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AFC West: 2026 Odds, Win Totals & Predictions

The prediction-market read on the AFC West. Our DAEPA model favors the Denver Broncos at 9.0 projected wins. Full projected standings, per-team win totals and the 12-game divisional schedule below.

Projected 2026 standings

#TeamProj WPWRTier

Denver Broncos9.0+1.2Average 2

Kansas City Chiefs8.2-0.5Average 3

Los Angeles Chargers8.2-0.4Average 4

Las Vegas Raiders5.6-5.8Below Avg

Projected wins = Σ single-game win probabilities (Poisson-binomial). Tap a team for its full schedule and Kalshi win-total edge.

AFC West winner market

A dedicated AFC West division-winner contract isn't consistently listed on Kalshi yet. In the meantime, the win-total ladders (KXNFLWINS) and conference & Super Bowl champion markets are the cleanest prediction-market read on this race — and the per-team hubs above carry each club's live line. When a division-winner market opens, the model-vs-market edge fills in here.

Head-to-head schedule (12 games)

Every AFC West team plays the other three twice. Model favorite is the side with the higher win probability (home-field included, +2.5 points).

WeekMatchupModel edge

Wk 1Broncos at ChiefsChiefs 52%

Wk 2Raiders at ChargersChargers 72%

Wk 4Chiefs at RaidersChiefs 58%

Wk 5Broncos at ChargersChargers 53%

Wk 6Chargers at ChiefsChiefs 57%

Wk 8Chiefs at BroncosBroncos 62%

Wk 11Raiders at BroncosBroncos 76%

Wk 14Chargers at RaidersChargers 59%

Wk 15Broncos at RaidersBroncos 63%

Wk 17Chiefs at ChargersChargers 58%

Wk 18Chargers at BroncosBroncos 62%

Wk 18Raiders at ChiefsChiefs 72%

AFC West 2026 — frequently asked

Who is favored to win the AFC West in 2026?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Denver Broncos in the AFC West, projecting 9.0 wins — 0.9 ahead of the next team, the Chiefs (8.2). The model sums single-game win probabilities across all 17 games for each team.

What are the projected win totals for the AFC West?

Broncos 9.0, Chiefs 8.2, Chargers 8.2, Raiders 5.6. These are model projections (Poisson-binomial expected wins); compare them to the live Kalshi KXNFLWINS lines on each team's hub.

Can you trade AFC West markets on Kalshi?

Kalshi lists season win totals (KXNFLWINS) for all four AFC West teams, plus individual game winners (KXNFLGAME) — which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff — and conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available in all 50 states as CFTC-regulated event contracts. A dedicated division-winner market is not consistently listed; when it is, we surface the model-vs-market edge here.

How many times do AFC West teams play each other in 2026?

Every NFL division opponent is played twice — home and away — so the four AFC West teams contest 12 divisional games in 2026. Those head-to-head results decide most division-winner outcomes; the full schedule is listed above.

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