Fernando Mendoza Week 10 Kalshi Props
QB · Las Vegas Raiders · bye week 13
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Week 10 vs SEA — every Kalshi strike, the book consensus, and our model's call. Prediction-market props, priced in cents.
Where the market has Fernando Mendoza this week
- As of Nov 11, 3:20 AM ET, Kalshi prices Fernando Mendoza at 13.0¢ for anytime TD against SEA in Week 10.
- As of Nov 11, 3:20 AM ET, Kalshi prices Fernando Mendoza at 38.5¢ for 200+ pass yds against SEA in Week 10.
- As of Nov 11, 3:20 AM ET, Kalshi prices Fernando Mendoza at 41.0¢ for 15+ rush yds against SEA in Week 10.
- As of Nov 11, 3:20 AM ET, Kalshi prices Fernando Mendoza at 19.5¢ for 25+ rush yds against SEA in Week 10.
A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.
Prop market — every Kalshi strike
Full market board →| Contract | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| anytime TDLV v SEA | 13.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 2+ pass TDsLV v SEA | 30.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 3+ pass TDsLV v SEA | 8.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 175+ pass ydsLV v SEA | 55.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 200+ pass ydsLV v SEA | 38.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 225+ pass ydsLV v SEA | 25.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 250+ pass ydsLV v SEA | 14.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 275+ pass ydsLV v SEA | 9.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 10+ rush ydsLV v SEA | 56.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 15+ rush ydsLV v SEA | 41.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 20+ rush ydsLV v SEA | 27.0¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 25+ rush ydsLV v SEA | 19.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the book consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Nov 11, 3:20 AM ET, books as of Nov 11, 3:15 AM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
Last game
Week 5 at Patriots: 6/8 · 48 yds; 1 carry for 3 yds (L 17-45) → recap
Our model vs the market — Week 1
Every result Fernando Mendoza could post this week, and the share of them that reach the number the market listed.
Rush Yds
Range only — this stat has no percentage we would stand behind.
10th 0·median 0·90th 2
The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from model numbers of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. This block is Week 1; the market prices above are read on their own clock.
The week's sharpest prop, across every player
One player here; the whole slate there. The largest model-vs-Kalshi prop gap live this week, refreshed every 5 minutes — preview it free; publishing runs on an Enterprise license.
Raiders 2026 schedule
Team hub →Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
Questions about Fernando Mendoza
What are Fernando Mendoza's Kalshi props for Week 10?
As of Nov 11, 3:20 AM ET, Kalshi lists 12 strikes on Fernando Mendoza against SEA: anytime TD at 13.0¢, 200+ pass yds at 38.5¢, 15+ rush yds at 41.0¢, 25+ rush yds at 19.5¢. A Kalshi prop contract pays $1 if the threshold is cleared, so the price in cents is the market's implied probability. Every strike on this page carries the book consensus at the same threshold beside it.
Does Fernando Mendoza have Kalshi markets this week?
Yes. As of Nov 11, 3:20 AM ET, Kalshi lists 12 player-prop strikes on Fernando Mendoza for Week 10 against SEA. Every one is on this page with the Kalshi price in cents, the book consensus at the same threshold, and our model's read where it is unlocked.
How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?
A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a book price has to be de-vigged first.
More NFL Markets
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- NFL Week 11 predictions — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
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- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or game-winner price into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
Kalshi prices are in cents and carry the clock they were read on; our model read is a probability, not a prediction. Contracts can settle at $0 — trade responsibly. Every published call is graded here.