AFC West: 2026 Odds, Win Totals & Predictions
The prediction-market read on the AFC West. Our DAEPA model favors the Kansas City Chiefs at 11.2 projected wins. Full projected standings, per-team win totals and the 12-game divisional schedule below.
This week on the boardNFL Week 7 predictions →NFL Week 8 predictions — early lines →Week 6 results →
Week 7 gamesPatriots at BearsSteelers at Saints49ers at FalconsBengals at RavensBuccaneers at PanthersGiants at TexansColts at VikingsDolphins at JetsBrowns at TitansBroncos at CardinalsPackers at LionsRams at RaidersChiefs at SeahawksCowboys at Eagles
Projected 2026 standings
Kansas City Chiefs11.2+1.2Playoff2
Denver Broncos10.2+1.3Playoff3
Las Vegas Raiders7.5-3.2Below Avg4
Los Angeles Chargers4.3-3.2Below AvgProjected wins = Σ single-game win probabilities (Poisson-binomial). Tap a team for its full schedule and Kalshi win-total edge.
AFC West winner odds
Kalshi = mid of the KXNFLAFCWEST bid and ask from our daily capture (a book 10¢ or wider is not shown). Model = share of our 10,000 simulated seasons the team wins the division. “Model vs mkt” is the model's read against the price, in percentage points — context, not a position call.
Beyond the AFC West: Super Bowl LXI champion odds
The title market is the one every division race feeds. Every team's live Kalshi champion price on the KXSB winner series, ranked, updated hourly.
Head-to-head schedule (12 games)
Every AFC West team plays the other three twice. Model favorite is the side with the higher win probability (home-field included, +2.5 points).
AFC West 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the AFC West in 2026?
Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West, projecting 11.2 wins — 1.0 ahead of the next team, the Broncos (10.2). Each figure is the mean of our 10,000-season simulation, which plays every team's 17-game schedule out with rating uncertainty and the real NFL tiebreakers.
What are the projected win totals for the AFC West?
Chiefs 11.2, Broncos 10.2, Raiders 7.5, Chargers 4.3. These are the mean of our 10,000-season simulation — the same figure on every team hub and the win-totals board; compare them to the live Kalshi KXNFLWINS lines on each team's hub.
Can you trade AFC West markets on Kalshi?
Yes — Kalshi lists a division-winner contract for every NFL division (for this one, KXNFLAFCWEST); the table above shows each team's live price beside our model. It also lists season win totals (KXNFLWINS) for all four AFC West teams, individual game winners (KXNFLGAME), and conference and Super Bowl champion markets, all CFTC-regulated event contracts.
How many times do AFC West teams play each other in 2026?
Every NFL division opponent is played twice — home and away — so the four AFC West teams contest 12 divisional games in 2026. Those head-to-head results decide most division-winner outcomes; the full schedule is listed above.
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This division in the first-quarter report
The race so far, the market against our simulation, and the games that decide it. Read the report →