chiefs 6.5. These are model projections (Poisson-binomial expected wins); compare them to the live Kalshi KXNFLWINS lines on each team's hub.

Can you trade AFC West markets on Kalshi?

Kalshi lists season win totals (KXNFLWINS) for all four AFC West teams, plus individual game winners (KXNFLGAME) one to two weeks before kickoff, and conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available in all 50 states as CFTC-regulated event contracts. A dedicated division-winner market is not consistently listed; when it is, we surface the model-vs-market edge here.

How many times do AFC West teams play each other in 2026?

Every NFL division opponent is played twice — home and away — so the four AFC West teams contest 12 divisional games in 2026. Those head-to-head results decide most division-winner outcomes; the full schedule is listed above.

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